
Kings of Command: Breakout pitchers to draft in fantasy baseball
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7 months agoon
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Tristan H. Cockcroft
Mar 12, 2025, 09:52 AM ET
No matter your fantasy baseball strategy, in these days of declining pitching workloads, piecing your pitching staff together is a practically mandatory practice.
The 2024 season was as representative of this as any. It saw the fewest pitchers (21) working at least 180 innings in any non-shortened season in history. Additionally, among the generally undrafted players in ESPN leagues who scored at least 350 fantasy points, 10 of the 14 such players were pitchers.
How might fantasy managers unearth some of this gold on the pitching side? My favorite method is to identify pitchers with potentially elite skill sets, but whose surface statistics — “back of the baseball card” measures like wins and ERA — belie their true talent. They are my annual “Kings of Command,” pitchers who meet a specific set of statistical benchmarks reflecting excellence in the command department.
Kings of Command baseline numbers
Pitchers who qualify for inclusion exceeded the MLB averages listed below in all of the following categories during the 2024 season. Starting pitchers must have faced at least 200 batters and relief pitchers must have faced at least 100 batters, while serving in those specific roles.
Starting pitchers:
Swinging-strike rate (SwStrk%): 11.8% or more
First-pitch strike rate (1stPStrk%): 62.9% or more
Command rate (K’s per walk, or K/BB): 2.89 or more
Relief pitchers:
Swinging-strike rate (SwStrk%): 12.7% or more
First-pitch strike rate (1stPStrk%): 61.6% of more
Command rate (K’s per walk, or K/BB): 2.61 or more
Put-away rate (K’s per 2-strike count): 19.8% or more
Using those thresholds, 98 pitchers (40 starters and 58 relievers) met all of those criteria in either role. Among them were both Cy Young Award winners (Chris Sale, Tarik Skubal), both Reliever of the Year Award winners, (Emmanuel Clase, Ryan Helsley), each of the top four starting pitchers in terms of both fantasy points scored and Player Rater finish, and all four relief pitchers who earned a Cy Young vote.
The following nine names, however — none of whom were anywhere near as ballyhooed as Skubal, Zack Wheeler or Corbin Burnes or their ilk — also qualified. That’s not to place any of them on an equal (or even a nearby) pedestal as those three fantasy stalwarts, but each possesses underappreciated skills that had them perform statistically beneath our radar in 2024.
Each is a potential bargain in fantasy drafts, and each might be only a minor tweak or adjustment to a specific pitch or his pitch usage, the pitcher’s stance on the pitching rubber, greater fortune on batted balls, or an increased opportunity on his team away from breaking through.
Let’s examine what it might take for each to emerge. My “Kings of Command” are listed in alphabetical order, along with their 2024 Player Rater finishes and fantasy point totals using ESPN’s standard scoring.
David Festa, Minnesota Twins
2024 Player Rater: SP172/745th overall
2024 fantasy point total: 107 (SP166)
His strengths: Between his 95-mph fastball and his slider and changeup, Festa has legitimate swing-and-miss stuff, generating the third-best swinging strike rate (16.4%) among Triple-A pitchers last season in addition to meeting this column’s qualifications. Across his final 10 starts with the Twins, he held opposing hitters to a .228 batting average and struck out 29.2%.
How he could break out: Festa introduced a new sinker to his repertoire, which could help him improve against right-handers (.332 wOBA allowed in the majors, 17 points higher than he had in Triple-A), and is pitching entirely out of the stretch this spring. Merely cracking the Twins rotation might fuel a breakthrough, but progress with either the new sinker or his slider (29% whiff rate, 6% beneath the league’s average) would ultimately fuel his biggest step forward.
Robert Garcia, Texas Rangers
2024 Player Rater: RP123/398th overall
2024 fantasy point total: 147 (RP126)
His strengths: A sneaky pickup in December’s Nathaniel Lowe trade, Garcia had a 2.39 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching score) last season as a member of the Washington Nationals bullpen, 11th-best among 160 relief pitchers with at least 50 innings. Thanks to an electric changeup, he held right-handed hitters to a .272 wOBA (league average for lefties was .314) with a 31.1% strikeout rate, alleviating any worry about platoon splits or a situational role.
