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The Office for National Statistics (ONS) is making major changes to how it gathers some of the UK’s most important data. These figures shape decisions on wages, benefits, and public spending.

One of the biggest shifts involves how inflation is measured, which is changing on Tuesday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), which tracks the cost of everyday essentials like food, energy, and transport, is being updated with a new system that aims to capture price changes more accurately.

This matters because inflation figures influence the Bank of England’s decisions on interest rates, which in turn affect the cost of borrowing, savings, and even rent.

For workers, inflation also plays a role in wage negotiations. This is because when prices rise, there’s often pressure on employers and the government to increase salaries, pensions, and benefits.

The ONS will continue sending researchers to shops to check prices and speak to retailers, but from this month, a new digital system will speed up how the data is processed.

It’s also testing a new method using real checkout data from supermarkets. Instead of just recording shelf prices, it will track what people actually pay, including discounts from loyalty schemes like Clubcard and Nectar. This should give a more accurate picture of real spending habits, with full rollout expected by 2026.

The change has been brought about over concerns the previous method measured price changes but failed to capture how consumers changed what they buy as a result.

Take the example of butter, which has gone up in price by 18% in the past year. That increase was reflected in the CPI, influencing the overall inflation figure. However, many consumers will have switched to a dairy spread or margarine rather than keep paying for the more expensive butter.

How is inflation data changing?

While this should improve inflation accuracy, tracking individual product prices may become harder. Sky News’ Spending Calculator, which helps users track price changes, will need updates and won’t be refreshed this month.

An ONS spokesperson said: “From next year we will be replacing much of the physical price collection in supermarkets with information from supermarket tills. While we won’t know what each consumer has bought, we will know both the price and quality of items sold in shops up and down the country, marking a step-change in our understanding of inflation and consumer behaviour.”

Data reliability concerns prompt changes

While these changes to the inflation data are intended to better reflect consumer behaviour, other changes are being introduced due to concerns over reliability.

One of the most affected datasets is the Labour Force Survey (LFS), the UK’s largest household study, which measures the state of the labour market and helps shape decisions on interest rates and employment. However, plummeting response rates mean its reliability is now in question.

“I think policymakers just don’t have as much trust or confidence in the LFS, so they have to find other ways to get the clear insights they used to rely on the LFS for,” said Michael McMahon, professor of economics at Oxford and former Bank of England economist.

“The Bank of England has a set of regional agents who will go out and speak to businesses. They’ll speak to local bodies and even in some cases do citizens’ panels. They were doing that before the LFS issue. It’s just they have to rely on these alternatives more, because they can rely less on the LFS.”

The pandemic accelerated these issues when face-to-face LFS interviews were replaced with phone surveys, causing a sharp drop in participation.

Internal ONS emails, revealed by the Financial Times, showed how one key estimate’s sample size had “collapsed to only five individuals” — too small for reliable statistics.

Resolution Foundation analysis shows that HMRC payroll and self-employment data aligned with LFS estimates before 2020 but after the pandemic began to diverge.

To address this, the ONS is developing the Transformed Labour Force Survey (TLFS), using shorter questionnaires and shifting primarily to online responses, with some face-to-face interviews remaining.

Survey issues aren’t just affecting job figures, they’re also complicating GDP estimates.

The Living Costs and Food Survey (LCF), which tracks incomes and spending and is used for GDP estimates, has seen a sharp drop in response rates, with fewer than one in five forms completed as of December 2024. The survey is particularly time-consuming, requiring participants to log spending for two weeks. A new digital tool allowing receipts to be scanned is in development but won’t launch until late 2025.

For policymakers, these delays are frustrating. “It’s certainly a moment of embarrassment: the idea that the chancellor and the governor [of the Bank of England] go to G7 meetings, talk to other advanced economies, and explain why we don’t know how our labour market is doing with any great confidence,” said McMahon.

Flawed migration data

Recent improvements to the way the ONS gathers migration data also highlight significant failings in the recent past.

Long-term migration estimates are a vital part of public debate and key policy decisions.

Before COVID, migration estimates relied on traveller surveys at airports and ports. These surveys frequently underestimated migration levels, as they depended on people’s own predictions about how long they would stay in the UK.

Under this method, net migration was seen to have peaked in December 2022, at 764,000.

Now, the ONS has shifted to using visa records, higher education statistics, and tax data to provide a clearer picture. Under this new method, it has become clear that net migration has been much higher than previously thought, peaking at 906,000 in June 2023.

Overall, the ONS increased its estimate for net migration in 2023 by more than 25%.

However, while these changes are making migration data more reliable, they also highlight how much of the political debate on immigration in recent years has been built on incomplete figures. The transition to administrative data is a step forward, but further refinements will be needed to ensure long-term accuracy.


The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open-source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

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ICG takes off with £200m deal for Exeter and Bournemouth airports

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ICG takes off with £200m deal for Exeter and Bournemouth airports

The London-listed investment group ICG is closing in on a £200m deal to buy three of Britain’s biggest regional airports.

