What are Donald Trump’s tariffs – and how will they affect the UK?
Donald Trump’s steel and aluminium tariffs have come into effect.
But what are they and what do they mean for the UK?
What are tariffs and why does Trump want to impose them?
Tariffs are taxes on goods imported into the US.
The US president wants to impose wide-ranging tariffs on nearest neighbours Mexico and Canada, which he says will help reduce illegal migration and the smuggling of the synthetic opioid fentanyl to the US.
However, most of the 25% duties imposed on the pair to date have been suspended until 2 April.
But two rounds of tariffs on China have been enacted – reflecting trade imbalances and Mr Trump’s battle against fentanyl.
So why is he now targeting steel and aluminium?
On Wednesday, a separate 25% tariff on all steel and aluminium imports to the US came into effect, affecting UK products worth hundreds of millions of pounds.
The steel and aluminium tariffs are designed to protect US manufacturing and bolster jobs by making foreign-made products less attractive.
The world’s largest economy relies on imports of steel and aluminium and Mr Trump wants to change that.
How have countries – including the UK – reacted?
The European Union has announced it will impose retaliatory tariffs on the US.
The European Commission said it will impose “countermeasures” affecting €26bn (£21.9bn) of US goods from 1 April after US tariffs on steel and aluminium came into force today.
The bloc’s tariffs will not only impact US steel and aluminium products, but also textiles, home appliances and agricultural goods.
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Canada has announced 25% retaliatory tariffs on US goods worth C$29.8bn (£16bn) from tomorrow, its country’s finance minister has said.
The tariffs will include steel products worth C$12.6bn (£6.8bn) and aluminium products worth C$3bn (£1.6bn).
Computers, sports equipment and cast iron goods are also among the other products subject to the new retaliatory tariffs.
Announcing the tariffs, Canada’s foreign minister, Melanie Joly, added that Canada will raise the issues of tariffs with European allies to coordinate a response to put pressure on the US.
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Trump’s tariffs are ‘disappointing’
While UK industry sees it as a direct attack, the reality is that this country is not a major player any more because energy costs, in particular, mean that UK-produced steel is expensive.
Nevertheless, stainless steel and some high-end products from the UK are in high demand and account for the bulk of the £350m in annual exports to the US.
Sir Keir Starmer has said he is “disappointed” to see Mr Trump impose global tariffs on steel and aluminium, saying the UK will take a “pragmatic approach” and “all options are on the table”.
The business secretary Jonathan Reynolds said on Wednesday morning that while he was disappointed, there would be no immediate retaliation by the UK government as negotiations continue over a wider trade deal with the US.
Why will metal products become more expensive?
It stands to reason that if you slap additional costs on importers in the US, that cost will be passed on down the supply chain to the end user.
If the aluminium to make soft drinks cans costs 25% more, for example, then the hit will have to be felt somewhere.
It could mean that any US product involving steel or aluminium goes up in price, but hikes could be limited if companies decide to take some of the burden in their bottom lines.
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What are the prospects for higher prices?
It depends on the extent to which costs are passed down through the supply chain as new tariff regimes and any reciprocal tariffs are deployed.
We do know that Mr Trump plans to fully roll out duties, on all goods, against Mexico and Canada from 2 April. But the White House did row back on a threat to double Canada’s tariff on its steel and aluminium – the biggest exporter – to 50%.
But Mr Trump is also widely expected to target almost all imports from the European Union from the beginning of April.
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Is the UK facing further tariffs?
Mr Trump has not explicitly said that the UK is in his sights.
Data shows no great trade imbalances – the gap between what you import and export from a certain country – and UK figures show no trade deficit with the United States.
UK ministers have previously suggested this could be good news for avoiding new levies.
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‘The ultimate cost of tariffs will be paid in the US’
Why tariffs could cost you – even if Trump spares UK
Even if no tariffs are put on all UK exports to the US, consumers globally will still be impacted by the wider trade war, particularly in the US.
Economists believe that tariffs will raise costs in the US, sparking a wave of inflation that will keep interest rates higher for longer. The US central bank, the Federal Reserve, is mandated to act to bring inflation down.
More expensive borrowing and costlier goods and services could bring about an economic downturn in the US and have knock-on effects in the UK.
Forecasts from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) predict lower UK economic growth due to higher global interest rates.
It has estimated that UK GDP (a measure of everything produced in the economy) could be between 2.5% and 3% lower over five years and 0.7% lower this year.
The Centre for Inclusive Trade Policy thinktank said a 20% across-the-board tariff, impacting the UK, could lead to a £22bn reduction in the UK’s US exports, with the hardest-hit sectors including fishing and mining.
NHS England has warned the health service is facing a “worst case scenario” December with a surge of “super flu”.
The warning comes as new figures revealed the number of people in hospital with flu have increased by more than half in just one week.
Catch up as it happened: NHS warns of ‘worst-case scenario’ as ‘super flu’ surges
Latest figures show:
• An average of 2,660 patients were in hospital per day with flu last week
• This is the highest ever for this time of year and up 55% on last week
• At this point last year the number stood at 1,861 patients, while in 2023 it was just 402
Health service bosses are warning the number of flu patients in hospital has already increased sharply since the week covered by this data – with no peak in sight.
Read more: Why is flu season worse this year?
