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If you’re already feeling overwhelmed by the sheer amount of news to ingest on Donald Trump’s tariffs plans in recent weeks, well, you’re not alone.

One measure of “policy uncertainty”, which measures how much certain issues are dominating news coverage, shows that the uncertainty levels over trade are currently higher than they’ve been in decades.

But even that index struggles to capture the extent of uncertainty.

Will the on-again off-again tariffs on Canada and Mexico actually be implemented? What about the tariffs on steel and aluminium, due to be implemented this week? So far, the only tariffs that have actually taken effect are the extra 10% levies imposed on China a few weeks ago.

But then Donald Trump has since talked about an extra 10% on top of that, not to mention a set of “reciprocal tariffs” intended mostly to hit the European Union. It’s very hard to keep pace with it all.

However, one of the impacts of all this uncertainty is that US share prices have been performing far worse than their international counterparts.

Graph of 'uncertainty index'

Many had assumed, based on his behaviour last time around, that Donald Trump would shy away from any decisions causing long-term damage to share prices, but the S&P 500 index is down over 6% since the inauguration, compared to a 12% rise in Germany‘s currency-adjusted index. Some are calling it the “Trump Slump”.

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Markets don’t like uncertainty; nor do they like inflation, especially the kind caused by tariffs, which impose an extra cost on all imported items. Whether this is a price worth paying rather depends on what the White House intends to achieve from this.

The ostensible goal – beyond extracting something from countries like China and Canada – is to seek to reindustrialise the US by preventing manufactured goods from entering quite so easily. But is that likely to happen?

Stock market values since inauguration of Trump

For some evidence, look no further than the last time Donald Trump imposed tariffs on metals, back in 2018. The levies on aluminium (then a “mere” 10%) certainly caused a slight rise in domestic production as more smelting capacity was brought back online.

But that bump was short-lived. By the end of his first term, production was back, more or less, to where it was before the tariffs. In the intervening period, aluminium production has dropped to unprecedented lows.

The White House’s argument is that this is down in part to the fact that a) some countries, notably Canada, were excluded from the tariffs and b) the level of tariff was too low. Hence why it’s been raised to 25%. But the aluminium industry itself has said that Canada really needs to be excluded from this round of levies. Will those appeals bear fruit? Again, no-one really knows.

chart showing impact of previous tariffs

What we do know is that many parts of American industry, from high tech producers of planes and cars, all the way down to soft drinks can manufacturers, rely on imported aluminium. In the very long run, some companies might get old smelters up and running, or build new ones. But it takes years to do so.

In other words, in the intervening period there is likely to be some significant economic pain as the cost of all that metal goes sharply higher.

Nor is it altogether clear whether a rational investor would really put the necessary funds into building a new smelter.

The numbers might add up if the tariffs stay in place. But what guarantee do they have that they will stay in place? Since no-one really knows, the chances of anyone putting their money into that industry are more constrained than usual.

What we do know is that in the meantime, other countries are retaliating with other trade weapons.

China has imposed limits on exports of key metals like tungsten and molybdenum – in both cases it is the world’s biggest producer. That, in turn, will further raise costs for American producers.

The upshot is the coming months and years will be bumpy and tough for the American economy. Then again, trying to re-industrialise a country like America – or for that matter the UK – is no mean feat. Trying to do it at breakneck speed using a set of blunt tariffs is all the harder.

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Trump seeks to fire Fed governor, triggering fresh independence crisis

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Trump seeks to fire Fed governor, triggering fresh independence crisis

President Trump says he is firing a governor of the US central bank, a move seen as intensifying his bid for control over the setting of interest rates.

He posted a letter on his Truth Social platform on Monday night declaring that Lisa Cook – the first black woman to be appointed a Federal Reserve governor – was to be removed from her post on alleged mortgage fraud grounds.

She has responded, insisting he has no authority over her job and vowed to continue in the role, threatening a legal battle that could potentially go all the way to the Supreme Court.

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The president‘s threat is significant as he has consistently demanded that the central bank cut interest rates to help boost the US economy. Growth has sagged since he returned to office on the back of US trade war gloom and hiring has slowed sharply in more recent months.

Mr Trump has previously directed his ire over rates at Jay Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, blaming him for the economic jitters and has repeatedly called for him to be fired.

The Fed, as it is known, has long been considered an institution independent from politics and question marks over that independence has previously shaken financial markets.

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The dollar was hit overnight while US futures indicate a negative opening for stock markets.

Mr Powell’s term is due to end next spring and the president is expected to soon nominate his replacement.

Fed chair Jay Powell is seen in discussion with board member Lisa Cook. Pic: AP
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Fed chair Jay Powell is seen in discussion with board member Lisa Cook. Pic: AP

The Fed has 12 people with a right to vote on monetary policy, which includes the setting of interest rates and some regulatory powers.

Those 12 include the seven members of the Board of Governors, of which Ms Cook is one.

Replacing her would give Trump appointees a 4-3 majority on the board.

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July: Fed chair has ‘done a bad job’, says Trump

He has previously said he would only appoint Fed officials who support lower borrowing costs.

Ms Cook was appointed to the Fed’s board by then-president Joe Biden in 2022 and is the first black woman to serve as a governor.

Her nomination was opposed by most Senate Republicans at the time and was only approved, on a 50-50 vote, with the tie broken by then-vice president Kamala Harris.

It was alleged last week by a Trump appointed regulator that Ms Cook had claimed two primary residences in 2021 to get better mortgage terms.

Mortgage rates are often higher on second homes or those purchased to rent.

She responded to the president’s letter: “President Trump purported to fire me ‘for cause’ when no cause exists under the law, and he has no authority to do so,” she said in an emailed statement.

“I will not resign.”

