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The Suncor Energy Refinery is seen during extreme cold weather in Edmonton, AB, Canada, on Feb. 3, 2025.

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HOUSTON — The deeply integrated North American oil and gas market stands at crossroads, with Canada’s largest oil producer warning that it will diversify its exports away from the United States if President Donald Trump‘s tariff threats do not end.

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith on Wednesday presented two possible futures for the continent. In one, Canada and the U.S. reach an agreement to create “Fortress North America,” with new pipeline capacity built to support 2 million barrels per day in additional exports to the U.S. market, Smith said at the CERAWeek energy conference.

This will support Trump’s “energy dominance” agenda, Smith said, allowing the U.S. to increase its exports to the global market by backfilling those barrels with imported oil from a neighbor and close ally. It will maintain low consumer prices in the U.S., she said, which is also part of the agenda Trump campaigned on.

Alberta wants to supply the U.S. with the energy it needs to win the race against China to achieve dominance in artificial intelligence, Smith said. “I don’t think any of us want to see a communist, totalitarian regime become a world, global leader in AI,” the premier said.

In the other future, Trump continues to wage his trade war against Canada and Alberta starts looking for oil and gas customers beyond the U.S., Smith said.

Canada is the fourth largest oil producer in the world and Alberta is the country’s biggest producer. Some 97% of the country’s 4 million bpd of oil exports went to the U.S. in 2023 with several European nations and Hong Kong taking the remainder, according to Canada’s energy regulator. Alberta supplied 87% of the oil exported from Canada to the U.S. in 2023.

“There are at least six or seven projects that are emerging in Canada in the event we’re not able to come to a partnership agreement with the U.S.,” Smith said.

The uncertainty caused by Trump’s tariff threats has already forced Alberta to start “looking at more opportunities to get more barrels off our borders besides the United States,” provincial energy minister Brian Jean said Tuesday.

Alberta is in active discussions with South Korea, Japan and European nations about shipping oil exports to those countries, the energy minister said. “The truth is we’re looking in every direction right now except the United States in relation to our priorities,” Jean said.

Canada looks to Europe, Asia

Trump’s tariffs have roiled financial markets and caused confusion among investors over the past week. The president on Wednesday imposed 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from Canada. He has paused until April 2 penalties on Canadian oil and gas as well as duties on other goods that are compliant with the trade agreement that governs North America.

The Trump administration has not provided clarity on how much of Canada’s energy exports to the U.S. conform to the trade agreement. Oil and gas that is not compliant would face a 10% tariff. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright declined to provide details when asked Monday by CNBC.

Smith said Wednesday that Canadian oil producers are busy filling out paperwork to ensure that their exports to the U.S. are compliant.

“There was a bit of a paperwork issue that our companies had,” Smith said. “There was no reason to register, and so now there is. I would imagine that they’ve all called their lawyers and they’re in compliance. I wouldn’t expect very much of our oil and gas is tariffed at all.”

But it is unclear whether Trump will proceed with tariffs when his pause expires on April 2. Wright said Monday a deal with Canada that avoids tariffs on oil, gas and other energy is “certainly is possible” but “it’s too early to say.”

“We can get to no tariffs or very low tariffs but it’s got to be reciprocal,” Wright said in an interview with CNBC’s Brian Sullivan.

Energy Sec. Wright: We can get to no or very low tariffs, but it's got to be reciprocal

It will take time for Alberta to pivot to markets beyond the U.S. if the tariffs do go into effect. Nearly all the pipelines in Canada run south to the U.S. Canada only has one pipeline stretching from Alberta to the country’s West Coast in British Columbia, providing access to Asian markets. There are no pipelines that run from Alberta to the country’s East Coast.

Smith said Canada is looking at three different pipeline proposals to its West Coast, at least one pipeline into the Northwest Territories, one into Manitoba, one to the Hudson Bay, and one into Eastern Canada.

“Those are conversations we were not having three months ago,” Jean said of the pipelines. But it took 12 years for Canada to expand its Trans Mountain Pipeline that connects to the country’s West Coast.

Alberta is not interested in taking a page from Ontario’s playbook, Jean said Tuesday. Premier Doug Ford imposed a 25% surcharge on electricity exported to the U.S. in response to Trump’s tariffs. He later suspended the penalty after the U.S. agreed to resume talks.

 “We don’t believe that that this is the right way to do it,” Jean said of Alberta’s position. “We want to deescalate the situation.”

Canada has presented the U.S. with several options, the Alberta energy minister said. Jean declined to provide specifics, but he said the Trump administration needs a strong strategic petroleum reserve to achieve its goal of energy dominance.

“It also means that they have to be able to continue to get a good steady supply of product from Canada,” he said.

