This week government figures are likely to show the prison population back to where it was before the last early release scheme.
But even though hundreds of prisoners have served only 40% of their sentences, there is a cohort of the prison population who have served extended sentences, years beyond their minimum term.
IPP sentences (imprisonment for public protection) were introduced in 2005 and abolished in 2012. But the law wasn’t backdated, so the legacy of prisoners serving indefinite sentences continues.
Image: Andy Logan, 45, from Kent, has had two IPPs
“It’s broken me as a man,” says Andy Logan. The burly 45-year-old from Kent has spent most of the last 20 years in jail on an IPP sentence, now he won’t leave home without his mother.
“I don’t go out, I’ve got no social circle,” he says. “I’m not in no family photographs, it’s like Back To The Future when he gets erased from the photos, I’m not there. I’m a ghost – I’ve been a ghost for 20 years.”
He was given IPP sentences twice, for two cashpoint robberies where he showed his victims a knife but didn’t use it. The minimum terms for each crime were two-and-a-half years and three years, but each time he spent far longer behind bars, the first time four years, then seven years. But that wasn’t the end of it.
After his release, Andy’s IPP hung over him. He could be recalled for any misdemeanour, including drinking too much alcohol, taking drugs, or missing probation appointments.
Over the next eight years he was recalled six times and would spend months behind bars waiting for a decision. His recall prison time alone has amounted to nearly four years. Twice the recalls were later deemed “unjustified”.
Image: Andy is so fearful of recall, he doesn’t go out without his mother
“I started my sentence with people who murdered people – and some of them got out before me,” says Andy.
“I lost all hope. I thought I’d never get out. I took drugs for four years. I exploded in weight. Self-harm started happening and I’d never self-harmed in my life.”
Andy lifts up his sleeve to reveal a red scar. “That one, I nearly did the artery on my last recall. I was just so frustrated I wanted to die.”
His lawyer Catherine Bond says he was often recalled for minor breaches.
She said: “One was in 2020 – Andy does struggle with alcohol addiction. He had started drinking more at that point.
“He kept his probation officer informed, but his probation officer recalled him anyway, and the parole board found the recall was unjustified because although there was alcohol use, that doesn’t necessarily equate to any increased risk.”
Image: Andy’s mother holds a picture of him as a child
Each IPP recall is ‘re-traumatising’
Ms Bond says the recalls have damaged Andy’s mental health.
“Each time you go back in there you don’t know when you are going to get back out so the whole process is re-traumatising, and I think it can make it more difficult for people to resettle when they get back out so each recall can increase the risk of further recalls,” she said.
But she also has IPP clients who’ve never been released – one jailed in 2005.
“It was a robbery – threat of violence. I’m not minimising that in any way but 20 years on it’s totally disproportionate and these are people’s lives,” she said.
“Of course, they’ve done something wrong but effectively it is the misfortune of having committed an offence at a particular time… meant they are in prison for this excessive amount of time.”
The number of unreleased prisoners on IPP has fallen from 5,000 in 2015 to 1,180 in early 2024. Around 700 of those have served 10 years longer than their minimum term.
Image: Source: His Majesty’s Prison and Probation Service
The number recalled is rising with over 1,600 currently back in jail, mostly for licence breaches. The average time spent imprisoned on recall has risen dramatically from 11 months to around 26 months.
Andy is so fearful of recall, he doesn’t go out without his mother Betty. As Betty drives him to meet his probation officer, he says: “What if someone takes a dislike to me and says ‘who are you looking at?’ and makes an allegation against me – I’m in prison. So, I’m just terrified.”
Image: Andy’s mother Betty
But Andy hopes this could be one of his last visits to probation. Until recently, any IPP prisoner would have to wait at least 10 years after their release from prison before their licence could even be considered for removal by a parole board – but in February this year that time period was reduced to three years. For Andy that means in the next few months he could finally get off it.
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3:24
February: Prison recall population at record level
A Ministry of Justice (MoJ) spokesperson said: “It is right that IPP sentences were abolished. With public protection as the number one priority, the lord chancellor is working with organisations and campaign groups to ensure appropriate action is taken to support those still serving these sentences, such as improved access to mental health support and rehabilitation programmes.
“An independent report from His Majesty’s Inspectorate of Prisons found the majority of recall decisions were necessary to keep our streets safe. However, to avoid waiting unnecessarily for parole board hearings, eligible IPP prisoners can now be considered for release earlier after a thorough risk assessment.”