Virus outbreaks coincide with doctors’ strikes
Weekly flu numbers in England peaked at 5,408 patients last winter and reached 5,441 over the winter of 2022/23, the highest level since the pandemic.
Alongside rocketing flu, the number of norovirus patients in hospital has also risen by 35%.
The NHS is now warning winter viruses are starting to “engulf hospitals”.
Demand for A&Es and ambulance services is also soaring.
New monthly figures show A&E attendances were a record for November at 2.35 million – more than 30,000 higher than November 2024.
In addition, there were 48,814 more ambulance incidents (802,525) compared with last year (753,711).
Some hospitals across the country have asked staff, patients and visitors to wear face masks to cut the spread of flu, while others have gone in and out of critical incident status due to the high number of people attending A&E.
The record-breaking demand on the NHS coincides with a resident doctors’ strike from 17 to 22 December over pay and jobs – sparking fears of major disruption for patients in the run up to Christmas.
People are being advised to attend any planned appointments scheduled during the strikes unless they have been contacted to reschedule.
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Flu vaccinations on the up… who can get one?
The NHS is urging anyone eligible to get their flu vaccination to help prevent them getting seriously ill.
Latest figures show more than 17.4 million people have been vaccinated so far this year, more than 381,000 higher than last year.
You can get it if you:
• Are 65 or over in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland
• Are pregnant
• Live in a care home
• Are the main carer for an older or disabled person, or receive carer’s allowance
• Live with someone who has a weakened immune system
• Are a frontline health and social care worker
• Are of school age
• Have certain medical conditions (the NHS has a full list)
Wes Streeting, the health secretary, warned of a “tidal wave of flu tearing through our hospitals”.
“We are working with the NHS to make sure it is able to cope with this as best as possible,” he said.
Warning ‘extremely challenging few weeks ahead’
Professor Meghana Pandit, NHS national medical director, warned the health service faces “an extremely challenging few weeks ahead” with “staff being pushed to the limit”.
She said: “With record demand for A&E and ambulances and an impending resident doctors’ strike, this unprecedented wave of super flu is leaving the NHS facing a worst-case scenario for this time of year – with staff being pushed to the limit to keep providing the best possible care for patients.
“The numbers of patients in hospital with flu is extremely high for this time of year. Even worse, it continues to rise and the peak is not in sight yet, so the NHS faces an extremely challenging few weeks ahead.”
She added: “We have prepared earlier for winter than ever before, and stress-tested services to ensure people have a range of ways to get the help they need and avoid needing to go to A&E.
“For non-life-threatening care, people should call NHS 111 or use 111 online, which can direct you to the most appropriate place, and use A&E and 999 for life threatening conditions and serious injuries.”
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Mr Streeting has offered the British Medical Association (BMA) a last-minute deal in the hope doctors will call off the walkout, which starts next Wednesday.
The doctors’ union has agreed to put the offer to members over the coming day, and is expected to announced a decision on Monday, just two days before the planned strike.
The offer includes a fast expansion of specialist training posts as well as covering out-of-pocket expenses such as exam fees, but does not include extra pay.
The spread of subclade K, the super flu, is picking up – and it’s not looking good for the NHS.
An average of just under 2,700 hospital beds a day in England were occupied by patients with flu last week.
There are fears that could jump to somewhere between 5,000 and 8,000 by the end of this week.
That’s on top of COVID and RSV.
And with the possibility of a five-day strike by resident (junior) doctors next week, it’s a perfect storm for hospitals.
An NHS hospital ward at Ealing Hospital in London. Pic: PA
Christmas flu
Children are the super-spreaders of flu. It races around classrooms and some schools have temporarily shut because of the impact.
The Christmas holidays aren’t far off. They are likely to put the brakes on children passing around the virus.
But it’s also a time of year when families mix with elderly relatives, who are more likely to be hit hard by the infection – perhaps even needing hospital care.
So while the holidays may temporarily slow the overall rise in infections, the impact on hospitals could get much worse.
File pic: PA
Subclade K
Flu is spreading so rapidly at the moment because immunity to subclade K from previous infections and vaccinations is low.
The virus – a variant of the H3N2 flu strain – suddenly acquired seven new mutations in late summer.
Every 100 people infected with seasonal flu would typically pass the virus on to 120 others.
With subclade K, it’s 140.
And that’s why cases are rising so quickly on the charts.
At the moment, 18 in every 100,000 patients in England are consulting their GP with flu-like symptoms. That’s still well short of the peak of around 50 in every 100,000 in 2017/18, the worst flu outbreak in recent years.
File pic: PA
The grim reality of flu
Flu is a really unpleasant disease, nothing like a cold. I’ve had it twice in my life and it physically hurt to get out of bed. It’s grim.
Most people get over it with a few days’ rest and paracetamol to take the edge off the fever.
But vulnerable people can become seriously ill. In the outbreak of 2017/18, around 22,000 died.
Read more:
Nurses ‘deeply concerned about what lies ahead’
NHS braced for ‘toughest winter’ after record-breaking month
That’s why the NHS is urging people in certain groups – the over 65s, those with underlying health conditions, pregnant women, carers and children – to get the jab.
The vaccine isn’t a great match for subclade K, but still reduces the chance of hospital admission by 30-40% in adults.
It’s impossible to say when the spread will peak, but the latest figures suggest the outbreak is far from over.
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