What are the options for peace in Ukraine?
Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s have both said any ceasefire between their two countries must lead to a lasting peace.
Ukraine has not long marked three years of war, in which hundreds of thousands have died or been injured on both sides, according to the respective authorities.
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The Kremlin’s annexation of more Ukrainian territory during its invasion – which it still calls a “special military operation” -and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s determination to uphold its sovereignty has left many analysts doubtful the war will ever end.
But since his return to the White House, Donald Trump has demanded the two sides “make a deal”, withdrawing vital US support to Kyiv until it agreed to come to the negotiating table.
Mr Zelenskyy has now agreed to a 30-day ceasefire, with Mr Trump due to iron out Russia’s demands in a phone call with Mr Putin on Tuesday.
But beyond that – what would a Ukraine without fighting look like? Here we go through some of the options.
Ongoing ceasefire
Beyond the initial 30-day agreement, providing neither side violates it, the ceasefire could continue indefinitely.
“A ceasefire can go on to be an enduring thing,” Dr David Blagden, associate professor in international security and strategy at the University of Exeter, tells Sky News.
He gives the example of North and South Korea, whereby a demilitarised zone (DMZ) has effectively served as a border between the two countries since the Korean War ended in 1953.
“Even if it doesn’t ever lead to a more satisfactory settlement, it might still be better for both parties than endless conflict,” he says.
But any kind of DMZ would require both Ukraine and Russia to pull their troops away from the frontline, which is unlikely, adds Dr Huseyn Aliyev, senior lecturer in East European studies at the University of Glasgow.
A map shows how much of Ukraine Russia controls
Parts of Ukraine become ‘New Russia’
The alternative would be for both Ukraine and Russia to offer concessions to formally end the war.
Top of Vladimir Putin’s “list of demands” for “long-term peace”, and his justification for invading Ukraine in the first place, is Crimea – and four other regions – Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia – becoming part of a ‘New Russia’, as they were before the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991.
A Russian flag flies in the occupied town of Avdiivka, Donetsk. Pic: Reuters
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While Luhansk is almost completely under Russian control, Ukraine still holds significant parts of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson, making them more difficult for Kyiv to let go of.
“We know neither Crimea nor the Donbas regions [Donetsk and Luhansk] would be returned [to Ukraine] as part of a truce,” Dr Aliyev says. “So it would involve ceding control over those parts.
“But Kherson and Zaporizhzhia are more complicated – especially Kherson – as Kherson city was so painfully liberated by Ukraine in 2022.”
Although many doubt Russia would stop there in terms of territory, Dr Blagden adds: “There would be Russian rationale for being content with what they already have. It’s been hugely costly for them – and destroyed a lot of their expensively modernised military. It’s also filtered through into Russian civilian life, to an extent, via the sanctions and casualties, despite the Kremlin’s efforts to insulate Russia’s upper and middle classes from the worst of the war.
“Likewise, for Ukraine – galling and unfair though it may be – there’s likely now more recognition that retaking lost ground will be desperately hard, especially without assured supplies of US weaponry and intelligence. So, they could have reason to live with some sort of ceasefire too.”
Power plants and infrastructure split
Mr Trump has said his team has already proposed “dividing up certain assets” between the two countries – namely “land and power plants” – and will discuss the details with Mr Putin in a phone call on Tuesday.
He did not give any specifics, but these are likely to include the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, which has been occupied by Russia since March 2022, and is one of the largest in the world.
Other key infrastructure that could come under Moscow’s control includes the Nova Kakhovka dam, blown up in 2023 and not yet rebuilt, and other river crossings.
A Russian soldier guards the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in 2022. File pic: AP
Zelenskyy replaced
A truce would also likely include a new leader for Ukraine. Mr Zelenskyy has already told Sky News he is open to stepping down if it means Ukraine can join NATO.
One of Mr Putin’s demands is that Ukraine is never allowed NATO membership – but replacing Mr Zelenskyy could still serve to appease him – and Donald Trump, who has called him a “dictator” and accused him of “gambling with World War Three”.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy during a tense exchange with Donald Trump at the White House. Pic: Reuters
“It would be easier for Zelenskyy to call an election and have somebody replace him,” Dr Aliyev says. “But there’s a problem of who that would be – as there’s not much left of the Ukrainian opposition.”