Sky News has learnt that ICG is expected to sign a formal agreement to buy Bournemouth, Exeter and Norwich airports later this month.

The trio of sites collectively serve just over 2 million passengers annually.

ICG is buying the airports from Rigby Group, a privately owned conglomerate which has interests in the hotels, software and technology sectors.

Exeter acted as the hub for Flybe, the regional carrier which collapsed in the aftermath of the pandemic.

The deal will come amid a frenzy of activity involving Britain’s major airports as infrastructure investors seek to exploit a recovery in their valuations.

AviAlliance, which is owned by the Canadian pension fund PSP Investments, agreed to buy the parent company of Aberdeen, Glasgow and Southampton airports for £1.55bn last year.

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London City Airport’s shareholder base has just been shaken up with a deal which saw Australia’s Macquarie take a large stake.

French investor Ardian has increased its investment in Heathrow Airport as the UK’s biggest aviation hub proposes an expansion that will cost tens of billions of pounds.

ICG and Rigby Group declined to comment .

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Tech companies are racing to make their products smaller – and much, much thinner

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Tech companies are racing to make their products smaller - and much, much thinner

Some of the world’s leading tech companies are betting big on very small innovations.

Last week, Samsung released its Galaxy Z Fold 7 which – when open – has a thickness of just 4.2mm, one of the slimmest folding phones ever to hit the market.

And Honor, a spin-off from Chinese smartphone company Huawei, will soon ship its latest foldable – the slimmest in the world. Its new Honor Magic V5 model is only 8.8mm thick when folded, and a mere 4.1mm when open.

Apple is also expected to release a foldable in the second half of next year, according to a note by analysts at JPMorgan published this week.

The race to miniaturise technology is speeding up, the ultimate prize being the next evolution in consumer devices.

Whether it be wearable devices, such as smartglasses, watches, rings or foldables – there is enormous market potential for any manufacturer that can make its products small enough.

Despite being thinner than its predecessor, Honor claims its Magic V5 also offers significant improvements to battery life, processing power, and camera capabilities.

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Hope Cao, a product expert at Honor told Sky News the progress was “due largely to our silicon carbon battery technology”. These batteries are a next-generation breakthrough that offers higher energy density compared to traditional lithium-ion batteries, and are becoming more common in consumer devices.

Pic: Honor
Image:
The Magic V5. Pic: Honor

Honor also told Sky News it had used its own AI model “to precisely test and find the optimum design, which was both the slimmest, as well as, the most durable.”

However, research and development into miniaturisation goes well beyond just folding phones.

A company that’s been at the forefront of developing augmented reality (AR) glasses, Xreal, was one of the first to release a viable pair to the consumer market.

Xreal’s Ralph Jodice told Sky News “one of our biggest engineering challenges is shrinking powerful augmented reality technology into a form factor that looks and feels like everyday sunglasses”.

Xreal’s specs can display images on the lenses like something out of a sci-fi movie – allowing the wearer to connect most USB-C compatible devices such as phones, laptops and handheld consoles to an IMAX-sized screen anywhere they go.

Pic: Xreal
Image:
Pic: Xreal

Experts at The Metaverse Society suggest prices of these wearable devices could be lowered by shifting the burden of computing from the headset to a mobile phone or computer, whose battery and processor would power the glasses via a cable.

However, despite the daunting challenge, companies are doubling down on research and making leaps in the area.

Social media giant Meta is also vying for dominance in the miniature market.

Ray-Ban Meta AI glasses are shown off at the annual British Educational Training and Technology conference. Pic: PA
Image:
Ray-Ban Meta AI glasses are shown off at the annual British Educational Training and Technology conference. Pic: PA

Meta’s Ray-Ban sunglasses (to which they recently added an Oakley range), cannot project images on the lenses like the pair from Xreal – instead they can capture photos, footage and sound. When connected to a smartphone they can even use your phone’s 5G connection to ask Meta’s AI what you’re looking at, and ask how to save a particular type of houseplant for example.

Gareth Sutcliffe, a tech and media analyst at Enders Analysis, tells Sky News wearables “are a green field opportunity for Meta and Google” to capture a market of “hundreds of millions of users if these devices sell at similar rates to mobile phones”.

Li-Chen Miller, Meta’s vice president of product and wearables, recently said: “You’d be hard-pressed to find a more interesting engineering problem in the company than the one that’s at the intersection of these two dynamics, building glasses [with onboard technology] that people are comfortable wearing on their faces for extended periods of time … and willing to wear them around friends, family, and others nearby.”

Mr Sutcliffe points out that “Meta’s R&D spend on wearables looks extraordinary in the context of limited sales now, but should the category explode in popularity, it will be seen as a great strategic bet.”

Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg’s long-term aim is to combine the abilities of both Xreal and the Ray-Bans into a fully functioning pair of smartglasses, capable of capturing content, as well as display graphics onscreen.

However, despite recently showcasing a prototype model, the company was at pains to point out that it was still far from ready for the consumer market.

