Tesla (TSLA) delivery consensus from Wall Street is still at 418,000 electric vehicles in Q1 2025, but they are dreaming.
Deliveries are currently tracking about 40,000 units lower.
Tesla delivered just short of 387,000 vehicles in Q1 2024 and 1.8 million vehicles in 2024—the automaker’s first year of deliveries being down since it achieved high-volume production.
Now, analysts are wondering if deliveries are going down for Tesla in 2025.
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Wall Street has been quite optimistic so far. The Wall Street delivery consensus for Tesla’s Q1 2025 started the year at 464,000 deliveries, which is slightly down from Q4 2024, but it is up a massive 20% year-over-year.
However, analysts have been gradually updating their estimates, and the consensus is now it sits at 418,000 deliveries, which would still be up 8% over Q1 2024.
That’s surprisingly high for anyone who has been watching Tesla closely this quarter since deliveries have been tracking below Q1 2024.
The data is more opaque in the US, but S&P data just released some data based on vehicle registration for January in the US, and Tesla is down 11% or about 4,000 units.
If you have been doing the math, it means that available data shows that Tesla is about 31,000 units behind where it was last quarter in its 3 main markets – with a few weeks left to report in China, a month in Europe, and two months in the US, to be fair.
31,000 units lower than 387,000 would mean 356,000 deliveries in Q1 2025, but there’s obviously still time for Tesla to either catch up or fall further behind.
Wall Street analysts are notoriously slower to update their numbers, but some have been catching up this week.
Guggenheim updated its delivery estimate from 405,000 deliveries to 358,000 units in Q1 2025 today.
JP Morgan also updated its delivery estimate from 444,000 to 355,000 in an update shared with clients today.
Both these firms have bearish outlooks on Tesla’s stock.
Morgan Stanley is one of the most bullish firms on Tesla, and they also came out with a new note today reiterating an overweight rating on Tesla’ stock. Analyst Adam Jonas says that he still sees Tesla’s volume growing 7%, which would put deliveries at 414,000 units this quarter.
As for prediction market Kalshi, which creates estimates based on people betting on Tesla’s delivery results, the estimate currently sits at 324,000 deliveries:
It’s fair to say that delivery predictions for Tesla’s Q1 2025 are currently quite all over the place.
Electrek’s Take
I am sure that the Wall Street consensus will come down by the end of the month because it is incredibly inflated right now.
It should at least be under Q1 2024.
On the other hand, I think the prediction market on Kalshi is probably overly pessimistic, but it’s also not impossible.
Tesla’s US sales this month are a bit of a mystery and they probably didn’t look good if Elon resorted to giving Trump another $100 million and having him do an informercial for the company at the White House.
We have more data coming from insurance registration in China in the coming weeks that should give us a pretty good idea.
Tesla certainly needs to ramp up deliveries of the new Model Y in China in the coming weeks. Otherwise, the Kalshi prediction could become accurate.
What do you think? What’s your prediction for Tesla in Q1 2025? For now, I think it is undoubtedly below 380,000 units and no less than 350,000 units.
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Xpeng has officially launched its new G7 electric SUV in China, entering the fiercely competitive electric crossover market with a starting price of just 195,800 yuan ($27,325 USD). The G7 is positioned squarely to compete with the Tesla Model Y and the newly unveiled Xiaomi YU7.
It is priced significantly more aggressively than the YU7, which shook up the industry just last week.
The G7, Xpeng’s seventh model, offers an attractive balance of performance, technology, and value, with an emphasis on the latter.
Like Lei Jun with the launch of the YU7 last week, He Xiaopeng was not shy about positioning the G7 against the best-selling Tesla Model Y.
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He compared the specs and pricing with the leading premium crossover. Like Jun, he brought up Tesla’s comparison challenge against the new Model Y:
The G7 is powered by a single rear-wheel-drive electric motor producing 292 horsepower (218 kW), it achieves a 0-100 km/h acceleration in 6.5 seconds. Impressively, the G7 can cover between 602 km and 702 km (374-436 miles) based on China’s generous CLTC standard, depending on the battery option and wheel size.
Two battery options are available, both using lithium iron phosphate (LFP) technology: a 68.5 kWh and a larger 80.8 kWh pack. With Xpeng’s advanced 5C charging technology, drivers can recharge up to 436 km (271 miles) of range in just 10 minutes.
