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There is less than one month left in the 2024-25 NHL season but much remains to be determined:

  • Which teams will secure spots in the 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs?

  • Which team is under the most pressure in the final stretch?

  • Who will earn the Hart Trophy as league MVP?

  • And which two clubs will be squaring off in the Stanley Cup Final?

Read on as our ESPN hockey family debates those key questions.


Which team currently outside of the playoffs makes it?

Ryan S. Clark, NHL reporter: Let’s go with the St. Louis Blues. Figuring out a defensive identity has been an issue the past few years. That’s why they hired Jim Montgomery, and that led to improvement. Since they hired Montgomery in late November, the Blues are just outside the top 10 in fewest goals allowed, goals allowed per game and shots allowed per game. They have been one of the NHL’s more consistent defensive teams in that time, and have won seven of their most recent 10 games.

Victoria Matiash, NHL analyst: Look out for the Utah Hockey Club. Riding a 9-4-2 record since Feb. 4, Utah hasn’t lost two straight in regulation since Jan. 26. Outside of the crease — Connor Ingram is out indefinitely after entering the NHL’s player assistance program — this is one of the healthiest teams in the NHL.

Clayton Keller is scoring, as usual. The second line duo of Dylan Guenther and Barrett Hayton is contributing. Utah’s third line — Jack McBain, Lawson Crouse, Josh Doan — is proving tough to play against. Sean Durzi‘s long-awaited return bolsters the blue line in tangible fashion. If goaltender Karel Vejmelka can perform to near-optimal ability, this club has the wherewithal to sneak into that second wild-card spot in the West.

Arda Öcal, NHL broadcaster: Give me the Columbus Blue Jackets. They were in the second wild-card spot in the East, but after losing to the New York Rangers on Saturday, those two teams swapped places.

The East is a gauntlet and won’t be decided until the last game. According to Stathletes, Columbus has the 10th-easiest schedule the rest of the way and fourth easiest in the East. The Jackets have a terrific 20-8-4 record at home, and play nine of their remaining games at Nationwide Arena. Plus a playoff berth would cap off an incredibly emotional season.

Kristen Shilton, NHL reporter: Let’s go with the Montreal Canadiens. There’s such spirit to that team, and the players radiate belief in themselves. It has been apparent in how the Canadiens are hitting a stride at this critical juncture. Cole Caufield and Patrik Laine have been especially strong leading the way on offense, and it has been encouraging to see the depth Montreal has exhibited.

GM Kent Hughes didn’t make adjustments at the trade deadline. Clearly he too had faith in Montreal to be a playoff team without making additions. The Canadiens have a strong power play — Laine is the point man there, too — and their goaltending has improved. If Montreal can navigate a heavier schedule down the stretch — including two more meetings with the Florida Panthers — they can punch a postseason ticket.

Greg Wyshynski, NHL reporter: I predicted the Utah Hockey Club would make the playoffs before the season and I’ll stick to that, because we’re finally seeing what this team was supposed to look like. The Hockey Club is 6-3-2 since defenseman Sean Durzi returned to the lineup from injury. They missed him and John Marino for a majority of the season. Their returns have reset the Utah blue line, and the team’s even-strength defense has been better for it: 1.50 goals against per game in its past 10 games, second only to the Winnipeg Jets and Carolina Hurricanes.

Utah is top 10 offensively at 5-on-5 in that stretch — but if it’s going to make the cut, it needs more from young star Logan Cooley, whose goal on March 16 ended a six-game scoreless streak. Utah will also have to ride Karel Vejmelka down the stretch, with the hopes that he continues his brilliant bounce-back season … and that 25-year-old rookie Jaxson Stauber can produce the spot starts needed with Ingram in the player assistance program.


Which team is under the most pressure in the final month?

Clark: It’s the Vancouver Canucks. The Canucks’ journey to the second round last season raised questions. Namely, was this just one strong season, or could it be the start of something more substantial?

Reaching the playoffs for a consecutive season would at least establish that the Canucks can be a consistent postseason participant, which hasn’t been the case in more than a decade. But missing the playoffs would only amplify the concerns about what happens going forward.

Matiash: The Edmonton Oilers need to get their collective act together before the postseason, or it’s going to be a short ride against whomever they face (the Los Angeles Kings, probably) in the first round. And that’s not going to cut it with the Edmonton faithful, never mind stars Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl.

