Tesla (TSLA) Q1 delivery estimate on Wall Street is still at 418,000 EVs, but they are dreaming

Published

8 months ago

March 12, 2025

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Tesla (TSLA) delivery consensus from Wall Street is still at 418,000 electric vehicles in Q1 2025, but they are dreaming.

Deliveries are currently tracking about 40,000 units lower.

Tesla delivered just short of 387,000 vehicles in Q1 2024 and 1.8 million vehicles in 2024—the automaker’s first year of deliveries being down since it achieved high-volume production.

Now, analysts are wondering if deliveries are going down for Tesla in 2025.

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Wall Street has been quite optimistic so far. The Wall Street delivery consensus for Tesla’s Q1 2025 started the year at 464,000 deliveries, which is slightly down from Q4 2024, but it is up a massive 20% year-over-year.

However, analysts have been gradually updating their estimates, and the consensus is now it sits at 418,000 deliveries, which would still be up 8% over Q1 2024.

That’s surprisingly high for anyone who has been watching Tesla closely this quarter since deliveries have been tracking below Q1 2024.

As of the end of February, Tesla is down roughly 43% in Europe – or about 20,000 units behind Q1 2024. In China, Tesla is trailing about 7,000 units behind where it was last year.

The data is more opaque in the US, but S&P data just released some data based on vehicle registration for January in the US, and Tesla is down 11% or about 4,000 units.

If you have been doing the math, it means that available data shows that Tesla is about 31,000 units behind where it was last quarter in its 3 main markets – with a few weeks left to report in China, a month in Europe, and two months in the US, to be fair.

31,000 units lower than 387,000 would mean 356,000 deliveries in Q1 2025, but there’s obviously still time for Tesla to either catch up or fall further behind.

Wall Street analysts are notoriously slower to update their numbers, but some have been catching up this week.

Guggenheim updated its delivery estimate from 405,000 deliveries to 358,000 units in Q1 2025 today.

JP Morgan also updated its delivery estimate from 444,000 to 355,000 in an update shared with clients today.

Both these firms have bearish outlooks on Tesla’s stock.

Morgan Stanley is one of the most bullish firms on Tesla, and they also came out with a new note today reiterating an overweight rating on Tesla’ stock. Analyst Adam Jonas says that he still sees Tesla’s volume growing 7%, which would put deliveries at 414,000 units this quarter.

As for prediction market Kalshi, which creates estimates based on people betting on Tesla’s delivery results, the estimate currently sits at 324,000 deliveries:

It’s fair to say that delivery predictions for Tesla’s Q1 2025 are currently quite all over the place.

Electrek’s Take

I am sure that the Wall Street consensus will come down by the end of the month because it is incredibly inflated right now.

It should at least be under Q1 2024.

On the other hand, I think the prediction market on Kalshi is probably overly pessimistic, but it’s also not impossible.

Tesla’s US sales this month are a bit of a mystery and they probably didn’t look good if Elon resorted to giving Trump another $100 million and having him do an informercial for the company at the White House.

We have more data coming from insurance registration in China in the coming weeks that should give us a pretty good idea.

Tesla certainly needs to ramp up deliveries of the new Model Y in China in the coming weeks. Otherwise, the Kalshi prediction could become accurate.

What do you think? What’s your prediction for Tesla in Q1 2025? For now, I think it is undoubtedly below 380,000 units and no less than 350,000 units.

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Environment

Trump admin OKs $1B loan for Three Mile Island nuclear reboot

Published

3 hours ago

November 18, 2025

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Three Mile Island loan — By Constellation Energy – CC BY-SA 4.0

The US Department of Energy’s Loan Programs Office (LPO) closed a $1 billion loan to restart Three Mile Island Unit 1, a nuclear reactor at Three Mile Island in Londonderry Township, Pennsylvania.

The money is being loaned to Constellation Energy Generation, which is renaming the 835 megawatt (MW) Three Mile Island Unit 1 the Crane Clean Energy Center. Constellation said in September 2024 that it would restart the reactor under a power purchase agreement with Microsoft, which needs more clean power to feed its growing data-center demand.

The project is estimated to cost around $1.6 billion, and the DOE says the project will create around 600 jobs. The reactor is expected to start generating power again in 2027.

Three Mile Island Unit 1 (in the foreground in the photo above) went offline in 2019 because it could no longer compete with cheaper natural gas, but it wasn’t decommissioned. It’s capable of powering the equivalent of approximately 800,000 homes. It’s on the same site as the Unit 2 reactor (in the background in the photo above) that went into partial nuclear meltdown in 1979, and is known as the worst commercial nuclear accident in US history.

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When asked about the loan’s timing, Greg Beard, senior adviser to the Loan Programs Office, told reporters on a call that it would “lower the cost of capital and make power cheaper for those PJM [Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland] ratepayers.” Data centers are driving up electricity costs for consumers.

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Environment

Ford opens orders for the electric Bronco in China, starting at under $33,000

Published

4 hours ago

November 18, 2025

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Ford opens orders for the electric Bronco in China, starting at under ,000

An affordable Bronco EV? Not for those in the US. Ford opened orders for the electric Bronco in China, starting at under $33,000.

Ford Bronco electric pre-orders open at under $33,000

Ford announced the All-Wheel Drive electric SUV is officially open for pre-sale on Tuesday, starting at RMB 229,800 ($32,300).

The electric Bronco is available in pure electric (EV) and extended range electric vehicle (EREV) options. It’s offered in three variants, priced from RMB 229,800 ($32,300) to RMB 272,800 ($38,400).

