Those with “milder mental health” issues and “lower-level physical conditions” could see their disability benefits cut, as the government looks to shave £6bn off the welfare bill.

Liz Kendall, the work and pensions secretary, is expected to target sickness and disability benefit payments for savings on Tuesday, which comes ahead of the spring statement next Wednesday.

Politics latest: Welfare reforms ‘imminent’

Her welfare reform green paper will arrive after Downing Street insisted there is a “moral and an economic case for fixing our broken system”.

Government figures argue the rising sickness and disability bill, which has ballooned since the pandemic, is unsustainable and will “leave the welfare state losing legitimacy” in the eyes of the wider public if not dealt with.

The cuts come as the chancellor eyes a hole in the public finances on the back of lower than expected growth and rising borrowing costs, with the £9.9bn headroom she had at the budget in October now wiped out.

Rachel Reeves’ self-imposed fiscal rules mean day-to-day government spending must be covered by tax revenue by 2029-30, which leaves her needing billions of pounds in spending cuts (after ruling out further tax rises, her other option).

What changes should we expect?

Ms Kendall is expected to target personal independence payments (PIP) – one of the main forms of disability benefits for those with long-term illnesses or disabilities – amid a spike in claimants.

The PIP bill has grown from £13.7bn a year before the pandemic to £21.8bn in the current financial year, and is set to increase to £34.1bn by the end of the decade.

The number of people claiming this disability benefit is projected to more than double from two million to 4.3 million.

The work and pensions secretary will tell MPs that Labour will protect those who have a serious condition and can’t work, and the government’s rowed back from plans to freeze PIP payments after backlash from its backbench MPs.

These payments are now expected to rise in line with inflation, but the eligibility criteria will be tightened to whittle back the number of people eligible to claim.

One government figure told me it would result in some conditions, such as “milder mental health” or “lower-level physical conditions”, being ineligible for PIP.

But they stressed that those with more severe conditions and who are never going to be able to work would be protected and cared for.

Read more:
Which benefits could be cut?
Why Labour MPs are so uncomfortable

The key principles driving reforms

The changes are likely to draw criticism from some MPs, though one senior Labour source said they didn’t think there would be any ministerial resignations over the benefit announcements.

Another Labour figure told me they would be “massively shocked” if there were resignations.

However, a number of Labour MPs have voiced their concerns, as has the Manchester mayor Andy Burnham.

In a bid to assuage MPs, the work and pensions secretary is also expected to earmark £1bn of savings into employment support programmes as she frames the reforms around three clear principles.

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The first will be to prevent people from falling into long-term economic inactivity with a better support offer to get people back into work quickly.

The second will be to change the incentive systems to move people away from welfare dependency.

This could see Ms Kendall slash the highest level of incapacity benefit for working age people who have an illness or disability that limits their ability to work, while increasing the basic rate of support for those out of work (universal credit).

This is because the lower level of unemployment benefit has led to more people claiming for additional incapacity and disability benefits, while disincentivising them to try to find work.

The government will also announce a “right to try” scheme, allowing those on incapacity benefits to try returning to work without the risk of losing their benefits, as happens in the current system.

‘I don’t think they go far enough’

But with one in 10 working age people claiming sickness benefits, and one in eight young people not in education, employment or training, the reforms on Tuesday could be just the start of bigger changes – and potentially bigger political battles.

The cost of long-term sickness and disability benefits for working-age people has risen by about £20bn since the pandemic to about £48bn, and is forecast to hit almost £100bn by 2030.

“People are trapped on benefits and the bill is getting out of hand,” said one government figure.

“We are currently spending more than three times the annual policing bill on these benefits. It’s getting out of hand.

“I don’t think the reforms go far enough, and I don’t think people have clocked the size of the numbers going on here.”

In Thailand, Richard Burrows found an escape – a place to hide for nearly 30 years.

After abusing children, he fled the UK to avoid prosecution. But the severity of his crimes didn’t push him to live a low-profile life – far from it.

In the sandy shores of Phuket, he became very well known and liked. Everyone there knew him as Peter Smith, an identity he stole from a passport that wasn’t his.

No one appeared to know where he had gone after he failed to attend the start of his trial over alleged child sex offences at Chester Crown Court in 1997.

His abuse spanned a wide period from the 1960s to the 1990s. Some of the offences occurred at a children’s school in Cheshire and others happened in the Midlands, through his involvement with the scouts.

But it would take 27 years for him to be caught, finally arrested at Heathrow Airport.

He had settled in Thailand with a familiar routine and a wide circle of acquaintances. He would regularly dine at a small roadside restaurant, often ordering fish and chips.

The owner Pakorn Sanwongwan says the man they knew was kind and generous. They had no idea of his past.

“I’m very shocked because from my perspective, he was a good person. For the past 24 years he had recommended our restaurant to lots of people and brought us new customers,” he said.

