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Since taking office nine months ago Sir Keir Starmer has weathered party rows about winter fuel payments, the two child benefit cap, WASPI women, airport expansion and cuts to international aid.

All of these decisions have been justified in the name of balancing the books – filling that notorious £22bn black hole, sticking to the fiscal rules, and in the pursuit of growth as the government’s number one priority.

But welfare reform feels like a far more existential row.

Health Secretary Wes Streeting argued on Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips that the current system is “unsustainable”.

Ministers have been making the point for weeks that the health benefits bill for working-age people has ballooned by £20bn since the pandemic and is set to grow by another £18bn over the next five years, to £70bn.

But the detail of where those cuts could fall is proving highly divisive.

One proposal reportedly under consideration has been to freeze personal independence payments (PIPs) next year, rather than uprating them in line with inflation.

Charities have warned this would be a catastrophic real-terms cut to 3.6 million people.

Concerned left-wing backbenchers are calling on the government to tax the rich, not take from the most vulnerable.

The Sunday Times and Observer have now reported that Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall has dropped the idea in response to the backlash.

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Streeting defends PM’s comments on ‘flabby’ public sector

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Streeting denies Labour ‘changing into Tories’
Planned PIP freeze set to be scrapped – reports
What cuts could be announced?

Wes Streeting denied reports of a cabinet row over the plan, insisting the final package of measures hasn’t yet been published and he and his cabinet colleagues haven’t seen it.

Not the final version perhaps – but given all backbench Labour MPs who were summoned to meetings with the Number 10 policy teams for briefings this week, that response is perhaps more than a little disingenuous.

In his interview with Sir Trevor Phillips, he went on to make the broader case for PIP reform – highlighting the thousand people who sign up to the benefit every day and arguing that the system needs to be “sustainable”, to “deliver for those that need it most” and “provide the right kind of support for the different types of need that exist”.

To me this signals the government are preparing to unveil a tighter set of PIP eligibility criteria, with a refocus on supporting those with the greatest needs.

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Liz Bates: Will there be a backlash over benefits?

Changes to incapacity benefit to better incentivise working – for those who can – are also clearly on the cards.

The health secretary has been hitting out at the “overdiagnosis” of mental health conditions, arguing that “going out to work is better for your mental and physical health, than being spent and being stuck at home”, and promising benefit reforms that will help support people back to work rather than “trapped in the benefits system”.

Turning Tory?

Starmer said this week the current welfare system couldn’t be defended on economic or moral grounds.

The Conservatives don’t disagree.

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Conservatives: Scrapping NHS England is ‘right thing’

Before the election, they proposed £12bn in cuts to the welfare bill, with a focus on getting people on long-term sickness back to work.

This morning, shadow education secretary Laura Trott claimed Labour denied that welfare cuts were needed during the election campaign and had wasted time in failing to include benefits reform in the King’s Speech.

“They’re coming to this chaotically, too late and without a plan,” she said.

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Notwithstanding the obvious critique that the Tories had 14 years to get a grip on the situation – what’s most striking here is that, yet again, the Labour government seems to be borrowing Conservative clothes.

When challenged by Sir Trevor this morning, Streeting denied they were turning Tory – claiming the case for welfare reform and supporting people into work is a Labour argument.

But, from increasing defence spending and cutting the aid budget to scrapping NHS England, there’s a definite pattern emerging.

If you didn’t know a Labour administration was in charge, you might have assumed these were the policies of a Conservative government.

It’s a strategy which makes many of his own backbenchers deeply uncomfortable.

But it’s doing a good job of neutering the Tory opposition.

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New York lawmaker wants to tax crypto sales and transfers

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New York lawmaker wants to tax crypto sales and transfers

New York lawmaker wants to tax crypto sales and transfers

New York Assemblymember Phil Steck introduced a bill that would see the state tax the sale and transfer of crypto assets.

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Garantex had ‘contingency plans’ last time authorities tried to shut it down

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Garantex had ‘contingency plans’ last time authorities tried to shut it down

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The US government redesignated Garantex on Thursday to its list of sanctioned entities, along with its successor, Grinex, but TRM Labs suggests it may be ineffective.

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Four things we learned from Sir Mel Stride’s Electoral Dysfunction interview

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Four things we learned from Sir Mel Stride's Electoral Dysfunction interview

Since last year’s general election, Sir Mel Stride has become a familiar face for those of us who like our politics.

During the campaign, he regularly found himself on breakfast TV and radio. So much so, Sir Mel was referred to as the “minister for the morning round” by some of our industry colleagues.

By our count, he was on Sky News Breakfast at least 10 times during the campaign’s 43 days.

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Following the election, and losing the Conservative leadership race to Kemi Badenoch, Sir Mel now puts questions to Rachel Reeves as shadow chancellor.

