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Those with “milder mental health” issues and “lower-level physical conditions” could see their disability benefits cut, as the government looks to shave £6bn off the welfare bill.

Liz Kendall, the work and pensions secretary, is expected to target sickness and disability benefit payments for savings on Tuesday, which comes ahead of the spring statement next Wednesday.

Politics latest: Welfare reforms ‘imminent’

Her welfare reform green paper will arrive after Downing Street insisted there is a “moral and an economic case for fixing our broken system”.

Government figures argue the rising sickness and disability bill, which has ballooned since the pandemic, is unsustainable and will “leave the welfare state losing legitimacy” in the eyes of the wider public if not dealt with.

The cuts come as the chancellor eyes a hole in the public finances on the back of lower than expected growth and rising borrowing costs, with the £9.9bn headroom she had at the budget in October now wiped out.

Rachel Reeves’ self-imposed fiscal rules mean day-to-day government spending must be covered by tax revenue by 2029-30, which leaves her needing billions of pounds in spending cuts (after ruling out further tax rises, her other option).

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Welfare reforms will ensure ‘trust in system’

What changes should we expect?

Ms Kendall is expected to target personal independence payments (PIP) – one of the main forms of disability benefits for those with long-term illnesses or disabilities – amid a spike in claimants.

The PIP bill has grown from £13.7bn a year before the pandemic to £21.8bn in the current financial year, and is set to increase to £34.1bn by the end of the decade.

The number of people claiming this disability benefit is projected to more than double from two million to 4.3 million.

The work and pensions secretary will tell MPs that Labour will protect those who have a serious condition and can’t work, and the government’s rowed back from plans to freeze PIP payments after backlash from its backbench MPs.

These payments are now expected to rise in line with inflation, but the eligibility criteria will be tightened to whittle back the number of people eligible to claim.

One government figure told me it would result in some conditions, such as “milder mental health” or “lower-level physical conditions”, being ineligible for PIP.

But they stressed that those with more severe conditions and who are never going to be able to work would be protected and cared for.

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Which benefits could be cut?

Why Labour MPs are so uncomfortable

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Why is there a surge in youth unemployment?

The key principles driving reforms

The changes are likely to draw criticism from some MPs, though one senior Labour source said they didn’t think there would be any ministerial resignations over the benefit announcements.

Another Labour figure told me they would be “massively shocked” if there were resignations.

However, a number of Labour MPs have voiced their concerns, as has the Manchester mayor Andy Burnham.

In a bid to assuage MPs, the work and pensions secretary is also expected to earmark £1bn of savings into employment support programmes as she frames the reforms around three clear principles.

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The first will be to prevent people from falling into long-term economic inactivity with a better support offer to get people back into work quickly.

The second will be to change the incentive systems to move people away from welfare dependency.

This could see Ms Kendall slash the highest level of incapacity benefit for working age people who have an illness or disability that limits their ability to work, while increasing the basic rate of support for those out of work (universal credit).

This is because the lower level of unemployment benefit has led to more people claiming for additional incapacity and disability benefits, while disincentivising them to try to find work.

The government will also announce a “right to try” scheme, allowing those on incapacity benefits to try returning to work without the risk of losing their benefits, as happens in the current system.

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Will there be a backlash over benefits?

‘I don’t think they go far enough’

But with one in 10 working age people claiming sickness benefits, and one in eight young people not in education, employment or training, the reforms on Tuesday could be just the start of bigger changes – and potentially bigger political battles.

The cost of long-term sickness and disability benefits for working-age people has risen by about £20bn since the pandemic to about £48bn, and is forecast to hit almost £100bn by 2030.

“People are trapped on benefits and the bill is getting out of hand,” said one government figure.

“We are currently spending more than three times the annual policing bill on these benefits. It’s getting out of hand.

“I don’t think the reforms go far enough, and I don’t think people have clocked the size of the numbers going on here.”

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Further benefit cuts not ruled out – as minister warns ‘we are spending more on cost of failure’

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Further benefit cuts not ruled out - as minister warns 'we are spending more on cost of failure'

The work and pensions secretary has not ruled out making further cuts to the welfare budget despite already unveiling reforms designed to save £5bn.