How he could break out: Better luck would go a long way toward vaulting Garcia up the fantasy leaderboard, as he had a ghastly .331 BABIP (.290 league average for relievers) and second-worst-among-relievers 57.2% left-on-base (LOB) rate. A crack at the late innings, in what’s largely a wide-open Rangers bullpen, would also help.
Chris Martin, Texas Rangers
2024 Player Rater: RP91/331st overall
2024 fantasy point total: 143 (RP133)
His strengths: He has long been one of the better relievers in baseball, as his 2.66 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 66 holds are all top-10 numbers among relievers with at least 200 IP over the past five seasons combined. Martin possesses exceptional control, as his 2.9% walk rate during that same time span leads all relievers. Plus, he has never issued more than eight walks in a single MLB season.
How he could break out: Martin is the most logical choice to close for the Rangers, but better luck in the health department is imperative if he’s to retain the job. He has made seven trips to the IL during the past five seasons — including multiple stints in three of them — and only once made as many as 60 appearances (2022). That health history opens the door for Garcia to potentially emerge.
Reese Olson, Detroit Tigers
2024 Player Rater: SP98/405th overall
2024 fantasy point total: 209 (SP104)
His strengths: He has two potentially elite strikeout pitches in his slider and changeup, both of which generated at least a 43% whiff rate in 2024 (MLB rates on each were 34% and 31%). Through two months, he appeared to be on the verge of a major breakthrough, posting a 1.92 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP over his first 10 starts. However, shoulder issues cost him nearly two months during the second half, interrupting his momentum.
How he could break out: Olson’s command of his four-seam fastball and changeup waned after his hot start and will need correction if he’s to recapture the promise he showed early last year. The fastball in particular needs improvement, as it generated the sixth-worst whiff rate (13%) among pitchers who threw at least as many as he did the past two seasons, which is why it’s encouraging to see him throwing it a full mph faster (95.4) in his two Statcast-measured spring starts thus far.
Chris Paddack, Minnesota Twins
2024 Player Rater: SP174/751st overall
2024 fantasy point total: 127 (SP151)
His strengths: He’s a master of control, as among 113 pitchers with at least as many as his 82 career starts over the past six seasons, his 5.0% walk rate ranks sixth, his 66.4% first-pitch strike rate ranks 11th and his 52.6% in-zone rate ranks 12th. Paddack’s changeup has also shown an ability to be top shelf when he’s healthy and possesses full command of it, including 2020, when Statcast graded it as the league’s fourth-best-performing changeup.
How he could break out: Health, health, health. Paddack has had only one professional season with as many as 120 innings pitched, while averaging just 58 IP over the last four. The Twins seem confident enough in him to likely hand him a season-opening rotation spot, but he’ll first need to stay on the mound long enough to make it worth discussing his next breakout ingredient (better luck on batted balls).
Brandon Pfaadt, Arizona Diamondbacks
2024 Player Rater: SP78/317th overall
2024 fantasy point total: 317 (SP49)
His strengths: A “pepper the strike zone” control artist — his 68.4% first-pitch strike and 53.2% in-zone rates since the date of his MLB debut rank fourth and 14th — Pfaadt has a 5.5% walk rate between the majors and minors over the past four seasons combined. He also has a four-seamer/sweeper/sinker combination that is flat-out nasty against right-handed hitters (26.6% K rate, versus 20.5% against lefties).
How he could break out: Better luck is the easy answer, as Pfaadt’s 64.5% strand rate and .315 BABIP last season were second- and fifth-worst among ERA qualifiers, but the true path to greatness is a stronger pitch mix against left-handed hitters. Corrections to those rates could vault him into the position’s top 40. Reaching the top 20 requires tweaks to his four-seamer or curveball to counter lefties, who have a wOBA 47 points higher against him through two seasons.
A.J. Puk, Arizona Diamondbacks
2024 Player Rater: RP58/210th overall
2024 fantasy point total: 206 (RP59)
His strengths: Puk’s miserable four-start stint with the Miami Marlins to begin last season, coupled with the shoulder injury that cost him three-plus weeks immediately thereafter, masked how truly brilliant his finish to 2024 was. Over the final three months, he had an 0.99 ERA, a 43.6% strikeout rate, a .128 BAA, a 1.35 FIP to back the performance up, and a 5.3% walk rate to match the marked improvement he showed in terms of control the season before.