The prison population is bursting and is set to run out of space within a year according to internal forecasts from the MoJ. But some of those taking up space – probably shouldn’t still be there.
Those with “milder mental health” issues and “lower-level physical conditions” could see their disability benefits cut, as the government looks to shave £6bn off the welfare bill.
Her welfare reform green paper will arrive after Downing Street insisted there is a “moral and an economic case for fixing our broken system”.
Government figures argue the rising sickness and disability bill, which has ballooned since the pandemic, is unsustainable and will “leave the welfare state losing legitimacy” in the eyes of the wider public if not dealt with.
The cuts come as the chancellor eyes a hole in the public finances on the back of lower than expected growth and rising borrowing costs, with the £9.9bn headroom she had at the budget in October now wiped out.
Rachel Reeves’ self-imposed fiscal rules mean day-to-day government spending must be covered by tax revenue by 2029-30, which leaves her needing billions of pounds in spending cuts (after ruling out further tax rises, her other option).
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0:23
Welfare reforms will ensure ‘trust in system’
What changes should we expect?
Ms Kendall is expected to target personal independence payments (PIP) – one of the main forms of disability benefits for those with long-term illnesses or disabilities – amid a spike in claimants.
The PIP bill has grown from £13.7bn a year before the pandemic to £21.8bn in the current financial year, and is set to increase to £34.1bn by the end of the decade.
The number of people claiming this disability benefit is projected to more than double from two million to 4.3 million.
These payments are now expected to rise in line with inflation, but the eligibility criteria will be tightened to whittle back the number of people eligible to claim.
One government figure told me it would result in some conditions, such as “milder mental health” or “lower-level physical conditions”, being ineligible for PIP.
But they stressed that those with more severe conditions and who are never going to be able to work would be protected and cared for.
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1:44
Why is there a surge in youth unemployment?
The key principles driving reforms
The changes are likely to draw criticism from some MPs, though one senior Labour source said they didn’t think there would be any ministerial resignations over the benefit announcements.
Another Labour figure told me they would be “massively shocked” if there were resignations.
However, a number of Labour MPs have voiced their concerns, as has the Manchester mayor Andy Burnham.
In a bid to assuage MPs, the work and pensions secretary is also expected to earmark £1bn of savings into employment support programmes as she frames the reforms around three clear principles.
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The first will be to prevent people from falling into long-term economic inactivity with a better support offer to get people back into work quickly.
The second will be to change the incentive systems to move people away from welfare dependency.
This could see Ms Kendall slash the highest level of incapacity benefit for working age people who have an illness or disability that limits their ability to work, while increasing the basic rate of support for those out of work (universal credit).
This is because the lower level of unemployment benefit has led to more people claiming for additional incapacity and disability benefits, while disincentivising them to try to find work.
The government will also announce a “right to try” scheme, allowing those on incapacity benefits to try returning to work without the risk of losing their benefits, as happens in the current system.
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1:13
Will there be a backlash over benefits?
‘I don’t think they go far enough’
But with one in 10 working age people claiming sickness benefits, and one in eight young people not in education, employment or training, the reforms on Tuesday could be just the start of bigger changes – and potentially bigger political battles.
The cost of long-term sickness and disability benefits for working-age people has risen by about £20bn since the pandemic to about £48bn, and is forecast to hit almost £100bn by 2030.
“People are trapped on benefits and the bill is getting out of hand,” said one government figure.
“We are currently spending more than three times the annual policing bill on these benefits. It’s getting out of hand.
“I don’t think the reforms go far enough, and I don’t think people have clocked the size of the numbers going on here.”
Detectives searching for a Cardiff woman who has been missing since last summer have launched a murder investigation.
Three arrests have previously been made in connection with the disappearance of Charlene Hobbs.
Image: Pic: South Wales Police
Crimestoppers is now offering a reward of up to £20,000 for information that leads to the arrest and conviction of those responsible.
The last confirmed sighting of the 36-year-old, from Riverside, was a photograph taken on a mobile phone at a house in Broadway in the Adamsdown area of the city on 24 July last year.
Ms Hobbs, who has a distinctive dragon tattoo on her back, had her hair in a bun and was wearing a dark strapless top when the photo was taken.
The day before she was last seen, she was captured on CCTV at a Morrisons Local in Adamsdown.
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0:49
CCTV released in the search for Ms Hobbs
In a statement released through South Wales Police, Ms Hobbs’ family said: “We still hope that Charlene can be found safe and well.
