Donald Trump has not ruled out a recession in the United States this year, saying the world’s largest economy is in “transition” through his trade war.
Financial markets have been spooked by the implications of his early trade fights involving the country’s nearest partners Canada and Mexico through on-off tariffs of up to 25%.
China has also been targeted and the European Union could be next, from 2 April, when Mr Trump has promised to ramp up his “America first” ambitions.
The recession question first cropped up a week ago when a closely-watched economic indicator suggested the US economy was shrinking at its fastest pace since the COVID pandemic.
The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow model showed activity shrinking in the current first quarter, even before the president took office as the threat of tariffs loomed large.
Other indicators show signs for concern, with the US unemployment rate ticking up in February to 4.1%, according to official data on Friday.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
2:25
‘Trump slump’ hits stock markets
The dollar has suffered too, with sterling and the euro gaining four cents since the end of February.
They are hardly the headlines Mr Trump wants.
He was asked directly in a Fox News interview on Sunday whether he was expecting a recession.
Crucially, he did not deny the possibility in his reply when he said: “I hate to predict things like that. There is a period of transition because what we’re doing is very big, we’re bringing wealth back to America. That’s a big thing. And there are always periods of – it takes a little time. It takes a little time.”
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
3:27
Why are tariffs such a big deal?
“It will be great for us,” he said of the tariff regime’s domestic impact, which, he claims, will force more companies to hire more workers in the United States.
Both Canada and Mexico have been given two temporary reprieves, with companies operating cross-border complaining of chaos in terms of red tape and a lack of clarity on future tariffs.
Asked by Fox if he could give businesses some reassurance, Mr Trump added: “Well, I think so. But, you know, the tariffs could go up as time goes by and they may go up. And you know, I don’t know if it’s predictability, I think…”.
When told by the interviewer Maria Bartiromo that those remarks were not providing clarity, he responded: “No, I think they say that, you know, it sounds good to say. But for years, the globalists, the big globalists have been ripping off the United States; they’ve been taking money away from the United States. And all we’re doing is getting some of it back. And we’re going to treat our country fairly.”
The markets will study carefully the key US economic data ahead for signs of a protracted slowdown.
News that China returned to deflation in February helped keep sentiment on the back foot in Monday’s market moves as it showed underlying demand in its economy remained weak.
Most major equity markets in Asia and Europe were down, with futures suggesting that America would follow suit amid its own economic worries.
The country does not rely on the common international definition of a recession – two consecutive quarters of negative growth.
In the United States, only an independent committee of economists has the power to declare a recession.
Its deliberations expand beyond pure growth to include other facets such as the state of the employment market.
Some of the biggest US technology companies have pledged billions of pounds of investment to turbocharge Britain’s artificial intelligence (AI) industry, as the two countries announce a landmark technology deal.
Sir Keir Starmer described the agreement, which both leaders will sign over the coming days, as “a generational step change” in Britain’s relationship with the US.
The deal will see both countries cooperate on AI, quantum computing and nuclear energy, with investment in modular reactors revealed earlier this week.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
0:41
Energy boss makes case for nuclear future
The prime minister said it was “shaping the futures of millions of people on both sides of the Atlantic, and delivering growth, security and opportunity up and down the country”.
More on Artificial Intelligence
Related Topics:
The government said the deal would deliver thousands of jobs, with a new AI Growth Zone in the North East of England earmarked for 5,000 jobs.
The region will host a new data centre developed in partnership with ChatGPT developer OpenAI, the US chip giant Nvidia and the British data centre company Nscale. The UK government will supply energy for the project, which will be based in Blyth.
Jensen Huang, chief executive of Nvidia, who has previously drawn attention to Britain’s inadequate levels of digital infrastructure, said: “Today marks a historic chapter in US-United Kingdom technology collaboration.
“We are at the Big Bang of the AI era – and the United Kingdom stands in a Goldilocks position, where world-class talent, research and industry converge.”
The Blyth data centre is part of Stargate, Open AI’s infrastructure project to build large data centres across the US.
The company has also developed sites in Norway and the UAE. Nvidia, which provides the graphic processing chips (GPUs), expects to generate $20bn (£14.6bn) by the end of this year from “sovereign” deals with national governments over the coming years.
Sam Altman, OpenAI’s chief executive, said: “The UK has been a longstanding pioneer of AI, and is now home to world-class researchers, millions of ChatGPT users and a government that quickly recognised the potential of this technology.