While Draisaitl and McDavid have a combined 46 points since Jan. 30, the rest of the Oilers’ forward corps has a total of 48. Everyone else needs to figure out how to effectively pitch in, and soon. Meanwhile, the Oilers have allowed a fifth-worst 3.41 goals-against per game over that same stretch, partly due to Stuart Skinner‘s sub-mediocre play. Riding a 7-9-1 record since the end of January, Kris Knoblauch’s squad needs to fix all that ails it in a hurry.

Öcal: If the Rangers fail to make the postseason, after making the conference finals two out of the past three years, you have to wonder what kind of changes we will see in Manhattan over the summer. It has been a tumultuous season for the Blueshirts already, with so many things — memos to 31 other teams, captain trades, Ilya Sorokin scoring a goalie goal before Igor Shesterkin — for fans to point to as reasons why the club took a step backward.

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Braden Schneider’s OT beauty wins it for Rangers

Braden Schneider dangles through and scores a pretty backhand goal to lift the Rangers.

Shilton: The Toronto Maple Leafs have spiraled lately, and need to prove it’s just a temporary glitch. The Leafs were riding high going into the 4 Nations Face-Off break but have stumbled badly against good teams since, with losses against the Vegas Golden Knights, Colorado Avalanche, Florida Panthers and Ottawa Senators.

Toronto’s offense has stalled, the power play is sputtering and their goaltending — a strength all season — appears headed toward average (at best). Every team goes through rough patches, but this is a particularly poorly timed span of poor play by the Leafs. If it’s nothing to worry about, they’d better start stringing some victories together before the postseason hits.

Wyshynski: The Detroit Red Wings. Teams fire coaches for a variety of reasons. For example, the Blues fired Drew Bannister because they’re the NHL embodiment of the “guy looking at the other girl” meme when it came to Jim Montgomery’s sudden availability. The Red Wings, meanwhile, fired Derek Lalonde and hired Todd McLellan for one explicit reason: to make the playoffs for the first time since 2016, ending the longest playoff drought in this Original Six franchise’s history and offering a scintilla of credibility to GM Steve Yzerman’s vision for their revival, a.k.a. “The Yzerplan.”

But they’ve remained a wildly inconsistent team under McLellan, who briefly managed to turn their season around before a disastrous stretch in which the Wings won twice in 10 games around the 4 Nations tournament. There’s still a chance that Cam Talbot and Petr Mrazek could drag their anemic offense to the playoffs. But there’s a greater chance they miss again, leading to yet another offseason with more questions than answers


Name your Stanley Cup Finalists with one month left.

Clark: Dallas Stars vs. Carolina Hurricanes. Deep down in all of us lies pettiness and a Hurricanes-Stars Cup Final with Mikko Rantanen at the right wing of it all, providing a level of drama that just can’t be manufactured.

Matiash: Winnipeg Jets vs. Florida Panthers. I’ll take the league’s stingiest defense and third-best offense, buttressed by the game’s greatest netminder, against a Florida squad that appears even more dangerous than last year’s Cup winners following the key acquisitions of Brad Marchand and Seth Jones. Why overthink it?

Öcal: Colorado Avalanche vs. Tampa Bay Lightning. A 2022 rematch isn’t out of the realm of possibility. Both teams leveled up in key areas at the trade deadline. The Bolts picked up Yanni Gourde and Oliver Bjorkstrand and now the top nine is stacked. They still have one of the best goalies in the league in Andrei Vasilevskiy. Meanwhile, Colorado added Brock Nelson, Charlie Coyle, Erik Johnson, Ryan Lindgren and Jimmy Vesey. I like the needs the Avs addressed before the deadline, and they look legit.

Shilton: Dallas Stars vs. Washington Capitals. Before the season began, there was a zero percent chance I would have suggested Washington was in position to reach the 2025 Stanley Cup Final. The Capitals are just having a special season, and those are rare. All things being equal, Washington should be able to translate its regular-season success into a long playoff run.

As for Dallas — it’s just time. The Stars have been circling a Final date for too long not to get there. Mikko Rantanen is on board. Miro Heiskanen will be back. Dallas should be formidable in every respect. It’s their moment to shine.