How he could break out: His path to fantasy greatness lies in his bullpen role, as he needs to be in place to pile up saves, or at least holds. Puk’s 95-96 mph fastball and slider generate excellent whiff rates, fueling a hefty number of strikeouts, and it’s an easy case to make that he and Justin Martinez should form a formidable, underrated one-two punch at the back end of the Diamondbacks’ bullpen.
Cristopher Sanchez, Philadelphia Phillies
2024 Player Rater: SP46/191st overall
2024 fantasy point total: 342 (SP39)
His strengths: Improvements he made to his changeup in 2023 have quickly transformed him into one of the game’s more underrated pitchers. Statcast graded Sanchez with the league’s best changeup last season and his 91 strikeouts with them were the most by any pitcher. His control has improved markedly during that same time (13th-ranked 5.2% walk rate from 2023-24), and his heavy ground ball lean (58.3% rate last year) minimizes his risk of damaging innings.
How he could break out: He’s kind of doing it already, having fanned 12 out of 30 hitters through his three spring starts. Sanchez, a pitcher constantly refining his pitch repertoire, has most notably seen his sinker go from a 92.1 mph average velocity in 2023, to 94.5 in 2024, to 96.9 in the two of those starts measured by Statcast. He’ll take a big leap forward if that fuels even a hint of a higher whiff rate with the pitch.
Spencer Schwellenbach, Atlanta Braves
2024 Player Rater: SP47/195th overall
2024 fantasy point total: 279 (SP67)
His strengths: Schwellenbach, a high school and college shortstop (plus Nebraska’s 2021 closer) who didn’t even make his first pitching start until 21 months after being drafted due to Tommy John surgery, sure looked like a future fantasy ace in his 2024 rookie year. He flashed five-plus pitches, two of which had at least a 40% whiff rate (curveball and splitter), sported a 4.6% walk rate in the majors, and posted a 2.73 ERA and 27.5% K rate across his 13 second-half starts.
How he could break out: Most every question Schwellenbach faces as he enters his sophomore season relates to how a pitcher with 65 total professional innings across his first 2½ years fares after a 168⅔ inning campaign like he had last year. Fortunately, he’s showing no ill effects of the workload spike during spring training. More cutter or curveball reliance against lefties, to narrow what was a 66-point wOBA split, would be a nice added touch.
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Driven since Week 1 loss, red-hot Tide rout Vols
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4 hours agoon
October 19, 2025By
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Andrea AdelsonOct 18, 2025, 11:52 PM ET
Close- ACC reporter.
- Joined ESPN.com in 2010.
- Graduate of the University of Florida.
TUSCALOOSA, Ala. — After Alabama beat Tennessee 37-20 on Saturday night, coach Kalen DeBoer wanted to make sure his players enjoyed their postgame cigars to celebrate another win in their storied rivalry.
There is still a long road to go, but what Alabama has done to get to this point is worthy of a celebratory cigar, too.
After a Week 1 loss to Florida State, Alabama has stacked one victory after the next, winning six straight, finding an edge and different ways to motivate themselves. Proving they were better than that team that opened in Tallahassee is certainly one of those reasons. But there were others — proving they could win on the road and doing so against Georgia. Beating Vanderbilt after losing to them last year. And Saturday night, regaining the edge against Tennessee after losing to them last year, too.
The result? Alabama is the first team in SEC history to win four straight games, all against ranked teams, with no bye week mixed in, according to ESPN Research.
“They’ve got an edge to them still, and haven’t lost it since the beginning there after week one. That’s hard to do,” DeBoer said afterward. “It’s really hard to do. As you go through the weeks, there’s been enough reasons, different motivation factors, to get up for games, and our guys, each and every week, find a way to do it. So we’ve got to keep the pedal down.”
The key turning point happened just before halftime. Tennessee was on the Alabama 1-yard line with eight seconds left in the quarter, down 16-7. Joey Aguilar dropped back and threw right toward tight end Miles Kitselman, who appeared to be open in the end zone. But Zabien Brown jumped the route and intercepted the pass, returning it 99 yards for the score to give Alabama a 23-7 lead.
