Labour faces a major challenge from its own backbenchers ahead of an announcement to restrict some sickness and disability benefits.
The plans are likely to be opposed by those in the party who are concerned about attempts to slash the ballooning welfare bill and encourage adults back to work.
Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall is expected to set out the reforms on Tuesday, but details of where those cuts could fall is proving highly divisive within Labour.
Total welfare spending in 2023-23 was about £296bn, by the end of the decade it is forecast to reach almost £378bn.
The chancellor needs to find savings to meet her strict fiscal rules and Rachel Reeves has previously insisted “we do need to get a grip” on the welfare budget.
One proposal reportedly under consideration is to save around £5bn by freezing or tightening the rules around the personal independence payment (PIP).
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But Labour’s Mayor of Greater Manchester Andy Burnham, a former Labour health secretary, has “urged great caution on how changes are made” although, writing in The Times, he accepts “the benefits system needs a radical overhaul”.
“I would share concerns about changing support and eligibility to benefits while leaving the current top-down system broadly in place. It would trap too many people in poverty,” he added.
Health Secretary Wes Streeting argued on Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips that the current system is “unsustainable” and welfare reforms are needed. He also said mental health conditions are often overdiagnosed.
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0:45
‘1,000 people every day signing on to PIP benefits’
PIP is a payment of up to £9,000 a year for people with long-term physical and mental health conditions.
Campaigner Steve Morris is one of those 3.6 million PIP claimants and says freezing it at the current level would make his life much harder.
Image: Steve Morris claims PIP and is worried about what reforming the benefit could mean for him
“I’m deafblind. PIP makes a huge difference to my life. It enables me to, afford some of the additional costs that are associated with my disability.
“For so many disabled people benefits are a lifeline. So to hear that lifeline might be taken away or severely restricted is hugely concerning.”
Liz Kendall told The Sunday Times it was an “absolute principle” to protect welfare payments for people unable to work. “For those who absolutely cannot work, this is not about that,” she said.
But she said the number of people on PIP is set to more than double this decade, partly driven by younger people.
Sky’s political correspondent Liz Bates said the government had been expected to announce a detailed plan over welfare spending last week.
“This particular issue of PIPs stopped that plan being announced because of the strength of backlash… from the backbenches all the way up to cabinet level.”
She added that talks were going on behind the scenes about whether the policy could be softened in some way, although it was unlikely reforms could be avoided completely ahead of the spring statement on 26 March.
“Could there be a bit of backtracking from Number 10 and from the department? This is what we’re going to find out on Tuesday. There is, of course, a lot of pressure coming from the chancellor.”
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3:05
Welfare system ‘letting people down’
Labour is also aiming to tackle economic inactivity – especially among those under 35 – with an increasing proportion out of work due to long-term sickness.
A recent PwC report warns “a significant proportion of working adults are close to becoming economically inactive” and ill-health “is a major driver”.
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The poll of 4,000 people shows 10% of the workforce are currently actively considering leaving work, and not just their current role.
That rises to 37% of those aged 18-24, who say they have either seriously considered leaving work in the last year, or are actively considering doing so now.
While the factors are complex and vary by age, the report reflects mental health is a major concern with 42% of 18-24 year-olds citing it as the biggest reason to leave work.
Image: Backbench Labour MPs are concerned welfare reforms will harm vulnerable people claiming benefits. File pic: PA
On Sunday, Ms Kendall teased one policy announcement to attract people back to work, effectively giving disabled people the right to try employment without the risk of losing their benefits.
The so-called “right to try guarantee” aims to prevent those people who receive health-related benefits from having their entitlements automatically re-assessed if they enter employment.
The Conservatives support welfare reform but claim Labour is “divided” over the issue and “cannot deliver the decisive change we need”.
Shadow work and pensions secretary Helen Whately said: “The government’s dithering and delay is costing taxpayers millions every day and failing the people who rely on the welfare system.”
He was sentenced to 10 weeks behind bars after he pleaded guilty to the assault by beating of 45-year-old Paul Fellows in Frodsham, Cheshire, in the early hours of 26 October.
He announced his resignation as MP for Runcorn and Helsby in a social media post on Monday, describing the assault as a “deeply regrettable incident” for which he had “rightly been punished”.
“I am sincerely sorry to Paul Fellows, my family, colleagues and constituents,” he added.
A by-election will now be triggered in Runcorn and Helsby, where constituents will vote to elect a new MP.
Image: Mike Amesbury leaving Chester Crown Court in February. Pic: PA
By-election a ‘big test’ for PM
It will be the first by-election since Sir Keir Starmer became prime minister, in what Sky News’ political correspondent Liz Bates said would be a “big test” in a seat where Reform UK came second last year.
“Losing it would be an unmitigated disaster given the 14,000 majority achieved last time round,” said Bates.
Amesbury came first in Runcorn and Helsby with 22,358 votes at the 2024 general election – equating to 52.9% of the electorate.
Reform UK came in second with 7,662 votes (18.1%) and the Tories in third with 6,756 votes (16%).
Reform has yet to announce a candidate, but Karen Shore, the deputy leader of Cheshire West and Chester Council, will run for Labour.
The Conservatives have opted for Sean Houlston, a membership services manager for the National Federation of Builders.
Image: Sir Keir Starmer’s government has been polling very badly indeed. Pic: PA
When will the by-election be?
Under parliamentary procedure, an MP cannot simply resign but must be disqualified from holding their seat.
To do this, they must apply for a role in the paid office of the Crown, meaning they automatically lose their seat because working for the Crown is not seen as impartial.
Titles include the crown steward and bailiff of the Chiltern Hundreds and the Crown Steward and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead.
