A Labour Party in Tory clothing? Why Starmer’s backbenchers are deeply uncomfortable
Since taking office nine months ago Sir Keir Starmer has weathered party rows about winter fuel payments, the two child benefit cap, WASPI women, airport expansion and cuts to international aid.
All of these decisions have been justified in the name of balancing the books – filling that notorious £22bn black hole, sticking to the fiscal rules, and in the pursuit of growth as the government’s number one priority.
But welfare reform feels like a far more existential row.
Health Secretary Wes Streeting argued on Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips that the current system is “unsustainable”.
Ministers have been making the point for weeks that the health benefits bill for working-age people has ballooned by £20bn since the pandemic and is set to grow by another £18bn over the next five years, to £70bn.
But the detail of where those cuts could fall is proving highly divisive.
One proposal reportedly under consideration has been to freeze personal independence payments (PIPs) next year, rather than uprating them in line with inflation.
Charities have warned this would be a catastrophic real-terms cut to 3.6 million people.
Concerned left-wing backbenchers are calling on the government to tax the rich, not take from the most vulnerable.
The Sunday Times and Observer have now reported that Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall has dropped the idea in response to the backlash.
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Streeting defends PM’s comments on ‘flabby’ public sector
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Streeting denies Labour ‘changing into Tories’
Planned PIP freeze set to be scrapped – reports
What cuts could be announced?
Wes Streeting denied reports of a cabinet row over the plan, insisting the final package of measures hasn’t yet been published and he and his cabinet colleagues haven’t seen it.
Not the final version perhaps – but given all backbench Labour MPs who were summoned to meetings with the Number 10 policy teams for briefings this week, that response is perhaps more than a little disingenuous.
In his interview with Sir Trevor Phillips, he went on to make the broader case for PIP reform – highlighting the thousand people who sign up to the benefit every day and arguing that the system needs to be “sustainable”, to “deliver for those that need it most” and “provide the right kind of support for the different types of need that exist”.
To me this signals the government are preparing to unveil a tighter set of PIP eligibility criteria, with a refocus on supporting those with the greatest needs.
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Liz Bates: Will there be a backlash over benefits?
Changes to incapacity benefit to better incentivise working – for those who can – are also clearly on the cards.
The health secretary has been hitting out at the “overdiagnosis” of mental health conditions, arguing that “going out to work is better for your mental and physical health, than being spent and being stuck at home”, and promising benefit reforms that will help support people back to work rather than “trapped in the benefits system”.
Turning Tory?
Starmer said this week the current welfare system couldn’t be defended on economic or moral grounds.
The Conservatives don’t disagree.
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Conservatives: Scrapping NHS England is ‘right thing’
Before the election, they proposed £12bn in cuts to the welfare bill, with a focus on getting people on long-term sickness back to work.
This morning, shadow education secretary Laura Trott claimed Labour denied that welfare cuts were needed during the election campaign and had wasted time in failing to include benefits reform in the King’s Speech.
“They’re coming to this chaotically, too late and without a plan,” she said.
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Notwithstanding the obvious critique that the Tories had 14 years to get a grip on the situation – what’s most striking here is that, yet again, the Labour government seems to be borrowing Conservative clothes.
When challenged by Sir Trevor this morning, Streeting denied they were turning Tory – claiming the case for welfare reform and supporting people into work is a Labour argument.
But, from increasing defence spending and cutting the aid budget to scrapping NHS England, there’s a definite pattern emerging.
If you didn’t know a Labour administration was in charge, you might have assumed these were the policies of a Conservative government.
It’s a strategy which makes many of his own backbenchers deeply uncomfortable.
But it’s doing a good job of neutering the Tory opposition.
Mike Amesbury has officially stepped down as an MP after he was convicted of punching a man in the street.
Amesbury, who was suspended from the Labour Party, was jailed on 24 February.
