From midnight on Monday, Donald Trump’s tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China came into effect. But what are they and what do they mean for the UK?
The second-time president claims the tariffs – taxes on goods imported into the US – will help reduce illegal migration and the smuggling of the synthetic opioid fentanyl to the US.
In a White House speech on Monday, Mr Trump confirmed 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada and the doubling of tariffs on Chinese imports – from 10% to 20%. Canadian energy will be levied at 10%, he added.
China responded immediately, with 15% taxes on food and agricultural products it sends to the US – worth around $21bn (£16.5bn).
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau also retaliated with extra tariffs worth $100bn (£78.7bn) over the next 21 days. Mexico has not yet announced any countermeasures.
Both Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and Mr Trudeau have promised extra troops at their US borders to combat illegal migration, in a bid to stop an all-out trade war with Mr Trump.
But he appears determined to go even further, targeting other countries, including those in the European Union, which he claims was created to “screw” the US.
Will Trump target UK with tariffs?
No new US tariffs have been announced on the UK.
And Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer’s successful White House visit raised hopes Britain could avoid Mr Trump’s recent wave of them.
“I think there’s a very good chance that in the case of these two great, friendly countries, I think we could very well end up with a real trade deal where the tariffs wouldn’t be necessary. We’ll see,” the president told reporters afterwards.
Mr Trump is largely concerned with trade deficits – when you import more goods from another country than you send there in return.
The US does not have a trade deficit with Britain – so UK ministers have previously suggested this could be good news for avoiding new levies.
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How Trump’s tariffs will affect Britain
Why tariffs could cost you – even if Trump spares UK
But even if no tariffs are put on UK exports, consumers will still be impacted by the wider trade war.
Mr Trump’s Monday announcement sparked an immediate downturn in US and European stocks, with share prices for car manufacturers, including General Motors, which produces a lot of its trucks in Mexico, falling in particular.
Economists believe that tariffs will raise costs in the US, sparking a wave of inflation that will keep interest rates higher for longer. The US central bank, the Federal Reserve, is mandated to act to bring inflation down.
More expensive borrowing and costlier goods and services could bring about an economic downturn in the US, the world’s largest economy – and global movements could hit the UK.
Forecasts from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) predict lower UK economic growth due to higher global interest rates.
It estimates UK GDP (a measure of everything produced in the economy) could be between 2.5% and 3% lower over five years and 0.7% lower this year.
Some economists argue, though, that the UK might not be hurt too badly – even if Mr Trump imposes tariffs on British goods.
The UK doesn’t send a lot of goods to the US, exporting its banking and consulting services to them instead, which do not tend to be subject to tariffs.
However, the Centre for Inclusive Trade Policy thinktank said a 20% across-the-board tariff, impacting the UK, could lead to a £22bn reduction in exports in the UK’s US exports, with the hardest-hit sectors including fishing and mining.
How will it impact US consumers?
Image: The flags of Mexico, the United States and Canada. Pic: Reuters
Although the Trump administration said the 10% Canadian energy tariff will boost domestic energy production, there are likely to be wide-ranging negative consequences for the US consumer.
Economists argue supply chains will be disrupted and businesses will suffer increased costs – leading to an overall rise in prices.
Both Mexico and Canada rely heavily on their imports and exports, which make up around 70% of their Gross Domestic Products (GDPs), putting them at even greater risk from the new tariffs.
China only relies on trade for 37% of its economy, having made a concerted effort to ramp up domestic production, making it relatively less vulnerable.
Avocados – and other fruit and veg
Image: Avocados from Mexico at a store in the US. Pic: Reuters
The US imports between half and 60% of its fresh produce from Mexico – and 80% of its avocados, according to figures from the US Department of Agriculture.
Canada also supplies a lot of the US’s fruit and vegetables, which are mainly grown in greenhouses on the other side of the US border.
This means new tariffs will quickly be passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices.
The US still grows a considerable amount of its own produce, however, so the changes could boost domestic production.
But economists warn an overreliance on domestic goods will see those suppliers increase their prices too.
Petrol and oil prices
Oil and gas prices are likely to be impacted – as Canada provides around 60% of US crude oil imports and Mexico roughly 10%.