“Stargate UK builds on this foundation to help accelerate scientific breakthroughs, improve productivity, and drive economic growth.”
Microsoft also pledged £22bn, its largest ever investment in the UK, to expand data centres and construct the country’s largest AI supercomputer.
Meanwhile, Google owner Alphabet pledged £5bn to expand its data centres in Hertfordshire and fund its London-based subsidiary DeepMind, which uses AI to power cutting edge scientific research. The company was founded in Britain and acquired by Google in 2014.
Other investments include £1.5bn from AI cloud computing company CoreWeave and £1.4bn from Salesforce.
There are “no discussions around taxpayers’ money” to prop up Jaguar Land Rover’s (JLR) suppliers, according to the prime minister’s official spokesman, as the carmaker grapples a lengthening production shutdown following last month’s cyber attack.
JLR factories fell silent more than two weeks ago. While it is damaging for the company, it represents a perilous loss of business for the supply chain which has also been forced to send workers home.
Some have already lost their jobs.
Unions and the business and trade committee of MPs were among those to request the possibility of aid to prevent job losses and employers going bust as the disruption drags on.
It was revealed on 1 September that global production at JLR had been stopped following a cyber attack.
More from Money
IT systems were taken offline by the company under efforts to limit penetration and damage.
The company appeared confident initially that manufacturing could resume but restart dates have been consistently put back.
What damage was done?
Jaguar Land Rover has said very little about the extent of the attack.
But it admitted last week that some data had been accessed. It gave no further details.
Who is to blame?
A criminal investigation is continuing.
A group of English-speaking hackers claimed responsibility for the JLR attack via a Telegram platform called Scattered Lapsus$ Hunters, an amalgamation of the names of hacking groups Scattered Spider, Lapsus$ and ShinyHunters.
Scattered Spider, a loose group of relatively young hackers, were behind the Co-Op, Harrods and M&S attacks earlier in the year.
It is widely believed that M&S paid a sum to regain control of its systems after it was targeted with ransomware though it has refused to confirm if this was the case.
How is this affecting JLR as a business?
Image: The business was highly profitable last year but 2025 has seen new trade war challenges in addition to the cyber attack: File pic: Reuters
JLR typically produces about 1,000 vehicles a day.
Production staff are being paid but kept away from plants at Halewood on Merseyside, Solihull in the West Midlands, and its engine factory in Wolverhampton. It is the same story for workers at sites in Slovakia, China and India.
JLR revealed on Tuesday that production lines would now remain shut until at least 24 September.
David Bailey, professor of business economics at the Birmingham Business School, told the PA news agency: “The value of cars usually made at the sites means that around £1.7bn worth of vehicles will not have been produced, and I’d estimate that would have an initial impact of around £120m on profits.”
JLR achieved a pre-tax profit of £2.5bn for the financial year ending 31 March 2025, so should be able to absorb such a hit.
Sales and service operations continue as normal at its retail partners but the longer the disruption goes on, so do the risks to its inventories and bottom line.
Why does its supply chain need help?
Image: JLR’s supply chain includes everything from components to paint. Pic: Reuters
This is the part of the operation that was always bound to suffer most in the event of a global JLR production shutdown.
No manufacturing means no need for parts.
The company usually depends on a ‘just in time’ supply chain to feed its factories and keep production lines running smoothly.
The Unite union has appealed for a COVID-style furlough scheme to prevent job losses and the risk of affected companies, often small or medium-sized firms, being forced out of business.
JLR’s operations are understood to directly support more than 100,000 jobs in the UK though that sum doubles through indirect roles.
The loss of any major supplier would risk further production delays once JLR’s IT systems are back online.
It is currently understood that the vast majority of directly affected workers remain in their jobs but have either been sent home or are on restricted tasks.
JLR suppliers Evtec, WHS Plastics, SurTec and OPmobility have had to temporarily lay off roughly 6,000 staff while a growing number of other firms are cutting workers, with temporary or contracted workers most likely to be affected.
What has the government said?
In addition to the remarks by the PM’s official spokesman, minister for industry Chris McDonald told Sky News: “We know this is a worrying time for those affected by this incident and our cyber experts are supporting JLR to help them resolve this issue as quickly as possible.
“I met the company today to discuss their plans to resolve this issue and get production started again, and we continue to discuss the impact on the supply chain.”