“The ball fell right in my hand,” Brown said. “I [saw] open field and I started running. I’m like, if I get tackled, the time [will] go out. So I gotta find a way to get in that [end] zone.”
It was a triumphant day for the defense, which had struggled at times to limit explosive plays throughout the course of the season and put their stamp on a game. Alabama also had a safety in the first half and made life uncomfortable for Aguilar all night. Tennessee came into the game as the highest scoring offense in the SEC, but Alabama held them to a season-low 20 points and 410 total yards. The Vols only scored on two of their five red zone chances.
Alabama fans lit their cigars in stadium well before the game ended. It was Alabama’s 11th straight home win in the series, and also ran DeBoer’s record at home to 11-0 since his arrival last year. He has also won six straight since switching to a black hoodie on the sideline, something that has become a major talking point among the Alabama fan base.
When asked if he was giving the fans what they wanted by continuing to wear the black hoodie, DeBoer said, “This isn’t new. I’ve done this for years. But we’re going to ride the momentum. I told the guys not to get any [cigar] ashes on it.”
The Crimson Tide sit at 4-0 in SEC play and are one of two unbeaten teams left in the league, along with Texas A&M. Up next is a trip to South Carolina before an open date.
“I think we understand the week of preparation gets you mentally in the right space to where you’re confident going out on the football field,” DeBoer said. “When you’re confident, you got a little more energy. And that’s really what I see with our guys, and that fires me up.”
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ND’s Freeman hails Love-Price duo: ‘So talented’
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4 hours agoon
October 19, 2025By
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Adam RittenbergOct 19, 2025, 01:10 AM ET
Close- College football reporter; joined ESPN in 2008. Graduate of Northwestern University.
SOUTH BEND, Ind. — When the clock expired on a 34-24 win over USC, Notre Dame took a dig at its West Coast rival by playing a modified version of the song “California Love,” which began instead with the lyric “Jeremiyah Love.”
The serenade for USC players and coaches as they left a rain-soaked Notre Dame Stadium certainly didn’t sound good, but it wasn’t as bad as facing the actual Jeremiyah Love and his sidekick, Jadarian Price. Love rolled up 228 rushing yards, the most by a Notre Dame player in the 512-game history of Notre Dame Stadium, and the most by a Notre Dame player against USC in the storied rivalry. Price added 87 rushing yards and a 100-yard kick return touchdown that put the 13th-ranked Irish ahead for good.
Notre Dame kept its College Football Playoff hopes alive with its third straight win against USC in the final scheduled game of the historic intersectional rivalry.
“It’s not very common in college, not very common in life, to see two guys that are so talented, that deserve the ball in their hands every snap, put the team above themselves, and then make the most of their opportunities,” coach Marcus Freeman said. “They’re not pouting, they’re each other’s biggest supporter.
“That might be one of the hardest things we ask our plays to do — put team before me. Everything outside of here says, ‘No, you come before team.'”
After getting only 20 touches combined in a season-opening loss at Miami, Love and Price knew they would be featured against No. 20 USC, as the forecast called for heavy rain. Love raced 63 yards on his first carry and finished Notre Dame’s opening drive with a 12-yard touchdown run. On the team’s next scoring drive, Price had 56 rushing yards and a 16-yard touchdown.
“We believe that every game goes through the running back room,” Love said, “so if we’re on our stuff, the offense is going to be on their stuff. Just be great backs, be great teammates.”
Price’s biggest play came on special teams, after USC had taken a 24-21 lead with 4:32 left in the third quarter. He initially erred by going outside his blocker on the kick return, but eventually found room and sliced through USC’s defense.
He became the first Notre Dame player with multiple 100-yard kick returns, as he had one Sept. 20 late in the first half against Purdue. Price also had a 99-yard scoring return against USC in 2023 on the same field.
“I am sitting there like, ‘God, I get you, now,'” Freeman said, smiling. “Notre Dame, there is something [here]. At that moment I’m like, ‘What is going on?’ … That was a huge play for this team.”
A preseason All-America selection, Love only received 14 total touches — 10 rushes and four receptions — in Notre Dame’s season-opening loss at Miami, while Price had just six carries against the Hurricanes. But both backs have seen their workload increase as Notre Dame shapes its offensive identity around them.