According to the US Energy Information Administration, the US received around 4.6 million barrels of oil a day from Canada last year – and 563,000 from Mexico.
Most US oil refineries are designed specifically to process Canadian products, which would make changing supply sources complex and costly.
Oil tariffs could see an increase in fuel prices of up to 50 cents (40p) a gallon, economists have predicted.
Cars and vehicle parts
Image: General Motors plant in Ramos Arizpe, Mexico. Pic: Reuters
The US car industry is a delicate mix of foreign and domestic manufacturers.
The supply chain is so complex that car parts and half-finished vehicles can sometimes cross the US-Mexico border several times before they are ready for the showroom.
If this continues, the parts will be taxed every time they move countries, which will lead to an even bigger increase in prices.
As a result, Gustavo Flores-Macias, public policy professor at Cornell University, says “the automobile sector, in particular, is likely to see considerable negative consequences”.
To mitigate this, General Motors has said it will try to rush through Mexican and Canadian exports – while brainstorming how to relocate manufacturing to the US.
Mr Trump said of this dilemma on Monday: “They’re going to have a tariff. So what they have to do is build their car plants, frankly, and other things in the United States, in which case they have no tariffs.”
Electronic goods
When Mr Trump imposed a 50% tariff on imported washing machines during his first term in 2018, prices suffered for years afterwards.
China produces a lot of the world’s consumer electronics – and smartphones and computers specifically – so tariffs are likely to have a similar effect on those devices.
The Biden administration tried to legislate to promote domestic production of semiconductors (microchips needed for all smart devices) – but for now, the US is still heavily reliant on China for its personal electronics.
This will mean an increase in prices for electronics consumers globally – unless tech companies can relocate their operations away from Beijing.
Boost for the steel industry
The sector that could actually benefit from the Trump tariffs is the steel and aluminium industry.
It has long been lobbying the US government to impose levies on foreign suppliers – claiming they are dominating the market and leaving domestic factories without enough business and at risk of closure.
Steel imports increasing in price could therefore promote domestic production – and possibly save some of the plants.
But when Mr Trump increased steel tariffs during his first term, prices also increased – which business leaders said forced them to pass on costs and left them struggling to complete construction projects on budget.
All household energy suppliers in Britain should introduce at least one lower standing charge tariff by the end of January, according to plans set out by the industry regulator.
Ofgem, which has been considering complaints that low energy users are unfairly penalised by the fees, says it is aiming to give consumers more choice.
But it admitted that the move was unlikely to reduce overall bills as reduced standing charges would likely be reflected in higher charges for units of energy used.
Standing charges are fixed daily fees added to unit prices households pay for gas and electricity.
They are designed to cover costs of connecting to the energy system and investment in new infrastructure.
The latter element is being cited as an increasing threat to bill levels given the need to prepare the electricity network for the green energy future demanded by the government.
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Ofgem dropped initial plans that could have seen the charges ditched entirely for some energy deals, in return for customers paying higher unit prices instead.
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Tim Jarvis, director general of markets at Ofgem, said: “We’ve listened to thousands of consumers that wanted to see changes to the standing charge and taken action.
“We have carefully considered how we can offer more choice on how they pay these fixed costs, however we have taken care to ensure we don’t make some customers worse off.
“After examining all the options available to us, we believe that the right way forward is to require all major suppliers to offer at least one tariff with a lower standing charge.
“This will deliver the choice we know customers want, without having a detrimental impact on customers that have high energy needs.”
But he added: “We cannot remove these charges, we can only move costs around.
“These changes would give households the choice they have asked for, but it’s important that everyone carefully considers what’s right for them as these tariffs are unlikely to reduce bills on their own.”
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Government costs to raise bills from October
A final decision is due by the end of the year and could be introduced from late January.
It’s described by the regulator as a short-term measure as a review is carried out over how to best pay for the grid upgrades needed, including storage.
While high wholesale costs for gas have driven bills up sharply since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the costs of government policy are making up a greater proportion of bills for both households and businesses.
Emily Seymour, Which? Energy editor, said of the standing charges proposal: “For most of us, energy unit rates will make up the majority of our bill and standing charges will be a low proportion of the total.
