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Those with “milder mental health” issues and “lower-level physical conditions” could see their disability benefits cut, as the government looks to shave £6bn off the welfare bill.

Liz Kendall, the work and pensions secretary, is expected to target sickness and disability benefit payments for savings on Tuesday, which comes ahead of the spring statement next Wednesday.

Politics latest: Welfare reforms ‘imminent’

Her welfare reform green paper will arrive after Downing Street insisted there is a “moral and an economic case for fixing our broken system”.

Government figures argue the rising sickness and disability bill, which has ballooned since the pandemic, is unsustainable and will “leave the welfare state losing legitimacy” in the eyes of the wider public if not dealt with.

The cuts come as the chancellor eyes a hole in the public finances on the back of lower than expected growth and rising borrowing costs, with the £9.9bn headroom she had at the budget in October now wiped out.

Rachel Reeves’ self-imposed fiscal rules mean day-to-day government spending must be covered by tax revenue by 2029-30, which leaves her needing billions of pounds in spending cuts (after ruling out further tax rises, her other option).

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Welfare reforms will ensure ‘trust in system’

What changes should we expect?

Ms Kendall is expected to target personal independence payments (PIP) – one of the main forms of disability benefits for those with long-term illnesses or disabilities – amid a spike in claimants.

The PIP bill has grown from £13.7bn a year before the pandemic to £21.8bn in the current financial year, and is set to increase to £34.1bn by the end of the decade.

The number of people claiming this disability benefit is projected to more than double from two million to 4.3 million.

The work and pensions secretary will tell MPs that Labour will protect those who have a serious condition and can’t work, and the government’s rowed back from plans to freeze PIP payments after backlash from its backbench MPs.

These payments are now expected to rise in line with inflation, but the eligibility criteria will be tightened to whittle back the number of people eligible to claim.

One government figure told me it would result in some conditions, such as “milder mental health” or “lower-level physical conditions”, being ineligible for PIP.

But they stressed that those with more severe conditions and who are never going to be able to work would be protected and cared for.

Read more:
Which benefits could be cut?

Why Labour MPs are so uncomfortable

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Why is there a surge in youth unemployment?

The key principles driving reforms

The changes are likely to draw criticism from some MPs, though one senior Labour source said they didn’t think there would be any ministerial resignations over the benefit announcements.

Another Labour figure told me they would be “massively shocked” if there were resignations.

However, a number of Labour MPs have voiced their concerns, as has the Manchester mayor Andy Burnham.

In a bid to assuage MPs, the work and pensions secretary is also expected to earmark £1bn of savings into employment support programmes as she frames the reforms around three clear principles.

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The first will be to prevent people from falling into long-term economic inactivity with a better support offer to get people back into work quickly.

The second will be to change the incentive systems to move people away from welfare dependency.

This could see Ms Kendall slash the highest level of incapacity benefit for working age people who have an illness or disability that limits their ability to work, while increasing the basic rate of support for those out of work (universal credit).

This is because the lower level of unemployment benefit has led to more people claiming for additional incapacity and disability benefits, while disincentivising them to try to find work.

The government will also announce a “right to try” scheme, allowing those on incapacity benefits to try returning to work without the risk of losing their benefits, as happens in the current system.

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Will there be a backlash over benefits?

‘I don’t think they go far enough’

But with one in 10 working age people claiming sickness benefits, and one in eight young people not in education, employment or training, the reforms on Tuesday could be just the start of bigger changes – and potentially bigger political battles.

The cost of long-term sickness and disability benefits for working-age people has risen by about £20bn since the pandemic to about £48bn, and is forecast to hit almost £100bn by 2030.

“People are trapped on benefits and the bill is getting out of hand,” said one government figure.

“We are currently spending more than three times the annual policing bill on these benefits. It’s getting out of hand.

“I don’t think the reforms go far enough, and I don’t think people have clocked the size of the numbers going on here.”

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Nigel Farage’s deportation plan relies on these conditions – legal expert explains if it could work

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Nigel Farage's deportation plan relies on these conditions - legal expert explains if it could work

Explaining how they plan to tackle what they described as illegal migration, Nigel Farage and his Reform UK colleague Zia Yusuf were happy to disclose some of the finer details – how much money migrants would be offered to leave and what punishments they would receive if they returned.

But the bigger picture was less clear.