Wyshynski: Dallas Stars vs. Florida Panthers. The Stars were my Stanley Cup pick before the season. Assuming it’s all-systems-go for their wounded players — Heiskanen, especially — I’m still on them to break through after consecutive trips to the conference finals. Give me Jake Oettinger, Roope Hintz and Wyatt Johnston in any series; most importantly, give me Rantanen with something to prove on a stage he has owned for the past several postseasons.

Originally, I had them playing the New Jersey Devils, but that’s not happening without Jack Hughes. So give me the Panthers’ third straight trip to the Stanley Cup Final. Their core is built for playoff glory. They have Playoff Bob. GM Bill Zito has done a nice job addressing depth concerns. And adding Brad Marchand to a team that already has Matthew Tkachuk and Sam Bennett is, ahem, a tactical advantage no other team can boast. Bring your earplugs.


Who’s your pick for Hart Trophy right now?

Clark: Connor Hellebuyck. It has been exactly a decade since Carey Price was the last goaltender to win the Hart. Price was beyond crucial to his team’s success, while also leading the NHL in wins, goal-against average, save percentage and goals-saved above expected average. He was also in the top five in minutes played and saves.

Hellebuyck is atop the league in wins, GAA, save percentage, GSAA and shutouts, and has been going back and forth with Andrei Vasilevskiy for the lead in minutes played. There’s no denying what forwards such as Leon Draisaitl, Nikita Kucherov and Nathan MacKinnon have done. It’s just that what Hellebuyck stands to achieve is on par with what we expect out of a goalie being Hart-worthy.

Matiash: Leon Draisaitl. Stubbornly siding with Nikita Kucherov — still underrated as a game-changing asset to his team — for a good part of this season, I can’t help but now shift to the only projected 50-plus-goal scorer of 2024-25.

According to Evolving Hockey, Draisaitl boasts a league-leading 24.6 goals above replacement (GAR), 4.0 wins above replacement (WAR), and a whopping 7.6 standings points above replacement (SPAR). If that doesn’t define “most valuable to their team,” I’m not sure what does.

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Draisaitl’s 2nd goal of the game wins it for Oilers in OT

Leon Draisaitl scores his second goal of the game in overtime to help the Oilers defeat the Islanders.

Öcal: Definitely Leon Draisaitl. He and MacKinnon will be neck and neck on points all the way to the last games of the regular season, but Draisaitl is running away with the Rocket Richard (49), currently 13 goals above William Nylander in second (36). Draisaitl also leads the league in even-strength goals (34). Plus, he’s earning his Hart Trophy votes on a team that has Connor McDavid.

I’m picking Leon to win his second Hart in five years. Leon has been so good this season he could have helped Kino Loy swim away from Narkina 5.

Shilton: Nathan MacKinnon. Yes, we’re talking back-to-back Hart Trophy wins. The last player to do it? Alex Ovechkin, in 2009. It doesn’t happen often.

But MacKinnon has undeniably dragged Colorado back into the fight this season. Remember when we were counting out the Avalanche? MacKinnon never relented. Colorado lost Rantanen, and as devastating as that was, it almost seemed to light a larger fire under MacKinnon to keep Colorado in contending position. Now, if Hellebuyck takes it from MacKinnon that’s incredibly well-deserved, too. But for me, it’s MacKinnon, for how he has been the Avs’ most valuable player practically every single game.

Wyshynski: Connor Hellebuyck. Let’s not overcomplicate things. As of Monday, Hellebuyck had 39 of the Jets’ 47 wins. He led the league in save percentage, and his goals-against average had dipped below two goals per game — while that’s considered a team stat rather than an individual one, it’s fairly obvious who’s responsible for it when backup Eric Comrie‘s GAA is half a goal higher.

There are certainly other worthy candidates: Draisaitl has an incredible case this season, and Zach Werenski deserves a shoutout for what he has done for Columbus. (And a louder shoutout to Quinn Hughes, who might have been the choice were it not for his injury.) But the Jets have been one of the NHL’s best teams this season, and everything tracks to Hellebuyck as the foundation for that.

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Flyers honor late Parent with tribute before game

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Flyers honor late Parent with tribute before game

PHILADELPHIA — The Flyers celebrate the star of each victory this season by presenting him with a replica Bernie Parent goalie mask. The white mask with the Flyers logo on each side of the temples looks much like the one Parent wore as a cover boy in the 1970s on Time magazine when the Flyers truly meant something — beyond the Philly sports scene, and even the NHL — and he served as the cloaked face of the Broad Street Bullies.

