Long-range drone strikes weakening Russia’s combat ability, senior Ukrainian commander says
Russia is finding it “significantly” harder to conduct combat operations against Ukraine because of a rise in Ukrainian long-range drone strikes on Russian weapons supplies, ammunition depots and fuel refineries, a senior commander has said.
Brigadier General Yuriy Shchygol signalled these attacks would grow, revealing that his country plans to more than quadruple the production rate of deep strike drones – with a range of hundreds of miles – to more than 2,000 aircraft a month.
Brigadier General Yuriy Shchygol
Ukraine has been intensifying the tempo of its long-range drone strikes against targets inside Russia and Russian-occupied territory since late December – demonstrating what defence sources say is a world-leading capability that the Kremlin is struggling to counter.
The mission is an example of how Kyiv remains focused on combatting Moscow’s invasion even as world attention fixates on the fallout from a row between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy, as well as efforts by Europe to prepare a plan for peace.
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The comments by Brigadier Shchygol, who coordinates long-range drone strikes for Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence, offer a rare insight into the impact of the covert mission, which is also carried out by other branches of the Ukrainian military and security services.
“Russia is finding it increasingly difficult to conceal the extent of the damage,” the commander told Sky News in an interview at an undisclosed location in Kyiv.
“Headquarters have been hit, command structures weakened, and panic is spreading among their officers. Compared to a year ago, conducting full-scale combat operations has become significantly more challenging for [the Russians].”
Ukraine’s drone technology is considered to be world-leading
Sky News analysis of long-range drone strikes last month found that since December, there had been a ramping up of attacks against oil refineries in Russia that are used to fuel Russian tanks, jets and warships.
The analysis took in strikes officially confirmed by the Ukrainian armed forces. Brigadier Shchygol said “far more” drone attacks by Ukraine are not publicly confirmed.
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Ukraine ramps up attacks on oil depots
In a sign of the importance placed on long-range drones, he said Kyiv’s ability to manufacture this weapon has already jumped 100-fold since late 2022 to more than 500 per month.
While the officer would not say how many of these drones are then deployed on operations, he noted: “Nothing is just sitting in storage unused.”
He said recent operations had targeted several storage sites for Russia’s Iranian-designed Shahed one-way attack drones – used by the Russian armed forces against Ukrainian military and civilian targets.
More than 3,000 Shahed unmanned aerial vehicles were destroyed, according to the officer, who said: “As a result, their deployment of these drones has significantly decreased.”
Top secret drone mission
Sky News was given rare access to view a drone mission last week at a top-secret area.
As night fell, soldiers dressed in black – all members of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, an elite branch of the armed forces – prepared a line of about 10 drones.
Ukrainian drones being launched from a secret location
Each aircraft looked like a giant, grey metal mosquito.
The model is called “Lutti”, which is Ukrainian for “Fury”.
One by one, the drones burst into life, a propeller on the back whirring, pushing the aircraft forward at ever greater speed until it took off into the darkness.
We were told their target was an ammunition depot inside Russia.
Ukraine’s drone technology is considered to be world-leading
“Vector” spoke with a balaclava pulled up to his eyes to protect his identity
“Vector”, the commander on the ground, said his drones have a success rate of 70 to 80%.
He said Ukraine’s deep strike operations are “very important”.
“We change the war with these drones,” Vector said, speaking with a balaclava pulled up to his eyes to protect his identity.
“We can show [Russia] that the war can come in their houses, in their towns, cities.”
Russia’s sheer size makes it vulnerable
Using drones to strike targets hundreds of miles inside Russia is a complex challenge.
As night falls, members of an elite branch of Ukraine’s armed forces prepare a line of drones
But the sheer size of their enemy’s country works in Ukraine’s favour. The Russian military has weapons sites, ammunition storage areas, oil refineries and military headquarters dotted across its territory and lacks the air defences to be able to protect them all.
