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From midnight on Monday, Donald Trump’s tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China came into effect. But what are they and what do they mean for the UK?

The second-time president claims the tariffs – taxes on goods imported into the US – will help reduce illegal migration and the smuggling of the synthetic opioid fentanyl to the US.

In a White House speech on Monday, Mr Trump confirmed 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada and the doubling of tariffs on Chinese imports – from 10% to 20%. Canadian energy will be levied at 10%, he added.

China responded immediately, with 15% taxes on food and agricultural products it sends to the US – worth around $21bn (£16.5bn).

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau also retaliated with extra tariffs worth $100bn (£78.7bn) over the next 21 days. Mexico has not yet announced any countermeasures.

Both Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and Mr Trudeau have promised extra troops at their US borders to combat illegal migration, in a bid to stop an all-out trade war with Mr Trump.

But he appears determined to go even further, targeting other countries, including those in the European Union, which he claims was created to “screw” the US.

Will Trump target UK with tariffs?

No new US tariffs have been announced on the UK.

And Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer’s successful White House visit raised hopes Britain could avoid Mr Trump’s recent wave of them.

“I think there’s a very good chance that in the case of these two great, friendly countries, I think we could very well end up with a real trade deal where the tariffs wouldn’t be necessary. We’ll see,” the president told reporters afterwards.

Mr Trump is largely concerned with trade deficits – when you import more goods from another country than you send there in return.

The US does not have a trade deficit with Britain – so UK ministers have previously suggested this could be good news for avoiding new levies.

Ed Conway analysis:
How UK could avoid Trump’s trade war by accident

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How Trump’s tariffs will affect Britain

Why tariffs could cost you – even if Trump spares UK

But even if no tariffs are put on UK exports, consumers will still be impacted by the wider trade war.

Mr Trump’s Monday announcement sparked an immediate downturn in US and European stocks, with share prices for car manufacturers, including General Motors, which produces a lot of its trucks in Mexico, falling in particular.

Economists believe that tariffs will raise costs in the US, sparking a wave of inflation that will keep interest rates higher for longer. The US central bank, the Federal Reserve, is mandated to act to bring inflation down.

More expensive borrowing and costlier goods and services could bring about an economic downturn in the US, the world’s largest economy – and global movements could hit the UK.

Forecasts from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) predict lower UK economic growth due to higher global interest rates.

It estimates UK GDP (a measure of everything produced in the economy) could be between 2.5% and 3% lower over five years and 0.7% lower this year.

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Some economists argue, though, that the UK might not be hurt too badly – even if Mr Trump imposes tariffs on British goods.

The UK doesn’t send a lot of goods to the US, exporting its banking and consulting services to them instead, which do not tend to be subject to tariffs.

However, the Centre for Inclusive Trade Policy thinktank said a 20% across-the-board tariff, impacting the UK, could lead to a £22bn reduction in exports in the UK’s US exports, with the hardest-hit sectors including fishing and mining.

How will it impact US consumers?

The flags of Mexico, the United States and Canada. Pic: Reuters
Image:
The flags of Mexico, the United States and Canada. Pic: Reuters

Although the Trump administration said the 10% Canadian energy tariff will boost domestic energy production, there are likely to be wide-ranging negative consequences for the US consumer.

Economists argue supply chains will be disrupted and businesses will suffer increased costs – leading to an overall rise in prices.

Both Mexico and Canada rely heavily on their imports and exports, which make up around 70% of their Gross Domestic Products (GDPs), putting them at even greater risk from the new tariffs.

China only relies on trade for 37% of its economy, having made a concerted effort to ramp up domestic production, making it relatively less vulnerable.

Avocados – and other fruit and veg

Avocados from Mexico at a store in the US. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Avocados from Mexico at a store in the US. Pic: Reuters

The US imports between half and 60% of its fresh produce from Mexico – and 80% of its avocados, according to figures from the US Department of Agriculture.

Canada also supplies a lot of the US’s fruit and vegetables, which are mainly grown in greenhouses on the other side of the US border.

This means new tariffs will quickly be passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices.

The US still grows a considerable amount of its own produce, however, so the changes could boost domestic production.

But economists warn an overreliance on domestic goods will see those suppliers increase their prices too.

Petrol and oil prices

Oil and gas prices are likely to be impacted – as Canada provides around 60% of US crude oil imports and Mexico roughly 10%.

According to the US Energy Information Administration, the US received around 4.6 million barrels of oil a day from Canada last year – and 563,000 from Mexico.

Most US oil refineries are designed specifically to process Canadian products, which would make changing supply sources complex and costly.

Oil tariffs could see an increase in fuel prices of up to 50 cents (40p) a gallon, economists have predicted.

Cars and vehicle parts

General Motors plant in Ramos Arizpe, Mexico. Pic: Reuters
Image:
General Motors plant in Ramos Arizpe, Mexico. Pic: Reuters

The US car industry is a delicate mix of foreign and domestic manufacturers.

The supply chain is so complex that car parts and half-finished vehicles can sometimes cross the US-Mexico border several times before they are ready for the showroom.