The Flyers pulled out the mask Saturday night before their game against New Jersey and let it rest on top of one of the goalie nets. One more final tribute for Parent, the Hall of Fame goalie who was honored by the franchise this weekend two months after he died at age 80.

“Forever our No. 1,” said Lou Nolan, the Flyers’ public address announcer since 1972.

With that, the spotlight shone on Parent’s retired No. 1 banner that hangs in the rafters, just a row ahead of the two oversized Stanley Cup championship banners — the only ones in franchise history — that catch the eye in Flyers orange and might not even exist at all if not for the affable goalie from Montreal.

Parent anchored the net for the Flyers when the Bullies reigned under owner Ed Snider as one of the marquee teams in sports. Parent won Stanley Cup, Conn Smythe and Vezina trophies in back-to-back seasons when the Flyers captured the Stanley Cup in ’74 and ’75, the first NHL expansion team to win the championship.

Ahead of the game Saturday against New Jersey, a photo of a smiling Parent flashing his two Stanley Cup rings on the outside arena videoboard loomed large over the 9-foot bronze statue for Snider, the Flyers’ founder who died in 2016.

“‘We’ve got two Stanley Cups because of Bernie,” Hall of Famer Bobby Clarke said at a celebration of life event in front of thousands of Flyers fans.

Flyers fans poured out this weekend to remember Parent over a two-day celebration that started with Friday’s service and extended into Saturday’s tribute game. Flyers fans in droves wore No. 1 Parent jerseys during the game — and what would the goalie think even as, yes, his beloved Flyers scored three goals in 26 seconds against beleaguered Jake Allen — and they roared for every highlight from Parent’s glory years.

The loudest cheers were saved for the Stanley Cup highlights.

The Flyers beat the Boston Bruins in six games to win the Stanley Cup in 1974 and beat Buffalo in 1975. Parent had shutouts in the clinchers each season.

On the flight home from Buffalo, the Flyers plopped the Stanley Cup in the middle of the aisle. For close to 90 minutes, they couldn’t take their eyes off hockey’s ultimate prize.

“We were able to just sit back, look at the Stanley Cup and just savor it,” Parent said in 2010. “It was just a special time.”

With Parent the unstoppable force in net, “Only the Lord saves more than Bernie Parent,” became a popular bumper sticker in Philadelphia that would stick on him as a lifelong slogan — and popular autograph inscription request — through retirement and his many years as a team ambassador.

Parent also served as an ambassador for the Ed Snider Youth Hockey and Education program; a youth hockey program created in 2005 for under-resourced youth in Philadelphia.

The program announced Saturday it would honor Parent’s legacy with the Bernie Parent Goalie Development Program, aimed to prepare young people for success both on and off the ice. Flyers Charities presented a $50,000 donation which was matched by Snider’s children.

Parent, team captain Bobby Clarke and Dave “The Hammer” Schultz all became stars for the Flyers under Snider in an era when the team was known for its rugged style of play that earned the Bullies nickname. They embraced their moniker as the roughest team in the NHL and pounded their way into the hearts of Flyers fans. More than 2 million fans packed Philadelphia streets for each of their championship parades.

Most of the living members from the Cup teams attended the game Saturday and Clarke choked back tears at the memorial as he listed other Flyers from the Stanley Cup teams who have since died. Barry Ashbee. Ed Van Impe. Bill Flett. Ross Lonsberry. Rick MacLeish

“And now, God bless Bernie, because he’s going to join them,” Clarke said. “And the rest of us, until we go join them, we will talk together forever.”

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Blackwood makes 35 saves as Avs win 8th straight

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Blackwood makes 35 saves as Avs win 8th straight

NASHVILLE, Tenn. — Mackenzie Blackwood made 35 saves to lead the Colorado Avalanche to a 3-0 victory over the Nashville Predators on Saturday night.

Brent Burns scored early, and Nathan MacKinnon and Jack Drury added empty-net goals for the Avalanche. Colorado has won eight straight, their longest winning streak since taking nine in a row March 4-24, 2024.