“It’s really dangerous,” Price said. “We start with the run game.”
USC answered for much of the night with its passing attack, which piled up 328 yards. But after converting a third-and-9 with a 42-yard pass from Jayden Maiava to Makai Lemon into Notre Dame territory, USC called for a wide receiver option pass, and Lemon lost the ball, recovered by Irish linebacker Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa.
“Stupid call,” coach Lincoln Riley said. “It was a stupid call.”
Notre Dame and USC met for the 96th time Saturday night, but the future of the series is in doubt despite a desire on both sides to continue. The schools have differing views on the length of a future scheduling agreement and where games are played.
The rivalry hasn’t lost its zest, as players and coaches barked at each other after the game, and several USC players were whisked away as the Irish gathered to sing their alma mater.
“This is the biggest intersectional rivalry in college football,” Notre Dame linebacker Jaylen Sneed said. “It just means more to us. … It should still be played. It’s a game that I circle every year on my calendar, and I think everybody else does.”
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Projecting the CFP top 12 after Week 8: Big move for Bama
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4 hours agoon
October 19, 2025By
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On Sunday, the 13 members of the College Football Playoff selection committee will do something they’ve never done before — they’re going to meet for two days at the Gaylord Texan Resort in Grapevine, Texas, for what they’re calling a “level set” meeting. It’s an early opportunity for the entire group to get together and discuss what they’ve seen so far without releasing a ranking.
And they saw a lot in Week 8.
Undefeated Miami went down in a stunning loss at home to Louisville. Undefeated Ole Miss went down. Undefeated Texas Tech went down. Undefeated Memphis went down. And Alabama made a case to move up.
There was a lot of movement in Week 8, and the committee members will do their own mock ranking to help the new members better understand the process. They will use the results to-date, but the first of six real rankings won’t be revealed until Nov. 4. The jockeying for top seeds, first-round byes and first-round home games continues, but Week 8’s top 12 projection is a snapshot of who has the early edge if the ranking were released today.
Projecting the top 12
Why they could be here: The Buckeyes’ grip on the top spot got tighter after Miami’s home loss to Louisville on Friday night, but the Hoosiers are on their heels. Ohio State beat Wisconsin with ease, earning its third Big Ten road win. The Buckeyes entered Saturday ranked in the top five in offensive and defensive efficiencies — and No. 2 in total efficiency — according to ESPN Analytics. They were also No. 2 in Game Control and No. 3 in Strength of Record — all metrics that indicate the total package the committee is looking for with eye test and résumé.
Why they could be lower: There would be some committee members who consider Indiana for the top spot, as the undefeated Hoosiers’ road win at Oregon remains the best in the country. IU is on par with Ohio State statistically, ranking No. 1 in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric and No. 3 in Game Control. Ohio State’s nonconference win against Texas, though, would loom large in the room as a separating factor.
Need to know: Ohio State and Indiana are on track to face each other in the Big Ten title game. If that comes to fruition and they are both undefeated, the loser of the game can still earn a top-four seed and a first-round bye because those spots are no longer reserved for conference champions. ESPN Analytics gives Ohio State at least a 50% chance to win each of its remaining games and the best chance in the league to reach the Big Ten championship.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 29 at Michigan. The Buckeyes are trying to avoid a fifth straight loss to their rivals.
Why they could be here: Indiana moved up one spot after beating Michigan State and as a result of Miami losing to Louisville, but the Hoosiers are here because they won at Oregon on Oct. 11. The double-digit win snapped the Ducks’ 18-game home winning streak and legitimized IU’s playoff hopes. More than that, it put the Hoosiers in contention for a top-four seed and first-round bye. They continued to build upon that Saturday against the Spartans, earning their fourth straight Big Ten win, including two on the road. One of the biggest differences between IU and Ohio State in the eyes of the committee would be the Buckeyes’ nonconference win against Texas, which trumps IU’s wins against Old Dominion, Kennesaw State and Indiana State.
Why they could be higher: Indiana’s win against Oregon is still better than Ohio State’s best win, and the Hoosiers entered Week 8 ranked No. 1 in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric. That means the average top 25 opponent would have just an 11% chance to achieve the same 7-0 record against the same opponents. The committee also considers common opponents, and while Ohio State beat Illinois with ease 34-16, Indiana beat the Illini in historic fashion 63-10.