Liz Kendall said she had made the changes – which will see the eligibility criteria for disability benefits narrowed – because she wanted to “tackle a failing system that is failing the people who depend on benefits”.

Politics live: Kendall ‘cross’ about welfare system

In an interview with Sky News’ political editor Beth Rigby, the cabinet minister denied the reforms announced today were just a “drop in the ocean”.

She said she had announced a “substantial package” – and the changes would also be aimed at getting people into work to stop the overall bill ballooning to a projected £76bn by 2030.

Ms Kendall said they would deal with a “broken assessment process”, fix “terrible financial incentives” that force people on to welfare, and would focus benefits “on those in greatest need”.

“It’s providing the largest ever package of employment support,” she told Rigby.

Pressed again on whether she would rule out more savings over the course of this parliament, Ms Kendall replied: “I’m not saying that.

“I am suggesting we talk about the proposals we are actually making, and not those which we aren’t.”

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‘Can you work’ test scrapped by Labour

What changes are being made?

Earlier today, Ms Kendall announced a raft of reforms designed to cut the government’s expenditure on long-term sickness and disability benefits for working-age people, which has risen by £20bn since the pandemic.

High on the agenda were personal independence payments (PIP), which provide money for people who have extra care needs or mobility needs as a result of a disability.

People who claim it are awarded points depending on their ability to do certain activities, like washing and preparing food, and this influences how much they will receive.

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Sky’s Political Editor Beth Rigby explains the impact Labour’s welfare reforms could have on the UK.

But Ms Kendall said from November 2026, people will need to score a minimum of four points in at least one activity to qualify for the daily living element of PIP.

Currently, the standard rate is given if people score between eight and 11 points overall, while the enhanced rate applies from 12 points.

However, Ms Kendall said the government would not freeze PIP – as reports had previously suggested – following a backlash from Labour MPs.

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How is PIP changing?
All the planned welfare reforms

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Why is the government cutting benefits?

Minister ‘cross’ about welfare system

Asked by Rigby whether she had wanted to go further by freezing PIP, Ms Kendall said she had “never started from a sort of macho, tough position”.

“I’ve never done politics like that,” she said. “This is about real people and real lives.”

Ms Kendall, who ran to be Labour leader in the 2015 leadership race won by Jeremy Corbyn, admitted she was “cross” about the state of the welfare system, which she described as “broken”.

“I’ve seen in my own constituency people written off to a life that is not the life they hoped for themselves, or their children or their families,” she said.

Addressing critics who have derided the changes as morally wrong, Ms Kendall said: “What I think is morally wrong is writing off people who could work.

“What’s morally wrong is looking at a benefit system where we are spending more and more on the costs of failure.

“And if that continues, the welfare state that we created won’t be there for the very people who need it.”

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Nicholas Prosper: Teen who murdered family ‘planned on killing at least 30 schoolchildren’

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Nicholas Prosper: Teen who murdered family 'planned on killing at least 30 schoolchildren'

A teenager who murdered his family and wanted to be the worst mass killer the UK has seen had 33 cartridges on him to carry out an attack on his former school, a court has heard.

Nicholas Prosper shot his mother Juliana Falcon, 48, sister Giselle, 13, and shot and stabbed his brother Kyle, 16, at their family home in Luton on 13 September last year.

But the 19-year-old did not plan on stopping there, according to prosecutor Timothy Cray KC, who told Luton Crown Court he had prepared the murders “for months” and wanted to kill at least 30 schoolchildren.

“His planning was cold, deliberate and without sympathy or emotion towards the actual victims or potential victims,” Mr Cray said, speaking at Prosper’s sentencing.

His “main wish”, however, was to “achieve lasting notoriety as a mass killer”, Mr Cray added, specifically to “imitate and even surpass other mass killers around the world”.

“He had conducted in-depth internet research on shootings in the United States of America, Norway, Australia and New Zealand,” he said.

“He understood his plans, if realised, would bring about the greatest number of deaths in a school or other mass shooting in the United Kingdom and possibly even in the United States of America.”

Neighbour of Nicholas Prosper: 'He seemed really chill and calm to me'
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Prosper wouldn’t engage with mental health support, the court heard

The investigation suggests that the defendant “acted alone”, he added, and “his plans did not arise from any political or ideological cause”.

