Labour was the party that created the welfare state. Now it is intent on cutting it back.
And in Liz Kendall, the government has found a Labour work and pensions secretary clearly entirely comfortable in going harder on benefit cuts than any of her Conservative predecessors since 2015, according to the Institute of Fiscal Studies.
When I ask her about that, she is unrepentant and unfazed by colleagues’ criticisms.
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‘I wouldn’t be able to survive’
“I am going to be a Labour work and pensions secretary who fixes a broken system,” she said, “who says to people who’ve been written off and denied chances and choices that we believe in them…
“I am cross, because I’ve seen in my own constituency people written off to a life that is not the life they hoped for themselves or their children or their families.
“I want to fix it. And that’s what I’m determined to do.”
This, then, is the moral case for reform that she and the prime minister have talked about in recent weeks.
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And on Tuesday, Ms Kendall outlined reforms designed to reduce those claiming the main disability, with hundreds of thousands of people expected to lose personal independence payments (PIP) if they suffer from milder mental health conditions and less severe physical difficulties.
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Labour announces benefit cuts
The target is to save £5bn from a disability benefits bill for working-age people set to balloon by over £20bn to £75bn by the end of the decade.
Ask some in Labour and they will privately acknowledge and argue this is but a drop in the ocean, with one insider telling me this week they didn’t think the reforms went far enough.
“I don’t think people have clocked the size of the numbers going on here,” they said. Look at the public finances and you can see why.
While the Labour Party clearly talked about welfare reform in its manifesto, it never signalled it would make these sorts of cuts to the benefits bill. But the environment has changed.
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‘I wouldn’t be able to survive’
Growth is sluggish, which many businesses – and the opposition – blame on tax rises in the October budget, while the cost of government borrowing is on the rise.
The chancellor now finds herself with a hole in the public finances to the tune of £9.9bn, which she has to fill if she is to fulfil her self-imposed fiscal rule that day-to-day government spending must be funded through tax receipts – not borrowing – by 2029/30.
She was crystal clear to me in our conversation for the Sky News’ Electoral Dysfunction podcast that she was not going to loosen her fiscal rules – although many MPs think she should.
She was also clear she wasn’t coming back with more tax rises. Instead it will be spending cuts, and welfare is the first wave, with a spending squeeze across Whitehall departments expected in the Spring Statement.
His hope is that reform – be it through technology or efficiency savings – can mean public services are maintained even if rates of spending growth are reduced.
It may not feel like that for those who are at the sharp end of the £5bn of benefit cuts coming down the track.
Liz Kendall would not rule out further cuts to the welfare bill further down the line in an interview with Sky News on Tuesday, which will make many in her party nervous with some MPs and ministers concerned about the motivations of the government in its overhaul of the benefits system.
“The intellectual question hasn’t been answered here: is this about principled reform or is it a cost-saving exercise?,” one cabinet source told me on Tuesday.
“There are some concerns this doesn’t fix the issues around welfare but rather is about finding quick savings.”
There will be unease among MPs, unions and charities as the Labour Party moves onto traditional Tory territory with welfare cuts as a strapped Labour government looks for savings. It is uncomfortable terrain.
“I have to say these are Conservative policies that Labour MPs will be voting for,” the former Tory work and pensions secretary Baroness Coffey told me on Tuesday.
“Overall, I think a lot of Labour MPs will be very unhappy about what they heard today [but] I think the Conservatives will support a considerable amount of that because, as I say, a lot of this was Conservative policy. We didn’t have time to do the legislation, unfortunately, towards the end of the parliament.”
Sir Keir Starmer has the majority to bring in these changes, but cutting the benefits of those living with disabilities will be controversial in the Labour movement even if the measures are more popular with the wider public.
As one veteran Labour MP put it to me: “This is one of these issues that come back to bite later.”
The devil will be in the detail, and for now, hundreds of thousands of benefits recipients don’t know if they will still be eligible for the main disability benefit – personal independence payments – in the coming months, with the government yet to outline where the £5bn of savings will be found.
It is an anxious time for those who rely on the welfare state. How long a shadow these reforms will cast over Sir Keir’s domestic agenda is hard to tell – but these reforms look set to become his hardest sell.
More than 600 artefacts have been stolen from a building housing items belonging to a museum in Bristol.
The items were taken from Bristol Museum’s British Empire and Commonwealth collection on 25 September, Avon and Somerset Police said.
The force described the burglary as involving “high-value” artefacts, as they appealed for the public’s help in identifying people caught on CCTV.
It is not clear why the appeal is being issued more than two months after the burglary occurred.
The break-in took place between 1am and 2am on Thursday 25 September when a group of four unknown males gained entry to a building in the Cumberland Road area of the city.
Detectives say they hope the four people on CCTV will be able to aid them with their enquiries.
This breaking news story is being updated and more details will be published shortly.
Ramesh lives in fear every day. A police siren is enough to alarm him.
He’s one of up to 400,000 visa overstayers in the UK, one lawyer we spoke to believes.
It’s only an estimate because the Home Office has stopped collecting figures – which were unreliable in the first place.
Britain is being laughed at, one man told us, “because they know it’s a soft country”.
Image: ‘Ramesh’ came to the UK from India
We meet Ramesh (not his real name) at a Gurdwara, a Sikh place of worship, where he goes for food and support.
He insists he can’t return to India where he claims he was involved in political activism.