Rachel Reeves has now appointed Amesbury to be steward and bailiff of the Three Hundreds of Chiltern, meaning the parliamentary seat is officially vacant.
Once he does, the chief whip will put forward a motion to Lindsay Hoyle, the Commons speaker, to officially begin the process of disqualifying the MP – known as “moving the writ”.
The Speaker then puts the motion to MPs for a vote. If they agree, the writ passes through the Commons and ends up with the returning officer in the local constituency who oversees the by-election.
The writ is typically issued within three months of the MP resigning from their seat and in doing so, the date of the by-election is fixed.
It could potentially coincide with the local elections in May.
The welfare state will be there for those who need it “now and for years to come”, the work and pensions secretary has said – as the government faces pressure from its own MPs over benefit changes.
Liz Kendall acknowledged there has been “lots of speculation” about the government’s plans to reform welfare, which are due to be announced on Tuesday following a delay because of concerns from Labour backbenchers.
Speaking in the House of Commons, Ms Kendall said she wanted to assure the public the announcements will “ensure there is trust and fairness in the social security system” – and that it will remain in place for those who need it.
Ministers had wanted to stop PIP (a payment of up to £9,000 a year for people with long-term physical and mental health conditions, and disabilities) rising with inflation as part of a drive to cut the welfare budget.
The proposal had been set to save about £5bn, as Chancellor Rachel Reeves searches for savings.
She has lost £9.9bn of fiscal headroom (the amount she could increase spending or cut taxes without breaking her fiscal rules) since the October budget due to a poor economy and geopolitical events.
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1:13
Will there be a backlash over benefits?
What’s the government’s case?
The government is expected to make qualifying for PIP more difficult when Ms Kendall reveals her plans on Tuesday.
Sky News’ deputy political editor Sam Coates, on the Politics At Sam And Anne’s podcast, said the Treasury is also expected to abolish the Work Capability Assessment, which determines whether someone is fit or not to work and to then receive disability payments.
The government has described the system as “dysfunctional”, as those “not fit for work” do not receive employment support or further engagement after the assessment, which could lock them out of future work altogether.
Sir Keir Starmer has made cutting the welfare budget a key project, as spending on sickness benefits soared to £65bn last year – a 25% increase since the year before the pandemic – and is expected to rise to £100bn before the next general election in 2029.
The number of people in England and Wales claiming either sickness or disability benefit has gone from 2.8 million to about four million since 2019.
Ms Kendall also revealed in the Commons the number of young people not working because of mental health conditions has risen by more than 25% in the last year, with the number considered “economically inactive” now reaching 270,000.
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0:45
‘1,000 people every day signing on to PIP benefits’
Unhappy Labour MPs
Ms Kendall had been expected to announce welfare cut plans last week.
But due to the scale of the backlash, the government took the unusual step of asking all 404 Labour MPs to attend “welfare roundtables” in Downing Street last week.
Sky News’ political correspondent Amanda Akasssaid Ms Kendall’s Commons appearance offered no real answers to the “serious concerns” raised by MPs, though social security minister Stephen Timms insisted they would “welcome” many of the changes when they are announced.
Treasury minister Emma Reynolds earlier played down the level of discontent over plans to freeze PIP, telling Sky News the roundtables were nothing more than “everyday business”.
She pointed out Labour created the welfare state in 1945, but said it needs to be “more sustainable”.
A “significant number” of countries will provide troops to a Ukraine peacekeeping force, Sir Keir Starmer’s spokesman said.
On Saturday, leaders from 26 Western countries – plus two EU leaders and NATO’s secretary general – gathered for a virtual call of the “coalition of the willing”, hosted by Sir Keir after Volodymyr Zelenskyy accepted a 30-day interim ceasefire agreement.
The prime minister said military chiefs would meet this Thursday to discuss the next “operational phase” in protecting Ukraine as part of a peacekeeping force – if a deal can be agreed with Russia.
Speaking on Monday, Sir Keir’s spokesman said they now expect “more than 30” countries to be involved in the coalition – but did not reveal which other countries had joined since Saturday.
He added: “The contribution capabilities will vary, but this will be a significant force, with a significant number of countries providing troops and a larger group contributing in other ways.”
The spokesman did not say which countries agreed to be part of a peacekeeping force, which Sir Keir and French leader Emmanuel Macron have confirmed the UK and France will be part of.
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3:29
What could a peacekeeping force actually do?
Could troops end up fighting?
Russia has repeatedly said it would not accept soldiers from NATO countries being stationed in Ukraine.
Asked if British troops fired on by Russia in Ukraine would be allowed to fire back, the spokesman said: “It’s worth remembering that Russia didn’t ask Ukraine when it deployed troops.
“We’ve got operational planning meetings that they are going through.”
The spokesman also said he did not know if the US – notably absent from the coalition – will be joining the military chiefs’ meeting on Thursday, but said the UK is having “regular discussions with our American counterparts”.
Both the UK and France are pushing for the US to provide security guarantees to prevent Russia from reneging on any peace deal with Ukraine.
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2:28
Which nations will join peacekeeping efforts?
Trump and Putin to hold talks
Last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin said he supports the truce brokered by the US in Saudi Arabia, but “lots of questions” remain over the proposals.
Donald Trump said on Sunday night he will speak to Mr Putin on Tuesday about ending the war and negotiators have already discussed “dividing up certain assets”, including land and power plants.
He said a “lot of work” had been done over the weekend on a peace deal.
The leaders involved in Saturday’s call were from: Australia, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Spain, Sweden, Turkey, Ukraine, and the UK.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and EU Council President Antonio Costa also joined.