“We are grateful for the support of Crimestoppers and the reward to help us find her, and hope that this will help people to come forward with information about what has happened to Charlene.”
Image: Ms Hobbs at a property in Broadway, Adamsdown, left, and at a Morrisons Local in the area, right. Pics: South Wales Police
Detective Chief Inspector Matt Powell said: “We have always been determined to find Charlene alive and return her to her family, but despite a huge number of enquiries we have no proof that Charlene is alive.
“While I have always maintained an open mind, the lack of evidence that Charlene is alive means that we are now treating her disappearance as a murder investigation.
“We have spoken to more than 250 people, either known to Charlene or from areas where she is known to frequent, and no one can tell us where Charlene is or that she is alive, which of course we, her family and friends desperately want to hear.
“Several of those we have spoken to believe that she has died but no one has been able to provide any specific details.”
Image: Extensive searches have taken place for the missing 36-year-old. Pic: South Wales Police
Image: Pic: South Wales Police
Detectives and specialist search teams are continuing with extensive efforts to find Ms Hobbs and determine the circumstances around her disappearance.
DCI Powell added: “I still firmly believe that answers lie in the community, and that someone out there holds key information that will help us find Charlene.”
A 45-year-old man arrested in connection with the investigation remains on police bail.
A 43-year-old man and a 38-year-old woman have been released without charge.
In Thailand, Richard Burrows found an escape – a place to hide for nearly 30 years.
After abusing children, he fled the UK to avoid prosecution. But the severity of his crimes didn’t push him to live a low-profile life – far from it.
In the sandy shores of Phuket, he became very well known and liked. Everyone there knew him as Peter Smith, an identity he stole from a passport that wasn’t his.
No one appeared to know where he had gone after he failed to attend the start of his trial over alleged child sex offences at Chester Crown Court in 1997.
His abuse spanned a wide period from the 1960s to the 1990s. Some of the offences occurred at a children’s school in Cheshire and others happened in the Midlands, through his involvement with the scouts.
But it would take 27 years for him to be caught, finally arrested at Heathrow Airport.
Image: Richard Burrows was put on trial after years in Thailand
He had settled in Thailand with a familiar routine and a wide circle of acquaintances. He would regularly dine at a small roadside restaurant, often ordering fish and chips.
The owner Pakorn Sanwongwan says the man they knew was kind and generous. They had no idea of his past.
“I’m very shocked because from my perspective, he was a good person. For the past 24 years he had recommended our restaurant to lots of people and brought us new customers,” he said.
His wife Supaporn says they were shocked when just a few months ago he announced he was “going to the UK and never coming back”.
It’s easy to see how many people were duped. He kept the reality of what he’d done largely hidden. And his was not a life lived under the radar.
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1:36
Victim speaks out over sex attacker
He was involved in the local sailing community. His friends say he’d worked with local schools. And he’d worked in local media.
Burrows lived in a container, a short drive from the coastline. But things started to unravel when money ran thin.
He began opening up to a very small number of close friends, saying he needed to return to the UK to see family and was struggling financially.
“Ben”, not his real name, was among those close confidantes.
He said: “I knew him for 25 years. Only about three to four years ago, he started sort of revealing a few things that he’s not actually who his passport says he is and that he was searched by the UK authorities for some allegations, apparently, he’s done.”
Ben says he had no idea of the severity of the charges against him. The man he thought he knew was a kind soul, giving and supportive of many he met.
There were, he says, signs of his attraction to young people, but it didn’t raise alarm bells.
“Peter” had younger companions who cooked for him at home and he would finance the education of some of them, Ben told us.
“Obviously it was visible that he liked the younger generation. But that he would go for minors I would never have thought,” he said.
Image: The container where Burrows lived in Thailand
All of the offences were committed during Burrows’ time in the United Kingdom, and no charges have been brought against him in Thailand.
If Ben knew the details of Burrows’ sordid past, he may have thought differently. But Burrows was living a lie, enjoying a secret life in the sun.
Remarkably, Burrows went undetected for decades – his visa based on a fake passport, consistently renewed.
It’s unclear what exactly motivated his attempt to move back to the UK, a move that would end in his arrest at Heathrow.
Some we spoke to said he had run out of money and that he wanted to see family. But some suspected he was trying to make peace with his past.
Finally, he has been brought to justice. But his victims were left to deal with the horrific aftermath of his abuse.
Whilst he is now behind bars, they will also have to wrestle with the fact their abuser was able to enjoy a free and full life for so long.