Contenders include Ukrainian ambassador to the UK Valerii Zaluzhnyi – or one of the generals currently in charge of the military, he adds.
But the Kremlin would prefer a pro-Russian regime in Kyiv, according to Dr Blagden.
“Short of being able to conquer the whole country, a government that’s more favourable towards Russian interests would obviously be their preference,” he says.
“Similar to the one they’ve worked hard to install in Georgia, they might hope for the return of Ukraine’s more pro-Russian politicians and sentiment from before 2014. But of course, Ukrainian opinion is now galvanised against anyone seen as a puppet of Moscow.”
‘Minor concessions’ for Ukraine
Although Russia’s demands would mean a series of heavy blows for Ukraine, there could be some “minor concessions”, security and defence analyst Professor Michael Clarke says.
US national security adviser Mike Waltz has said Ukraine would get “security guarantees” if it agrees to cede territory – but has not specified what they would be.
Other possible concessions include the return of tens of thousands of Ukrainian children who were abducted and forcibly resettled in Russia – and prisoners of war on both sides.
In principle, if a truce was agreed, the International Criminal Court could also begin an investigation into whether war crimes were committed on either side.
“In these situations where there’s a fundamental disagreement and you can’t see the way forward, you often concentrate on some of the minor details,” Professor Clarke says.
Starmer’s ‘coalition of the willing’
Sir Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron have spearheaded the idea of a so-called “coalition of the willing” to uphold a potential truce or ceasefire.
Sir Keir’s team says “more than 30” countries are interested in contributing to the peacekeeping force – but the US has been notably absent from leaders’ meetings so far. Vladimir Putin has also said he would not accept NATO forces in Ukraine, posing a major obstacle to the plans.
The prime minister has not specified how the coalition would work but said that military chiefs would meet to discuss the “operational phase” on Thursday.
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What could a peacekeeping force actually do?
Lower risk option
According to the experts, the coalition could take two potential forms.
Neither would involve guarding the entire frontline. That’s because, at 640 miles long, it would require more than 100,000 troops at a time – and 300,000 with rotations.
A map shows the frontline of fighting in Ukraine
By contrast, the first option would be stationing troops away from the line of control, largely in western Ukraine – or at key infrastructural sites or transport hubs to ensure they continue running smoothly.
This would be a similar operation to the British one in Estonia – where 900 troops are stationed to deter Russian aggression. The Ukrainian one would involve up to 30,000 personnel and be focused primarily on monitoring, logistics, and training, the experts say.
A British paratrooper and helicopter in Estonia in May 2024. Pic: Reuters
“The challenge for any peacekeeping force is balancing effectiveness and escalatory risk,” Dr Blagden adds.
“Calling it a ‘peacekeeping’ force might create the impression of neutrality. But of course, it wouldn’t be neutral – they’re there to defend one of two sides. It would be better understood as a garrison whose job would be to ensure that Russia can’t attack Ukraine without attacking NATO troops, and therefore risking a wider war with nuclear-armed powers,” he says.
“A larger combat force closer to the frontline would create more deterrence but with more escalatory risk – whereas a smaller force further from the frontline – perhaps merely fulfilling training and support tasks – would carry much less escalatory risk but therefore also be much less of a deterrent”.
Ordinarily, that deterrent would be hugely bolstered by the US, which under NATO’s Article 5 could send in powerful air forces to attack ones on the ground – as it has in places like Iraq.
But Donald Trump’s tense relations with Ukraine and suggestions the US could leave NATO have thrown its Article 5 obligations into major doubt.
‘Rapid reaction force’ closer to frontline
Alternatively, coalition troops could be sent closer to the frontline, Professor Clarke says.
They would be split into brigades manning four or five strategic bases like the cities of Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, and Kharkiv or Kyiv.
Describing them as a “rapid reaction force at high readiness”, Professor Clarke adds: “To be able to go to any trouble spot and snuff it out they’d need a lot of transport – particularly air cover to get there quickly enough.”
They too would likely need to be backed up by a US security guarantee, he says, but under the Trump administration, this is by no means certain.
A UN peacekeeping vehicle in southern Lebanon in November 2024. Pic: Reuters
Neutral peacekeeping force
Alternatively, a peacekeeping force could be led by the United Nations, which would recruit personnel from neutral countries in exchange for incentives, as it does elsewhere.