The Avalanche hold the best record in the league and are five points up from the second-place Carolina Hurricanes.

Juuse Saros made 23 saves for the Predators, losers of seven of eight. Saturday was the first game back in North America for the Predators after playing a pair of Global Series games last week against the Pittsburgh Penguins in Stockholm, Sweden. The Predators have been shutout in consecutive games.

The shutout was the first of the season and 15th of Blackwood’s career.

Burns scored the game’s first goal just 15 seconds after the opening faceoff.

After a battle in the right corner, the puck came to Burns above the right circle, where he beat Saros with a wrist shot on the first shot of the game.

The game remained 1-0 until MacKinnon scored an empty-net goal was 1:35 remaining in the third with Saros pulled for an extra attacker. Drury added another empty-netter with 51 seconds left.

MacKinnon has three goals in his last two games.

Colorado defenseman Cale Makar failed to record a point in a road game for the first time this season.

The Predators outshot the Avalanche 16-6 in the first, but couldn’t get one past Blackwood.

Saturday was just the fifth time this season that an opponent has outshot the Avalanche. Colorado is 5-0-0 in those games.

Blackwood stopped Nashville’s Michael McCarron with 5:47 remaining in the third on a backhand from the low slot to keep the Predators off the board.

Predators captain Roman Josi returned to the lineup Saturday after missing 12 games with an upper-body injury.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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Projecting Tuesday’s CFP top 12: No surprises, but Rivalry Week looms

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Projecting Tuesday's CFP top 12: No surprises, but Rivalry Week looms

Surprise — there were no surprises.

After a ho-hum Week 13 that featured only two games between two ranked opponents, there wasn’t any movement in this week’s top 12 projection, but there are two questions looming over the committee as it debates its fourth of six rankings to be revealed on Tuesday night (7 p.m. ET/ESPN):

Here’s a prediction of what the group might do in the latest ranking on Tuesday night:

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Ranking | Bracket

Projecting the top 12

1. Ohio State Buckeyes (11-0)

Why they could be here: A dominant win against a now sub.-500 Rutgers team isn’t going to change the way the committee views Ohio State — as the most complete team in the country. Ohio State entered Saturday leading the country in total efficiency and ranked in the top three in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Wins against No. 17 Texas and No. 21 Illinois (which lost to Wisconsin on Saturday) are its only ones against CFP top 25 opponents, but a road win against Washington is also respected in the room. The committee has specifically noted the elite play of receivers Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate — and even with both sidelined with injuries on Saturday, Ohio State was able to dismantle the Rutgers defense.

Why they could be lower: Nothing happened on Saturday that would prompt the committee to rethink the Buckeyes’ place at the top, but Ohio State had the worst schedule strength (No. 48) of the top three teams entering Saturday.

Need to know: Although Ohio State and Indiana remain the most likely matchup in the Big Ten championship game — each controls its own destiny — neither clinched a spot in Week 13. Ohio State can clinch a spot with a win against Michigan OR losses by both Indiana and Oregon. The Buckeyes and Hoosiers are joined by Oregon and Michigan with chances to reach the Big Ten title game, but the latter two teams both need help to clinch.

Remaining game: Nov. 29 at Michigan. The Buckeyes are trying to avoid a fifth straight loss to their rivals.


2. Indiana Hoosiers (11-0)

Why they could be here: With the Hoosiers on a bye — and both Ohio State and Texas A&M playing unranked, inferior opponents — it’s unlikely there’s any movement at the top again. Indiana has earned the committee’s respect with its double-digit win at Oregon and its top-five rankings for both offensive and defensive efficiency. The group has taken note of Indiana’s consistent dominance, with its most glaring struggles coming on the road at Iowa and Penn State, both notoriously difficult places to win. Indiana entered Week 13 ranked No. 3 in the country in ESPN’s game control metric.

Why they could be higher: Given how the committee has voted and deliberated through three rankings, Indiana likely needs Ohio State to lose to Michigan — or IU needs to beat the Buckeyes in the Big Ten title game — to earn the top spot.

Need to know: Indiana can clinch a spot in the Big Ten championship game with a win next week or an Ohio State loss.

Remaining game: Nov. 28 at Purdue. The Hoosiers had a bye to prepare for their regular-season finale against their in-state rivals.