“We are reaching those targets. The slowing pace of their offensives – and in some places, even Ukrainian counter-offensives reclaiming territory – proves that our strikes are effective and growing more so,” Brigadier Shchygol said.
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In the room with Volodymyr Zelenskyy
A huge planning and reconnaissance effort underpins Ukraine’s long-range drone strikes.
It identifies targets and coordinates attacks between the different teams.
Varying volumes of drones are required for each mission – with some of the most complex strikes needing 100 unmanned aircraft.
From farm aircraft to fighter drone
The brigadier was speaking in a large room inside a disused building in Kyiv where five examples of different Ukrainian long-range drones were on display.
Brigadier Shchygol spoke to Sky News from a room where long-range drones were on display
They tell the story of the evolution of vital battlefield technology that began life on a farm.
The earliest form of the long-range drone looks like an ordinary light aircraft, with rectangular wings and two propellers. It is a lot smaller than a manned plane but much larger than a regular drone – probably about the length of a car, with a similar wingspan.
This model, fitted with a camera and a large fuel tank to fly for long periods, had been used for surveillance for agricultural purposes.
It was adapted after Russia’s full-scale invasion to conduct reconnaissance and even bombing missions.
The idea was then modified further to develop similar-sized drones that look more like fighter jets, with pointed noses and triangular wings. These were designed to hold explosives in the main body of the plane.
Some of the drones are remotely piloted, others work via autopilot.
Russia’s war has forced Ukraine to use technology and innovation to fight back against its far more powerful foe.
It has accelerated the use of autonomous machines in an irreversible transformation of the warzone that everyone is watching and learning from.
Brigadier Shchygol said: “Right now, Ukraine’s battlefield experience is essentially a manual for the world.”
World
Terror group supporters posted on TikTok, YouTube and Google from site targeted in Indian airstrikes
Social media accounts expressing support for a Pakistan-based terror group linked to al Qaeda appear to have posted recent videos from a Pakistan mosque targeted by Indian airstrikes.
Sky News has found videos posted on TikTok, YouTube and Google that appear to be filmed at the Markaz Taiba Mosque in Muridke. The captions and usernames contain expressions of support for the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and a group called ‘313’.
Sky News has found and geolocated multiple videos that appear to be filmed in the area where the captions include either or both ‘313’ and LeT.
Some of the videos show men in the streets with guns. Another post captioned a video of children doing martial arts training inside the targeted mosque, “we are little soldiers, and we fight the non-believers”.
The caption of the video reads ‘we are little soldiers, and we fight the non-believers’. It uses the hashtag ‘313’.
The caption uses the hashtag #جہاد313, which translates to ‘313’ jihad.
‘313’ appears to refer to the 313 Brigade, a proscribed terror organisation in Pakistan.
In a TikTok video posted to the Google page for Markaz Taiba Mosque in Muridke, a man can be seen walking along the street with a gun.
The account that posted that video wrote in their description, “Lashkar Taiba, Mujahid Force, ‘313’ and Markaz Taiba Muridke”, self-proclaiming their support for the groups.
This screenshot from the Google user labels Lashkar-e-Taiba and ‘313’ and includes the location name Muridke
India’s retaliatory strikes on Pakistani-adminstered Kashmir and Pakistan on 7 May came after a deadly attack in Indian-administered Kashmir last month.
Gunmen opened fire on tourists, killing 26 people and injuring dozens in a popular holiday spot near Pahalgam, Kashmir, on 22 April.
LeT were accused by India of involvement in the Pahalgam attack through their proxy the Resistance Front, which claimed responsibility for the attack.
LeT, which is designated as a terrorist organisation by the UN Security Council and the UK, focuses on fighting Indian control in Kashmir and is based in the Punjab region of Pakistan.
Pakistan denies allegations of terror camps operating in the country. This region has been in the control of the Punjabi government since 2010. The Punjab government condemned the Indian strikes, and declared a state of emergency across Punjab.