Need to know: Indiana has the second-best chance to reach the Big Ten title game behind Ohio State, according to ESPN Analytics. The Hoosiers have at least a 70% chance to win each of their remaining games.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 8 at Penn State. It’s certainly not the obstacle it appeared to be a month ago, but it’s still the most difficult road trip remaining and a tougher environment to win in than Maryland.
Why they could be here: With the win against Tennessee, Alabama has beaten four straight ranked opponents, including Georgia and Missouri on the road. This has been one of the most grueling stretches any team in the country has played, and Alabama hasn’t just won — it’s gotten better each week. Since the inception of the CFP, the committee has never shied away from ranking a one-loss team ahead of an undefeated team if it has played better against better competition, and the Tide has done that.
Why they could be lower: The loss to Florida State did happen, and the Noles have since spiraled into irrelevance in the national picture and the ACC race. Texas A&M has a better nonconference win at Notre Dame, while Alabama beat a beleaguered 2-5 Wisconsin team at home on Sept. 13.
Need to know: Alabama entered Week 8 ranked No. 2 in ESPN’s Strength of Schedule metric, well above No. 21-ranked Texas A&M.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 vs. Oklahoma. Alabama won’t face a quarterback better than John Mateer in the second half of the season. Rival Auburn continues to struggle, and LSU still seems incapable of putting together a complete performance.
Why they could be here: Texas A&M is still undefeated — the only one left in the SEC — but it hasn’t racked up the statement wins like Alabama. And Saturday’s 45-42 victory against a 2-5 Arkansas team didn’t come easily. The Aggies allowed 527 total yards, including 268 on the ground. Still, the Aggies earned their second road triumph of the season, a double-digit victory against a pesky Arkansas team playing inspired football under interim coach Bobby Petrino. Texas A&M entered Week 8 No. 2 in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric, and the 41-40 win at Notre Dame is a big reason why. It’s the Aggies’ lone win against a ranked opponent.
Why they could be higher: If the committee keeps the Aggies ahead of Bama, it will be because of the Tide’s season-opening loss to FSU and Texas A&M’s win at Notre Dame.
Need to know: Texas A&M and Alabama don’t play each other during the regular season but could meet in the SEC title game — if the Aggies survive a more difficult back half of the season. Texas A&M still has three tough road games against LSU, Missouri and Texas.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 at Texas. A Friday night road trip against a ranked rival is a tricky way to end the season.
Why they could be here: The Bulldogs have two wins over what should be CFP Top 25 opponents in Tennessee and Ole Miss, and some committee members will consider the three-point loss to Alabama on Sept. 27 a better loss than Miami’s home loss to Louisville after a bye. The head-to-head result will keep Georgia behind the Tide, though, as long as their records remain the same. Saturday’s win against previously undefeated Ole Miss is the Bulldogs’ best victories of the season and one of the better ones in the country.
Why they could be lower: Miami’s loss to Louisville wasn’t a bad loss, but it was a poor performance. There could still be some committee members who believe Miami’s overall résumé is better than Georgia’s with nonconference wins against Notre Dame, South Florida and Florida. Georgia’s nonconference triumphs are over Marshall and Austin Peay. And prior to the Louisville game, Miami was playing better defense more consistently than the Bulldogs.
Need to know: With Georgia Tech’s win at Duke on Saturday, Georgia’s in-state rival is on track to reach the ACC championship game. If Georgia can capture the regular-season finale between the two schools, it could wind up being one of its best wins in the back half of the season.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 vs. Texas. The Longhorns will likely be the last ranked SEC opponent the Bulldogs face.
Why they could be here: The loss to Louisville will be less of a problem in the committee meeting room than how Miami lost. The four turnovers from Carson Beck — plus converting just five of 12 third downs — are the kinds of stats former coaches and players in the room will bring up. There will also be a respect, though, for one-loss Louisville, which would probably be a CFP Top 25 team. Miami’s overall schedule will still carry a lot of weight with the committee, as wins against Notre Dame, South Florida and Florida are a significantly tougher nonconference lineup than most other contenders.
