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Is this the art of the deal or the art of blackmail?

US President Donald Trump’s evening announcement to suspend US military aid to Ukraine came after a weekend through which the question had been: “He wouldn’t actually do that, would he?”

But given his actions over the past 43 days, his rhetoric during the campaign, and his truly transactional negotiating style, the answer was always to be “of course he would”.

It still doesn’t make the move any less dramatic.

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How Trump-Zelenskyy talks unravelled

As late as Monday afternoon in the White House, the president claimed he hadn’t discussed the prospect of cutting or pausing American military weapons shipments to Ukraine.

But it was clear his anger and animosity against Volodymyr Zelenskyy after the Friday showdown had been growing.

And just an hour or two later on Monday, after a meeting with his defence and security officials (who are all wholly aligned to his thinking, unlike those in his first administration) he had paused all military aid.

Sources both sides of the Atlantic have told me this is just the latest step in his game of brinkmanship. The White House emphasis on “pause” is important and hints at the moves they expect Zelenskyy now to make.

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President Trump is determined to pressure President Zelenskyy to sign his minerals deal – the first step in his peace plan, which he eventually expects will culminate in Ukraine and Russia around a negotiating table.

He has not explained quite how this happens or what concessions Russian President Vladimir Putin might be asked to make.

In the immediate term, Trump wants to be able to hail the mineral deal as a massive win for the American people as a material return for the money they sent to fund Ukraine’s war, and as the first step to peace in Ukraine.

So much of this is about a domestic trumpeting of his successes as he sees them. He had hoped to do that tonight at his address to a joint session of Congress.

Zelenskyy is resisting not because he doesn’t want peace but because he wants American commitments that it has his back militarily if he is to enter into peace talks with an unreliable Putin which will require him to make concessions.

He wants American security guarantees. All of Europe wants those, while committing to spending more on defence themselves. They are alarmed that Trump won’t give them yet.

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Can Europe save Ukraine?

Every European leader was privately appalled by Trump’s treatment of Zelenskyy last Friday. But some European diplomats have told me they think Zelenskyy took the bait when he could have reacted differently.

Zelenskyy’s friends in Europe may now be quietly telling him to shift position, mend the rift with Trump, sign his deal, commit to a ceasefire and then work, with them, to push Trump on the security guarantees.

In Trump’s brutally transactional world where, like it or not, he holds the cards, it may be the only way.

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Israel says 24 hostages alive in Gaza after Donald Trump’s comments alarm families

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Israel says 24 hostages alive in Gaza after Donald Trump's comments alarm families

Israel has said 24 hostages are alive in Gaza – after Donald Trump said there were 21.

The US president told reporters on Tuesday that three more hostages held by Hamas in Gaza had died – alarming their families.

In a post on X on Wednesday, Gal Hirsch, Israel’s coordinator for hostage issues, said the Palestinian militant group was holding 59 hostages of whom 24 were alive and 35 dead – figures unchanged since before Mr Trump‘s comments.

He said 54 of the 59 were Israeli citizens and five of them were foreign nationals.

“All families of the kidnapped are always updated with the information we have about their loved ones,” he said.

The group representing the families of hostages had asked the Israeli government to share any new information with them immediately following Mr Trump’s comments.

It argues that Israel should stop the fighting and negotiate the release of the remaining hostages.

“This is the most urgent and important national mission,” it said on a post on X.

Most of the hostages returned alive to Israel so far have been released as part of deals with Hamas during two temporary ceasefires in late 2023 and early 2025.

The most recent ceasefire that saw a pause in the fighting and the exchange of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners fell apart in March.

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Hamas took 251 hostages in its attacks on Israel on 7 October 2023 in which it killed 1,200 people.

Israel has responded with an air and ground assault on Gaza.

The Hamas-run Gaza health ministry says more than 52,000 Palestinians have been killed in Israeli attacks since the start of the war. Its figures do not differentiate between civilians and fighters.

Israel says its two war aims are to destroy Hamas and release the hostages.