Muskan Sangwan, senior intelligence analyst at TRAC, a terrorism research and analysis consortium, told Sky News: “Brigade 313 is al Qaeda in Pakistan. It’s an umbrella organisation for members of several groups like Taliban, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, Haqqat ul-Jihad-al-Islami, Jaish-e Muhammad, Lashkar-e-Taiba, and Jundullah.”
Ms Sangwan explained that ‘313’ refers to the number of companions said to have fought with the Prophet Mohammed in the Battle of Badr.
TRAC have seen a recent uptick in TikTok videos and other social media posts that refer to ‘313’.
Many of the accounts are linked to each other.
Ms Sangwan said: “They [the TikTok users] mostly use ‘313’ as a hashtag… trying to push that hashtag to as many people it can reach on social media.”
Sky News sought to verify the location by comparing before and after videos from the strike location, and using the video released by the Indian army conducting the strike.
One video showing damage at the strike location was posted by a user with 313 in their TikTok username.
The TikTok account that posted video footage of the destruction in Muridke has 313 in the username
Below is satellite imagery that shows the destruction of the site.
Satellite imagery shows Markaz Taiba Mosque after the strike on 7 May. Credit: Maxar
In one TikTok, the video is captioned “bring your arms and ammunition and go to war”. The text on the screen of the TikTok is ‘313’ and he is carrying a gun.
The group are comfortable with having an online presence. On the Google tag for Markaz Taiba Mosque in Muridke, men pose for a group photo. Almost all the people in the photo have used ‘313’ on TikTok.
Ms Sangwan explained: “With these people from Muridke, pushing this propaganda on social media would generate a lot of significance in terms of recruitment and in terms of gaining support from local people and from other people.”
Sky News’ Asia correspondent Cordelia Lynch has reported on the ground in Muridke.
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Anger in Pakistan after India strikes
India says it struck Markaz Taiba, a site in Muridke about 15 miles (25km) from the border, which has long been claimed to be a terrorist training site associated with LeT.
MEMRI, a US-based research group that monitors terrorist threats, told Sky News: “It has been known for decades that Lashkar-e-Taiba has its headquarters in Muridke.”
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Sky News contacted the Pakistan Ministry of Defence for comment. Khawaja Asif, Pakistan’s defence minister, told Sky News: “This appears to be a random video with background music added later – consistent with how TikTok trends often function. If this is to be considered credible evidence, we could produce millions of similar clips ourselves.”
Mr Asif also said that any suggestion that the mosque was used as a base by terrorists was a “completely false, social media made up hoax”.
On 7 May, after the strikes in Pakistan, the Indian subcontinent branch of al Qaeda issued a statement condemning India’s actions and encouraging its supporters to wage jihad against India.
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said his country is “ready to meet” Russian representatives after Vladimir Putin suggested peace talks in Istanbul from Thursday.
Russia‘s president put forward the proposal as European leaders including Sir Keir Starmer threatened him with fresh sanctions if Russia failed to comply with an unconditional 30-day ceasefire starting on Monday.
Reacting to Mr Putin’s suggestion, US President Donald Trump said it was “a potentially great day for Russia and Ukraine” and he would “work with both sides to make sure it happens”.
Mr Zelenskyy has also welcomed the proposal, but reiterated his call for a ceasefire.
He said: “It is a positive sign that the Russians have finally begun to consider ending the war. The entire world has been waiting for this for a very long time. And the very first step in truly ending any war is a ceasefire.
“There is no point in continuing the killing even for a single day. We expect Russia to confirm a ceasefire – full, lasting, and reliable – starting tomorrow, May 12th, and Ukraine is ready to meet.”
On Saturday, the prime minister met the Ukrainian president alongside French President Emmanuel Macron, recently elected German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in Kyiv.
Announcing the 30-day ceasefire proposal, the leaders said they had secured the backing of Mr Trump after briefing him on the progress made on the so-called “coalition of the willing” plans in a 20-minute phone call.
