‘We need to get a grip’ on welfare, chancellor says – as controversial cuts widely expected
The chancellor has insisted that “we do need to get a grip” on the welfare budget, saying the “current system is not working for anyone”.
Rachel Reeves said the “bill for welfare is going up by billions of pounds in the next few years”, and argued the system should “get people into work so that more people can fulfil their potential”.
Her comments come ahead of an expected announcement next week of “radical” reforms to the welfare system, with many fearing drastic cuts to support for the most vulnerable.
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Asked by broadcasters on Friday about those fears, the chancellor said: “Well, we’ll set out our plans for welfare reform. But it is absolutely clear that the current system is not working for anyone.
“It is not working for people who need support, it’s not working to get people into work so that more people can fulfil their potential, and it’s not working for the taxpayer when the bill for welfare is going up by billions of pounds in the next few years.
“So we do need to get a grip. We need to spend more on national defence, we need to reform our public services, and we need to reform our broken welfare system.”
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Welfare system ‘letting people down’
Ms Reeves’s comments come after the work and pensions secretary said the current system has locked “millions” out of work and called it “dysfunctional” as the system places a person in binary categories of either “fit for work” or “not fit for work”.
The government has promised to either reform or replace the Work Capability Assessment – which determines if a person is fit for work or not – as they say it currently drives people who want to work “to a life on benefits”.
Ministers have been priming MPs and the public for cuts to a ballooning welfare bill since the start of the year, with details expected next week ahead of an announcement in the chancellor’s spring statement on 26 March.
Rachel Reeves during a visit Babcock in Rosyth. Pic: PA
The expected welfare cuts
Ms Reeves is expected to announce several billion pounds of spending cuts after losing her £9.9bn headroom since the October budget, with the welfare budget a key target for cuts.
Fiscal headroom is the amount by which government can increase spending or cut taxes without breaking its own fiscal rules.
The welfare cuts are expected to include £5bn in savings by making it harder to qualify for Personal Independent Payments (PIP), which help people with the additional costs of their disability.
PIP payments next year are also expected to be frozen and the basic rate for Universal Credit paid to those searching for work, or in work, is expected to be increased while the rate for those judged as unfit for work will be cut.
The department for work and pensions said new figures show 1.8 million people are now considered too sick to look for work due to a “broken work capability assessment” so are on Universal Credit but getting no support to find work.
It said the number has almost quadrupled since the start of the pandemic when 360,000 were considered too sick to look for work.
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‘Government’s plan to cut welfare is terrifying’
Labour MPs concerned about cuts
A growing number of Labour MPs are publicly raising concerns and, in an unusual move, all 404 Labour MPs were asked to attend “welfare roundtables” in Downing Street with the Number 10 policy unit on Wednesday and Thursday.
On Wednesday, Sir Keir Starmer faced down Labour MPs unhappy over the rumoured welfare cuts – especially for disabled people.
Richard Burgon pleaded with him to make the “moral” choice, telling the Commons disabled people are “frightened” as he urged the PM to introduce a wealth tax instead of “making the poor and vulnerable pay”.
Sir Keir pledged to “protect those who need protecting”, but later added there is no “bottomless pit”.
He said the Tories “left a broken welfare system, which locks millions out of work, that is indefensible in my view, economically and morally”.
Sir Keir Starmer was asked about the welfare cuts at PMQs
Another Labour MP, John Slinger, urged the PM to reassure the Commons he will “provide compassion to those who can’t work”.
Labour MP Nadia Whittome told the BBC the government should impose a wealth tax instead of “placing that burden on disabled people who have already borne the brunt of 14 years of austerity”.
She added that she “can’t look her mum in the eye and support this”.
Rachel Reeves has told Sky News she is looking at both tax rises and spending cuts in the budget, in her first interview since being briefed on the scale of the fiscal black hole she faces.
“Of course, we’re looking at tax and spending as well,” the chancellor said when asked how she would deal with the country’s economic challenges in her 26 November statement.
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Ms Reeves was shown the first draft of the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) report, revealing the size of the black hole she must fill next month, on Friday 3 October.
She has never previously publicly confirmed tax rises are on the cards in the budget, going out of her way to avoid mentioning tax in interviews two weeks ago.
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Chancellor pledges not to raise VAT
Cabinet ministers had previously indicated they did not expect future spending cuts would be used to ensure the chancellor met her fiscal rules.
Ms Reeves also responded to questions about whether the economy was in a “doom loop” of annual tax rises to fill annual black holes. She appeared to concede she is trapped in such a loop.
Asked if she could promise she won’t allow the economy to get stuck in a doom loop cycle, Ms Reeves replied: “Nobody wants that cycle to end more than I do.”
She said that is why she is trying to grow the economy, and only when pushed a third time did she suggest she “would not use those (doom loop) words” because the UK had the strongest growing economy in the G7 in the first half of this year.
What’s facing Reeves?
Ms Reeves is expected to have to find up to £30bn at the budget to balance the books, after a U-turn on winter fuel and welfare reforms and a big productivity downgrade by the OBR, which means Britain is expected to earn less in future than previously predicted.
Yesterday, the IMF upgraded UK growth projections by 0.1 percentage points to 1.3% of GDP this year – but also trimmed its forecast by 0.1% next year, also putting it at 1.3%.
The UK growth prospects are 0.4 percentage points worse off than the IMF’s projects last autumn. The 1.3% GDP growth would be the second-fastest in the G7, behind the US.
Last night, the chancellor arrived in Washington for the annual IMF and World Bank conference.
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‘I won’t duck challenges’
In her Sky News interview, Ms Reeves said multiple challenges meant there was a fresh need to balance the books.
“I was really clear during the general election campaign – and we discussed this many times – that I would always make sure the numbers add up,” she said.
“Challenges are being thrown our way – whether that is the geopolitical uncertainties, the conflicts around the world, the increased tariffs and barriers to trade. And now this (OBR) review is looking at how productive our economy has been in the past and then projecting that forward.”
She was clear that relaxing the fiscal rules (the main one being that from 2029-30, the government’s day-to-day spending needs to rely on taxation alone, not borrowing) was not an option, making tax rises all but inevitable.
“I won’t duck those challenges,” she said.
“Of course, we’re looking at tax and spending as well, but the numbers will always add up with me as chancellor because we saw just three years ago what happens when a government, where the Conservatives, lost control of the public finances: inflation and interest rates went through the roof.”
Pic: PA
Blame it on the B word?
Ms Reeves also lay responsibility for the scale of the black hole she’s facing at Brexit, along with austerity and the mini-budget.
This could risk a confrontation with the party’s own voters – one in five (19%) Leave voters backed Labour at the last election, playing a big role in assuring the party’s landslide victory.
The chancellor said: “Austerity, Brexit, and the ongoing impact of Liz Truss’s mini-budget, all of those things have weighed heavily on the UK economy.
“Already, people thought that the UK economy would be 4% smaller because of Brexit.
“Now, of course, we are undoing some of that damage by the deal that we did with the EU earlier this year on food and farming, goods moving between us and the continent, on energy and electricity trading, on an ambitious youth mobility scheme, but there is no doubting that the impact of Brexit is severe and long-lasting.”
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