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Donald Trump has not ruled out a recession in the United States this year, saying the world’s largest economy is in “transition” through his trade war.

Financial markets have been spooked by the implications of his early trade fights involving the country’s nearest partners Canada and Mexico through on-off tariffs of up to 25%.

China has also been targeted and the European Union could be next, from 2 April, when Mr Trump has promised to ramp up his “America first” ambitions.

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The recession question first cropped up a week ago when a closely-watched economic indicator suggested the US economy was shrinking at its fastest pace since the COVID pandemic.

The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow model showed activity shrinking in the current first quarter, even before the president took office as the threat of tariffs loomed large.

Other indicators show signs for concern, with the US unemployment rate ticking up in February to 4.1%, according to official data on Friday.

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The stock market sell-off of last week left the broad S&P 500 trading at near six-month lows.

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‘Trump slump’ hits stock markets

The dollar has suffered too, with sterling and the euro gaining four cents since the end of February.

They are hardly the headlines Mr Trump wants.

He was asked directly in a Fox News interview on Sunday whether he was expecting a recession.

Crucially, he did not deny the possibility in his reply when he said: “I hate to predict things like that. There is a period of transition because what we’re doing is very big, we’re bringing wealth back to America. That’s a big thing. And there are always periods of – it takes a little time. It takes a little time.”

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Why are tariffs such a big deal?

“It will be great for us,” he said of the tariff regime’s domestic impact, which, he claims, will force more companies to hire more workers in the United States.

Both Canada and Mexico have been given two temporary reprieves, with companies operating cross-border complaining of chaos in terms of red tape and a lack of clarity on future tariffs.

Asked by Fox if he could give businesses some reassurance, Mr Trump added: “Well, I think so. But, you know, the tariffs could go up as time goes by and they may go up. And you know, I don’t know if it’s predictability, I think…”.

When told by the interviewer Maria Bartiromo that those remarks were not providing clarity, he responded: “No, I think they say that, you know, it sounds good to say. But for years, the globalists, the big globalists have been ripping off the United States; they’ve been taking money away from the United States. And all we’re doing is getting some of it back. And we’re going to treat our country fairly.”

The markets will study carefully the key US economic data ahead for signs of a protracted slowdown.

News that China returned to deflation in February helped keep sentiment on the back foot in Monday’s market moves as it showed underlying demand in its economy remained weak.

Most major equity markets in Asia and Europe were down, with futures suggesting that America would follow suit amid its own economic worries.

The country does not rely on the common international definition of a recession – two consecutive quarters of negative growth.

In the United States, only an independent committee of economists has the power to declare a recession.

Its deliberations expand beyond pure growth to include other facets such as the state of the employment market.

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Concierge firm founded by Queen’s nephew hunts buyer

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Concierge firm founded by Queen's nephew hunts buyer

Quintessentially, the luxury concierge service founded by the Queen’s nephew, is in talks to find a buyer months after it warned of “material uncertainty” over its future.

Sky News has learned that the company, which was set up by Sir Ben Elliot and his business partners in 1999, is working with advisers on a process aimed at finding a new owner or investors.

City sources said this weekend that Quintessentially was already in discussions with prospective buyers and was anticipating receipt of a number of firm offers.

Sir Ben, the former Conservative Party co-chairman under Boris Johnson, owns a significant minority stake in the company.

The Quintessentially group operates a number of businesses, although its core activity remains the provision of lifestyle support to high net worth individuals including celebrities, royalty, and leading businesspeople.

It also counts major companies among its clients and offers services such as organising private jet flights and performances by top musicians.

The sale process is being overseen by a firm called Beyond, although further details, including the price that the business might fetch, were unclear on Saturday.

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One insider said parties who had been contacted by Beyond were being offered the option to buy a controlling interest in Quintessentially.

This could be implemented through a combination of the repayment of outstanding loans, an injection of new funding into the business, and the purchase of existing shareholders’ interests, they added.

