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Donald Trump has not ruled out a recession in the United States this year, saying the world’s largest economy is in “transition” through his trade war.

Financial markets have been spooked by the implications of his early trade fights involving the country’s nearest partners Canada and Mexico through on-off tariffs of up to 25%.

China has also been targeted and the European Union could be next, from 2 April, when Mr Trump has promised to ramp up his “America first” ambitions.

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The recession question first cropped up a week ago when a closely-watched economic indicator suggested the US economy was shrinking at its fastest pace since the COVID pandemic.

The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow model showed activity shrinking in the current first quarter, even before the president took office as the threat of tariffs loomed large.

Other indicators show signs for concern, with the US unemployment rate ticking up in February to 4.1%, according to official data on Friday.

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The stock market sell-off of last week left the broad S&P 500 trading at near six-month lows.

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‘Trump slump’ hits stock markets

The dollar has suffered too, with sterling and the euro gaining four cents since the end of February.

They are hardly the headlines Mr Trump wants.

He was asked directly in a Fox News interview on Sunday whether he was expecting a recession.

Crucially, he did not deny the possibility in his reply when he said: “I hate to predict things like that. There is a period of transition because what we’re doing is very big, we’re bringing wealth back to America. That’s a big thing. And there are always periods of – it takes a little time. It takes a little time.”

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Why are tariffs such a big deal?

“It will be great for us,” he said of the tariff regime’s domestic impact, which, he claims, will force more companies to hire more workers in the United States.

Both Canada and Mexico have been given two temporary reprieves, with companies operating cross-border complaining of chaos in terms of red tape and a lack of clarity on future tariffs.

Asked by Fox if he could give businesses some reassurance, Mr Trump added: “Well, I think so. But, you know, the tariffs could go up as time goes by and they may go up. And you know, I don’t know if it’s predictability, I think…”.

When told by the interviewer Maria Bartiromo that those remarks were not providing clarity, he responded: “No, I think they say that, you know, it sounds good to say. But for years, the globalists, the big globalists have been ripping off the United States; they’ve been taking money away from the United States. And all we’re doing is getting some of it back. And we’re going to treat our country fairly.”

The markets will study carefully the key US economic data ahead for signs of a protracted slowdown.

News that China returned to deflation in February helped keep sentiment on the back foot in Monday’s market moves as it showed underlying demand in its economy remained weak.

Most major equity markets in Asia and Europe were down, with futures suggesting that America would follow suit amid its own economic worries.

The country does not rely on the common international definition of a recession – two consecutive quarters of negative growth.

In the United States, only an independent committee of economists has the power to declare a recession.

Its deliberations expand beyond pure growth to include other facets such as the state of the employment market.

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High street banking giants vie for £2.5bn wealth manager Evelyn 

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High street banking giants vie for £2.5bn wealth manager Evelyn 

Two of Britain’s biggest high street banks are embroiled in a £2.5bn takeover battle for Evelyn Partners, the wealth management group.

Sky News has learnt that Barclays and NatWest Group were among the bidders notified last week that they were through to the second round of the Evelyn auction.

Royal Bank of Canada is also said to be in the frame to buy Evelyn, while a number of private equity firms have also tabled offers for the business.

Lloyds Banking Group is understood to have explored an offer for Evelyn, although it was unclear on Tuesday whether it remained interested.

For Barclays and NatWest, an acquisition of Evelyn would bolster an area of their businesses where both already have a strong presence – the latter through its Coutts division.

Paul Thwaite, NatWest’s chief executive, has been clear that the bank will consider acquisitions where they are sensibly priced and strategically attractive following its return this year to full private sector ownership.

According to results published in August, Evelyn had assets under management of £64.6bn at the end of June, reflecting growing demand across the wealth management sector.

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Canaccord Genuity’s wealth arm is also on the block and could fetch a price of over £1bn.

Evelyn is owned by the private equity firms Permira and Warburg Pincus, having merged their respective firms Tilney and Smith & Williamson in 2020.

Last year, Evelyn’s professional services arm was sold to the buyout firm Apax Partners.

The current auction is being handled by bankers at Evercore.

Barclays and NatWest declined to comment.

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Reeves’s budget tax rises ‘a pub destroyer’, say landlords

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Reeves's budget tax rises 'a pub destroyer', say landlords

A millionaires’ playground, Poole in Dorset boasts some of the most expensive properties in the UK, and has been called Britain’s Palm Beach.

Away from the yachts and the mansions of Sandbanks, however, Poole is also a beer drinkers’ paradise, with 58 pubs in the parliamentary constituency alone.

But now many of Dorset’s pub landlords have joined a bitter backlash against rises in business rates of up to £30,000 in Rachel Reeves’s November budget.

