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Donald Trump has not ruled out a recession in the United States this year, saying the world’s largest economy is in “transition” through his trade war.

Financial markets have been spooked by the implications of his early trade fights involving the country’s nearest partners Canada and Mexico through on-off tariffs of up to 25%.

China has also been targeted and the European Union could be next, from 2 April, when Mr Trump has promised to ramp up his “America first” ambitions.

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The recession question first cropped up a week ago when a closely-watched economic indicator suggested the US economy was shrinking at its fastest pace since the COVID pandemic.

The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow model showed activity shrinking in the current first quarter, even before the president took office as the threat of tariffs loomed large.

Other indicators show signs for concern, with the US unemployment rate ticking up in February to 4.1%, according to official data on Friday.

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The stock market sell-off of last week left the broad S&P 500 trading at near six-month lows.

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‘Trump slump’ hits stock markets

The dollar has suffered too, with sterling and the euro gaining four cents since the end of February.

They are hardly the headlines Mr Trump wants.

He was asked directly in a Fox News interview on Sunday whether he was expecting a recession.

Crucially, he did not deny the possibility in his reply when he said: “I hate to predict things like that. There is a period of transition because what we’re doing is very big, we’re bringing wealth back to America. That’s a big thing. And there are always periods of – it takes a little time. It takes a little time.”

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Why are tariffs such a big deal?

“It will be great for us,” he said of the tariff regime’s domestic impact, which, he claims, will force more companies to hire more workers in the United States.

Both Canada and Mexico have been given two temporary reprieves, with companies operating cross-border complaining of chaos in terms of red tape and a lack of clarity on future tariffs.

Asked by Fox if he could give businesses some reassurance, Mr Trump added: “Well, I think so. But, you know, the tariffs could go up as time goes by and they may go up. And you know, I don’t know if it’s predictability, I think…”.

When told by the interviewer Maria Bartiromo that those remarks were not providing clarity, he responded: “No, I think they say that, you know, it sounds good to say. But for years, the globalists, the big globalists have been ripping off the United States; they’ve been taking money away from the United States. And all we’re doing is getting some of it back. And we’re going to treat our country fairly.”

The markets will study carefully the key US economic data ahead for signs of a protracted slowdown.

News that China returned to deflation in February helped keep sentiment on the back foot in Monday’s market moves as it showed underlying demand in its economy remained weak.

Most major equity markets in Asia and Europe were down, with futures suggesting that America would follow suit amid its own economic worries.

The country does not rely on the common international definition of a recession – two consecutive quarters of negative growth.

In the United States, only an independent committee of economists has the power to declare a recession.

Its deliberations expand beyond pure growth to include other facets such as the state of the employment market.

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M&S tells agency workers to stay at home after cyberattack

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M&S tells agency workers to stay at home after cyberattack

Marks & Spencer (M&S) has ordered hundreds of agency workers at its main distribution centre to stay at home as it grapples with the unfolding impact of a cyberattack on Britain’s best-known retailer.

Sky News has learnt that roughly 200 people who had been due to undertake shift work at M&S’s vast Castle Donington clothing and homewares logistics centre in the East Midlands have been told not to come in amid the escalating crisis.

Agency staff make up about 20% of Castle Donington’s workforce, according to a source close to M&S.

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The retailer’s own employees who work at the site have been told to come in as usual, the source added.

“There is work for them to do,” they said.

M&S disclosed last week that it was suspending online orders as a result of the cyberattack, but has provided few other details about the nature and extent of the incident.

In its latest update to investors, the company said on Friday that its product range was “available to browse online, and our stores remain open and ready to welcome and serve customers”.

“We continue to manage the incident proactively and the M&S team – supported by leading experts – is working extremely hard to restore online operations and continue to serve customers well,” it added.

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It was unclear on Monday how long the disruption to M&S’s e-commerce operations would last, although retail executives said the cyberattack was “extensive” and that it could take the company some time to fully resolve its impact.

Shares in M&S slid a further 2.4% on Monday morning, following a sharp fall last week, as investors reacted to the absence of positive news about the incident.

M&S declined to comment further.

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Deliveroo shares surge 17% as £2.7bn takeover looms

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Deliveroo shares surge 17% as £2.7bn takeover looms

Shares in meal delivery platform Deliveroo have surged by 17% as investors react to news of a £2.7bn takeover proposal.