With the second-largest military in NATO, Turkey could be involved, Dr Aliyev says.
But with Vladimir Putin’s rejection of potential NATO forces, he may be more likely to accept ones from the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) nations, Professor Clarke adds.
“Putin has hinted at troops from the Global South as monitors – because he thinks they are on his side,” he says. India in particular could be a viable option, he says.
“India has got big forces and wants to play a bigger strategic role in the world. Russia wouldn’t want to fire on Indian forces because of the political implications for their relationship – so they might be most acceptable to both Russia and the West.”
UN peacekeepers training in Mongolia. Pic: Reuters
While a neutral option might be the most practical – it may not be hugely successful, Dr Aliyev cautions.
“Similar missions in Lebanon and sub-Saharan Africa have been relatively low in effectiveness,” he says.”A UN force might be the most feasible for Russia – but a coalition of the willing would last longer.”
World
UAE is ‘main backer behind RSF militia in Sudan’, intelligence officer claims in secret interview
The tribal militia turned paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan are known to document their own war crimes.
Videos of their fighters lynching women, lashing emergency responders and cheering over dead bodies have circulated online since the start of the RSF’s war with Sudan‘s army in April 2023.
One piece of evidence never revealed in any of their violent videos is who is backing them and why?
In an exclusive interview with Sky News at a location we cannot disclose, an RSF intelligence officer confirms widespread allegations that the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is the RSF’s main backer in a war that has created the world’s largest humanitarian crisis and forced 13 million people to flee their homes.
“In the beginning, it was the Russians – Wagner and the state. Now, they tell me it is the UAE supporting the RSF,” says Ahmed*, using an alias to protect his identity.
An RSF intelligence officer speaks anonymously to Sky’s Yousra Elbagir
Originally from North Darfur, Ahmed lives a double life as a refugee in one of Sudan’s neighbouring countries while staying connected to forces on the ground.
“Many of the planes landing at Nyala [in South Darfur] are said to bring weapons from the UAE and partially through the Amdjarras airport in Chad.
“It’s a financial relationship, no more,” he said. “The RSF controls areas with large gold mines – Darfur alone has more than four or five gold mines – the UAE is a gold trading hub.”
The RSF is accused of genocide in Darfur and mass looting, sexual violence and armed raids across the country.
Its troops are currently strangling the last state-held capital of North Darfur in a violent siege to complete its control of western Sudan. Close to a million people in Al Fashir locality are being starved by an RSF blockade and bombarded by daily drone strikes and shelling.
The RSF has physically reinforced its siege of Al Fashir with a berm – a raised earth mound. This map shows its encirclement. Pic: Yale School of Public Health
On the outskirts of North Darfur’s Karnoi town, we meet Joint Task Forces intelligence commander Idris Ali.
The Joint Task Forces are made up of former rebels from across Darfur that the military armed the RSF to crush, through mass ethnic violence in the early 2000s. Now, they are armed by the state to fight the RSF.
“Our patriotism does not allow us to surrender. Our right to the land means we have to fight until our last breath,” says Commander Ali.
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The RSF is currently using sophisticated weapons and drones to pummel his forces and civilians in Al Fashir, and carry out strikes across Sudan.
The RSF is well armed
“According to our sources, the weapons come from the UAE. Chad is just a corridor for these arms to reach Sudan,” he added.
According to his intelligence, supplies travel from Chad’s second city Abeche through the Adre crossing and into West Darfur to Al Geneina – the state capital the RSF massacred before its violent takeover in November 2023.
One video he shared with us shows a truck crossing after dark with khaki material covering its cargo.
The commander says it was filmed by sources on the Chad-Sudan border during an arms transfer from Adre town into West Darfur. There is no identifiable branding of humanitarian aid or visible signs of weapons in the footage.
In another video, a convoy of land cruisers races through terrain similar to that of eastern Chad. He says his sources also documented this at the Adre crossing and alleges that the land cruisers are painted in RSF colours and turned into lethal ‘technicals’ [weaponised civilian vehicles] once in West Darfur.
Sudanese state forces in front of burning armed vehicles that appear to have come from the UAE
He describes a second route that runs south of the border town Tine into North Darfur. Further north, he says RSF arms and supplies land in Amdjarras airport in Chad and head to the main RSF base and supply hub in Zurug town.
