The Office for National Statistics (ONS) is making major changes to how it gathers some of the UK’s most important data. These figures shape decisions on wages, benefits, and public spending.
One of the biggest shifts involves how inflation is measured, which is changing on Tuesday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), which tracks the cost of everyday essentials like food, energy, and transport, is being updated with a new system that aims to capture price changes more accurately.
This matters because inflation figures influence the Bank of England’s decisions on interest rates, which in turn affect the cost of borrowing, savings, and even rent.
For workers, inflation also plays a role in wage negotiations. This is because when prices rise, there’s often pressure on employers and the government to increase salaries, pensions, and benefits.
The ONS will continue sending researchers to shops to check prices and speak to retailers, but from this month, a new digital system will speed up how the data is processed.
It’s also testing a new method using real checkout data from supermarkets. Instead of just recording shelf prices, it will track what people actually pay, including discounts from loyalty schemes like Clubcard and Nectar. This should give a more accurate picture of real spending habits, with full rollout expected by 2026.
The change has been brought about over concerns the previous method measured price changes but failed to capture how consumers changed what they buy as a result.
Take the example of butter, which has gone up in price by 18% in the past year. That increase was reflected in the CPI, influencing the overall inflation figure. However, many consumers will have switched to a dairy spread or margarine rather than keep paying for the more expensive butter.
How is inflation data changing?
While this should improve inflation accuracy, tracking individual product prices may become harder. Sky News’ Spending Calculator, which helps users track price changes, will need updates and won’t be refreshed this month.
An ONS spokesperson said: “From next year we will be replacing much of the physical price collection in supermarkets with information from supermarket tills. While we won’t know what each consumer has bought, we will know both the price and quality of items sold in shops up and down the country, marking a step-change in our understanding of inflation and consumer behaviour.”
Data reliability concerns prompt changes
While these changes to the inflation data are intended to better reflect consumer behaviour, other changes are being introduced due to concerns over reliability.
One of the most affected datasets is the Labour Force Survey (LFS), the UK’s largest household study, which measures the state of the labour market and helps shape decisions on interest rates and employment. However, plummeting response rates mean its reliability is now in question.
“I think policymakers just don’t have as much trust or confidence in the LFS, so they have to find other ways to get the clear insights they used to rely on the LFS for,” said Michael McMahon, professor of economics at Oxford and former Bank of England economist.
“The Bank of England has a set of regional agents who will go out and speak to businesses. They’ll speak to local bodies and even in some cases do citizens’ panels. They were doing that before the LFS issue. It’s just they have to rely on these alternatives more, because they can rely less on the LFS.”
The pandemic accelerated these issues when face-to-face LFS interviews were replaced with phone surveys, causing a sharp drop in participation.
Internal ONS emails, revealed by the Financial Times, showed how one key estimate’s sample size had “collapsed to only five individuals” — too small for reliable statistics.
Resolution Foundation analysis shows that HMRC payroll and self-employment data aligned with LFS estimates before 2020 but after the pandemic began to diverge.
To address this, the ONS is developing the Transformed Labour Force Survey (TLFS), using shorter questionnaires and shifting primarily to online responses, with some face-to-face interviews remaining.
Survey issues aren’t just affecting job figures, they’re also complicating GDP estimates.
The Living Costs and Food Survey (LCF), which tracks incomes and spending and is used for GDP estimates, has seen a sharp drop in response rates, with fewer than one in five forms completed as of December 2024. The survey is particularly time-consuming, requiring participants to log spending for two weeks. A new digital tool allowing receipts to be scanned is in development but won’t launch until late 2025.
For policymakers, these delays are frustrating. “It’s certainly a moment of embarrassment: the idea that the chancellor and the governor [of the Bank of England] go to G7 meetings, talk to other advanced economies, and explain why we don’t know how our labour market is doing with any great confidence,” said McMahon.
Flawed migration data
Recent improvements to the way the ONS gathers migration data also highlight significant failings in the recent past.
Long-term migration estimates are a vital part of public debate and key policy decisions.
Before COVID, migration estimates relied on traveller surveys at airports and ports. These surveys frequently underestimated migration levels, as they depended on people’s own predictions about how long they would stay in the UK.
Under this method, net migration was seen to have peaked in December 2022, at 764,000.
Now, the ONS has shifted to using visa records, higher education statistics, and tax data to provide a clearer picture. Under this new method, it has become clear that net migration has been much higher than previously thought, peaking at 906,000 in June 2023.
Overall, the ONS increased its estimate for net migration in 2023 by more than 25%.
However, while these changes are making migration data more reliable, they also highlight how much of the political debate on immigration in recent years has been built on incomplete figures. The transition to administrative data is a step forward, but further refinements will be needed to ensure long-term accuracy.