What Trump does next is crucial
Russian President Vladimir Putin is playing for time and may have been caught on the hop by European leaders, backed by US President Donald Trump, demanding a 30-day ceasefire during their visit to Kyiv yesterday.
Russia’s proposal of talks in Istanbul on Thursday appears hurriedly conceived, announced as it was in the early hours of the morning by Putin.
There is an added symbolism to his suggestion of Istanbul as a venue. Russia has long blamed Ukraine for walking away from peace talks in the same city in 2022.
The key thing is that diplomatic movement of sorts is happening.
Ukraine and its European colleagues want to capitalise on Trump’s renewed enthusiasm for a ceasefire and his potential scepticism of how ready Putin actually is to make peace.
The Europeans will hope this isn’t drawn into a protracted period of negotiations, or simply talking about the idea of negotiations.
What President Trump does next will be crucial.
Speaking at the Kremlin in the early hours of Sunday, Mr Putin did not directly address the proposal but instead offered to restart peace talks Russia and Ukraine held in 2022.
“We propose the Kyiv authorities resume the negotiations they interrupted at the end of 2022… to resume direct negotiations… without any preconditions… to begin without delay next Thursday 15 May in Istanbul,” he said.
Speaking to Sky News Russia correspondent Ivor Bennett after the statement, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Moscow does not “share the view of Starmer”.
“We think that the seriousness is to propose negotiations,” he said, denying the move was a delaying tactic.
Mr Peskov said there had to be negotiations to find a way for a ceasefire, adding: “A simplistic approach to a ceasefire is inappropriate.”
European leaders including Volodymyr Zelenskyy hold call with Donald Trump. Pic: Number 10
Russia’s own unilateral three-day ceasefire, declared for the 80th anniversary of victory over Nazi Germany, expired on Saturday, and Ukraine said Russian forces have repeatedly violated it.
After the summit in Kyiv, Sir Keir said: “All of us here, together with the US, are calling Putin out.
“So we are clear, all five leaders here – all the leaders of the meeting we just had with the coalition of the willing – an unconditional ceasefire, rejecting Putin’s conditions, and clear that if he turns his back on peace, we will respond.
“Working with President Trump, with all our partners, we will ramp up sanctions and increase our military aid for Ukraine’s defence to pressure Russia back to the table.”
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During Mr Putin’s statement on Sunday, he insisted he would support peace talks, adding: “We are committed to serious negotiations with Ukraine.”
He told reporters: “Their purpose is to eliminate the root causes of the conflict, to establish a long-term, lasting peace.
“We do not rule out that during these negotiations it will be possible to agree on some new truces, a new ceasefire.”
Read more:
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Ukraine and Russia argue over ceasefire breaches
Listen to The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim every Wednesday
Responding to Mr Putin’s proposal, Mr Macron said the Russian leader was “looking for a way forward, but he still has a desire to buy time”.
Mr Putin’s proposed negotiations are “a first step, but they are not sufficient,” he told French broadcaster BFM.
“An unconditional ceasefire is not preceded by negotiations, by definition.”
World
Terror group supporters posted on TikTok, YouTube and Google from site targeted in Indian airstrikes
Social media accounts expressing support for a Pakistan-based terror group linked to al Qaeda appear to have posted recent videos from a Pakistan mosque targeted by Indian airstrikes.
Sky News has found videos posted on TikTok, YouTube and Google that appear to be filmed at the Markaz Taiba Mosque in Muridke. The captions and usernames contain expressions of support for the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and a group called ‘313’.
Sky News has found and geolocated multiple videos that appear to be filmed in the area where the captions include either or both ‘313’ and LeT.
Some of the videos show men in the streets with guns. Another post captioned a video of children doing martial arts training inside the targeted mosque, “we are little soldiers, and we fight the non-believers”.
The caption of the video reads ‘we are little soldiers, and we fight the non-believers’. It uses the hashtag ‘313’.
The caption uses the hashtag #جہاد313, which translates to ‘313’ jihad.
‘313’ appears to refer to the 313 Brigade, a proscribed terror organisation in Pakistan.