If the tariffs go do into effect, they will hurt both Canadians and Americans, particularly people who cannot afford a price increase, he said. The price hike will be split “fairly evenly” between U.S. customers and producers in Canada, he said.

“It’s going to be felt by all parties and frankly there’s many people right now […] that can’t afford it,” he said. “We need to think about those people because they’re the less fortunate that truly have no other choice but to buy fuel.”

Jean took a swipe at Trump’s repeated calls for Canada to become the 51st state.

“As long as we’re in charge, we don’t mind,” Jean said. “But the truth is the Republicans would never be elected again.”

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Venmo revenue grows 20%, with debit card payment volume soaring

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Venmo revenue grows 20%, with debit card payment volume soaring

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Venmo, long a centerpiece of PayPal‘s growth story but often criticized for its lack of monetization, is becoming a bigger contributor to the business.

PayPal said Tuesday in its first-quarter earnings release that revenue at Venmo increased 20% year-over-year in the first quarter, though the company didn’t provide a dollar figure. PayPal acquired Venmo in 2013 through the acquisition of parent company Braintree.

While it’s long been a popular consumer service for sending money to friends, Venmo’s ability to drive meaningful revenue has been a major question mark for investors, especially as competition from rivals like Zelle and Square Cash has intensified.

Venmo’s total payment volume rose 10% from a year earlier, but revenue grew twice as fast, reflecting the business opportunity. Venmo only gets revenue from specific products like Pay with Venmo at online checkout, Venmo debit cards, and instant transfers, but not from peer-to-peer payments.

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Ahead of the earnings report, Jefferies analysts noted that Venmo revenue growth appeared to be “accelerating sharply” and flagged its rising contribution to branded checkout as a key area to watch. Compass Point analysts similarly said that while competition from Zelle and Square Cash remains fierce, Venmo’s traction with debit cards and online checkout could “open up new monetization avenues” if adoption trends continue.

The company added nearly 2 million first-time PayPal and Venmo debit card users during the quarter, and total debit card payment volume across PayPal and Venmo climbed more than 60%. Meanwhile, Pay with Venmo transaction volume surged 50% year over year, and Venmo debit card monthly active users grew about 40%.

PayPal reported better-than-expected earnings for the quarter but missed on revenue. The company reaffirmed its full-year guidance, citing macroeconomic uncertainty.

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PayPal reports first-quarter earnings beat, maintains forecast

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PayPal reports first-quarter earnings beat, maintains forecast

CEO of PayPal Alex Chriss speaks during the Semafor 2025 World Economy Summit at Conrad Washington on April 24, 2025 in Washington, DC.

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PayPal reported better-than-expected earnings for the first quarter, but the company missed on revenue and reaffirmed its guidance for 2025 due to macro uncertainty. The stock fell about 2% in pre-market trading.

Here’s how the company did compared with Wall Street estimates, based on a survey of analysts by LSEG:

  • Earnings per share: $1.33, adjusted vs. $1.16 expected
  • Revenue: $7.79 billion vs. $7.85 billion expected

While sales increased just 1% from $7.7 billion a year earlier, PayPal said the results reflect a strategy to prioritize profitability over volume, rolling off lower-margin revenue streams.

Transaction margin dollars, the company’s key measure of profitability, grew 7% to $3.7 billion, marking the company’s fifth consecutive quarter of profitable growth under CEO Alex Chriss.

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PayPal shares are down 24% this year, while the Nasdaq has dropped 10%

Total payment volume, an indication of how digital payments are faring in the broader economy, missed estimates, coming in at $417.2 billion, versus the nearly $418 billion analysts projected. The number of active accounts rose 2% from a year earlier to 436 million.

Venmo revenue rose 20% year over year, though the company didn’t provide a dollar figure. Total payment volume for Venmo increased 10% to $75.9 billion. Pay with Venmo transaction volume climbed 50% in the quarter and Venmo debit card monthly active users increased by about 40%.

Chriss has focused on better monetizing key acquisitions like Braintree and Venmo. DoorDash, Starbucks and Ticketmaster are among businesses now accepting Venmo as one way that consumers can pay.

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Ahead of PayPal’s earnings report, some analysts had struck a cautious tone despite the company’s focus on margin expansion. Morgan Stanley analysts warned in a note on Monday that investor sentiment remained bearish due to the potential impact of tariffs, competitive pressure from Apple and Shopify, and the risk of a long-term slowdown in branded checkout growth.

Jefferies analysts highlighted PayPal’s China cross-border exposure as an emerging risk tied to potential new tariffs and changes to the de minimis exemption.