This race is a marathon not a sprint – or as Sutcliffe tells Sky News “a decade-long slog” – but 17 years after the release of the first iPhone, people are beginning to wonder what will replace it – and it could well be a pair of glasses.

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US trade war: The state of play as Trump signs order imposing new tariffs – but there are more delays

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US trade war: The state of play as Trump signs order imposing new tariffs - but there are more delays

Donald Trump’s trade war has been difficult to keep up with, to put it mildly.

For all the threats and bluster of the US election campaign last year to the on-off implementation of trade tariffs – and more threats – since he returned to the White House in January, the president‘s protectionist agenda has been haphazard.

Trading partners, export-focused firms, customs agents and even his own trade team have had a lot on their plates as deadlines were imposed – and then retracted – and the tariff numbers tinkered.

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While the UK was the first country to secure a truce of sorts, described as a “deal”, the vast majority of nations have failed to secure any agreement.

Deal or no deal, no country is on better trading terms with the United States than it was when Trump 2.0 began.

Here, we examine what nations and blocs are on the hook for, and the potential consequences, as Mr Trump’s suspended “reciprocal” tariffs prepare to take effect. That will now not happen until 7 August.

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What does the UK-US trade deal involve?

Why was 1 August such an important date?

To understand the present day, we must first wind the clock back to early April.

Then, Mr Trump proudly showed off a board in the White House Rose Garden containing a list of countries and the tariffs they would immediately face in retaliation for the rates they impose on US-made goods. He called it “liberation day”.

The tariff numbers were big and financial markets took fright.

Just days later, the president announced a 90-day pause in those rates for all countries except China, to allow for negotiations.

The initial deadline of 9 July was then extended again to 1 August. Late on 31 July, Mr Trump signed the executive order but said that the tariff rates would not kick in for seven additional days to allow for the orders to be fully communicated.

Since April, only eight countries or trading blocs have agreed “deals” to limit the reciprocal tariffs and – in some cases – sectoral tariffs already in place.

Who has agreed a deal over the past 120 days?

The UK, Japan, Indonesia, the European Union and South Korea are among the eight to be facing lower rates than had been threatened back in April.

China has not really done a deal but it is no longer facing punitive tariffs above 100%.

Its decision to retaliate against US levies prompted a truce level to be agreed between the pair, pending further talks.

There’s a backlash against the EU over its deal, with many national leaders accusing the European Commission of giving in too easily. A broad 15% rate is to apply, down from the threatened 30%, while the bloc has also committed to US investment and to pay for US-produced natural gas.

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Millions of EU jobs were in firing line

Where does the UK stand?

We’ve already mentioned that the UK was the first to avert the worst of what was threatened.

While a 10% baseline tariff covers the vast majority of the goods we send to the US, aerospace products are exempt.

Our steel sector has not been subjected to Trump’s 50% tariffs and has been facing down a 25% rate. The government announced on Thursday that it would not apply under the terms of a quota system.

UK car exports were on a 25% rate until the end of June when the deal agreed in May took that down to 10% under a similar quota arrangement that exempts the first 100,000 cars from a levy.

Who has not done a deal?

Canada is among the big names facing a 35% baseline tariff rate. That is up from 25% and covers all goods not subject to a US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement that involves rules of origin.

America is its biggest export market and it has long been in Trump’s sights.

Mexico, another country deeply ingrained in the US supply chain, is facing a 30% rate but has been given an extra 90 days to secure a deal.

Brazil is facing a 50% rate. For India, it’s 25%.

What are the consequences?

This is where it all gets a bit woolly – for good reasons.

The trade war is unprecedented in scale, given the global nature of modern business.

It takes time for official statistics to catch up, especially when tariff rates chop and change so much.

Any duties on exports to the United States are a threat to company sales and economic growth alike – in both the US and the rest of the world. Many carmakers, for example, have refused to offer guidance on their outlooks for revenue and profits.

Apple warned on Thursday night that US tariffs would add $1.1bn of costs in the three months to September alone.

Barriers to business are never good but the International Monetary Fund earlier this week raised its forecast for global economic growth this year from 2.8% to 3%.

Some of that increase can be explained by the deals involving major economies, including Japan, the EU and UK.

US growth figures have been skewed by the rush to beat import tariffs.

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Trump signs executive order for reciprocal tariffs
Aston Martin outlines plan to ease US tariff hit

The big risk ahead?

It’s a self-inflicted wound.

The elephant in the room is inflation. Countries imposing duties on their imports force the recipient of those goods to foot the additional bill. Do the buyers swallow it or pass it on?

The latest US data contained strong evidence that tariff charges were now making their way down the country’s supply chains, threatening to squeeze American consumers in the months ahead.

It’s why the US central bank has been refusing demands from Mr Trump to cut interest rates. You don’t slow the pace of price rises by making borrowing costs cheaper.

A prolonged period of higher inflation would not go down well with US businesses or voters. It’s why financial markets have followed a recent trend known as TACO, helping stock markets remain at record levels.

The belief is that Trump always chickens out. He may have to back down if inflation takes off.

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