“But for very low energy users, the daily standing charge will make up a larger amount of your bill and you could save money with one of these new tariffs as you will pay a lower standing charge every day.
“To figure out which type of energy tariff is best for them, people should look at their annual energy usage to see how much of it is typically made up of standing charges and how much is energy unit costs to see whether their usage is low enough to benefit from these new tariffs.”
Britain’s largest car manufacturer, Jaguar Land Rover (JLR), faces a prolonged shutdown of its global operations after the company announced an extension of the current closure, which began on 31 August, to at least 1 October.
The extension will cost JLR tens of millions of pounds a day in lost revenue, raise major concerns about companies and jobs in the supply chain, and raise further questions about the vulnerability of UK industry to cyber assaults.
A spokesperson said of the move: “We have made this decision to give clarity for the coming week as we build the timeline for the phased restart of our operations and continue our investigation.
“Our teams continue to work around the clock alongside cybersecurity specialists, the NCSC and law enforcement to ensure we restart in a safe and secure manner.
“Our focus remains on supporting our customers, suppliers, colleagues, and our retailers who remain open. We fully recognise this is a difficult time for all connected with JLR and we thank everyone for their continued support and patience.”
More than 33,000 people work directly for JLR in the UK, many of them employed on assembly lines in the West Midlands, the largest of which is in Solihull, and a plant at Halewood on Merseyside.
An estimated 200,000 more are employed by several hundred companies in the supply chain, who face a prolonged interruption to trade with what for many will be their largest client.
The “just-in-time” nature of automotive production means that many had little choice but to shut down immediately after JLR announced its closure, and no incentive to resume until it is clear when it will be back in production.
Industry sources estimate that around 25% of suppliers have already taken steps to pause production and lay off workers, many of them by “banking hours” they will have to work in future.
Another quarter are expected to make decisions this week, following JLR’s previous announcement that production would be paused until at least Wednesday.
JLR, which produces the Jaguar, Range Rover and Land Rover marques, has also been forced to halt production and assembly at facilities in China, Slovakia, India and Brazil after its IT systems were effectively disabled by the cyber attack.
JLR’s Solihull plant has been running short shifts with skeleton staff, with some teams understood to be carrying out basic maintenance while the production lines stand idle, including painting floors.
Among workers who had finished a half-shift last Friday, there was resignation to the uncertainty. “We have been told not to talk about it, and even if we could, we don’t know what’s happening,” said one.
Calls for support
The government has faced calls from unions to introduce a furlough-style scheme to protect jobs in the supply chain, but with JLR generating profits of £2.2bn last year, the company will face pressure to support its suppliers.
Industry body the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders said while government support should be the last resort, it should not be off the table.
“Whatever happens to JLR will reverberate through the supply chain,” chief executive Mike Hawes told Sky News.
“There are a huge number of suppliers in the UK, a mixture of large multinationals, but also a lot of small and medium-sized enterprises, and those are the ones who are most at risk. Some of them, maybe up to a quarter, have already had to lay off people. There’ll be another further 20-25% considering that in the next few days and weeks.
“It’s a very high bar for the government to intervene, but without the supply chain, you don’t have the major manufacturers and you don’t have an industry.”
What happened to the IT system?
JLR, owned by Indian conglomerate Tata, has provided no detail of the nature of the attack, but it is presumed to be a ransomware assault similar to that which debilitated Marks and Spencer and the Co-Op earlier this year.
As well as interrupting vehicle production, dealers have been unable to register vehicles or order spare parts, and even diagnostic software for analysing individual vehicles has been affected.
Last week, it said it was conducting a “forensic” investigation and considering how to stage the “controlled restart” of global production.
Speculation has centred on the vulnerability of IT support desks to surreptitious activity from hackers posing as employees to access passwords, as well as ‘phishing’ or other digital means of accessing systems.
In September 2023, JLR outsourced its IT and digital services to Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), also a Tata-owned company, intended, it said, to “transform, simplify, and help manage its digital estate, and build a new future-ready, strategic technology architecture”.
Resilience risks
Three months earlier, TCS extended an existing agreement with M&S, saying it would “improve resilience and pace of innovation, and drive sustainable growth.”
Officials from the National Cyber Security Centre are thought to be assisting JLR with their investigations, while officials and ministers from the Department for Business and International Trade have been kept informed of the situation.