Why they could be lower: Ole Miss had a better loss in Week 8 on the road to Georgia than the Canes’ home defeat by Louisville.
Need to know: The Canes’ chances of earning a first-round bye as a top four seed took a hit with their loss to Louisville. In the straight seeding format, the selection committee’s top four teams will earn the top-four seeds — they are no longer reserved for conference champions. Miami could finish as a one-loss ACC champ, but still finish outside of the top four. The selection committee compares common opponents, and will consider that Miami beat Florida State and Alabama did not, but the Tide could win the overall debate with a stronger résumé. The committee also considers how teams lost, and the Canes made too many mistakes on both sides of the ball against Louisville, but the Cardinals are a talented team that could be in the CFP Top 25 on Selection Day.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 at SMU. This will be the first time Miami has left its state. The Mustangs beat Clemson 35-24 on Saturday, but the Tigers were without starting quarterback Cade Klubnik.
Why they could be here: A close road loss to a CFP contender isn’t going to knock the Rebels out of the field, but their overall résumé could use a boost after LSU’s loss to Vanderbilt. It helped a bit that Tulane found a way to escape Army on Saturday — though the Green Wave needed two touchdown passes in the final two minutes to do it. Tulane remains in contention for a playoff bid as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions, and Ole Miss beat the Green Wave soundly, 45-10 on Sept. 20. The selection committee pays close attention to how these games are won and lost, and will have seen Ole Miss struggle with Washington State and its inability to make some critical defensive stops against Georgia.
Why they could be lower: Statistically, Oregon has been the more complete team, entering Week 8 No. 5 in total efficiency while Ole Miss was No. 30. The Ducks were No. 4 in the country in points margin, and No. 13 in scoring defense. Ole Miss has also been one of the nation’s most penalized teams, ranking No. 118 with 7.83 per game and No. 126 with 74 penalty yards per game, while Oregon is in the top 10 in both categories for fewest penalties and yards. According to ESPN Analytics, Ole Miss also ranked No. 63 in schedule strength while Oregon was No. 25.
Need to know: The Rebels are under some pressure to beat Oklahoma in Week 9 because a 10-2 record might not be good enough for an at-large bid. Ole Miss would have lost two of its top three chances to impress the committee against ranked opponents — the one they got was against LSU.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 25 at Oklahoma. The Sooners rebounded from their loss to Texas with a win on Saturday at South Carolina. It will be the second straight road trip for Ole Miss.
Why they could be here: The Ducks returned to their dominating form, albeit against a now 3-4 Rutgers team. Oregon has flourished against lesser competition all season, leaving no doubt it’s the better team and padding its stats along the way against teams like 1-6 Oklahoma State and FCS Montana State. They needed double overtime to win at Penn State, though, and lost at home by double digits to Indiana. Quarterback Dante Moore threw two interceptions and was sacked six times against the Hoosiers. Their best wins so far have come on the road against Northwestern and Penn State, but selection committee members also consider the extraordinary amount of travel involved, including the nearly 3,000 miles in Week 8 to Piscataway, N.J.
Why they could be higher: Oregon has simply played better more consistently than Ole Miss, and the Ducks entered Week 8 ranked No. 5 in ESPN’s Game Control metric.
Need to know: If Oregon runs the table and finishes as a one-loss team without a conference title, this No. 8 spot would still give the Ducks a first-round home game as the higher seed, pitted against No. 9 Oklahoma in this case.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 22 vs. USC. Road trips to Iowa and Washington aren’t gimmes — and Minnesota should be bowl bound — but the Trojans will likely be the last ranked opponent the Ducks face.
Why they could be here: The Sooners earned their first true road win of the season on Saturday at South Carolina. The win against Michigan continues to be a valuable nonconference result, but the committee would probably be more impressed with Miami’s overall résumé. The Sooners’ narrow home win against Auburn has taken a hit over the past few weeks. Oklahoma’s win against South Carolina was further proof that quarterback John Mateer remains one of the most talented players in the country, as he added a 40-yard punt to his résumé in his second game back from hand surgery.
Why they could be lower: Georgia Tech is undefeated and that would be the biggest reason the committee would flip the two. Oklahoma’s defense has been significantly better against a tougher schedule.