In a TikTok video posted to the Google page for Markaz Taiba Mosque in Muridke, a man can be seen walking along the street with a gun.
The account that posted that video wrote in their description, “Lashkar Taiba, Mujahid Force, ‘313’ and Markaz Taiba Muridke”, self-proclaiming their support for the groups.
This screenshot from the Google user labels Lashkar-e-Taiba and ‘313’ and includes the location name Muridke
India’s retaliatory strikes on Pakistani-adminstered Kashmir and Pakistan on 7 May came after a deadly attack in Indian-administered Kashmir last month.
Gunmen opened fire on tourists, killing 26 people and injuring dozens in a popular holiday spot near Pahalgam, Kashmir, on 22 April.
LeT were accused by India of involvement in the Pahalgam attack through their proxy the Resistance Front, which claimed responsibility for the attack.
LeT, which is designated as a terrorist organisation by the UN Security Council and the UK, focuses on fighting Indian control in Kashmir and is based in the Punjab region of Pakistan.
Pakistan denies allegations of terror camps operating in the country. This region has been in the control of the Punjabi government since 2010. The Punjab government condemned the Indian strikes, and declared a state of emergency across Punjab.
Muskan Sangwan, senior intelligence analyst at TRAC, a terrorism research and analysis consortium, told Sky News: “Brigade 313 is al Qaeda in Pakistan. It’s an umbrella organisation for members of several groups like Taliban, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, Haqqat ul-Jihad-al-Islami, Jaish-e Muhammad, Lashkar-e-Taiba, and Jundullah.”
Ms Sangwan explained that ‘313’ refers to the number of companions said to have fought with the Prophet Mohammed in the Battle of Badr.
TRAC have seen a recent uptick in TikTok videos and other social media posts that refer to ‘313’.
Many of the accounts are linked to each other.
Ms Sangwan said: “They [the TikTok users] mostly use ‘313’ as a hashtag… trying to push that hashtag to as many people it can reach on social media.”
Sky News sought to verify the location by comparing before and after videos from the strike location, and using the video released by the Indian army conducting the strike.
One video showing damage at the strike location was posted by a user with 313 in their TikTok username.
The TikTok account that posted video footage of the destruction in Muridke has 313 in the username
Below is satellite imagery that shows the destruction of the site.
Satellite imagery shows Markaz Taiba Mosque after the strike on 7 May. Credit: Maxar
In one TikTok, the video is captioned “bring your arms and ammunition and go to war”. The text on the screen of the TikTok is ‘313’ and he is carrying a gun.
The group are comfortable with having an online presence. On the Google tag for Markaz Taiba Mosque in Muridke, men pose for a group photo. Almost all the people in the photo have used ‘313’ on TikTok.
Ms Sangwan explained: “With these people from Muridke, pushing this propaganda on social media would generate a lot of significance in terms of recruitment and in terms of gaining support from local people and from other people.”
Sky News’ Asia correspondent Cordelia Lynch has reported on the ground in Muridke.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Anger in Pakistan after India strikes
India says it struck Markaz Taiba, a site in Muridke about 15 miles (25km) from the border, which has long been claimed to be a terrorist training site associated with LeT.
MEMRI, a US-based research group that monitors terrorist threats, told Sky News: “It has been known for decades that Lashkar-e-Taiba has its headquarters in Muridke.”
Listen to The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim every Wednesday
Sky News contacted the Pakistan Ministry of Defence for comment. Khawaja Asif, Pakistan’s defence minister, told Sky News: “This appears to be a random video with background music added later – consistent with how TikTok trends often function. If this is to be considered credible evidence, we could produce millions of similar clips ourselves.”
Mr Asif also said that any suggestion that the mosque was used as a base by terrorists was a “completely false, social media made up hoax”.
On 7 May, after the strikes in Pakistan, the Indian subcontinent branch of al Qaeda issued a statement condemning India’s actions and encouraging its supporters to wage jihad against India.
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
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