His wife Supaporn says they were shocked when just a few months ago he announced he was “going to the UK and never coming back”.

It’s easy to see how many people were duped. He kept the reality of what he’d done largely hidden. And his was not a life lived under the radar.

He was involved in the local sailing community. His friends say he’d worked with local schools. And he’d worked in local media.

Burrows lived in a container, a short drive from the coastline. But things started to unravel when money ran thin.

He began opening up to a very small number of close friends, saying he needed to return to the UK to see family and was struggling financially.

“Ben”, not his real name, was among those close confidantes.

He said: “I knew him for 25 years. Only about three to four years ago, he started sort of revealing a few things that he’s not actually who his passport says he is and that he was searched by the UK authorities for some allegations, apparently, he’s done.”

Ben says he had no idea of the severity of the charges against him. The man he thought he knew was a kind soul, giving and supportive of many he met.

There were, he says, signs of his attraction to young people, but it didn’t raise alarm bells.

“Peter” had younger companions who cooked for him at home and he would finance the education of some of them, Ben told us.

“Obviously it was visible that he liked the younger generation. But that he would go for minors I would never have thought,” he said.

All of the offences were committed during Burrows’ time in the United Kingdom, and no charges have been brought against him in Thailand.

If Ben knew the details of Burrows’ sordid past, he may have thought differently. But Burrows was living a lie, enjoying a secret life in the sun.

Remarkably, Burrows went undetected for decades – his visa based on a fake passport, consistently renewed.

It’s unclear what exactly motivated his attempt to move back to the UK, a move that would end in his arrest at Heathrow.

Some we spoke to said he had run out of money and that he wanted to see family. But some suspected he was trying to make peace with his past.

Finally, he has been brought to justice. But his victims were left to deal with the horrific aftermath of his abuse.

Whilst he is now behind bars, they will also have to wrestle with the fact their abuser was able to enjoy a free and full life for so long.

After Lucy Letby was sentenced to 15 whole-life terms for murdering seven babies and attempting to murder seven others, an inquiry was launched to ensure lessons were learnt.

The Thirlwall Inquiry is examining three broad themes – the experiences of all victims’ parents, how the concerns of clinicians were handled, and to ensure lessons are learnt from the case of the most prolific child serial killer in modern British history.

About 133 witnesses, including parents who lost their children, hospital executives, and Letby’s former colleagues at the Countess of Chester Hospital, have provided live evidence to the inquiry since September, with a further 396 giving written statements.

The closing statements this week come days after a police investigation into corporate manslaughter was widened to include gross negligence manslaughter.

The inquiry also heard that two baby deaths remain the subject of ongoing police investigation, which Letby has been interviewed in prison over.

Inquiry chair Lady Justice Thirlwall is expected to publish her official report in the autumn, outlining the detailed findings and recommendations based on the evidence that has been heard.

This week, the Thirlwall Inquiry is hearing closing submissions from the various interested parties. Here’s what has been said during the key testimonies so far.

Why is it called the Thirwall inquiry and why are there calls for it to be suspended?

Opening the inquiry at Liverpool Town Hall on 10 September last year, Lady Justice Thirlwall said the probe bears her surname so that the parents do not repeatedly see the name of the person convicted of harming their babies.

She said the babies who died or were injured would be at the “heart of the inquiry” and condemned comments at the time that questioned the validity of Letby’s convictions – which the nurse tried and failed to challenge at the Court of Appeal – and some of the evidence used at trial.

The inquiry also remains separate to a 14-member expert panel, led by retired neonatologist Dr Shoo Lee and senior Conservative MP David Davis, which in February said it had analysed medical evidence considered during Letby’s trial and claimed there was no medical evidence that the nurse murdered or attempted to murder 14 premature babies.

Letby’s lawyers have since applied for a review of her case as a “potential miscarriage of justice” by the Criminal Cases Review Commission (CCRC) after two failed bids at the Court of Appeal.

On Monday, the judge said she had received a request last month from lawyers representing former executives at the Countess of Chester Hospital asking for the public inquiry to be suspended.

Lady Justice Thirlwall also said she had recently received a written request from solicitors representing Letby for her to pause the inquiry.

In the letter to the judge, which Sky News has seen, Letby’s lawyers warned Lady Justice Thirlwall that her final report would “not only be redundant but likely unreliable” if it was not put on hold until after the conclusion of the former nurse’s CCRC application.

Letby couldn’t ‘wait to get first death out of the way’

One of the nurses who started as a newly qualified nurse at the Countess of Chester Hospital on the same day as Letby told the inquiry that the serial killer had told her she “can’t wait for her first death to get it out the way”.

The nurse said she thought the comment was “strange” at the time, but she put it down to Letby just making conversation.

She also recalled Letby being “animated” when telling her she had been involved with resuscitation attempts of a child on the ward in 2012.