Additionally, the G7 supports Vehicle-to-Load (V2L) functionality, providing up to 6 kW of external power, like the YU7 announced last week.
On the design front, the Xpeng G7 adopts the company’s second-generation “X Face” styling, featuring sleek running lights connected by a continuous LED strip, a closed front end for aerodynamic efficiency, and a distinctive “Star Ring” rear taillight design. Xpeng emphasizes the vehicle’s aerodynamics with a drag coefficient of just 0.238 Cd, slightly higher than the Model Y’s 0.230 Cd.
Inside, the G7 embraces minimalism, replacing conventional buttons with a large 15.6-inch central touchscreen powered by Qualcomm’s Snapdragon 8295 chipset. A standout interior feature is the expansive 87-inch augmented reality head-up display (AR-HUD), developed in collaboration with Huawei, that significantly enhances navigation and driving assistance.
Practicality is emphasized with ample cargo space: an 819-liter trunk that expands to 2,277 liters with the seats folded, plus an additional 120-liter compartment beneath the trunk floor and a modest 42-liter front trunk (frunk).
Xpeng is touting an adaptive AI-driven suspension system that actively adjusts to road conditions within milliseconds, allegedly surpassing comfort benchmarks set by the Mercedes-Benz GLE and Tesla Model Y. Cabin quietness also ranks high on Xpeng’s list of priorities.
Luxury and convenience features include dual 50W wireless phone chargers, a 20-speaker premium audio system, and a panoramic sunroof. Passengers in the second row enjoy premium touches like an 8-inch control screen, individual climate settings, a foldable table, and wireless charging.
The top-tier “Ultra” variant employs two proprietary Turing AI chips capable of delivering a massive 2,250 TOPS of computing power, enabling advanced Level 3 autonomous driving capabilities set to become active via an OTA update by December 2025, pending regulatory approval. Standard versions use dual Nvidia Orin-X chips with 508 TOPS.
The Xpeng G7 starts at 195,800 yuan ($27,325 USD) for the base “Max” variant with 602 km of range, stepping up to 205,800 yuan ($28,720 USD) for the longer-range “Max” (702 km) and topping out at 225,800 yuan ($31,510 USD) for the high-end “Ultra” trim.
Customers ordering the G7 Ultra before July 31 will receive complimentary upgrades including Nappa leather and power door handles.
G7 quickly demonstrated its popularity by securing 10,000 pre-orders in just 46 minutes.
Electrek’s Take
It’s not 200,000 orders within 3 minutes like the YU7, but Xpeng doesn’t have the brand power that Xiaomi has.
Nonetheless, it is pretty impressive.
The price is insane. The specs are competitive with the Model Y, which starts at 263,500 yuan and ranges up to 313,500 yuan ($36,770 – 43,750 USD), but the price starts at about $10,000 USD less.
Between this, the YU7 last week, and a few more models launching this month, the premium crossover segment is about to get crowded in China.
I think the Model Y is in serious trouble in China. We are about to see how it fares with real competition.
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The goal has reportedly been delayed as sources within the Chinese supply chain report Tesla informed suppliers of a 2-month halt on orders.
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AI Invest first reported the news, and The Information later corroborated the report:
Two supplier sources said Tesla has not explicitly stated it will reduce robot parts orders but will wait until the Optimus design adjustments are completed before finalizing a new mass production plan and resuming procurement. The adjustments may take two months. Musk recently stated on social media that the new version of Optimus has seen significant improvements over the second-generation Optimus unveiled in 2023 and now includes voice interaction powered by Grok.
The new reports confirm that Ashok Elluswamy, who was elevated to senior vice-president in charge of self-driving at the same time as Kovac, is taking over responsabilities.
AI Invest reported some concerns from Tesla about Optimus that reportedly trickled down to Chinese suppliers:
According to Tesla’s feedback to suppliers, Optimus still faces hardware challenges, including overheating in some joint motors, low load capacity in dexterous hands, short lifespan of transmission components, and limited battery life. Tesla is currently evaluating samples from multiple dexterous hand suppliers, testing at least three different technical approaches. On the software side, Tesla may use more synthetic data to train the robot model, improving Optimus’ autonomous operation capabilities and success rate in performing complex tasks.