Politics latest: Welfare reforms ‘imminent’
He was sentenced to 10 weeks behind bars after he pleaded guilty to the assault by beating of 45-year-old Paul Fellows in Frodsham, Cheshire, in the early hours of 26 October.
Following an appeal, his sentence was suspended for two years – so he does not have to serve it in prison.
He announced his resignation as MP for Runcorn and Helsby in a social media post on Monday, describing the assault as a “deeply regrettable incident” for which he had “rightly been punished”.
“I am sincerely sorry to Paul Fellows, my family, colleagues and constituents,” he added.
A by-election will now be triggered in Runcorn and Helsby, where constituents will vote to elect a new MP.
Mike Amesbury leaving Chester Crown Court in February. Pic: PA
By-election a ‘big test’ for PM
It will be the first by-election since Sir Keir Starmer became prime minister, in what Sky News’ political correspondent Liz Bates said would be a “big test” in a seat where Reform UK came second last year.
“Losing it would be an unmitigated disaster given the 14,000 majority achieved last time round,” said Bates.
Amesbury came first in Runcorn and Helsby with 22,358 votes at the 2024 general election – equating to 52.9% of the electorate.
Reform UK came in second with 7,662 votes (18.1%) and the Tories in third with 6,756 votes (16%).
Reform has yet to announce a candidate, but Karen Shore, the deputy leader of Cheshire West and Chester Council, will run for Labour.
The Conservatives have opted for Sean Houlston, a membership services manager for the National Federation of Builders.
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How is a by-election triggered?
Why Labour MPs are deeply uncomfortable
Sir Keir Starmer’s government has been polling very badly indeed. Pic: PA
When will the by-election be?
Under parliamentary procedure, an MP cannot simply resign but must be disqualified from holding their seat.
To do this, they must apply for a role in the paid office of the Crown, meaning they automatically lose their seat because working for the Crown is not seen as impartial.
Titles include the crown steward and bailiff of the Chiltern Hundreds and the Crown Steward and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead.
Rachel Reeves has now appointed Amesbury to be steward and bailiff of the Three Hundreds of Chiltern, meaning the parliamentary seat is officially vacant.
Once he does, the chief whip will put forward a motion to Lindsay Hoyle, the Commons speaker, to officially begin the process of disqualifying the MP – known as “moving the writ”.
The Speaker then puts the motion to MPs for a vote. If they agree, the writ passes through the Commons and ends up with the returning officer in the local constituency who oversees the by-election.
The writ is typically issued within three months of the MP resigning from their seat and in doing so, the date of the by-election is fixed.
It could potentially coincide with the local elections in May.
The welfare state will be there for those who need it “now and for years to come”, the work and pensions secretary has said – as the government faces pressure from its own MPs over benefit changes.
Liz Kendall acknowledged there has been “lots of speculation” about the government’s plans to reform welfare, which are due to be announced on Tuesday following a delay because of concerns from Labour backbenchers.
Politics latest: Welfare reforms ‘imminent’
Speaking in the House of Commons, Ms Kendall said she wanted to assure the public the announcements will “ensure there is trust and fairness in the social security system” – and that it will remain in place for those who need it.
Earlier on Monday, Sky News revealed the government has chosen not to freeze the personal independence payment (PIP) next year following pressure from Labour MPs over the past week.
Ministers had wanted to stop PIP (a payment of up to £9,000 a year for people with long-term physical and mental health conditions, and disabilities) rising with inflation as part of a drive to cut the welfare budget.
The proposal had been set to save about £5bn, as Chancellor Rachel Reeves searches for savings.
She has lost £9.9bn of fiscal headroom (the amount she could increase spending or cut taxes without breaking her fiscal rules) since the October budget due to a poor economy and geopolitical events.
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Which benefits could be cut?
Why Labour MPs are so uncomfortable
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Will there be a backlash over benefits?
What’s the government’s case?
The government is expected to make qualifying for PIP more difficult when Ms Kendall reveals her plans on Tuesday.