If this continues, the parts will be taxed every time they move countries, which will lead to an even bigger increase in prices.

As a result, Gustavo Flores-Macias, public policy professor at Cornell University, says “the automobile sector, in particular, is likely to see considerable negative consequences”.

To mitigate this, General Motors has said it will try to rush through Mexican and Canadian exports – while brainstorming how to relocate manufacturing to the US.

Mr Trump said of this dilemma on Monday: “They’re going to have a tariff. So what they have to do is build their car plants, frankly, and other things in the United States, in which case they have no tariffs.”

Electronic goods

When Mr Trump imposed a 50% tariff on imported washing machines during his first term in 2018, prices suffered for years afterwards.

China produces a lot of the world’s consumer electronics – and smartphones and computers specifically – so tariffs are likely to have a similar effect on those devices.

The Biden administration tried to legislate to promote domestic production of semiconductors (microchips needed for all smart devices) – but for now, the US is still heavily reliant on China for its personal electronics.

This will mean an increase in prices for electronics consumers globally – unless tech companies can relocate their operations away from Beijing.

Boost for the steel industry

The sector that could actually benefit from the Trump tariffs is the steel and aluminium industry.

It has long been lobbying the US government to impose levies on foreign suppliers – claiming they are dominating the market and leaving domestic factories without enough business and at risk of closure.

Steel imports increasing in price could therefore promote domestic production – and possibly save some of the plants.

But when Mr Trump increased steel tariffs during his first term, prices also increased – which business leaders said forced them to pass on costs and left them struggling to complete construction projects on budget.

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Octopus Energy sparks £10bn demerger of tech arm Kraken

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Octopus Energy sparks £10bn demerger of tech arm Kraken

Octopus Energy Group, Britain’s largest residential gas and electricity supplier, is plotting a £10bn demerger of its technology arm that would reinforce its status as one of the country’s most valuable private companies.

Sky News can exclusively reveal that Octopus Energy is close to hiring investment bankers to help formally separate Kraken Technologies from the rest of the group.

The demerger, which would be expected to take place in the next 12 months, would see Octopus Energy’s existing investors given shares in the newly independent Kraken business.

A minority stake in Kraken of up to 20% is expected to be sold to external shareholders in order to help validate the technology platform’s valuation, according to insiders.

One banking source said that Kraken could be valued at as much as $14bn (£10.25bn) in a forthcoming demerger.

Citi, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley are among the investment banks invited to pitch for the demerger mandate in recent weeks.

A deal will augment Octopus Energy chief executive Greg Jackson’s paper fortune, and underline his success at building a globally significant British-based company over the last decade.

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Octopus Energy now has 7.5m retail customers in Britain, following its 2022 rescue of the collapsed energy supplier Bulb, and the subsequent acquisition of Shell’s home energy business.

In January, it announced that it had become the country’s biggest supplier – surpassing Centrica-owned British Gas – with a 24% market share.

It also has a further 2.5m customers outside the UK.

Octopus energy wind turbine. Pic suppled by Octopus.
Image:
Kraken is an operating system licensed to other energy providers, water companies and telecoms suppliers. Pic: Octopus

Sources said a £10bn valuation of Kraken would now imply that the whole group, including the retail supply business, was worth in the region of £15bn or more.

That would be double its valuation of just over a year ago, when the company announced that it had secured new backing from funds Galvanize Climate Solutions and Lightrock.

Shortly before that, former US vice president Al Gore’s firm, Generation Investment Management, and the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board increased their stakes in Octopus Energy in a transaction valuing the company at $9bn (£7.2bn).

Kraken is an operating system which is licensed to other energy providers, water companies and telecoms suppliers.

It connects all parts of the energy system, including customer billing and the flexible management of renewable generation and energy devices such as heat pumps and electric vehicle batteries.

The business also unlocks smart grids which enable people to use more renewable energy when there is an abundant supply of it.

In the UK, its platform is licensed to Octopus Energy’s rivals EON and EDF Energy, as well as the water company Severn Trent and broadband provider Cuckoo.

Overseas, Kraken serves Origin Energy in Australia, Japan’s Tokyo Gas and Plentitude in countries including France and Greece.

Its biggest coup came recently, when it struck a deal with National Grid in the US to serve 6.5m customers in New York and Massachusetts.

Sources said other major licensing agreements in the US were expected to be struck in the coming months.

Kraken, which is chaired by Gavin Patterson, the former BT Group chief executive, is now contracted to more than 70m customer accounts globally – putting it easily on track to hit a target of 100m by 2027.

Earlier this year, Mr Jackson said that target now risked being seen as “embarrassingly unambitious”.

Last July, Kraken recruited Amir Orad, a former boss of NICE Actimize, a US-listed provider of enterprise software to global banks and Fortune 500 companies, as its first chief executive.

A demerger of Kraken will trigger speculation about an eventual public market listing of the business.

Its growth in the US, and the relative public market valuations of technology companies in New York and London, may put the UK at a disadvantage when Kraken eventually considers where to list.

One key advantage of demerging Kraken from the rest of Octopus Energy Group would be to remove the perception of a conflict of interest among potential customers of the technology platform.