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Israel announces plans for Gaza

On Monday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced an expansion of its offensive on Gaza – increasing its hold on the territory, for an indefinite amount of time.

The plan includes seizing Gaza, holding on to captured territories, forcibly displacing Palestinians to southern Gaza and taking control of aid distribution along with private security companies.

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Pakistan ‘attacked with missiles’ – as India says it targeted terrorist camps

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Pakistan 'attacked with missiles' - as India says it targeted terrorist camps

Pakistan says it has been targeted in a missile attack by India.

Three missiles were fired by India across the border into Pakistani-controlled territory, said Pakistani security officials.

They hit locations in Pakistan-administered Kashmir and in the country’s eastern Punjab province, according to officials.

The Indian defence ministry said it had launched Operation Sindoor as it struck “terrorist infrastructure” in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Jammu and Kashmir “from where terrorist attacks against India have been planned and directed”.

It said a total of nine sites were targeted.

A Pakistan military spokesman said the country will respond to the attacks.

Tensions between the nuclear-armed neighbours have been escalating following a militant gun attack in the disputed area of Kashmir last month.

At least 26 people, most of whom were Indian tourists, were shot dead by gunmen at a beauty spot near the resort town of Pahalgam in the Indian-controlled part of the region on 22 April.

India described the massacre as a “terror attack” and said it had “cross border” links, blaming Pakistan for backing it.

Pakistan denied any connection to the atrocity, which was claimed by a previously unknown militant group called the Kashmir Resistance.

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24 April: Pakistani minister warns ‘all-out war’ possible

Since the attack, Pakistan’s military has been on high alert after a cabinet minister said Islamabad had credible intelligence indicating that India could attack.

And Pakistan’s defence minister Khawaja Asif told Sky News’ The World With Yalda Hakim that the world should be “worried” about the prospect of a full-scale conflict involving the two nations.

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Friedrich Merz becomes Germany’s new chancellor after surviving historic vote failure

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Friedrich Merz becomes Germany's new chancellor after surviving historic vote failure

Friedrich Merz has become Germany’s new chancellor after winning a second vote in the country’s parliament.

He unexpectedly failed in the first parliamentary ballot on Tuesday morning – the first time a chancellor has failed to be elected at the first attempt since the Second World War.

Initially, needing a majority of 316 out of 630 votes in a secret ballot, he received 310 – falling short by just six votes. On the second ballot he managed 325.

It means Mr Merz, the leader of the country’s CDU/CSU conservatives, has become the 10th chancellor since the end of the Second World War.

Friedrich Merz during his swearing in ceremony. Pic: Reuters
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Friedrich Merz during his swearing in ceremony. Pic: Reuters

He had been expected to win comfortably after securing a coalition deal with the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD).

It meant at least 18 coalition MPs failed to back him in the first round of voting.

Announcing the second vote, Jens Spahn, the head of the Union bloc in parliament, said: “The whole of Europe, perhaps even the whole world, is watching this second round of elections.”

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Earlier, the leader of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, Alice Weidel, said on X that Mr Merz’s failure to secure a majority in the first round showed the “weak foundation” on which his coalition was built, adding that it had been “voted out by the voters”.

Mr Merz, 69, succeeds Olaf Scholz and has vowed to prioritise European unity and the continent’s security.

Germany's incoming Chancellor Friedrich Merz shakes hands with outgoing German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
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Mr Merz (R) shakes hands with outgoing chancellor Olaf Scholz (L). Pic: Reuters

His in-tray includes the Ukraine war and global tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy sent congratulations to Mr Merz and wished him “every success”.

The Ukrainian president added that the future of Europe was “at stake” and security will “depend on our unity”.

Mr Merz will also have to decide what to do about the AfD, which mainstream parties have refused to work with.

A “firewall” against collaborating with strongly right-wing parties has been in place since the end of the war.

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During federal elections in late February, the AfD scored its best-ever result while Olaf Scholz’s SPD dropped to about 16%.

The AfD is the second largest party in the lower house of the Bundestag and was officially designated as extremist last week by Germany’s domestic spy agency.

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