Need to know: The Sooners end the season with five straight ranked opponents, including back-to-back November trips to Tennessee and Alabama.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 at Alabama. The Sooners will have a much-needed bye week before traveling to Alabama.
Why they could be here: With LSU’s loss and Georgia Tech’s win at Duke, the door opened for the Yellow Jackets to enter the field. Georgia Tech has two road wins against ACC teams over .500 (at Wake Forest and now at Duke). Its out-of-conference schedule includes wins over power conferences foes Colorado and Virginia Tech, but that pair is just 5-9 combined. None of the Yellow Jackets’ opponents are currently ranked, and entering this week, Georgia Tech’s schedule strength was No. 94 in the country. Still, the selection committee would see on its game film cut-ups that Haynes King threw for 205 yards against Duke and ran for a game-high 120 yards. It’s a talented team that continues to find ways to win, including with a school-record 95-yard scoop n’ score on Saturday.
Why they could be lower: The Jackets have found ways to win, but they haven’t exactly asserted themselves against unranked opponents. Their only double-digit win came against the 2-5 Hokies. Georgia Tech needed overtime to beat Wake Forest, 30-29, and the committee would know that the ACC conceded an officiating mistake in that game that would have given the Demon Deacons a critical first down. The missed call allowed Georgia Tech to extend its drive and win in overtime.
Need to know: Georgia Tech might not have any wins against CFP Top 25 teams on Selection Day, but it wouldn’t matter if the Jackets locked up a spot as the ACC champion. It would be a part of the committee’s deliberations, though, if Georgia Tech finished as a two-loss ACC runner-up, with those losses coming to the ACC winner and rival Georgia.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 vs. Georgia. The Yellow Jackets took their rival to eight overtimes last year before losing, 44-42, in Athens.
Why they could be here: The Cougars beat their toughest opponent to-date, a ranked Utah team that now has two losses. BYU is the only undefeated team remaining in the Big 12, and continues to find ways to win. They’ve also got three road wins (East Carolina, Colorado and Arizona), and benefited from Texas Tech losing to ASU.
Why they could be lower: Wins against FCS Portland State, 2-4 Stanford, 3-4 Colorado and 2-5 West Virginia don’t stack up with the other contenders. BYU also needed double overtime to win at unranked, three-loss Arizona on Oct. 11.
Need to know: BYU would lock up a spot as the Big 12 champion, but if the Cougars can manage to stay undefeated until the conference title game, they would keep their hopes alive for earning an at-large bid as the Big 12 runner-up. The committee would consider how the title game unfolded, and if BYU lost a close game or in convincing fashion. It helps BYU that Cincinnati is having a good season and could be a CFP Top 25 team, but that’s a double edged sword because the Bearcats are also in their way.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 8 at Texas Tech. Even though the Red Raiders lost on Saturday, they’re still the most talented team left on the Cougars’ schedule.
Why they could be here: The Irish have won five straight since their 0-2 start, but it’s the way they have played during that stretch that would impress the committee enough to consider them for a top-12 spot. Notre Dame put it all together against USC, its first win against a ranked opponent this season. The Irish won the old-school way, with a strong running game and a defense that has shown measurable improvement in each of the past four games. Special teams was also a factor against the Trojans.
Why they could be lower: Two losses. Period. And it doesn’t help that the first was to Miami, which lost to Louisville.
Need to know: If the playoff were today, Notre Dame would be bumped out to make room for the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion, which is guaranteed a spot in the 12-team field. Right now that team — South Florida as the projected American champion — would be ranked outside the top 12. As an independent, Notre Dame can’t lock up a spot in the playoff as one of the five conference champions, so its only path is through an at-large bid.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 at Pitt. Notre Dame is projected to win each of its remaining games, but this one is on the road against a team that found a way to win at Florida State.
Bracket
Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Alabama (SEC champ)
No. 4 Texas A&M
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 South Florida (American champ) at No. 5 Georgia
No. 11 BYU (Big 12 champ) at No. 6 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 10 Georgia Tech at No. 7 Ole Miss
No. 9 Oklahoma at No. 8 Oregon
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 South Florida/No. 5 Georgia winner vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
No. 11 BYU/No. 6 Miami winner vs. No. 3 Alabama
No. 10 Georgia Tech/No. 7 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Oklahoma/No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
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