Prosper had undiagnosed autism spectrum disorder (ASD), the court heard, but he showed an “extreme lack of empathy with others and an extreme lack of remorse” that can’t be explained by ASD alone.

Up until Year 11, the court heard Prosper was a “geeky” and quiet boy with a small group of friends who were into computers, but problems began in sixth form and he wouldn’t engage with mental health support.

‘Extended violent struggle’

Prosper never reached St Joseph’s Catholic Primary School, which was three-quarters of a mile from his home, as police arrested him after he escaped to a wooded area.

After he left, officers broke into his family flat at about 5.50am, following a call from a neighbour.

There, the court heard, they found Prosper’s little sister underneath a dining table in the living room, “as if she had been trying to hide there”.

His mother and brother – who was stabbed more than 100 times – were both found in the hallway.

Giselle Prosper (left), Juliana Prosper (centre), Kyle Prosper (right) found dead in a flat in Luton, Leabank, on Friday 13 September 2024. Pic: family pics issued via Bedfordshire police
Image:
Giselle Prosper (left), Juliana Prosper (centre) and Kyle Prosper. Pic: Family pics issued via Bedfordshire Police

He had planned to kill his family in their sleep, but when his mother realised something was wrong and challenged him, it led to “an extended violent struggle”.

After the horrific and noisy attack on his family members, Prosper knew police would be on their way and so had to leave three hours earlier than he had anticipated.

The teenager was then arrested by a passing police patrol as he walked along a residential road in Luton.

He had hidden the shotgun and cartridges nearby.

Prosper admitted their murders at a hearing last month, as well as purchasing a shotgun without a certificate, possession of a shotgun with intent to endanger life and possession of a kitchen knife in a public place.

Plans long in the making

These killings were planned for more than a year, the court heard, with Prosper managing to buy a shotgun with a fake firearms certificate.

He had put together a black and yellow uniform he wanted to wear for his killing spree, and he had filmed a video of himself holding a plank of wood as a mock gun.

Nicholas Prosper has admitted killing his family
Image:
Nicholas Prosper has admitted killing his family

Read more:
Juliana Prosper ‘will be terribly missed’

‘He didn’t seem like he had anything wrong with him’

Prosper had included his own name, a picture and his real address on his fake firearms licence, the court heard.

He had also inserted the signature of a Bedfordshire Police firearms sergeant on 30 August last year.

On the same day, Prosper messaged a private seller who had advertised a shotgun for £450, offering to pay £600 if cartridges were included, Mr Cray said.

The seller agreed to drop the gun off to him on 12 September, the day before the killings, prompting Prosper to respond in a message: “I look forward to meeting you.”

Forensic examiners found Prosper had fired seven cartridges, the first being a test shot into a teddy bear in his bedroom.

Prosper’s step-by-step plan

A couple of months later, a prison officer found the notes in Prosper’s trainer sole after searching his cell on 13 November.

He had written the planned shooting would be “one of the biggest events ever,” Mr Cray said.

Tributes were left outside Leabank, Luton, as police remained at the scene over the weekend. Pic: PA
Image:
Tributes were left outside the home. Pic: PA

“I was right in predicting no-one would’ve called the police had I killed them in their sleep. 3 shots under 30 seconds,” he had written.

“The only known phone call to police that day was made by the b**** at the door as a result of my B**** mother waking them up and it being turned into a long struggle.

“My plan wasn’t ‘stupid’. I was f****** right. MY MOTHER IS A STUPID F****** COW.”

The notes continued: “But why so early? So I’d have time to cannibalise my family, and rape a woman at knife point before the shooting.”

He had also written a step-by-step plan, detailing he would jump two gates and shoot down a glass door while children were together for “prayer/registration”.

He would then “shout that this is a robbery and for everyone to get down”, before shooting two teachers and killing children at Early Years Foundation Stage – the youngest.

That part of the note finished with: “Go to the next classroom. Kill a couple more. Suicide.”

‘Pain will never heal’

His father, who was also dad to Giselle and Kyle, said part of his soul died when he found out what his son had done.

