Bitcoin needs weekly close above $81K to avoid downside ahead of FOMC
Bitcoin needs to close above the key $81,000 weekly level to avoid more downside volatility ahead of next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which will offer investors more cues on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy for 2025.
Bitcoin (BTC) price fell over 3% during the past week, to trade above $83,748 as of 9:33 a.m. in UTC, Cointelegraph Markets Pro data shows.
Bitcoin price continues to risk significant downside volatility due to growing macroeconomic uncertainty around global trade tariffs, according to Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research.
BTC/USD, 1-year chart. Source: Cointelegraph
Closing the week above $81,000 will be key to avoid more Bitcoin downside, the analyst told Cointelegraph, adding:
“The key level to watch for the weekly close is $81,000 range, holding above that would signal resilience, but if we see a drop below $76,000, it could invite more short-term selling pressure.”
The analyst’s comments come days ahead of the next FOMC meeting scheduled for March 19. Markets are currently pricing in a 98% chance that the Fed will keep interest rates steady, according to the latest estimates of the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.
Source: CME Group’s FedWatch tool
The outcome of the meeting may significantly impact Bitcoin investor sentiment, said Lee, adding:
“The market largely expects the Fed to hold rates steady, but any unexpected hawkish signals could put pressure on Bitcoin and other risk assets.”
“Even a dovish surprise, like a rate cut, might not be the immediate boost some are hoping for, as investors are still weighing macro uncertainties,” added the analyst.
Related: US Rep. Byron Donalds to introduce bill codifying Trump’s Bitcoin reserve
Bitcoin close above $85k may reignite investor optimism for more upside: analyst
Other analysts are seeing a silver lining in Bitcoin’s stagnant price action.
A weekly close above $85,000 may inspire more investor confidence and lead to the next breakout, according to Enmanuel Cardozo, market analyst at Brickken real-world asset tokenization platform.
The market analyst told Cointelegraph:
“Traders and investors alike are keeping a close eye on the $80,000 support and the $85,000–$90,000 resistance, with a break above the latter potentially sparking a strong upward movement.”
While Bitcoin’s short-term momentum may be limited by the upcoming economic releases, the regulatory developments around Trump’s Bitcoin reserve plan may gradually bring more market optimism and mass adoption, added the analyst.
Related: Bitcoin’s next catalyst: End of $36T US debt ceiling suspension
Trump’s Bitcoin reserve came one step closer to fruition on March 14, after US Representative Byron Donalds introduced a bill that seeks to ensure the Bitcoin reserve becomes a permanent fixture, preventing future administrations from dismantling it through executive action.
If the bill is passed, it would ensure that the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and the US Digital Asset Stockpile could not be eliminated via executive actions by a future administration.
The bill will require at least 60 votes in the Senate and a House majority to pass. With Republicans holding a Senate majority — and amid a generally more crypto-friendly environment — the bill has a chance of passing.
Magazine: SCB tips $500K BTC, SEC delays Ether ETF options, and more: Hodler’s Digest, Feb. 23 – March 1
Reform’s plan was meant to be detailed. Instead, there’s more confusion.
The party had grown weary of the longstanding criticism that their tough talk on immigration did not come with a full proposal for what they would do to tackle small boats if they came to power.
So, after six months of planning, yesterday they attempted to put flesh on to the bones of their flagship policy.
Politics latest: Farage rows back on pledge to deport illegal migrant women and girls
At an expensive press conference in a vast airhanger in Oxford, the headline news was clear: Reform UK would deport anyone who comes here by small boat, arresting, detaining and then deporting up to 600,000 people in the first five years of governing.
They would leave international treaties and repeal the Human Rights Act to do it
But, one day later, that policy is clear as mud when it comes to who this would apply to.
Nigel Farage launched an airport-style departures board to illustrate how many illegal migrants have arrived in the UK. Pic: PA
I asked Farage at the time of the announcement whether this would apply to women and girls – an important question – as the basis for their extreme policy seemed to hinge on the safety of women and girls in the UK.
He was unequivocal: “Yes, women and children, everybody on arrival will be detained.
“And I’ve accepted already that how we deal with children is a much more complicated and difficult issue.”
But a day later, he appeared to row back on this stance at a press conference in Scotland, saying Reform is “not even discussing women and children at this stage”.
Read more:
Farage has a new ‘leave’ campaign – here’s how it could work
He later clarified that if a single woman came by boat, then they could fall under the policy, but if “a woman comes with children, we will work out the best thing to do”.
A third clarification in the space of 24 hours on a flagship policy they worked on over six months seems like a pretty big gaffe, and it only feeds into the Labour criticism that these plans aren’t yet credible.
If they had hoped to pivot from rhetoric to rigour, this announcement showed serious pitfalls.
But party strategists probably will not be tearing out too much hair over this, with polling showing Reform UK still as the most trusted party on the issue of immigration overall.
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