How would Reform win a Commons majority, at least another 320 seats, in four years’ time – or sooner if, as Mr Farage implied, Labour was forced to call an early election?

How would his party win an election at all if, as its leader suggested, other parties began to adopt his policies?

Politics latest: Starmer ‘angry’ about Farage’s language on migrant hotels

Highly detailed legislation would be needed – what Mr Farage calls his Illegal Migration (Mass Deportation) Bill.

But Reform would not have a majority in the House of Lords and, given the responsibilities of the upper house to scrutinise legislation in detail, it could take a year or more from the date of an election for his bill to become law.

Reform’s four-page policy document says the legislation would have to disapply:

The United Nations refugee convention of 1951, extended in 1967, which says people who have a well-founded fear of persecution must not be sent back to a country where they face serious threats to their life or freedom

The United Nations convention against torture, whose signatories agree not expel, return or extradite anyone to a country where there are substantial grounds to believe the returned person would be in danger of being tortured

The Council of Europe anti-trafficking convention, which requires states to provide assistance for victims

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Farage sets out migration plan

According to the policy document, derogation from these treaties is “justified under the Vienna Convention doctrine of state necessity”.

That’s odd, because there’s no mention of necessity in the Vienna Convention on the law of treaties – and because member states can already “denounce” (leave) the three treaties by giving notice.

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It would take up to a year – but so would the legislation. Only six months’ notice would be needed to leave the European Convention on Human Rights, another of Reform’s objectives.

Read more:
Women and children will be detained under Farage plans
Far right ’emboldened’ says MP as Starmer faces mounting pressure over immigration

Mr Farage acknowledged that other European states were having to cope with an influx of migrants. Why weren’t those countries trying to give up their international obligations?

His answer was to blame UK judges for applying the law. Once his legislation had been passed, Mr Farage promised, there would be nothing the courts could do to stop people being deported to countries that would take them. His British Bill of Rights would make that clear.

Courts will certainly give effect to the will of parliament as expressed in legislation. But the meaning of that legislation is for the judiciary to decide. Did parliament really intend to send migrants back to countries where they are likely to face torture or death, the judges may be asking themselves in the years to come.

They will answer questions such as that by examining the common law that Mr Farage so much admires – the wisdom expressed in past decisions that have not been superseded by legislation. He cannot be confident that the courts will see the problem in quite the same way that he does.

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Six injured after Leicestershire dog attacks

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Six injured after Leicestershire dog attacks

Six people are believed to have been injured after dog attacks in Leicestershire, police have said.

Officers received two calls regarding dog attacks in the area of Beveridge Lane, Bardon Hill, on Thursday morning – one at 6.30am and the other at 7.44am.

Leicestershire Police said that in the first call to police, a person reported seeing a man being attacked by two dogs.

Upon arrival, no dogs were located, but a victim was identified.

Later, in the second call to the force, three people were reported to have been bitten in the same location.

Two dogs – confirmed to be Caucasian shepherds – were then discovered after firearms officers, a police dog and its handler were deployed.

The force added that both dogs were safely removed and are now being held in secure kennels.

In an update on Tuesday, officers said that two further people had come forward to report they were bitten by a dog in the same location at the time, bringing the total to six.

Read more from Sky News:
‘Headphone dodgers’ targeted by new TfL campaign
Epping migrant hotel resident appears in court

Women and children will be detained under Farage deportation plans

Two people, a girl aged 17 and a man aged 47, were arrested on suspicion of being in charge of a dangerously out of control dog in a public place.

The man was also arrested for a further two offences under the Animal Welfare Act. Both have been released under investigation.

Leicestershire Police also said it made a referral to the Independent Office for Police Conduct because of a prior report made about the dogs.

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Farage’s small boats plan not about policy but putting Labour and Tories on the spot

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Farage's small boats plan not about policy but putting Labour and Tories on the spot

If you want a dissection of whether the £10bn cost of Reform UK’s new deportation policy is an underestimate, the analysis that follows is going to disappoint.

Likewise, if you are here to hear chapter and verse about the unacknowledged difficulties in striking international migrant returns agreements – which are at the heart of Nigel Farage’s latest plan – or a piece that dwells on how he seemed to hand over questions of substance and detail to a colleague, again, prepare to be let down.