3. Texas A&M Aggies (11-0)

Why they could be here: It’s not because they manhandled Samford, an overmatched 1-11 FCS team. It’s mostly because the Aggies are clinging to a 41-40 win at No. 9 Notre Dame, the highlight of their undefeated résumé. The Nov. 8 win at Mizzou, which came when Tigers starting quarterback Beau Pribula was sidelined with an injury, is a borderline top-25 win that was devalued somewhat on Saturday by Mizzou’s loss to Oklahoma. Texas A&M still leads the nation in ESPN’s strength of record metric, which gives the average top 25 team just a 2.2% chance of achieving the same undefeated record against the same opponents.

Why they could be lower: It’s unlikely anything will change in the third ranking, but if Texas A&M loses to Texas — and doesn’t win the SEC — it will be interesting to see where the Aggies fall on Selection Day. They didn’t face Alabama or Georgia during the regular season, playing just the 12th-most difficult schedule in the SEC, according to ESPN Analytics — ahead of only Vandy, Tennessee, Ole Miss and Missouri. The Aggies rank just outside the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.

Need to know: The Aggies will clinch a spot in the SEC championship game with a win against Texas OR if both Alabama and Ole Miss lose.

Remaining game: Nov. 28 at Texas. The Longhorns will have home-field advantage on Friday night after Thanksgiving.


4. Georgia Bulldogs (10-1)

Why they could be here: The Bulldogs are here because of their 35-10 drubbing of Texas on Nov. 15 — not because they overpowered Charlotte 35-3 on Saturday. Georgia has one loss and Alabama has two, so the Bulldogs’ head-to-head loss to the Tide on Sept. 27 was overcome in the third ranking. Wins against Tennessee, Ole Miss and Texas give Georgia one of the best résumés in the country. Georgia entered Saturday ranked No. 4 in ESPN’s strength of record metric and No. 12 in strength of schedule — ahead of Ohio State, Indiana and Texas A&M.

Why they could be higher: It would be surprising to see the committee move Georgia this week — especially since everyone played weaker opponents and Texas Tech was on a bye — but if Texas A&M loses to Texas this Friday, it will open the door for debate between the Bulldogs and Aggies. The committee would compare Texas as a common opponent, and Georgia beat the Longhorns soundly. Georgia also has more wins against ranked opponents (a win against Georgia Tech could add another) and a slightly tougher schedule. Some committee members could also think Georgia would have a slightly better loss (Alabama) than A&M (Texas).

Need to know: According to ESPN Research, Georgia can clinch a spot in the SEC title game in Week 14 with an Alabama loss OR a Texas A&M loss.

Remaining game: Nov. 28 vs. Georgia Tech. The one-loss Yellow Jackets pushed their in-state rival to eight overtimes last year.


5. Texas Tech Red Raiders (10-1)

Why they could be here: The Red Raiders had a bye week and are “highly regarded by this committee,” chair Hunter Yurachek said following the third ranking. Dominant wins at Utah and against BYU have elevated Texas Tech in the ranking, and the committee has also been impressed with the Red Raiders’ defense, particularly up front. Texas Tech’s lone loss was Oct. 18 at Arizona State, which popped into the latest ranking at No. 25, helping to ease some of that stumble.

Why they could be lower: With both Texas Tech and Ole Miss off on Saturday, it’s unlikely their positions will change in the fourth ranking.

Need to know: Texas Tech is within arm’s reach of a first-round bye, which makes it highly unlikely the Red Raiders would fall out of the playoff even if they finished as the Big 12 runner-up.

Remaining game: Nov. 29 at West Virginia. It’s on the road at a notoriously difficult venue, but the Red Raiders have a 91.6% chance to win, according to ESPN Analytics.


6. Ole Miss Rebels (10-1)

Why they could be here: The committee has had Texas Tech ahead of Ole Miss in part because of a better résumé, though the Red Raiders have two top-25 wins (BYU and Utah), and Ole Miss also has two (Oklahoma and Tulane). The Rebels’ win against the Sooners looks better than Oregon’s win against USC, as the Sooners are a top-10 team and were able to hold off Missouri on Saturday to stay that way.