Still seen as a safe pair of hands, Sir Mel’s penchant for doing the “morning round” hasn’t slowed down either, making regular appearances on breakfast TV and radio.

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Luckily, he found some time between all that to sit down for an interview with Sky’s Beth Rigby for the Electoral Dysfunction podcast. He spoke about his transition to Opposition, taking on Reform, and the most controversial topic in Westminster – lunch.

Here’s what we learned:

1. Opposition isn’t ‘awful’ – but it is like ‘warfare’

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‘I think people will see through Reform’s populism’

Before the election, Sir Mel served as work and pensions secretary. Shifting to the Opposition was not “awful”, despite losing the muscle of the civil service.

“But it is like guerrilla warfare,” he said.

“You suddenly lose all the trappings of government. Somebody once said to me, ‘when you get in the back of a car and you sit down and it doesn’t go anywhere, that’s when you realise you’re no longer a minister’.

“So it is that sort of sense of being looked after that disappears.”

There’s also a smaller team of Conservatives in the Commons. Before the election, Rishi Sunak had 343 MPs behind him.

Ms Badenoch currently only has 119.

“When you’re down to 120 MPs – and some set piece events, there might be only a fraction of those people there – it’s much quieter.

“What I actually often do is I can be quite provocative of the Opposition to get them going, because then at least you get something to feed off. Sometimes I do that to, just get the energy in the chamber.”

2. Being at the despatch box on big days can be ‘tricky’ – but he has a ‘secret’

You may remember Sir Mel’s lively response to Rachel Reeves’s spring statement in March. He revealed that, on those big political days, he isn’t told what the chancellor will say until about half an hour before it’s said in the Commons.

“It does give you and your team literally 10 or 15 minutes to… work out what the main things are,” he said.

However, he tells Electoral Dysfunction that you do have to be able to think on your feet in that scenario.

He said: “You are thinking about ‘what are the attack lines I’m going to use?’… and amend what you’re going to do.”

He added that he doesn’t get nervous. That might have to do with Sir Mel having been president of the Oxford Union debating society “many, many years ago”.

“Now the secret’s out. The secret is out Beth, and you’re the first to have gleaned that secret from me,” he said.

To be fair, it is on his website.

3. He’s not a huge fan of Reform

Nigel Farage
Image:
Nigel Farage

As the Conservatives battle with Reform for the right, Sir Mel didn’t have many positive words for Nigel Farage’s party.

“With Reform… these are populists, who peddle fantasy economics,” he said.

“‘Take everybody out of income tax up to £20,000 costs about £80bn according to the IFS [Institute For Fiscal Studies].”

The IFS has said it needed “more detail” to exactly cost Reform’s proposal, but “it could easily be in the range of £50 to £80bn a year”.

“I think ultimately,” Sir Mel says, “people will see through a lot of the populism that Reform stands for.”

He added that he believed that Reform’s 2024 manifesto, was, economically, “a work of fiction”.

“I mean, it’s quite dangerous, actually. I think if they’d been elected… the economy would have gone into a very bad place,” he said.

4. His ideal lunch? A cheese and ham toastie

Ms Badenoch and Sir Mel see eye-to-eye on many things - lunch isn't one of them. Pic: PA
Image:
Ms Badenoch and Sir Mel see eye-to-eye on many things – lunch isn’t one of them. Pic: PA

Sir Mel also addressed the most pressing issue of all – lunch.

If you’re unaware, this has proven a controversial subject in Westminster. Ms Badenoch told The Spectator in December she was “not a sandwich person… lunch is for wimps”.

In March, however, Ms Reeves gave a rebuttal to Electoral Dysfunction, revealing she whips up a cheddar sandwich in 11 Downing Street when she can.

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Labour MP hits out at ‘farce’ anti-corruption trial in Bangladesh
Lammy refers himself to watchdog after fishing with JD Vance

Sir Mel falls more in line with his opposite number than his leader.

“I’ve always liked a sandwich, particularly a toasted sandwich,” he said.

“I’d go with the Cadillac, the Rolls Royce of sandwiches, a ham and cheese.”

Sir Mel has previously, however, been partial to some more peculiar fillings.

“Do you remember those Breville toastie makers? When I went to university, I had one of those, or whatever the equivalent was,” he said.

“You could put baked beans in, eggs in, and all sorts of things.

“It was fantastic.”

To each, their own.

Electoral Dysfunction unites political powerhouses Beth Rigby, Ruth Davidson, and Harriet Harman to cut through the spin, and explain to you what’s really going on in Westminster and beyond.

Want to leave a question for Beth, Ruth, and Harriet?

Email: electoraldysfunction@sky.uk

WhatsApp: 07934 200444

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