The company revealed after the market had closed on Friday that it had been in talks since 5 April with US rival DoorDash.

Deliveroo suggested then it was likely the 180p per share offer would be recommended, though full terms were yet to be agreed.

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At that price, the company’s founder and chief executive, Will Shu, would be in line for a windfall of more than £170m.

Deliveroo further announced, before trading on Monday, that it had suspended its £100m share buyback programme.

The opening share price reaction took the value to 171p per share – still shy of the 180p on the table – and well under the 390p per share flotation price seen in 2021.

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Deliveroo’s shares have weakened nearly 50% since their market debut.

The deal is not expected to face regulatory hurdles as it provides DoorDash access to 10 new markets where it currently has no presence.

But a takeover would likely represent a blow to the City of London given the anticipated loss of a tech-focused player.

Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: “If the deal is done at that price, the company will fail to shake off the ‘Floperoo’ tag it was saddled with after its disastrous IPO debut in 2021.

“Even though Deliveroo has finally broken through into profitable territory, the prolonged bout of indigestion around its share price has continued.

“The surge in demand for home deliveries during the pandemic waned just as competition heated up. Deliveroo’s foray into grocery deliveries has helped it turn a profit but it’s still facing fierce rivals.”

She added: “The DoorDash Deliveroo deal will be unappetising for the government which has been trying to boost the number of tech companies listed in London.

“If Deliveroo is purchased it would join a stream of companies leaving the London Stock Exchange, with too few IPOs [initial public offerings] in the pipeline to make up the numbers.”

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US trade deal ‘possible’ but not ‘certain’, says senior minister

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US trade deal 'possible' but not 'certain', says senior minister

A trade deal with the US is “possible” but not “certain”, a senior minister has said as he struck a cautious tone about negotiations with the White House.

Pat McFadden, the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, told Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips there was “a serious level of engagement going on at high levels” to secure a UK-US trade deal.

However, Mr McFadden, a key ally of Sir Keir Starmer, struck a more cautious tone than Chancellor Rachel Reeves on the prospect of a US trade deal, saying: “I think an agreement is possible – I don’t think it’s certain, and I don’t want to say it’s certain, but I think it’s possible.”

He went on to say the government wanted an “agreement in the UK’s interests” and not a “hasty deal”, amid fears from critics that Number 10 could acquiesce a deal that lowers food standards, for example, or changes certain taxes in a bid to persuade Donald Trump to lower some of the tariffs that have been placed on British goods.

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And asked about the timing of the deal – following recent reports an agreement was imminent – Mr McFadden said: “We’ll keep working with the United States and keep trying to get to an agreement in the coming weeks.”

As well as talks with the US, the UK has also ramped up its efforts with the EU, with suggestions it could include a new EU youth mobility scheme that would allow under-30s from the bloc to live, work and study in the UK and vice versa.

Mr McFadden said he believed the government could “improve upon” the Brexit deal struck by Boris Johnson, saying it had caused “an awful lot of bureaucracy and costs here in the UK”.

He said “first and foremost” on the government’s agenda was securing a food and agriculture and a veterinary agreement, saying it was “such an important area for the UK and an area where we’ve had so much extra cost and bureaucracy because of Brexit”.

He added: “But again, as with the United States, there’s no point in calling the game before it’s done. We’ve still got work to do, and we’re doing that work with our partners in the EU.”

The Cabinet Office minister also rejected suggestions the UK would have to choose between pursuing a trade deal with the US and one with the EU – the latter of which has banned chlorinated chicken in its markets – as has the UK – but which the US has historically wanted.

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On the issue of chlorinated chicken, Mr McFadden said the government had “made clear we will not water down animal welfare standards with either party”.

“But I don’t agree that it’s some fundamental choice beyond where we have to pick one trading partner rather than another. I think that’s to misunderstand the nature of the UK economy, and I don’t think would be in our interests to put all our eggs in one basket.”

Also speaking to Trevor Phillips was Tory leader Kemi Badenoch, who said the government should be close to closing the deal with the US “because we got very close last time President Trump was in office”.

She also insisted food standards should not be watered down in order to get a deal, saying she did not reach an agreement with Canada when she was in government for that reason.

“What Labour needs to do now is show that they can get a deal that isn’t making concessions, so we can have what we had last month before the trade tariffs, and we need serious people doing this,” she said.

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