At least 86 flights travelling from the UAE to Amdjarras airport were independently documented by December 2024.
In a letter to the United Nations Security Council on 4 September, the Sudanese authorities alleged no fewer than 248 flights between November 2024 and February 2025 were operated by UAE-chartered aircraft to smuggle mercenaries, weapons and military equipment into Sudanese territory.
More recently, online flight tracker @AfriMEOSINT noted flights from the UAE arriving in N’djamena airport in Chad’s capital. On 20 September, a cargo flight left Al Reef airbase in Abu Dhabi and landed in the military section of N’Djamena airport.
In April, the Guardian reported on a leaked United Nations report that documented a consistent pattern of Ilyushin 1L-76TD cargo flights originating from the UAE into Chad, with multiple flights making deliberate attempts to avoid detection and identified at least three overland routes from Chad potentially used for transporting weapons into Sudan.
According to the Guardian, the experts added they could not identify what the planes were carrying or locate any evidence the planes were transporting weapons. These findings were not included in the final 39-page report.
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Smugglers risking their lives to fight famine
UAE ‘categorically rejects’ claims
We presented the allegations in our report to the UAE’s foreign ministry. It sent us this response:
“Since the onset of the civil war, the UAE has consistently supported regional and international efforts to achieve an immediate ceasefire, protect civilians, and ensure accountability for violations committed by all warring parties.
“The UAE remains committed to a civilian-led process that places the needs of the Sudanese people above the interests of any faction.
“In this spirit, the UAE notes a marked increase in unfounded accusations and deliberate propaganda from the so-called Port Sudan Authority, one of the warring parties to the civil war, which actively undermines efforts to end the conflict and restore stability.
“These escalating fabrications form part of a calculated pattern of deflection – shifting blame to others to evade responsibility for its own actions – intended to prolong the war and obstruct a genuine peace process.
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“We categorically reject any claims of providing any form of support to either warring party since the onset of the civil war, and condemn atrocities committed by both Port Sudan Authority and RSF.
“The latest UN Panel of Experts report makes clear that there is no substantiated evidence that the UAE has provided any support to RSF, or has any involvement in the conflict.
“The UAE reaffirms its unwavering commitment to working closely with partners to foster dialogue, mobilise international support, and contribute to initiatives that address the humanitarian crisis and lay the groundwork for sustainable peace.
“These efforts will assist in building a secure and stable future for Sudan that meets the aspirations of the brotherly Sudanese people for peace and development.”
The Chadian government did not respond to our request for comment.
Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister has told Sky News he believes Donald Trump is “very, very committed” to ending the war in Gaza.
Prince Faisal bin Farhan al Saud said a recent meeting between the US president and Arab leaders went “very well” and that he was hopeful that a peace deal could soon be agreed.
He told The World with Yalda Hakim: “The war has gone on for far too long, too many people have died. Too much suffering has occurred [and] we have a famine going on in Gaza right now.
“And I got the sense from the meeting that President Trump is very, very committed to finding a path to ending the war, bringing the hostages out, bringing the relief to the people of Gaza.
“So I’m actually hopeful that we’ve started the dialogue that’s going to get us towards achieving this ceasefire.”
Saudi Arabia foreign minister Faisal bin Farhan al Saud speaks to Sky News
His comments come amid heightened international pressure on Israel after a commission established by the United Nations recently found its military was committing genocide in Gaza.
Israel, which launched its offensive in Gaza in response to Hamas’s deadly 7 October attacks in 2023, said it “categorically rejects this distorted and false report”.
Alongside the UN Commission report, multiple Western countries, including the UK, have also decided to formally recognise Palestine as a state.
That has prompted some Israeli ministers to call for the annexation of the West Bank to push back against efforts towards a two-state solution to the conflict.
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UN chief responds to Gaza aid sabotaging allegations
But speaking to Sky News, Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister said he felt “reassured that the [US] president understands how dangerous the idea of annexation in the West Bank is, how strongly the Arab and Muslim countries feel about the need to find an end to the war.”
After the Sky News interview was recorded, Mr Trump appeared to confirm such a stance later on Thursday, telling reporters at the White House: “I will not allow Israel to annex the West Bank… It’s not gonna’ happen… There’s been enough.”
