NHL playoff projections: Canucks or Flames for the final Western wild card?
The Vancouver Canucks were the regular-season champions of the Pacific Division in 2023-24, and won their first-round playoff matchup against the Nashville Predators. The Calgary Flames finished 17 points out of a wild-card spot last season, and during last season and the offseason, traded away Jacob Markstrom, Noah Hanifin, Elias Lindholm, Nikita Zadorov and Chris Tanev.
One might say that expectations were different for the two clubs before the season, which is backed up by the preseason point total over/unders from ESPN BET: the Canucks were listed at 99.5, with the Flames at 81.5
Nevertheless, the two Western Canadian teams are battling for the final Western Conference wild-card spot with a little over a month left in the season. On Wednesday night, the they’ll face off in Calgary (9 p.m. ET, ESPN+). Heading into the game, Calgary has 70 points and 24 regulation wins in 63 games, and Vancouver has 69 and 23 through 63. This will be the final head-to-match matchup between the clubs.
Of the Flames’ remaining games beyond Wednesday, 10 out of 18 are against teams in a playoff position. For the Canucks, it’s nine out of the final 17.
Stathletes projects the Flames to finish in that coveted wild-card position, with 89.6 points. Vancouver is projected at 88.1 points, behind Calgary and also the St. Louis Blues and Utah Hockey Club.
Given the tight margins, every game counts, particularly one against a fellow wild-card bubble team.
There is a lot of runway left until the final day of the season April 17, and we’ll help you keep track of it all on the NHL playoff watch. As we traverse the final stretch, we’ll provide details on all the playoff races — along with the teams jockeying for position in the 2025 NHL draft lottery.
Note: Playoff chances are via Stathletes.
Jump ahead:
Current playoff matchups
Today’s schedule
Yesterday’s scores
Expanded standings
Race for No. 1 pick
Current playoff matchups
Eastern Conference
A1 Florida Panthers vs. WC1 Ottawa Senators
A2 Toronto Maple Leafs vs. A3 Tampa Bay Lightning
M1 Washington Capitals vs. WC2 Columbus Blue Jackets
M2 Carolina Hurricanes vs. M3 New Jersey Devils
Western Conference
C1 Winnipeg Jets vs. WC2 Calgary Flames
C2 Dallas Stars vs. C3 Colorado Avalanche
P1 Vegas Golden Knights vs. WC1 Minnesota Wild
P2 Edmonton Oilers vs. P3 Los Angeles Kings
Wednesday’s games
Note: All times ET. All games not on TNT or NHL Network are available to stream on ESPN+ (local blackout restrictions apply).
Buffalo Sabres at Detroit Red Wings, 7:30 p.m. (TNT)
Vancouver Canucks at Calgary Flames, 9 p.m.
Anaheim Ducks at Utah Hockey Club, 10 p.m. (TNT)
Montreal Canadiens at Seattle Kraken, 10:30 p.m.
Tuesday’s scoreboard
Boston Bruins 3, Florida Panthers 2
New Jersey Devils 5, Columbus Blue Jackets 3
Ottawa Senators 5, Philadelphia Flyers 2
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Vegas Golden Knights 2 (OT)
Carolina Hurricanes 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 1
Minnesota Wild 2, Colorado Avalanche 1 (SO)
Winnipeg Jets 2, New York Rangers 1
Montreal Canadiens 4, Vancouver Canucks 2
Washington Capitals 7, Anaheim Ducks 4
Los Angeles Kings 4, New York Islanders 1
Nashville Predators 3, San Jose Sharks 2
Expanded standings
Atlantic Division
Points: 83
Regulation wins: 34
Playoff position: A1
Games left: 17
Points pace: 104.7
Next game: @ TOR (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 81
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: A2
Games left: 18
Points pace: 103.8
Next game: vs. FLA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 78
Regulation wins: 32
Playoff position: A3
Games left: 18
Points pace: 99.9
Next game: @ PHI (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 73
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 18
Points pace: 93.5
Next game: vs. BOS (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 95.2%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 68
Regulation wins: 22
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 87.1
Next game: @ SEA (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 9.9%
Tragic number: 35
Points: 68
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 16
Points pace: 84.5
Next game: @ OTT (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 5.7%
Tragic number: 31
Points: 66
Regulation wins: 22
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 84.6
Next game: vs. BUF (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 6.7%
Tragic number: 33
Points: 56
Regulation wins: 21
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 19
Points pace: 72.9
Next game: @ DET (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 25
Metro Division
Points: 94
Regulation wins: 36
Playoff position: M1
Games left: 17
Points pace: 118.6
Next game: @ LA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 82
Regulation wins: 34
Playoff position: M2
Games left: 17
Points pace: 103.5
Next game: vs. DET (Friday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 76
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: M3
Games left: 16
Points pace: 94.4
Next game: vs. EDM (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 94%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 70
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 18
Points pace: 89.7
Next game: vs. VGK (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 41.6%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 68
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 17
Points pace: 85.8
Next game: @ MIN (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 29.9%
Tragic number: 33
Points: 65
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 83.3
Next game: vs. EDM (Friday)
Playoff chances: 14.5%
Tragic number: 32
Points: 62
Regulation wins: 17
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 16
Points pace: 77.0
Next game: vs. TB (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 2.3%
Tragic number: 25
Points: 62
Regulation wins: 17
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 15
Points pace: 75.9
Next game: vs. STL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0.3%
Tragic number: 23
Central Division
Points: 94
Regulation wins: 37
Playoff position: C1
Games left: 16
Points pace: 116.8
Next game: vs. DAL (Friday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 86
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: C2