Across the UK, it is claimed up to 1,000 publicans have even banned Labour MPs from their pubs, after the chancellor axed a 40% rates discount, introduced during COVID, from next April.

The row over the rises, brewing since the budget, came to a head in a clash between Kemi Badenoch and Sir Keir Starmer in the final Prime Minister’s Questions of 2025.

“He gave his word that he would help pubs,” said the Tory leader.

“Yet they face a 15% rise in business rates because of his budget. Will he be honest and admit that his taxes are forcing pubs to close?”

The PM replied that the temporary relief introduced during COVID – a scheme the Conservatives put in place and Labour supported, he said – had come to an end.

“But it was always a temporary scheme coming to an end,” he said.

“We have now put in place a £4bn transitional relief.”

Mark and Michael Ambrose, father and son co-landlords of The Barking Cat, said the increases are a 'pub destroyer'
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Mark and Michael Ambrose, father and son co-landlords of The Barking Cat, said the increases are a ‘pub destroyer’

But in the Barking Cat Ale House in Poole, facing an increase in business rates of nearly £9,000 a year, the father and son co-landlords fear the rises could mean last orders for many pubs.

“We’re sort of in the average area at 157%, but we’ve got a lot of local pubs that are increasing by 600%, and another one by 800%,” Ambrose senior, Mark, told Sky News.

“It’s a pub destroyer. Pubs can’t survive these kinds of increases. It’s not viable. Most pubs are just about scraping by anyway. If you add these massive increases your profit margins are wiped out.

“We struggle as it is. You can’t have that kind of increase and expect businesses to succeed.

“Fortunately, the customers understand. But they still don’t want to have to spend an extra 30 or 50 pence a pint.”

Son Michael added: “It’s all back to front. It’s really these bigger pub companies and supermarkets that need to be facing increased taxes. We can’t handle them. They can.”

Michelle Smith, landlady of the Poole Arms, the oldest pub on the town’s quay, dating back to 1635, said: “Our rates per value is due to go up £9,000 in April, so it’s quite a deal.”

Michelle Smith, landlady of The Poole Arms, said all her prices are going up
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Michelle Smith, landlady of The Poole Arms, said all her prices are going up

“And we had a rates increase just gone as well,” she added. “So our rates had already increased over £1,000 a month last April. So another hit is quite considerable really.

“Prices definitely have to go up with all the different price increases that we’ve got throughout: business rates, wage increases, the beer goes up from the breweries. Everything is going up.”

Backing the publicans, Neil Duncan-Jordan, who became Poole’s first ever Labour MP last year, has written to the chancellor demanding a rethink. He said he is prepared to vote against the tax rise in the Commons.

“They’ve got to listen,” he told Sky News.

“They’ve got to listen to the high street, to publicans, people who run social clubs and listen to problems that they’re facing and the impact that these changes have made.”


Pint price rises to come unless govt make changes

Mr Duncan-Jordan said he was prepared to support an amendment to the Finance Bill, which turns the budget into law and had its second reading in the Commons last week.

Despite being suspended for four months for rebelling against welfare cuts earlier this year, he said: “I was discussing this with some MPs just this morning and I’ll be happy to support those. Sometimes you just have to say what you think is right.”

As chancellor, Ms Reeves has regularly raised a glass to pubs and promised to protect them from rising costs.

But Sir Keir has faced the wrath of a publican before, when he was thrown out of a pub in Bath during COVID by an anti-lockdown landlord.

This time, without a U-turn by the chancellor on the business rates increases, pub landlords fear the government has them over a barrel.

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FTSE-100 events group Informa kicks off hunt for new chairman

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FTSE-100 events group Informa kicks off hunt for new chairman

Informa, the FTSE-100 events group behind the Fort Lauderdale International Boat Show and World of Concrete, is kicking off a search for its next chairman.

Sky News has learnt that Informa, which has a market capitalisation of about £11.3bn, is working with headhunters to find a successor to John Rishton.

City sources said on Monday that Russell Reynolds Associates was handling the search.

A former chief executive of Rolls Royce Group, Mr Rishton joined the Informa board in September 2016 before taking over as chairman nearly five years later.

People close to the process said he was likely to step down in 2027, by which time he will have served for nearly 11 years as a director.

Informa has a large data division, which has been responsible for a significant proportion of its recent growth.

Its assets previously included the historic maritime news and analysis service Lloyd’s List, which claims to be the world’s longest published business newspaper.

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Reeves’s spring budget date is revealed

Earlier this year, it emerged that Lord Carter, the company’s chief executive, had moved his residency to Dubai to reflect its rapid growth prospects in the Gulf region.

The launch of a hunt for a new chairman and Lord Carter’s recent relocation makes it increasingly likely that he will extend his current 12-year tenure by at least another two years.

Shares in Informa, which declined to comment on the search for Mr Rishton’s successor, closed on Monday at 885.2p.

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