Ramesh says he came to the UK on a student visa in 2023, but it was cancelled when he failed to continue his studies after being involved in a serious accident.
He tells us he is doing cash-in-hand work for people who he knows through the community where he is living and is currently working on a house extension where he gets paid as little as £50 for nine hours labouring.
“It’s very difficult for me to live in the UK without my Indian or Pakistani community – also because there are a lot of Pakistani people who give me work in their houses for cleaning and for household things,” he adds.
‘What will become of people like us?’
Anike has lived in limbo for 12 years.
Now living in Greater Manchester, she came to the UK from Nigeria when her sister Esther was diagnosed with a brain tumour – she had a multi-entry visa but was supposed to leave after three months.
Esther had serious complications from brain surgery and says she is reliant on her sister for care.
Immigration officials are in touch with her because she has to digitally sign in every month.
Anike has had seven failed applications for leave to remain on compassionate grounds refused but is now desperate to have her status settled – afraid of the shifting public mood over migration.
“Everybody is thinking ‘what will become of people like us?'” she adds.
‘It’s a shambles’
The government can’t say with any degree of accuracy how many visa overstayers there are in Britain – no data has been collated for five-and-a-half years.
But piecing together multiple accounts from community leaders and lawyers the picture we’ve built is stark.
Immigration lawyer Harjap Singh Bhangal told us he believed there could be several hundred thousand visa overstayers currently in Britain.
He says: “At this time, there’s definitely in excess of about 200,000 people overstaying in the UK. It might even be closer to 300,000, it could even be 400,000.”
Asked what evidence he has for this he replies: “Every day I see at least one overstayer, any immigration lawyers like me see overstayers and that is the bulk of the work for immigration lawyers.
“The Home Office doesn’t have any accurate data because we don’t have exit controls. It’s a shambles. It’s an institution where every wall in the building is cracked.”
The number of those who are overstaying visas and working cash in hand is also virtually impossible to measure.
‘They know Britain is a soft country’
“They’re laughing at us because they know Britain is a soft country, where you won’t be picked up easily,” says the local man we’ve arranged to meet as part of our investigation.
We’re in Kingsbury in northwest London – an area which people say has been transformed over the past five years as post-Brexit visa opportunities opened up for people coming from South Asia.
‘Mini-Mumbai’
The man we’re talking to lives in the community and helps with events here. He doesn’t want to be identified but raises serious questions about visa abuse.
“Since the last five years, a huge amount of people have come in this country on this visiting visa, and they come with one thing in mind – to overstay and work in cash,” he says.
“This area is easy to live in because they know they can survive. It looks like as if you are walking through mini-Mumbai.”
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2:43
‘The system is more than broken’
‘It’s taxpayers who are paying’
And he claims economic migrants are regularly arriving – who’ve paid strangers to pretend they’re a friend or relative in order to obtain a visitor visa to get to Britain.
He says: “I’ve come across so many people who have come this way into this country. It’s widespread. When I talk to these people, they literally tell me, ‘Oh, someone is coming tomorrow, day after tomorrow, someone is coming’.
“Because they’re hidden they may not be claiming benefits, but they can access emergency healthcare and their children can go to school.
“And who is paying for it? It’s the taxpayers who are paying for all this,” says the man we’ve met in north London.
A Home Office spokesperson said: “We will not tolerate any abuse of our immigration system and anyone found to be breaking the rules will be liable to have enforcement action taken against them.
“In the first year of this government, we have returned 35,000 people with no right to be here – a 13% rise compared to the previous year.
“Arrests and raids for illegal working have soared to their highest levels since records began, up 63% and 51%.”
Harjap Singh Bhangal described the situation as a “shambles”.
“The Home Office doesn’t have any accurate data because we don’t have exit controls. It’s a shambles. It’s an institution where every wall in the building is cracked,” he told Sky’s Lisa Holland.
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5:05
The visa overstayers in ‘soft’ Britain
Why doesn’t the government know?
The Home Office used to gather data on visa overstayers by effectively checking a list of passport numbers associated with visas against a list of passport numbers of people leaving the UK, taken from airlines and other international travel providers.
If there was a passport number match in the arrivals and departures part of their database, that person was recorded to have left when they should have. If there wasn’t, they were a potential overstayer.
They stopped producing the figures because a combination of Brexit and COVID added complications that made the Home Office conclude they wouldn’t be able to get to a reliable number using the same method.
It’s now four and a half years since EU citizens had freedom of movement to the UK revoked, and more than three and a half years since pandemic-era travel restrictions ended.
And yet we are still waiting to see what a new method might look like.
The old method wasn’t perfect. If someone changed their passport while in the UK, for example, or if the airline or individual entered the number wrong when they were leaving, there wouldn’t be a match.
The Home Office regarded the statistics as likely overestimating the true number of overstayers, and the Office for National Statistics designated the figures as “experimental” rather than “official” statistics, meaning the conclusions should be treated with caution. But they were a reasonable best guess.
With all that in mind, between April 2016 and March 2020 upwards of 250,000 people were flagged as potential overstayers, equivalent to 63,000 per year.
That’s more than the 190,000 people who are recorded to have arrived in the UK on small boats since 2018.
It represents 3.5% of the seven million visas that expired over that period, so at least 96.5% of people left when they should.
Other Home Office data reveals that more than 13 million visas were issued between 2020 and the end of June 2025, including a record 3.4 million in 2023.
But what we don’t know is how many have expired, which means it’s difficult for us to even guess how many people might have overstayed.