Games left: 18
Points pace: 110.2
Next game: @ WPG (Friday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 81
Regulation wins: 34
Playoff position: C3
Games left: 16
Points pace: 100.6
Next game: @ CGY (Friday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 78
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 17
Points pace: 98.4
Next game: vs. NYR (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 91%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 69
Regulation wins: 22
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 17
Points pace: 87.1
Next game: @ PIT (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 29.8%
Tragic number: 34
Points: 67
Regulation wins: 20
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 85.8
Next game: vs. ANA (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 25.9%
Tragic number: 34
Points: 57
Regulation wins: 21
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 73.0
Next game: @ ANA (Friday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 24
Points: 49
Regulation wins: 17
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 17
Points pace: 61.8
Next game: @ SJ (Thursday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 14
Pacific Division
Points: 83
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: P1
Games left: 18
Points pace: 106.3
Next game: @ CBJ (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 78
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: P2
Games left: 18
Points pace: 99.9
Next game: @ NJ (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.6%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 77
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: P3
Games left: 19
Points pace: 100.2
Next game: vs. WSH (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 97.2%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 70
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 19
Points pace: 91.1
Next game: vs. VAN (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 35.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 69
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 88.4
Next game: @ CGY (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 20.3%
Tragic number: 36
Points: 63
Regulation wins: 20
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 80.7
Next game: @ UTA (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 0.3%
Tragic number: 30
Points: 58
Regulation wins: 22
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 17
Points pace: 73.2
Next game: vs. MTL (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 23
Points: 43
Regulation wins: 12
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 16
Points pace: 53.4
Next game: vs. CHI (Thursday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 6
Race for the No. 1 pick
The NHL uses a draft lottery to determine the order of the first round, so the team that finishes in last place is not guaranteed the No. 1 selection. As of 2021, a team can move up a maximum of 10 spots if it wins the lottery, so only 11 teams are eligible for the No. 1 pick. Full details on the process are here. Matthew Schaefer, a defenseman for the OHL’s Erie Otters, is No. 1 on the draft board.
Points: 43
Regulation wins: 12
Points: 49
Regulation wins: 17
Points: 56
Regulation wins: 21
Points: 57
Regulation wins: 21
Points: 58
Regulation wins: 22
Points: 62
Regulation wins: 17
Points: 62
Regulation wins: 17
Points: 63
Regulation wins: 20
Points: 65
Regulation wins: 23
Points: 66
Regulation wins: 22
Points: 67
Regulation wins: 20
Points: 68
Regulation wins: 21
Points: 68
Regulation wins: 23
Points: 68
Regulation wins: 29
Points: 69
Regulation wins: 22
Points: 69
Regulation wins: 23
SUNRISE, Fla. — Auston Matthews hadn’t scored against Florida in more than a year. He ended the drought — and might have also saved Toronto’s season.
Matthews got his first goal of the series to break a scoreless tie in the third period, Joseph Woll stopped 22 shots and the Toronto Maple Leafs kept their season alive by beating the Florida Panthers 2-0 in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference semifinal series Friday night.
“Just a gutsy, gutsy win,” Matthews said.
Game 7 is Sunday night in Toronto. The winner will face Carolina in the East final.
“We played a simple game tonight,” Leafs coach Craig Berube said.
Simple, but effective. Toronto blocked 31 shots, plus killed off all four Florida power plays.
Max Pacioretty added an insurance goal for the Maple Leafs, who improved to 4-2 when facing elimination since the start of the 2023 playoffs.
Sergei Bobrovsky stopped 15 shots for the Panthers, the defending Stanley Cup champions who oddly are only 8-7 in potential closeout games over the past three postseasons.
“You win or you learn,” Panthers captain Aleksander Barkov said. “Tonight, we learned.”
Florida coach Paul Maurice is 5-0 in Game 7s, including the final game of last season’s Stanley Cup Final. The Panthers are 3-1 all time in the ultimate game of a series — 2-0 on the road — while the Maple Leafs have lost each of their past six Game 7s. Of those, four were against Boston and now-Panthers forward Brad Marchand.
“We’re not going to show any video of those Game 7s,” Maurice said. “We’ll look at our game tonight and see where we can get better.”
It was the 68th game of this season’s playoffs — and only the second that was 0-0 after 40 minutes. The other was Wednesday night, when Edmonton eliminated Vegas with a 1-0 victory in overtime in Game 5 of that Western Conference semifinal series.
Toronto had five goals in Game 1, four more in Game 2 and had three by the early goings of the second period of Game 3. Add it up, and that was 12 in basically the first seven periods of the series.
From there, Toronto got basically nothing — until Matthews broke through.
The Toronto captain was 0-for-31 on shots against Florida this season, including the regular season. Bobrovsky had stopped 85 of the last 86 shot attempts he had seen in the series. And the Maple Leafs hadn’t had the lead in basically the equivalent of 3½ games — 216 minutes, 30 seconds, to be precise.
But when a pass got away from Florida’s Aaron Ekblad, Matthews had a slight opening — and that was all he needed. A low shot skittered along the ice and beat Bobrovsky for a 1-0 lead with 13:40 left.
“It’s a big win, from top to bottom,” Matthews said. “We earned that.”
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