Legal experts said it was for the White House to argue its case.

But Lev Menand, a law professor at Columbia law school, said of the situation: “This is a procedurally invalid removal under the statute.

“This is not someone convicted of a crime. This is not someone who is not carrying out their duties.”

The Fed was yet to comment.

It has held off from interest rate cuts this year, largely over fears that the president’s trade war will result in a surge of inflation due to higher import duties being passed on in the world’s largest economy.

However, Mr Powell hinted last week that a cut could now be justified due to risks of rising unemployment.

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New Look owners pick bankers to fashion sale process

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New Look owners pick bankers to fashion sale process

The owners of New Look, the high street fashion retailer, have picked bankers to oversee a strategic review which is expected to see the company change hands next year.

Sky News has learnt that Rothschild has been appointed in recent days to advise New Look and its shareholders on a potential exit.

The investment bank’s appointment follows a number of unsolicited approaches for the business from unidentified suitors.

New Look, which trades from almost 340 stores and employs about 10,000 people across the UK, is the country’s second-largest womenswear retailer in the 18-to-44 year-old age group.

It has been owned by its current shareholders – Alcentra and Brait – since October 2020.

In April, Sky News reported that the investors were injecting £30m of fresh equity into the business to aid its digital transformation.

Last year, the chain reported sales of £769m, with an improvement in gross margins and a statutory loss before tax of £21.7m – down from £88m the previous year.

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Like most high street retailers, it endured a torrid Covid-19 and engaged in a formal financial restructuring through a company voluntary arrangement.

In the autumn of 2023, it completed a £100m refinancing deal with Blazehill Capital and Wells Fargo.

A spokesperson for New Look declined to comment specifically on the appointment of Rothschild, but said: “Management are focused on running the business and executing the strategy for long-term growth.

“The company is performing well, with strong momentum driven by a successful summer trading period and notable online market share gains.”

Roughly 40% of New Look’s sales are now generated through digital channels, while recent data from the market intelligence firm Kantar showed it had moved into second place in the online 18-44 category, overtaking Shein and ASOS.

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Coca-Cola brews up sale of high street coffee giant Costa

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Coca-Cola brews up sale of high street coffee giant Costa

The Coca-Cola Company is brewing up a sale of Costa, Britain’s biggest high street coffee chain, more than six years after acquiring the business in a move aimed at helping it reduce its reliance on sugary soft drinks.

Sky News can exclusively reveal that Coca-Cola is working with bankers to hold exploratory talks about a sale of Costa.

Initial talks have already been held with a small number of potential bidders, including private equity firms, City sources said on Saturday.

Lazard, the investment bank, is understood to have been engaged by Coca-Cola to review options for the business and gauge interest from prospective buyers.

Indicative offers are said to be due in the early part of the autumn, although one source cautioned that Coca-Cola could yet decide not to proceed with a sale.

Costa trades from more than 2,000 stores in the UK, and well over 3,000 globally, according to the latest available figures.

It has been reported to have a global workforce numbering 35,000, although Coca-Cola did not respond to several attempts to establish the precise number of outlets currently in operation, or its employee numbers.

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This weekend, analysts said that a sale could crystallise a multibillion pound loss on the £3.9bn sum Coca-Cola agreed to pay to buy Costa from Whitbread, the London-listed owner of the Premier Inn hotel chain, in 2018.

One suggested that Costa might now command a price tag of just £2bn in a sale process.

The disposal proceeds would, in any case, not be material to the Atlanta-based company, which had a market capitalisation at Friday’s closing share price of $304.2bn (£224.9bn).

At the time of the acquisition, Coca-Cola’s chief executive, James Quincey, said: “Costa gives Coca-Cola new capabilities and expertise in coffee, and our system can create opportunities to grow the Costa brand worldwide.

“Hot beverages is one of the few segments of the total beverage landscape where Coca-Cola does not have a global brand.

“Costa gives us access to this market with a strong coffee platform.”

However, accounts filed at Companies House for Costa show that in 2023 – the last year for which standalone results are available – the coffee chain recorded revenues of £1.22bn.

While this represented a 9% increase on the previous year, it was below the £1.3bn recorded in 2018, the final year before Coca-Cola took control of the business.

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Coca-Cola has been grappling with the weak performance of Costa for some time, with Mr Quincey saying on an earnings call last month: “We’re in the mode of reflecting on what we’ve learned, thinking about how we might want to find new avenues to grow in the coffee category while continuing to run the Costa business successfully.”

“It’s still a lot of money we put down, and we wanted that money to work as hard as possible.”

Costa’s 2022 accounts referred to the financial pressures it faced from “the economic environment and inflationary pressures”, resulting in it launching “a restructuring programme to address the scale of overheads and invest for growth”.

Filings show that despite its lacklustre performance, Costa has paid more than £250m in dividends to its owner since the acquisition.

The deal was intended to provide Coca-Cola with a global platform in a growing area of the beverages market.

Costa trades in dozens of countries, including India, Japan, Mexico and Poland, and operates a network of thousands of coffee vending machines internationally under the Costa Express brand.

The chain was founded in 1971 by Italian brothers Sergio and Bruno Costa.

It was sold to Whitbread for £19m in 1995, when it traded from fewer than 40 stores.

The business is now one of Britain’s biggest private sector employers, and has become a ubiquitous presence on high streets across the country.

Its main rivals include Starbucks, Caffe Nero and Pret a Manger – the last of which is being prepared for a stake sale and possible public market flotation.

It has also faced growing competition from more upmarket chains such as Gail’s, the bakeries group, which has also been exploring a sale.

Coca-Cola communications executives in the US and UK did not respond to a series of emails and calls from Sky News seeking comment on its plans for Costa.

A Lazard spokesperson declined to comment.

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