All models are All Wheel Drive, while the pure electric version costs an extra 10,000 yuan ($1,400). Ford is offering pre-sale buyers some pretty sweet benefits, including a camping experience package (with an added roof tent), a Mountain Kitchen Multi-Function Tailgate gift, an overnight stay package (for your vehicle), and more.

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The electric Ford Bronco is about the same size as the standard 4-door version sold in the US at 5,025 mm long, 1,960 mm wide, and 1,815 mm tall.

Although it may look the same, the EV version draws power from a 105.4 kWh LFP battery pack from BYD’s FinFreams, providing up to 650 km (404 miles) CLTC driving range.

It’s equipped with two electric motors, one in the front and the other in the rear, producing a combined 445 horsepower (332 kW).

The EREV version combines a 43.7 kWh battery with a 1.5T engine, delivering a pure-electric range of 220 km (137 miles) and a combined CLTC driving range of 1,220 km (758 miles).

Some of the higher trims feature Ford’s Fuyu ADAS system, developed exclusively for buyers in China with a roof-mounted LiDAR and over 30 sensors and cameras. It even features a cool “off-road logbook” that shows drivers over 20 popular routes across China.

The interior is custom-tailored for Chinese buyers with a 15.6″ central infotainment and a smaller driver display screen. It also offers a massive 70″ AR head-up display (HUD).

Unlike the Ford vehicles we’re accustomed to seeing, the electric Bronco includes a 7.5L refrigerator in the center console.

The AWD electric SUV is coming at a critical time as Ford aims to revamp its business in China. Ford is working with local partners on new technologies, designs, and powertrain ideas for global markets.

Ford’s sales in China are down by over 14% through October this year, but new electrified vehicles, including the Bronco, are expected to help turn things around. Ford’s lineup in China mainly consists of gas-powered vehicles, which have quickly fallen out of favor with buyers shifting to more advanced, more efficient, and often lower-priced domestic EVs.

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Environment

Trump administration backs Three Mile Island nuclear restart with $1 billion loan to Constellation

Published

4 hours ago

November 18, 2025

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The cooling towers of the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant in Middletown, Pennsylvania, Oct. 30, 2024.

Danielle DeVries | CNBC

The Trump administration will provide Constellation Energy with a $1 billion loan to restart the Crane Clean Energy Center nuclear plant in Pennsylvania, Department of Energy officials said Tuesday.

Previously known as Three Mile Island Unit 1, the plant is expected to start generating power again in 2027. Constellation unveiled plans to rename and restart the reactor in Sept. 2024 through a power purchase agreement with Microsoft to support the tech company’s data center demand in the region.

Three Mile Island Unit 1 ceased operations in 2019, one of a dozen reactors that closed in recent years as nuclear struggled to compete against cheap natural gas. It sits on the same site as Three Mile Island Unit 2, the reactor that partially melted down in 1979 in the worst nuclear accident in U.S. history.

The loan would cover the majority to the project’s estimated cost of $1.6 billion. The first advance to Constellation is expected in the first quarter of 2026, said Greg Beard, senior advisor to the Energy Department’s Loan Programs Office, in a call with reporters. The loan comes with a guarantee from Constellation that it will protect taxpayer money, Beard said.

Constellation’s stock was up more than 2% in after hours trading on Tuesday.

The control panel in the main control room of the Three Mile Island Nuclear power plant is seen on Oct. 30, 2024 in Middletown, Pennsylvania, U.S.

Danielle DeVries | CNBC

CEO Joe Dominguez hinted at federal financial support previously, telling investors in Sept. 2024 that Constellation would “take a look as we finance the project at loan guarantees and other things that will be available.” Constellation is the largest operator of nuclear plants in the U.S.

When asked why Constellation was receiving the loan now, Beard said Tuesday that Constellation could have completed the project without help from the Energy Department. But the loan will help make electricity cheaper for consumers on the grid operated by PJM Interconnection, which serves more than 65 million people across 13 states, Beard said.

“What’s important for the administration is to show support for affordable, reliable, secure energy in the U.S.,” Beard told reporters. “This loan to Constellation will lower the cost of capital and make power cheaper for those PJM ratepayers.”

Electricity prices

Energy Secretary Chris Wright said last week that his department’s loan office would use most of its money to support the nuclear industry. President Donald Trump signed four executive orders in May that aim to significantly expand new nuclear capacity.

Consumers in many states in the PJM region are facing significant electricity price increases as the rapid increase in demand from artificial intelligence data centers outstrips available supply.

“We want to bring as much net addition of dispatchable, reliable electricity onto the grid to stop these price rises in electricity,” Wright told reporters on Tuesday.

The turbine deck of the Three Mile Island Nuclear power plant is seen on Oct. 30, 2024 in Middletown, Pennsylvania, U.S.

Danielle DeVries | CNBC

The Crane Clean Energy Center is one of three shuttered nuclear plants in the U.S. that are aiming to start generating power again this decade subject to approval by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Crane had the capacity to power more than 800,000 homes when it closed in 2019, according to Constellation.

The Energy Department is supporting the restart of the Palisades nuclear plant in Michigan with a $1.5 billion loan to Holtec International. NextEra Energy announced in October plans to restart the Duane Arnold nuclear plant in Iowa through an agreement Alphabet‘s Google Unit.

When asked whether NextEra will receive a loan for Duane Arnold, Beard told CNBC that Trump’s executive orders direct the Energy Department to “prioritize the restart of nuclear reactors.”