“It was kind of like she was excited to tell me about it,” the nurse said.

‘Likely’ Letby murdered or attacked more children

Neonatal clinical lead at the Countess of Chester Hospital, Dr Stephen Brearey, told the inquiry that he thought it was “likely” Letby murdered or started to harm babies prior to June 2015.

He agreed that “on reflection” several unexpected collapses and deaths before that date now “appear suspicious”.

Dr Brearey added he did not have concerns about those incidents at the time, saying that hospital staff “thought we were going through a busy or particularly difficult patch”.

The inquiry was told that the dislodgement of breathing tubes, which was how Letby tried to kill Child K, generally occurs on less than 1% of shifts.

However, it happened on 40% of shifts that Letby worked when she was a trainee at Liverpool Women’s Hospital.

Newborn given potentially fatal morphine overdose

Two years before Letby carried out the murder of Child A, she and another nurse gave a potentially fatal dose of morphine to a newborn baby.

Neonatal unit ward deputy ward manager, Yvonne Griffiths, told the inquiry that the infant received 10 times the correct amount of the painkiller at the end of a night shift in July 2013.

Describing it as a “very serious error”, she said the infant could have died if colleagues had not spotted the error an hour later.

Letby was told she had to stop administering controlled drugs as a result of the error, a decision that she told management she was not happy about.

Letby offered ‘tips’ on how to get away with murder

In a WhatsApp exchange in 2017, Letby and union rep Hayley Griffiths discussed the US legal drama How To Get Away With Murder.

The discussion took place a year after the neonatal nurse was moved to clerical duties following concerns she may have been deliberately harming babies.

In a message to Letby, Ms Griffiths wrote: “I’m currently watching a programme called How To Get Away With Murder. I’m learning some good tips.”

To which Letby replied: “I could have given you some tips x.”

Ms Griffiths responded saying she needed “someone to practice on to see if [she] could get away with it”, and Letby replied: “I can think of two people you could practice on and will help you cover it up x.”

The union rep said: “I truly and deeply regret having started that conversation… this is completely unprofessional.”

No support or counselling given to parents

The parents of two triplet boys murdered by Letby told the inquiry they were given no support or counselling after the deaths of their children.

The children died on successive days in June 2016. Letby was their designated nurse and their deaths led to her being removed from the Countess of Chester Hospital’s neonatal unit to a non-patient facing role.

The triplets’ father said: “Following the deaths of our children, we didn’t receive any support or counselling from anyone. Had we received some support, we might have been in a better position to try and act on what our instincts were telling us, which was that something had gone badly wrong.”

Senior consultant: ‘I should have been braver’

Letby’s trial in 2023 heard that senior paediatrician Dr Ravi Jayaram caught the serial killer “virtually red-handed” after an incident in a nursery room at the hospital in February 2016.

Addressing that incident while giving evidence at the inquiry, Dr Jayaram said he had walked into the nursery after feeling “significant discomfort” that Letby was alone with Child K.

Read more from Sky News:
Letby defence calls for miscarriage of justice investigation
Letby interviewed in prison over more baby deaths

After walking in, he said he saw “a baby clearly deteriorating” and the child’s endotracheal tube (ET) dislodged. Despite his concern over the incident, the consultant did not tell anyone at the hospital, or the police.

Explaining why he said nothing, Dr Jayaram said: “It’s the fear of not being believed. It’s the fear of ridicule. It’s the fear of accusations of bullying.

“I should have been braver and should have had more courage because it was not just an isolated thing. There was already a lot of other information.”

Hospital boss: ‘I should’ve done better’

Tony Chambers, the former chief executive of the Countess of Chester Hospital, was a key witness to give evidence during the inquiry.

During his evidence, Mr Chambers offered an apology to the families who had fallen victim to Letby and said his language had been “clumsy” in telling the killer nurse the hospital had “her back”.

“I absolutely acknowledged that we hadn’t got that right. We could have done better, we should have done better. I should have done better,” he said.

When pressed on if he tried to “stall and obstruct the police being called or this being made public”, he added: “Had that been what I had done then it would be. But I think it’s an outrageous statement and I do not believe it represents my actions.”

Jeremy Hunt: ‘Terrible tragedy happened on my watch’

Jeremy Hunt appeared at the inquiry in January where he apologised to the victims’ families, saying he was sorry “for anything that didn’t happen that could potentially have prevented such an appalling crime”.

Mr Hunt was health secretary at the time Letby committed her crimes in 2015 and 2016.

The MP told the inquiry the former nurse’s crimes were “a terrible tragedy” which “happened on my watch” and “although he doesn’t bear direct personal responsibility for everything that happens in every ward in the NHS” he does have “ultimate responsibility for the NHS”.

He recommended that medical examiners should be trained to see the signs or patterns of malicious harm in the work of a healthcare professional.