Liam Byrne, a Birmingham MP and chair of the Business and Trade Select Committee, said the JLR closure raises concerns about the resilience of UK business.
“British business is now much more vulnerable for two reasons. One, many of these cyber threats have got bad states behind them. Russia, North Korea, Iran. These are serious players.
“Second, the attack surface that business is exposed to is now much bigger, because their digital operations are much bigger. They’ll be global organisations. They might have their IT outsourced in another country. So the vulnerability is now much greater than in the past.”
Rachel Reeves has been urged by a think tank to cut national insurance and increase income tax to create a “level playing field” and protect workers’ pay.
The Resolution Foundation said the chancellor should send a “decisive signal” that she will make “tough decisions” on tax.
Ms Reeves is expected to outline significant tax rises in the upcoming budget in November.
The Resolution Foundation has suggested these changes should include a 2p cut to national insurance as well as a 2p rise in income tax, which Adam Corlett, its principal economist, said “should form part of wider efforts to level the playing field on tax”.
The think tank, which used to be headed by Torsten Bell, a Labour MP who is now a key aide to Ms Reeves and a pensions minister, said the move would help to address “unfairness” in the tax system.
As more people pay income tax than national insurance, including pensioners and landlords, the think tank estimates the switch would go some way in raising the £20bn in tax it thinks would be needed by 2029/2030 to offset increased borrowing costs, flat growth and new spending commitments. Other estimates go as high as £51bn.
Image: Torsten Bell appearing on Sky News
‘Significant tax rises needed’
Another proposal by the think tank would see a gradual lowering of the threshold at which businesses pay VAT from £90,000 to £30,000, as this would help “promote fair competition” and raise £2bn by the end of the decade.
The Resolution Foundation also recommends increasing the tax on dividends, addressing a “worrying” growth in unpaid corporation tax from small businesses, applying a carbon charge to long-haul flights and shipping, and expanding taxation of sugar and salt.
“Policy U-turns, higher borrowing costs and lower productivity growth mean that the chancellor will need to act to avoid borrowing costs rising even further this autumn,” Mr Corlett said.
“Significant tax rises will be needed for the chancellor to send a clear signal that the UK’s public finances are under control.”
He added that while any tax rises are “likely to be painful”, Ms Reeves should do “all she can to avoid loading further pain onto workers’ pay packets”.
The government has repeatedly insisted it will keep its manifesto promise not to raise income tax, national insurance or VAT.
A Treasury spokesperson said in response to the think tank report it does “not comment on speculation around future changes to tax policy”.
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Chancellor urged to freeze alcohol duty
Meanwhile, Ms Reeves has been urged to freeze alcohol duty in the upcoming budget and not increase the rate of excise tax on alcohol until the end of the current parliament.
The Scotch Whisky Association (SWA), UK Spirits Alliance, Welsh Whisky Association, English Whisky Guild and Drinks Ireland said in an open letter that the current regime was “unfair” and has put a “strain” on members who are “struggling”.
The bodies are also urging Ms Reeves “to ensure there will be no further widening of the tax differential between spirits and other alcohol categories”.
A Treasury spokesperson said there will be no export duty, lower licensing fees, reduced tariffs, and a cap on corporation tax to make it easier for British distilleries to thrive.
Leave retailers alone, Reeves told
This comes as the British Retail Consortium (BRC) warned that food inflation will rise and remain above 5% into next year if the retail industry is hit by further tax rises in the November budget.
The BRC voiced concerns that around 4,000 large shops could experience a rise in their business rates if they are included in the government’s new surtax for properties with a rateable value – an estimation of how much it would cost to rent a property for a year – over £500,000, and this could lead to price rises for consumers.
Latest ONS figures put food inflation at 4.9%, the highest level since 2022/2023.
The Bank of England left the interest rate unchanged last week amid fears that rising food prices were putting mounting pressure on headline inflation.
“The biggest risk to food prices would be to include large shops – including supermarkets – in the new surtax on large properties,” BRC chief executive Helen Dickinson said.
She added: “Removing all shops from the surtax can be done without any cost to the taxpayer, and would demonstrate the chancellor’s commitment to bring down inflation.”