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Meanwhile, the Saudi foreign minister told Sky News that formal recognition of Palestine by so many nations demonstrated that “real hope partially exists in the renewed commitment by the international community to the two-state solution to a Palestinian state”.
He said: “Because that’s a strong signal to everyone, but most particularly to the Palestinian people, that there is actually a hope for them to live in peace and harmony side by side with Israel.”
Former French President Nicolas Sarkozy has been sentenced to five years in prison.
The former president, 70, was found guilty of criminal conspiracy, but was cleared of all other charges in the trial over the alleged illegal financing of his 2007 presidential campaign by the government of late Libyan dictator Moammar Gaddafi.
The court in Paris found him guilty of criminal conspiracy, but not guilty of passive corruption, illegal campaign financing, and concealing the embezzlement of public funds.
In a surprise move, the judge said he would be jailed regardless of whether he appeals the verdict, which usually suspends sentencing. He was not sent straight to jail, however, with the start date of his sentence yet to be decided.
Sarkozy denied the charges during the three-month court case, which he claimed was politically motivated.
He was accompanied to Thursday’s hearing by his wife, singer and model Carla Bruni-Sarkozy, and his three sons.
Overall, the verdict suggested the former president and his co-defendants had conspired to seek Libyan campaign funding – but not that he was directly involved or that money was actually used.
The judge said Sarkozy had allowed his associates to reach out to Libyan authorities “to obtain or try to obtain financial support in Libya for the purpose of securing campaign financing”.
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Sarkozy says he will appeal guilty verdict
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Earlier this year, Sarkozy was stripped of his Legion of Honour medal, France‘s highest accolade.
In 2021, he was found guilty of trying to bribe a magistrate for information about a legal case in which he was implicated in 2014. Two years later, he was sentenced to a year on electronic tag, of which six months were suspended. After three months, it was ruled he could remove the monitoring device due to his age.
In another case last year, he was convicted of illegal campaign financing during his unsuccessful 2012 re-election bid, having spent almost twice the allowed amount. He was sentenced to a year in prison, with six months suspended.
He has appealed the sentence and is awaiting the outcome from France’s highest court – the Court of Cassation.
Despite his criminal record, Sarkozy has remained an influential figure within the French Right.
Nicolas Sarkozy (right) and Muammar Gaddafi (second right) in 2007. Pic: Reuters
Light shed on French-Libyan relations during Gaddafi’s rule
During the Gaddafi finance trial, he described the case against him as a “plot” staged by the “Gaddafi clan” and other “liars and crooks”.
He claimed it was revenge for his decision to call for Gaddafi to be removed from office.
The allegations stretch back to 2011 when a Libyan news agency reported that Gaddafi had said Libya had secretly sent millions of euros to Sarkozy’s election campaign.
A year later, French investigative outlet Mediapart published what it claimed to be a piece of Libyan intelligence referencing a £43.7m funding agreement, which Sarkozy rubbished and saw him sue for defamation.
The court ruled on Thursday that it “now appears most likely that this document was a forgery”.
In the current case, Sarkozy had 11 co-defendants, including three former ministers.
Two of them, Claude Gueant and Brice Hortefeux, both among his closest confidantes during his presidency, were also found guilty of criminal association but not guilty on other charges.
The trial shed light on France’s relationship with Libya during the 2000s, when Gaddafi, who was toppled and killed in 2011, was trying to restore diplomatic ties with Western countries.
It also saw investigators scrutinise several trips to Libya made by people in Sarkozy’s inner circle while he was still interior minister between 2005 and 2007 – including his chief-of-staff.
In a key development in 2016, Franco-Lebanese businessman Ziad Takieddine told Mediapart he had delivered suitcases full of cash from Tripoli to the French interior ministry while Sarkozy was in charge – but later retracted the claims.
Co-defendant Franco-Lebanese businessman Ziad Takieddine. Pic: Reuters
Mr Takieddine, who was one of the co-defendants, died aged 75 on Tuesday in Beirut, according to his lawyer Elise Arfi said. He fled to Lebanon in 2020 and did not attend the trial.
His change-of-heart is now subject to a separate investigation into alleged witness interference – but it has not yet gone to trial.
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