Quintessentially’s founders, including Sir Ben, are thought to be keen to retain an equity interest in the company after any deal.

In January 2022, newspaper reports suggested that Quintessentially had been put up for sale with a valuation of £140m.

Deloitte, the accountancy firm, was charged with finding a buyer at the time but a transaction failed to materialise.

Sir Ben, who was knighted in Mr Johnson’s resignation honours list, turned to one of Quintessentially’s shareholders for financial support during the pandemic.

World Fuel Services, an energy and aviation services company, is owed £15.5m as well as £3.5m in accrued interest, according to one person close to the process.

The loan is said to include a warrant to convert it into equity upon repayment.

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Quintessentially does not disclose the number or identities of many of its clients, although it said in annual accounts filed at Companies House in January that it had increased turnover to £29.6m in the year to 30 April 2024.

The accounts suggested the company was seeing growth in demand from clients internationally.

“During the last year, we have not only renewed important corporate contracts like Mastercard, but have also expanded by adding new corporate clients like Swiss4 in the UK, R360 in India, and Visa in the Middle East and South America,” they said.

In its experiences and events division, it won a contract to work with the Red Sea Film Festival and to provide corporate concierge services to the Saudi Premier League.

It added that Allianz, the German insurer, BMW, and South African lender Standard Bank were among other clients with which it had signed contracts.

The accounts included the warning of a “risk that the pace and level at which business returns could be materially less than forecast, requiring the group and company to obtain external funding which may not be forthcoming and therefore this creates material uncertainty that may cast ultimately cast doubt about the … ability to continue as a going concern”.

This weekend, a Quintessentially spokesman declined to comment on the sale process.

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Superstar Adele joins backers of music royalties platform Audoo

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Superstar Adele joins backers of music royalties platform Audoo

Adele, the Grammy award-winning artist, has joined the list of music superstars investing in Audoo, a music technology company which helps artists to receive fairer royalty payments.

Sky News has learnt that the British musician and Adam Clayton, the U2 bassist, have injected money into Audoo as part of a £7m funding round.

The pair join Sir Elton John, Sir Paul McCartney and ABBA’s Bjorn Ulvaeus as shareholders in the company.

Changes to Audoo’s share register were filed at Companies House in recent days.

Audoo, which was established by former musician Ryan Edwards, is trying to address the perennial issue of public performance royalties, in order to ensure musicians are rewarded when their work is played in public venues.

Mr Edwards is reported to have been motivated to set up the company after hearing his own music played at football stadia and in bars, without any payment for it.

Estimates suggest that artists lose out on billions of dollars of unaccounted royalties each year.

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London-based Audoo uses a monitoring device – which it calls an Audio Meter – to recognise songs played in public venues, and which is said to have a 99% success rate.

It has struck what it describes as industry-first partnerships with organisations including the music licensing company PPL/PRS to track and report songs played in public performance locations such as cafes, hair salons, shops and gyms.

“At Audoo, we’re incredibly proud of the continued support we’re receiving as we work to make music royalties fairer and more transparent for artists and rights-holders around the world through our pioneering technology,” Mr Edwards told Sky News in a statement on Friday.

“We have successfully reached £7m in our latest funding round.

“This funding marks a pivotal moment for Audoo as we focus on our growth in North America and across Europe, bringing us closer to our mission of revolutionising the global royalty landscape.”

Sources said the new capital would be used partly to finance Audoo’s growth in the US.

The latest funding round takes the total amount of money raised by the company since its launch to more than $30m.

Mr Edwards has spoken of his desire to establish a major presence in Europe and the US because of their status as the world’s biggest recorded music markets.

Adele’s management company did not respond to an enquiry from Sky News.

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The Sunday Times Rich List: Billionaires fall as King rises to match Rishi Sunak

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The Sunday Times Rich List: Billionaires fall as King rises to match Rishi Sunak

The King’s personal fortune has shot up by £30m to put him on par with Rishi Sunak and his wife Akshata Murty, while the overall number of billionaires in the UK has plummeted, according to The Sunday Times Rich List.