Like a magician’s prestige, if you laser focus on the policy specifics of Tuesday’s Farage small boat plan – outlined in a vast hangar outside Oxford, striking for its scale and echo – you risk misunderstanding the real trick, and Reform’s objective for the day.

Politics latest: Farage told to apologise for small boats crisis

For Farage has been around long enough in British politics that we should acknowledge upfront how he pulls the wool over his opponents’ eyes, and hence why he seems to wrongfoot them so regularly.

The intent was not to present proposals that will turn into policy reality in 2029.

More on Conservatives

Nor was it about converting voters in any great number to Reform – if you warmed to Farage before, you might like him a bit more after this, in your view, straight-talking press conference.

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Farage’s deportation plan: Analysed

If you detested him, you will likely feel that more strongly and draw comparisons with Enoch Powell. I suspect he will be unbothered by either.

Instead, his announcement was about two things: seizing the agenda (ensuring more coverage of an issue redolent of the failure of the two biggest parties in British politics); and then putting both those other parties on the spot.

Success or failure for Farage, in other words, will come in how the Labour and Tory parties respectively respond in the coming days. Look what he’s done to the Tories.

The real policy meat of his speech comes in the Farage promise to rip up the post-Second World War settlement for refugees, drawn up with fresh memories of persecuted hordes fleeing the Nazis.

Along with an exit from the European Convention on Human Rights, the Reform UK leader would pause Britain’s membership of the 1951 Refugee Convention, the UN Convention Against Torture, and the Council of Europe Anti-Trafficking Convention.

Read more: Is it time for a different approach to stop people smugglers?

The pause of British membership of these treaties and conventions may even turn out to be temporary, he said.

“We do think there is hope that the 1951 Refugee Convention of the UN can be revisited and redefined for the modern world,” he said.

But action, he argues, is needed now because the 1951 UN Refugee Convention obliges signatories to settle anyone with a “well-founded fear” of persecution.

That, critics say, has become the “founding charter” of today’s people-smuggling industry and allows traffickers the right to offer a legal guarantee that if their clients make it to shore they’re covered – and boast this works in 98% of cases for the Sudanese and Syrians, and 87% for Eritreans – the recently updated approval rates. A big moment for a major party.

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Farage questioned over deportation plans

Yet this is almost – but not quite – the Conservative position. On 6 June this year, Kemi Badenoch gave a speech saying she was minded to pull out of the European Convention of Human Rights, and had commissioned a review led by Lord Woolfson to examine whether and how ECHR withdrawal, and pulling out of the the Refugee Convention and the European Convention Against Trafficking, might help.

So she added: “I won’t commit my party to leaving the ECHR or other treaties without a clear plan to do so and without a full understanding of all the consequences.

“We saw that holding a referendum without a plan to get Brexit done, led to years of wrangling and endless arguments until we got it sorted in 2019. We cannot go through that again.

“I want us to fully understand and debate what the unintended consequences of that decision might be and understand what issues will still remain unresolved even if we leave.

“It is very important for our country that we get this right. We must look before we leap.”

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In other words, what Reform UK did was steal a march on a likely Tory decision at conference.

Farage has eaten Badenoch’s homework. And she has been left accusing him of being a copycat of a policy she hadn’t quite adopted.

Then there is Labour. They accept the ends of Farage’s argument, but not, it seems, the means.

Home Secretary Yvette Cooper is reviewing parts of the European Convention on Human Rights – Article 3 (which prohibits torture, inhuman, or degrading treatment or punishment) and Article 8 (which protects the right to a family life).

But that hasn’t emerged yet, and will not, at its maximalist outcome, recommend the UK withdrawal from the convention.

And will Labour strategists really want the spectre of ministers having to repeatedly argue in favour of ECHR membership in interviews, given that is likely to be the position of two of their biggest opponents? Another conundrum for Labour, which has Farage as the author.

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From Saturday: Police clash with protesters

Then there is the question of language for both Labour and the Tories. Dare they go as far as Reform UK and adopt a tone more aggressive than anything seen in recent years – one which talks of “invasions” and “fighting age males” and sending people back to “where they came from”?

Will both political parties hold that line that this language, in their view, goes too far?

Tuesday’s speech was less about voters, more about Westminster politics as we enter political season. All done at an hour-long press conference that gave Farage a platform. Can the other party leaders now look like they’re ignoring him and wrestle back the microphone? Or can they not help themselves and respond in kind?

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