Sky News’ deputy political editor Sam Coates, on the Politics At Sam And Anne’s podcast, said the Treasury is also expected to abolish the Work Capability Assessment, which determines whether someone is fit or not to work and to then receive disability payments.
The government has described the system as “dysfunctional”, as those “not fit for work” do not receive employment support or further engagement after the assessment, which could lock them out of future work altogether.
Sir Keir Starmer has made cutting the welfare budget a key project, as spending on sickness benefits soared to £65bn last year – a 25% increase since the year before the pandemic – and is expected to rise to £100bn before the next general election in 2029.
The number of people in England and Wales claiming either sickness or disability benefit has gone from 2.8 million to about four million since 2019.
Ms Kendall also revealed in the Commons the number of young people not working because of mental health conditions has risen by more than 25% in the last year, with the number considered “economically inactive” now reaching 270,000.
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‘1,000 people every day signing on to PIP benefits’
Unhappy Labour MPs
Ms Kendall had been expected to announce welfare cut plans last week.
But due to the scale of the backlash, the government took the unusual step of asking all 404 Labour MPs to attend “welfare roundtables” in Downing Street last week.
Sky News’ political correspondent Amanda Akass said Ms Kendall’s Commons appearance offered no real answers to the “serious concerns” raised by MPs, though social security minister Stephen Timms insisted they would “welcome” many of the changes when they are announced.
Treasury minister Emma Reynolds earlier played down the level of discontent over plans to freeze PIP, telling Sky News the roundtables were nothing more than “everyday business”.
She pointed out Labour created the welfare state in 1945, but said it needs to be “more sustainable”.
A “significant number” of countries will provide troops to a Ukraine peacekeeping force, Sir Keir Starmer’s spokesman said.
On Saturday, leaders from 26 Western countries – plus two EU leaders and NATO’s secretary general – gathered for a virtual call of the “coalition of the willing”, hosted by Sir Keir after Volodymyr Zelenskyy accepted a 30-day interim ceasefire agreement.
Politics latest: Farage welcomes defectors
The prime minister said military chiefs would meet this Thursday to discuss the next “operational phase” in protecting Ukraine as part of a peacekeeping force – if a deal can be agreed with Russia.
Speaking on Monday, Sir Keir’s spokesman said they now expect “more than 30” countries to be involved in the coalition – but did not reveal which other countries had joined since Saturday.
He added: “The contribution capabilities will vary, but this will be a significant force, with a significant number of countries providing troops and a larger group contributing in other ways.”
The spokesman did not say which countries agreed to be part of a peacekeeping force, which Sir Keir and French leader Emmanuel Macron have confirmed the UK and France will be part of.
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What could a peacekeeping force actually do?
Could troops end up fighting?
Russia has repeatedly said it would not accept soldiers from NATO countries being stationed in Ukraine.
Asked if British troops fired on by Russia in Ukraine would be allowed to fire back, the spokesman said: “It’s worth remembering that Russia didn’t ask Ukraine when it deployed troops.
“We’ve got operational planning meetings that they are going through.”
The spokesman also said he did not know if the US – notably absent from the coalition – will be joining the military chiefs’ meeting on Thursday, but said the UK is having “regular discussions with our American counterparts”.
Both the UK and France are pushing for the US to provide security guarantees to prevent Russia from reneging on any peace deal with Ukraine.
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Who’s in the coalition of the willing?
Follow live updates from the Ukraine war
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Which nations will join peacekeeping efforts?
Trump and Putin to hold talks
Last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin said he supports the truce brokered by the US in Saudi Arabia, but “lots of questions” remain over the proposals.
Donald Trump said on Sunday night he will speak to Mr Putin on Tuesday about ending the war and negotiators have already discussed “dividing up certain assets”, including land and power plants.
He said a “lot of work” had been done over the weekend on a peace deal.
The leaders involved in Saturday’s call were from: Australia, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Spain, Sweden, Turkey, Ukraine, and the UK.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and EU Council President Antonio Costa also joined.
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