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open-source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
Young people could lose their right to universal credit if they refuse to engage with help from a new scheme without good reason, the government has warned.
Almost one million will gain from plans to get them off benefits and into the workforce, according to officials.
It comes as the number of young people not in employment, education or training (NEET) has risen by more than a quarter since the COVID pandemic, with around 940,000 16 to 24-year-olds considered as NEET as of September this year, said the Office for National Statistics.
That is an increase of 195,000 in the last two years, mainly driven by increasing sickness and disability rates.
The £820m package includes funding to create 350,000 new workplace opportunities, including training and work experience, which will be offered in industries including construction, hospitality and healthcare.
Around 900,000 people on universal credit will be given a “dedicated work support session”.
That will be followed by four weeks of “intensive support” to help them find work in one of up to six “pathways”, which are: work, work experience, apprenticeships, wider training, learning, or a workplace training programme with a guaranteed interview at the end.
However, Work and Pensions Secretary Pat McFadden has warned that young people could lose some of their benefits if they refuse to engage with the scheme without good reason.
The government says these pathways will be delivered in coordination with employers, while government-backed guaranteed jobs will be provided for up to 55,000 young people from spring 2026, but only in those areas with the highest need.
However, shadow work and pensions secretary Helen Whately, from the Conservatives, said the scheme is “an admission the government has no plan for growth, no plan to create real jobs, and no way of measuring whether any of this money delivers results”.
She told Sky News the proposals are a “classic Labour approach” for tackling youth unemployment.
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Youth jobs plan ‘the wrong answer’
“What we’ve seen today announced by the government is funding the best part of £1bn on work placements, and government-created jobs for young people. That sounds all very well,” she told Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips.
“But the fact is, and that’s the absurdity of it is, just two weeks ago, we had a budget from the chancellor, which is expected to destroy 200,000 jobs.
“So the problem we have here is a government whose policies are destroying jobs, destroying opportunities for young people, now saying they’re going to spend taxpayers’ money on creating work placements. It’s just simply the wrong answer.”
Ms Whately also said the government needs to tackle people who are unmotivated to work at all, and agreed with Mr McFadden on taking away the right to universal credit if they refuse opportunities to work.
But she said the “main reason” young people are out of work is because “they’re moving on to sickness benefits”.
Ms Whately also pointed to the government’s diminished attempt to slash benefits earlier in the year, where planned welfare cuts were significantly scaled down after opposition from their own MPs.
The funding will also expand youth hubs to help provide advice on writing CVs or seeking training, and also provide housing and mental health support.
Some £34m from the funding will be used to launch a new “Risk of NEET indicator tool”, aimed at identifying those young people who need support before they leave education and become unemployed.
Monitoring of attendance in further education will be bolstered, and automatic enrolment in further education will also be piloted for young people without a place.
The owners of one of Britain’s biggest trade show operators has picked bankers to oversee a sale next year which could fetch well over £1bn.
Sky News has learnt that Providence Equity Partners, which has backed CloserStill Media since 2018, has hired Jefferies and The Raine Group to orchestrate talks with potential buyers.
City sources said this weekend that CloserStill’s earnings trajectory meant that £1bn was likely to be the minimum price tag offered by prospective new owners of the business.
The company operates more than 200 specialist events, in sectors including healthcare and technology.
In September, it acquired Billington Cybersecurity, an operator of shows in the US.
CloserStill’s performance has, like many of its peers, rebounded since the nadir of the Covid pandemic, when many conference organisers feared for their survival.
Alongside Searchlight, another private equity firm, Providence also owns Hyve, another major events organiser.
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Other players in the sector include Clarion, which is owned by Blackstone and which conducted an aborted sale process earlier this year.
Bidders for CloserStill are expected to include trade rivals and other financial investors.
Piers Morgan, the broadcaster and journalist, is raising tens of millions of dollars of funding from heavyweight investors as he seeks to turn Uncensored, his YouTube-based venture, into a broad-based global media business.
Sky News can exclusively reveal that Mr Morgan is in the process of finalising a roughly $30m (£22.5m) fundraising for Uncensored that will give it a pre-money valuation of about $130m (£97m).
The new investors are understood to include The Raine Group, the New York-based merchant bank, and Theo Kyriakou, the media mogul behind Greece’s Antenna Group, owner of a stake in London-based digital venture The News Movement.
Michael Kassan, a marketing veteran, is understood to be advising the business on advertising-related matters and may also invest in a personal capacity, according to insiders.
A number of family offices from around the world are also said to be in talks to become shareholders in Uncensored.
Joe Ravitch, the prominent American banker and Raine co-founder who has advised in recent years on the sale of Chelsea and Manchester United football clubs, is said to be joining the Uncensored board as part of the capital-raising.