The 2025 list, published on Friday, shows the King’s personal wealth grew from £610m to £640m, taking him up 20 places to 258 – level with former prime minister Mr Sunak and his wife.

The number of overall UK billionaires has fallen to 156 from 165 in 2024, marking the biggest drop since the rich list began 37 years ago.

Gopi Hinduja and his family, behind the Indian conglomerate Hinduja Group, topped the list for the fourth year running with £35.3bn.

Meanwhile, founder and chairman of global chemicals company Ineos Sir Jim Ratcliffe, who became part owner of Manchester United last year, dropped from fourth place to seventh after his reported wealth went from £23.5bn to £17.05bn.

Sir Jim Ratcliffe. Pic: PA.
Image:
Sir Jim Ratcliffe. Pic: PA.

Sir Jim’s £6.47bn losses marked the biggest on the list, while Russian-born brothers Igor and Dmitry Bukhman, who built a fortune on mobile games such as Gardenscapes and Fishdom, made the biggest gains with nearly £6.2bn.

New entries included makeup mogul Charlotte Tilbury with £350m and Ellen DeGeneres, who left the US for the Cotswolds last year.

Ellen DeGeneres with wife Portia de Rossi at Wimbledon. Pic: Reuters
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Ellen DeGeneres with wife Portia de Rossi at Wimbledon. Pic: Reuters

The Sunday Times said the list was one of its toughest to compile due to Donald Trump’s tariffs and the subsequent stock market turbulence, adding many from previous years had dropped off the list and others were no longer eligible having fled Britain after Labour’s non-dom crackdown.

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Overall, the combined wealth of those on the list stood at £772.8bn – down 3% from the last list.

Speaking to Anna Jones on Sky News Breakfast, Rich List compiler Rob Watts highlighted the story of Tom and Phil Beahon, who own sportswear clothing brand Castore which is now worth £1bn, as one of his favourites.

The brothers from Wirral have debuted at joint 345 on the list with an estimated wealth of £350m.

Calling their story “inspiring”, Mr Watts said: “They dreamed of being sportsmen as lads – one of them got onto the books of Tranmere Rovers and the other played cricket for Lancashire, but their sporting careers were over in their early 20s.

“And they say that failure was critical to driving them to create this £1bn sports kit business that you’ll now see being worn by the England cricket team and the England rugby team.”

File photo dated 21-09-2024 of England's Olly Stone who has been ruled out for the majority of the summer after undergoing knee surgery. Issue date: Friday April 4, 2025. PA
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England cricketer Olly Stone wearing a kit manufactured by Castore. Pic: PA

The top 20:

1. Gopi Hinduja and family – £35.3bn

2. David and Simon Reuben and family – £26.87bn

3. Sir Leonard Blavatnik – £25.73bn

4. Sir James Dyson and family – £20.8bn

5. Idan Ofer – £20.12bn

6. Guy, George, Alannah and Galen Weston and family – £17.75bn

7. Sir Jim Ratcliffe – £17.05bn

8. Lakshmi Mittal and family – £15.44bn

9. John Fredriksen and family – £13.68bn

10. Igor and Dmitry Bukhman – £12.54bn

11. Kirsten and Jorn Rausing – £12.51bn

12. Michael Platt – £12.5bn

13. Charlene de Carvalho-Heineken and Michel de Carvalho – £10.09bn

14. Duke of Westminster and the Grosvenor family – £9.88bn

15. Lord Bamford and family – £9.45bn

16. Denise, John and Peter Coates – £9.44bn

17. Carrie and Francois Perrodo and family – £9.3bn

18. Barnaby and Merlin Swire and family – £9.25bn

19. Marit, Lisbet, Sigrid and Hans Rausing – £9.09bn

20. Alex Gerko – £8.75bn

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