According to the report, Tesla had secured parts to build over 1,000 Optimus robots earlier this year and built quite a few, but they are currently only used “for moving batteries in Tesla’s battery workshops, with efficiency less than half that of human workers.”
The redesign is expected to delay plans by at least two months and could push many of Tesla’s goals.
However, Tesla is expected to still move ahead with the prgroam and it is likely to unveil the new generation of Optimus robots at its shareholders meeting this year.
Electrek’s Take
As I previously stated, I’m actually quite hyped for humanoid robots, but I don’t think they will be nearly as big as Musk claims and I simply don’t see Tesla having a significant advantage over the competition, which is significant.
Companies like Unitree are already selling robots, Figure has made impressive progress and poached from Tesla, then there’s Boston Dynamics and dozens more.
Kovac leaving just as Tesla is supposed to ramp-up production to 50,000 units next and make this a “multi-trillion-dollar” product is a red flag.The engineer would have certainly received sweet stock option packages when he was elevated to SVP and would have likely made a fortune if he would have been able to deliver on Musk’s goals.
But I think the real product at Tesla now is the stock – hence why they reportedly plan to unveil the next generation of the robot at the shareholders meeting and have it do another shady demostration, like it did at the ‘We, Robot’ event where the robots were remotely controlled by humans.
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Honda is stepping up its electric scooter game with the launch of its second electric model for Europe, the CUV e:. Following Honda’s previous debut of the EM1 e:, a compact, city-focused moped, the CUV e: brings more power, more range, and more real-world usability to riders who want a practical electric alternative to a 125cc scooter.
Now finally ready for the spotlight, the CUV e: is built on an underbone-style frame and powered by a 6 kW side-mounted electric motor producing 22 Nm of torque. That puts it squarely in the 125cc-equivalent category, allowing it to reach a top speed of 83 km/h (52 mph).
It’s not built for the highway, but rather for urban and suburban riders who want to achieve speeds seen on the fastest of urban roads and keep up with just about any traffic in the city. For that role, it looks like a solid performer – more than capable of keeping up with city traffic or carrying a second passenger.
One of the most useful features, especially for urban residents and apartment dwellers, is its use of Honda’s Mobile Power Pack e: swappable battery system. The scooter carries two of these Gogoro-style removable battery units, each rated at 50 V and 1.3 kWh. Combined, they offer over 70 km (43 miles) of WMTC-rated range. Compared to the Honda EM1 e:’s single Mobile Power Pack battery, the dual batteries of the CUV e: give Honda the chance to pull twice as much power or offer twice the range.
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Honda’s swappable battery standard is designed for portability and long life, with each pack weighing around 10 kg (22 lb) and rated for 2,500 full charge cycles. Honda has been slowly building a swappable battery ecosystem, and the CUV e: is clearly meant to be part of that larger infrastructure play.
Charging of the batteries is designed to be done easily off-board, either at home or at a battery station (where available). A full charge from 0 to 100% takes about six hours per pack, but Honda says 75% can be reached in just three hours. While fast charging would be nice, the swappable format means riders can keep an extra pair charged and ready if necessary, eliminating downtime altogether.
Honda didn’t skimp on features, either. The CUV e: offers three ride modes (Sport, Standard, and Econ), plus Reverse Assist for easier maneuvering. It includes a fairly spacious flat floorboard, under-seat storage, LED lighting, a USB-C port, and keyless ignition. Buyers can choose between a five-inch color TFT display or an upgraded seven-inch “RoadSync Duo” screen, which supports turn-by-turn navigation, music control, Bluetooth phone integration, and EV-specific ride data.
Positioned as a mid-range electric scooter, the CUV e: fills the space between low-speed mopeds and larger, premium e-motorcycles. It’s a key piece in Honda’s broader electrification strategy, which aims to introduce 10 or more electric motorcycle models globally by 2025 and reach full carbon neutrality in its motorcycle division by the 2040s.
With anticipated pricing starting at around €4,000 (approximately US $4,300), the CUV e: is expected to roll out in Europe first, with other global markets potentially following. Its combination of practical range, moderate speed, high build quality, and swappable batteries could make it an appealing option in cities where electric two-wheelers are on the rise.
If the EM1 e: was Honda dipping a toe into the electric waters, the CUV e: feels like a confident step forward. It’s not flashy, but it’s functional, well-designed, and undeniably useful, which is exactly the kind of machine that could help electric scooters go mainstream.
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