The move comes nearly a year after Mr Morgan announced his departure from Rupert Murdoch’s British empire through a deal which handed him full control and ownership of his Uncensored YouTube channel.
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Allies of Mr Morgan said this weekend that some details of the fundraising were likely to be confirmed publicly in the coming days.
While the size of his personal stake in the business was unclear this weekend, insiders said the crystallisation of a $130m valuation would mean that Mr Morgan’s economic interest was, on paper, worth tens of millions of pounds.
“The ambition is to grow this into a billion dollar company within a few years,” said one person close to the discussions with investors.
“With the scale of audiences now being driven to digital channels and the commercial opportunities there, that is definitely achievable.”
The former Mirror editor, whose career has also encompassed stints at ITV, with CNN in the US and Mr Murdoch’s global media conglomerates News Corporation and Fox, is now drawing up plans to transform Uncensored into a more diverse digital media group.
This is expected to include the launch of a series of ‘verticals’ attached to the Uncensored brand, including channels dedicated to subjects such as history, sport and technology.
Mr Morgan is already said to be in talks with prominent figures to spearhead some of these new strands, with a chief executive also expected to be recruited to drive the growth of the overall Uncensored business.
His appetite to establish a YouTube-based global media network has been driven by the scale of the global audiences he has drawn to some of his recent work, including interviews with the footballer Cristiano Ronaldo and the former world tennis number one Novak Djokovic.
Image: Piers Morgan interviewed Ronaldo. Pic: Reuters
Both of those athletes have collaborated with Mr Morgan by posting parts of their exchanges on social media platforms, attracting hundreds of millions of views.
Mr Morgan’s access to President Donald Trump, whom he has interviewed on several occasions, is also likely to be a factor in the timing of Uncensored’s expansion strategy.
While many ‘legacy’ news and media networks remain hamstrung by inflated cost bases, Mr Morgan’s decision to go it alone and focus on developing the Uncensored brand reflects his belief that the news and media industries are ripe for disintermediation by channels tied to prominent, and sometimes controversial, individual journalists and presenters.
The Piers Morgan Uncensored YouTube channel has 4.3 million subscribers, roughly half of whom are from the US.
Of the remaining 50%, however, only a minority are British, with a significant number based in the Middle East, South Africa and parts of Asia.
Image: Novak Djokovic at Flushing Meadows. Pic: AP
This has fuelled Mr Morgan’s view that there is journalistic and commercial mileage in creating content on issues which historically might have struggled to generate a significant international audience – such as ongoing military and political tension between India and Pakistan, and the white farmer ‘genocide’ furore in South Africa.
Under the deal he struck with Mr Murdoch in January this year, Mr Morgan has a four-year revenue-sharing agreement that involves News UK receiving a slice of the advertising revenue generated by Piers Morgan Uncensored until 2029.
Mr Morgan had returned to Mr Murdoch’s media empire in January 2022 with a three-year agreement that included writing regular columns for The Sun and New York Post, as well as presenting shows on the company’s now-folded television channel, Talk TV.
He also recently released a book, Woke Is Dead, which was published by Mr Murdoch’s books subsidiary, Harper Collins.
As part of his new arrangements, Mr Morgan also signed a deal with Red Seat Ventures, a US-based agency which partners with prominent media figures and influencers to help them exploit commercial opportunities through sponsorship and other revenue streams.
Among those Red Seat has worked with are Megyn Kelly, the American commentator, and Tucker Carlson, the former Fox News presenter.
While many well-known American news media figures are followed because of their partisanship and affiliations to either the political left or right, Mr Morgan has positioned himself as a ‘ringmaster’ who is not ideologically hidebound.
His plans come at a time of continuing upheaval in the global media industry, with Netflix agreeing a landmark $83bn deal this week to buy the Hollywood studio Warner Bros.
In the UK, Sky, the Comcast-owned immediate parent company of Sky News, is in talks to acquire ITV’s broadcasting business, while the Daily Telegraph newspaper could soon find itself as a stablemate of the Daily Mail if a proposed £500m deal is successful.
Meanwhile, Reach, the London-listed newspaper publisher which owns the Daily Express and the Daily Mirror, now has a market valuation of just £176m – less than double that of Mr Morgan’s new standalone digital media company.
When Sky News revealed Mr Morgan’s move to separate from News UK earlier this year, he said: “Owning the [Uncensored] brand allows my team and I the freedom to focus exclusively on building Uncensored into a standalone business, editorially and commercially, and in time, widening it from just me and my content.
“It’s clear from the… US election that YouTube is an increasingly powerful and influential media platform, and Uncensored is one of the fastest-growing shows on it in the world.
“I’m very excited about the potential for Uncensored.”
This weekend, he added: “I am very excited that some of the most experienced and successful players in the global media industry, like Joe, Michael and Theo, share my ambitious vision for Uncensored.