For the second quarter, PayPal issued better-than-expected guidance, forecasting adjusted earnings per share of $1.29 to $1.31, above the average analyst estimate of $1.21. Transaction margin dollars will increase 4% to 5% to between $3.75 billion and $3.8 billion, the company said.

However, for the full year, PayPal chose to reaffirm its guidance, citing “global macroeconomic uncertainty.” The company expects earnings per share of $4.95 to $5.10 for the year and free cash flow in the range of $6 billion to $7 billion.

PayPal shares are down 24% this year, while the Nasdaq has dropped 10%.

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BP profit falls sharply but CEO says oil major ‘off to a great start’ in strategy reset

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BP profit falls sharply but CEO says oil major 'off to a great start' in strategy reset

British oil and gasoline company BP (British Petroleum) signage is being pictured in Warsaw, Poland, on July 29, 2024.

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British oil giant BP on Tuesday posted slightly weaker-than-expected first-quarter net profit, following a recent strategic reset and a slump in crude prices.

The beleaguered oil and gas major posted underlying replacement cost profit, used as a proxy for net profit, of $1.38 billion for the first three months of the year. That missed analyst expectations of $1.6 billion, according to an LSEG-compiled consensus.

BP’s net profit had hit $2.7 billion a year earlier and $1.2 billion in the final three months of 2024.

The results come as the energy major faces fresh pressure from activist investors less than two months after announcing a strategic reset.

Seeking to rebuild investor confidence, BP in February pledged to slash renewable spending and boost annual expenditure on its core business of oil and gas.

BP CEO Murray Auchincloss told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Tuesday that the firm was “off to a great start” in delivering on its strategic reset.

BP CEO Murray Auchincloss discusses first-quarter results

“We had a great operational quarter. We had our highest upstream operating efficiency in history. Our refineries in the first quarter ran at the best they’ve run in 24 years. We had six exploration discoveries in a row, which is really unusual and we started out three major projects,” Auchincloss said.

For the first quarter, BP announced a dividend per ordinary share of 8 cents and a share buyback of $750 million.

Net debt rose to $26.97 billion in the January-March period, up from $22.99 billion at the end of the fourth quarter. BP had previously warned of lower reported upstream production and higher net debt in the first quarter, when compared to the final three months of last year.

Shares of BP fell 3.3% on Tuesday morning. The firm is down roughly 8% year-to-date.

Activist pressure

BP’s green strategy U-turn does not appear to have gone far enough for the likes of activist investor Elliott Management, which went public last week with a stake of more than 5% in the London-listed firm.

The disclosure makes the U.S. hedge fund BP’s second-largest shareholder after BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, according to LSEG data.

Elliott was first reported to have assumed a position in the oil and gas company back in February, driving a share price rally amid expectations that its involvement could pressure BP to shift gears back toward its oil and gas businesses.

BP’s Auchincloss declined to comment on interactions with investors when asked whether the firm was under pressure from the likes of Elliott to go beyond the plans announced in its February pivot.

Notably, BP suffered a shareholder rebellion at its annual general meeting earlier this month. Almost a quarter (24.3%) of investors voted against the re-election of outgoing Chair Helge Lund, a symbolic result that reflected a sense of deep frustration among the firm’s shareholders.

Mark van Baal, founder of Dutch activist investor Follow This, told CNBC last week that he hoped the shareholder revolt means Amanda Blanc, who is leading the process to find Lund’s successor, will look for a new chair who is “climate competent” and “will not respond to short-term activists so quickly.”

Lund is expected to step down from his role next year.

Takeover candidate

BP’s underperformance relative to industry peers such as Exxon Mobil, Chevron and Shell has thrust the energy major into the spotlight as a prime takeover candidate. Energy analysts have questioned, however, whether any of the likeliest suitors will rise to the occasion.

BP’s Auchincloss on Tuesday said that he wouldn’t speculate on whether the company is a takeover target, but confirmed the oil major had not asked for any sort of protection from the British government.

“What I will say is we’re a strong, independent company and we’ve got sector-leading growth. And if we can deliver the sector-leading growth, and the first quarter is a fantastic example of that, then I have no concerns. I think we’re going to do great,” Auchincloss said.

Murray Auchincloss, chief executive officer of BP, during the “CERAWeek by S&P Global” conference in Houston, Texas, on March 11, 2025.

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Oil prices have fallen in recent months on demand fears. International benchmark Brent crude futures with June delivery traded at $65.19 per barrel on Tuesday morning, down more than 1% for the session. That’s lower from around $84 per barrel a year ago.

Asked whether weaker crude prices could put the some of the firm’s reset plans in jeopardy, Auchincloss said, “Not really. We have a balance of products that we think about that generate revenue for us. So, oil, natural gas and refined products as well.”

— CNBC’s Ruxandra Iordache contributed to this report.

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