Why they could be lower: The committee members could consider bumping Oregon ahead of Ole Miss, as they’ve been waiting for a performance like Saturday’s against another CFP contender and the Ducks delivered against USC. Oregon and Ole Miss are extremely close in both strength of record and strength of schedule, and they both lost to a top-four team. Ole Miss also has a win against Tulane, which is now the leader for a Group of 5 playoff spot, and the win against the Sooners was on the road, whereas Oregon beat USC at home. With everything else so comparable, those are some small details that might continue to lean in the Rebels’ favor — if maybe for only another week.

Need to know: The Rebels will clinch a spot in the SEC championship game if they win the Egg Bowl AND both Texas A&M and Alabama lose.

Remaining game: Nov. 28 at Mississippi State. The Rebels don’t have much if any margin for error against their in-state rivals. A second loss would put Ole Miss into a debate it might not win, given its schedule strength ranks No. 15 in the SEC.


7. Oregon Ducks (10-1)

Why they could be here: The Ducks added a much-needed statement win to their résumé on Saturday against USC, solidifying their spot as the Big Ten’s third playoff team. Assuming three-loss USC is still ranked on Tuesday night, though, Saturday’s victory is the Ducks’ only win against a CFP top 25 team. Big Ten opponents Northwestern, Iowa and Minnesota are all above .500, which the committee values, but Ole Miss has a slightly better résumé with its wins against Oklahoma and Tulane.

Why they could be higher: The Ducks have won five straight since their 30-20 home loss against Indiana on Oct. 11, but USC was the kind of strong performance against a top-15 team the committee has been waiting for. And they did it without several key injured players on both sides of the ball.

Need to know: With USC dropping out of the playoff picture, the biggest threat to Oregon is gone, but Michigan can still disrupt the picture in the final week. According to ESPN Research, if Michigan beats rival Ohio State AND Indiana OR Oregon loses, the Wolverines will clinch a spot in the conference championship game. Which team they face depends on how those other results unfold, but they could play any of those three — Indiana, Oregon or Ohio State.

Remaining game: Nov. 29 at Washington. This isn’t an easy road trip, as the bowl-bound Huskies have had a respectable season in the second year under coach Jedd Fisch.


8. Oklahoma Sooners (9-2)

Why they could be here: A win against what was the committee’s No. 22 team in Missouri should further solidify Oklahoma’s foothold in the No. 8 spot because the defense was dominant on a day the offense did just enough. That was Oklahoma’s third straight win against a CFP top 25 opponent, including back-to-back road wins against Tennessee and Alabama. The Sooners also earned a ranked win on Sept. 6 against Michigan, which continues to be valuable after the Wolverines kept their playoff hopes alive on Saturday with a win against Maryland.

Why they could be lower: It’s clear the committee likes Notre Dame, and the Irish hammered Syracuse 70-7. Oklahoma’s defense is one of the best in the country, but the Sooners’ offense is No. 43 in efficiency — well below No. 6 Notre Dame. It would be difficult to justify flipping the Irish above the Sooners, though, given that Syracuse is now 3-8 and OU beat a ranked SEC team on top of having a stronger overall résumé.

Need to know: If the playoff were today, the debate between Oklahoma and Notre Dame would be settled on the field — in Norman, where the Sooners would have home-field advantage in the first round. The No. 8 spot is the last team in the ranking to host a first-round game.

Remaining game: Nov. 29 vs. LSU. The Sooners need to avoid what would be a devastating upset to the four-loss Tigers.


9. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9-2)

Why they could be here: The Irish have won nine straight since an 0-2 start, and the committee has considered Notre Dame’s narrow losses to Texas A&M and Miami important factors in its deliberations. One reason Notre Dame was ranked ahead of two-loss Alabama in the third ranking was because the Irish lost by a combined four points to two ranked opponents. Alabama’s season-opening loss to Florida State and its continued inability to run the ball have held it back. The Irish racked up some style points in Saturday’s drubbing of Syracuse, but the committee has already rewarded Notre Dame for its running game and staunch defense. On Saturday, the Irish scored three touchdowns (two on defense and one on special teams) before the offense even took the field. Notre Dame’s best wins are against USC, Navy and Pitt.

Why they could be higher: If the committee gives Notre Dame another boost, it would be because the Irish have been more consistently dominant on offense than the Sooners. Oklahoma, though, has played tougher competition than Notre Dame over the past few weeks and has the edge in overall schedule strength and strength of record.