A source said the unified corporate ownership of both businesses had acted as a deterrent to some energy suppliers.

Kraken has also diversified beyond the energy sector, and earlier this year joined a consortium which was exploring a takeover bid for stricken Thames Water.

This weekend, Octopus Energy declined to comment.

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Ryanair urges EU chief to ‘quit’ over air traffic strike disruption

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Ryanair urges EU chief to 'quit' over air traffic strike disruption

The boss of Ryanair has told Sky News the president of the European Commission should “quit” if she can’t stop disruption caused by repeated French air traffic control strikes.

Michael O’Leary, the group chief executive of Europe’s largest airline by passenger numbers, said in an interview with Business Live that Ursula von der Leyen had failed to get to grips, at an EU level, with interruption to overflights following several recent disputes in France.

The latest action began on Thursday and is due to conclude later today, forcing thousands of flights to be delayed and cancelled through French airspace closures.

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Mr O’Leary told presenter Darren McCaffrey that French domestic flights were given priority during ATC strikes and other nations, including Italy and Greece, had solved the problem through minimum service legislation.

He claimed that the vast majority of flights, cancelled over two days of action that began on Thursday, would have been able to operate under similar rules.

Mr O’Leary said of the EU’s role: “We continue to call on Ursula von der Leyen – why are you not protecting these overflights, why is the single market for air travel being disrupted by a tiny number of French air traffic controllers?

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File photo dated 02/09/22 of a Ryanair Boeing 737-8AS passenger airliner comes in to land at Stansted Airport in Essex. Ryanair has revealed around 63,000 of its passengers saw their flights cancelled during last week's air traffic control failure which caused widespread disruption across the industry and left thousands of passengers stranded overseas. In its August traffic update, the Irish carrier said more than 350 of its flights were cancelled on August 28 and 29 due to the air traffic contr
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Ryanair has cancelled more than 400 flights over two days due to the action in France. File pic: PA

“All we get is a shrug of their shoulders and ‘there’s nothing we can do’. We point out, there is.”

He added: “We are calling on Ursula von der Leyen, who preaches about competitiveness and reforming Europe, if you’re not willing to protect or fix overflights then quit and let somebody more effective do the job.”

The strike is estimated, by the Airlines for Europe lobby group to have led to at least 1,500 cancelled flights, leaving 300,000 travellers unable to make their journeys.

Ryanair chief executive Michael O'Leary speaks to journalists during a press conference at The Alex Hotel in Dublin. Picture date: Thursday October 3, 2024.
Image:
Michael O’Leary believes the EU can take action on competition grounds. Pic: PA

Ryanair itself had axed more than 400 flights so far, Mr O’Leary said. Rival easyJet said on Thursday that it had cancelled 274 services over the two days.

The beginning of July marks the start of the European summer holiday season.

The French civil aviation agency DGAC had already told airlines to cancel 40% of flights covering the three main Paris airports on Friday ahead of the walkout – a dispute over staffing levels and equipment quality.

Mr O’Leary described those safety issues as “nonsense” and said twhile the controllers had a right to strike, they did not have the right to close the sky.

DGAC has warned of delays and further severe disruption heading into the weekend.

Many planes and crews will be out of position.

Mr O’Leary is not alone in expressing his frustration.

The French transport minister Philippe Tabarot has denounced the action and the reasons for it.

“The idea is to disturb as many people as possible,” he said in an interview with CNews.

Passengers are being advised that if your flight is cancelled, the airline must either give you a refund or book you on an alternative flight.

If you have booked a return flight and the outbound leg is cancelled, you can claim the full cost of the return ticket back from your airline.

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CBI kicks off search for successor to ‘saviour’ Soames

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CBI kicks off search for successor to 'saviour' Soames

The CBI has begun a search for a successor to Rupert Soames, its chairman, as it continues its recovery from the crisis which brought it to the brink of collapse in 2023.

Sky News has learnt that the business lobbying group’s nominations committee has engaged headhunters to assist with a hunt for its next corporate figurehead.

Mr Soames, the grandson of Sir Winston Churchill, was recruited by the CBI in late 2023 with the organisation lurching towards insolvency after an exodus of members.

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The group’s handling of a sexual misconduct scandal saw it forced to secure emergency funding from a group of banks, even as it was frozen out of meetings with government ministers.

One prominent CBI member described Mr Soames on Thursday as the group’s “saviour”.

“Without his ability to bring members back, the organisation wouldn’t exist today,” they claimed.

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Rupert Soames
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Rupert Soames. Pic: Reuters

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Mr Soames and Rain Newton-Smith, the CBI chief executive, have partly restored its influence in Whitehall, although many doubt that it will ever be able to credibly reclaim its former status as ‘the voice of British business’.

Its next chair, who is also likely to be drawn from a leading listed company boardroom, will take over from Mr Soames early next year.

Egon Zehnder International is handling the search for the CBI.

“The CBI chair’s term typically runs for two years and Rupert Soames will end his term in early 2026,” a CBI spokesperson said.

“In line with good governance, we have begun the search for a successor to ensure continuity and a smooth transition.”

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