In a statement read out by Mr Cray, Raymond Prosper said: “The pain of our loss will never be healed. This includes my whole family, our lives will never be the same.

“When I heard the horrific news on that day, part of my soul died too. This is a lose-lose situation for us all.”

Sentence will be passed on Wednesday.

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‘Professional travelling burglar’ broke into Newcastle striker Alexander Isak’s home and stole jewellery worth £68,000

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'Professional travelling burglar' broke into Newcastle striker Alexander Isak's home and stole jewellery worth £68,000

A member of a “professional group of travelling burglars” has been convicted after he broke into the home of Newcastle United striker Alexander Isak and stole jewellery worth £68,000.

Valentino Nikolov, 32, also took the Swedish footballer’s sports car and up to £10,000 in cash when he carried out the raid with three members of his family in April 2024.

Isak, who scored during Newcastle’s victory over Liverpool in the Carabao Cup final at the weekend, was not in the Northumberland home at the time.

Valentino Nikolov. Pic: Durham Constabulary
Image:
Valentino Nikolov. Pic: Durham Constabulary

Nikolov’s family members – brother Giacomo Nikolov, 28, sister Jela Jovanovic, 43, and her son Charlie Jovanovic, 23 – all admitted conspiracy to burglary.

However, Nikolov, from Birmingham, denied the charge and was found guilty on Tuesday following a trial at Newcastle Crown Court.

His three family members, who all lived in Italy and travelled to the UK to carry out the burglary, will be sentenced at a later date.

Isak noticed bins were moved

Dan Cordey, prosecuting, told jurors how Isak left his home between 4pm and 10pm on 4 April and discovered the break-in when he returned and saw his bins had been moved.

The gang smashed a glass door to enter the property before entering the TV room and carrying out an “untidy search”, Mr Cordey said.

Giacomo Nikolov. Pic: Durham Constabulary
Image:
Giacomo Nikolov. Pic: Durham Constabulary

Isak told detectives that he kept cash in bags upstairs, made up of notes of varying denominations as well as coins, and the amount taken was between £5,000 and £10,000.

The 25-year-old striker added that bespoke men’s jewellery from Frost of London worth about £68,000 – made up of bracelets, necklaces and rings – was taken, along with his Audi RS6 estate car.

Jela Jovanovic. Pic: Durham Constabulary
Image:
Jela Jovanovic. Pic: Durham Constabulary

A member of the public later found the car abandoned and called the police, the jury heard.

The gang also took a safe which had been left by the home’s previous tenant and did not contain anything valuable, Mr Cordey said.

Isak told police he had never used the safe and he had not been able to open it.

Charlie Jovanovic. Pic: Durham Constabulary
Image:
Charlie Jovanovic. Pic: Durham Constabulary

Images of raid on ‘doggy cam’

CCTV images of the break-in were recorded on what Mr Cordey described as a “doggy cam”.

The prosecution said: “This was a professional group of travelling burglars.

“It contained one female and three men – all related.

“Two of those men and one female have admitted their part in pleading guilty.”

Read more from Sky News:
Teen planned on killing ‘at least 30 children’
The Londoner locked up in a forgotten Syrian prison
English town where nearly a third of adults are not in work

Alexander Isak lifts the Carabao Cup trophy after Newcastle's victory over Liverpool on Sunday. Pic: PA
Image:
Isak with the trophy after Newcastle’s Carabao Cup victory over Liverpool on Sunday. Pic: PA

Gang used Citroen and Ford motorhome

The thieves had already stolen jewellery and clothes worth more than £1m and the CBE medal belonging to Tyneside businesswoman Helen McArdle, as well as designer goods worth £100,000 from a woman in Whitburn, Sunderland, in the days before breaking into Isak’s home.

The gang arrived in the UK via a ferry from Calais to Dover in a Citroen C3 and a Ford motorhome last March.

They headed to London then drove to the North East a few days later, the court has heard.

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The gang used the Citroen to travel to break-ins and the motorhome was a base where they slept.

Nikolov represented himself and used an Italian interpreter during his trial.

Safet Ramic, who is the 58-year-old father of Valentino Nikolov’s former partner, and who is from Winson Street, Birmingham, was cleared of a single charge of handling stolen goods.

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