Need to know: Although Notre Dame appears safe — and it would certainly be a shock to see it fall out of the playoff field — there is still a nightmare scenario for the Irish. If Alabama wins the SEC and jumps ahead of Notre Dame, pushing the Irish to the No. 10 spot, they could be in trouble if the Big 12 has two playoff teams. If BYU wins the Big 12, and Texas Tech joins it in the top nine as the Big 12 runner-up — then a team currently in the top 10 has to be excluded. The No. 11 team will get bumped out for the ACC champ and the No. 12 team will get knocked out for the Group of 5 champion.

Remaining game: Nov. 29 at Stanford. The Irish have a 95% chance to win, according to ESPN Analytics.


10. Alabama Crimson Tide (9-2)

Why they could be here: The committee made it clear last week that Alabama’s struggles on the ground have been an issue all season. It was one factor that separated No. 9 Notre Dame from No. 10 Alabama in last Tuesday’s ranking. Alabama’s 259 rushing yards in a lopsided 56-0 win against a 3-9 FCS team in Eastern Illinois aren’t going to sway anyone in the room enough to move the Tide up. Alabama still has one of the best résumés in the country, including a win against No. 4 Georgia during a streak of four straight CFP top 25 wins during the middle of the season. The loss to Oklahoma will keep Alabama behind the Sooners as long as the committee deems them comparable.

Why they could be higher: If Alabama’s résumé wasn’t enough to keep the Tide ahead of Notre Dame last week, it’s unlikely to change this week. Alabama entered Saturday No. 8 in strength of record and No. 2 in strength of schedule, both ahead of Notre Dame.

Need to know: With Tennessee’s win on Saturday, Alabama can now clinch a spot in the SEC title game with a win against Auburn.

Remaining game: Nov. 29 at Auburn. The Iron Bowl is a must-win for the Tide.


11. BYU Cougars (10-1)

Why they could be here: With the win at Cincinnati, BYU passed its toughest remaining test of the regular season and earned another road win against a team that was ranked by the committee, albeit for a fleeting moment. BYU’s Oct. 18 win against Utah will continue to resonate in the room after Utah found a way to beat a pesky K-State team. The head-to-head win against the Utes will also keep BYU ahead of them. BYU’s only loss was on the road against No. 5 Texas Tech, but it was a poor performance that raised some eyebrows in the committee meeting room.

Why they could be lower: It would be hard for the committee to justify moving BYU given the head-to-head against Utah and one fewer loss. And Alabama’s résumé will make it very difficult for the Cougars to move up.

Need to know: If the playoff were today, BYU would be bumped out of the field during the seeding process to make room for the ACC champion, which is still projected to be ranked outside of the committee’s top 12 but is guaranteed a spot as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions.

Remaining game: Nov. 29 vs. UCF. The 5-6 Knights will be playing for bowl eligibility.


12. Utah Utes (9-2)

Why they could be here: After Utah found a way to escape K-State on Saturday, its only losses are to the Big 12’s best teams — Texas Tech and BYU — and the committee considers who a team lost to as part of its deliberations. The Utes’ best wins are against Arizona State and Cincinnati, but they lose the head-to-head tiebreaker to BYU.

Why they could be lower: The committee could reward Miami’s convincing road win at Virginia Tech and bump the Canes up a notch because they played far better defense — albeit against a 3-8 ACC team. Utah allowed 472 rushing yards and 11.2 yards per carry against Kansas State — on its home field. It was Miami’s third straight win by at least 17 points, showing some of the consistency committee members had been looking for. Miami’s season-opening win against Notre Dame is also better than any win Utah has earned to date.

Need to know: If the playoff were today, Utah would be excluded during the seeding process to make room for the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion, which this week we project will be Tulane.

Remaining game: Nov. 28 at Kansas. At 5-6, the Jayhawks will be playing for bowl eligibility.

Bracket

Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:

First-round byes

No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
No. 4 Georgia

First-round games

On campus, Dec. 19 and 20

No. 12 Tulane (American champ) at No. 5 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ)
No. 11 Miami (ACC champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Oregon
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma

Quarterfinal games

At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.

No. 12 Tulane/No. 5 Texas Tech winner vs. No. 4 Georgia
No. 11 Miami/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
No. 10 Alabama/No. 7 Oregon winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Notre Dame/No. 8 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State

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