TOKYO — I have seen an image of Shohei Ohtani, wearing jeans and a white T-shirt, gazing out from a vending machine while standing in a field of green tea leaves, a bottle of Ito En iced tea in his left hand, and I have seen it roughly 4 million times. I have seen Ohtani — two Ohtanis, presumably both the same legendarily indulgent sleeper — sitting on a Sleeptech mattress pad. One Ohtani wears a short-sleeved shirt and holds a baseball bat like a right-handed hitter, the other wears a long-sleeved shirt but holds no bat. Both Ohtanis, whose eyes seem to follow me from the wall of the Tokyo Dome, wear the same expression, which is the same expression found in the field of tea, which can only be described as the look of a man who is dreaming of getting back in the batting cage.
Electronic-billboard Ohtani has looked down upon me from three different directions above the famous Shibuya Crossing, the busiest pedestrian intersection in the world, representing New Balance, DIP (a human resources and recruitment firm that stands for Dreams, Ideas, Passion) and a men’s fragrance called Kosé. He’s 100 feet tall on the side of a building in Shinjuku, wearing the same look next to a couple of Seiko watches. There are many Ohtanis, and so many of them bear the exact same look that it seems plausible that it is one stock image reconstituted to serve an endless number of purposes.
Convenience store Ohtani is draped on a banner across the front of nearly every FamilyMart store, promoting the MLB World Tour: Tokyo Series while holding up onigiri (a Japanese rice ball) and probably wondering how long this is going to take.
I have seen television Ohtani, wearing an apron, prepare and eat a bowl of ramen — chopping his own onion — on a commercial selling something food related that has blurred into all the others. Relaxed yet precise, it is some of his best work. I have seen him standing on a beach kicking a soccer ball for the green tea people, smiling like he’s unaware he’s being filmed. I have seen him morph from Dodger Ohtani to samurai Ohtani on a spot for Fortnite, and it’s hard to tell which one is more imposing. Television Ohtani is an unspoken presence on an ad for T-shirts featuring an artist’s image of his dog, Decoy. (Someone out there, it would seem, is intent on pushing the bounds of fame.)
Television Ohtani is not to be confused with taxi TV Ohtani, who seems to run on an endless backseat loop. On the first day the teams worked out in Tokyo, a massive screen in front of the Tokyo Dome played a mashup of commercials starring Ohtani interspersed with some promotional spots for the series, and a long line of people stood next to it, pointing their phones at the screen.
“Shohei’s impact in Japan is impossible to overstate,” Dodgers president Andrew Friedman says. “We thought we understood it, but until you see it and live it, you can’t fully grasp it.”
Ohtani carries himself like he’s aware that every eye in every room is hyperfocused on him, and him alone. Here, in his home country, is where that truth exceeds the bounds of exaggeration. He has existed here for seven years as nothing more than a figure on a screen — many, many screens — and yet his presence is never more than a street corner away. Baseball fans plan their summer days around Dodgers games, most of which start in the late morning. It feels like more fame than any one human seems capable of containing.
“Every time I go to Japan,” Friedman says, “I think, ‘Well, Shohei, I didn’t miss you at all. I see you everywhere.'”
Ohtani’s mother, Kayoko, handles his business dealings in Japan, and she is clearly killing it. The word is he is judicious with his choices for endorsement deals, but it’s hard to imagine he’s turning much down.
All of it emphasizes Ohtani’s value, not just to himself but to baseball in general and the Dodgers in particular. For six days, Tokyo was one massive ATM. MLB set up a 30,000-square-foot store at the Tokyo Dome to sell Dodgers and Cubs merchandise, everything from logo-printed cookies to Ohtani towels, and it was 10 deep just to get close enough to check the size on an Ohtani jersey. (You could have parked your car in front of the Cubs gear.) Topps put together a remarkably cool four-story baseball card exhibit in Shibuya, right around the corner from the three looming Ohtanis. It included two donations from Ohtani: the base he stole to complete his 50/50 season last year, and a bat he used during the World Series. His deal with Topps netted roughly $7 million for the company last season alone, a company source said, even though card collecting is relatively new in Japan. Stamp rallies, however, are tried-and-true crowd-pleasers, so Topps made sure to include one in the exhibit.
Japan Airlines has an Ohtani-themed plane, his face in triplicate on both sides of the fuselage, and travel agencies throughout Japan operate tours for fans to travel to Los Angeles to watch Ohtani play. Concession stands and signage at Dodger Stadium look vastly different than they did two seasons ago. And Ohtani’s estimated $65 million in annual endorsement income in 2024 — the most of any baseball player, and about $58 million more than the second-place player, Bryce Harper — made it much more palatable for him to defer nearly all of his $700 million contract, which is partly responsible for Friedman’s ability to spend whatever he wants (more than $300 million this season) on whomever he wants.
Ohtani’s fame is such that it can be imprisoning. He has a running feud with Fuji TV in Japan after it flew a drone over the house he bought in Los Angeles and aired the footage. He refused an interview with the network after the Dodgers won the World Series. But rarely has his fame been so stark and unforgiving as it was when the Dodgers’ plane arrived at Haneda Airport on March 13. Roughly 1,000 Japanese fans crowded outside customs to get a glimpse of Ohtani, but the airport had installed white walls that served as a tunnel to separate the players from the public, leaving Ohtani’s fans to settle with breathing the same air.
“It’s too bad, but it’s a security issue,” says Atsushi Ihara, an executive and former director of Nippon Professional Baseball. “If Ohtani walked out of his hotel and down the street, it would end up a police matter.”
The scene in and around the Tokyo Dome for the four exhibition games and the two regular-season games is probably best described as controlled, civil mayhem. Four hours before the first pitch on Opening Day, the crowds were so thick in the shopping areas outside the ballpark that it was difficult to move, which was fine with most people since they were happy to stand in clumps and raise their phones to take videos of the latest Ohtani commercial playing on the massive screens all around them.
(Inside the Dodgers’ clubhouse, a space with all the charm of a middle school locker room, the most prominent feature was a smoking capsule that resembled a phone booth and included a bull’s-eye on the wall showing smokers where to aim for maximum ventilation. No Dodgers appeared to be interested in using it.)
Before every pitch to Ohtani, it felt as if the entire building held its breath before releasing it in one massive exhale. The result was immaterial — foul ball, swing and a miss, take — the response was the same. And when Ohtani hit a homer in his second plate appearance in Tokyo, sending the ball halfway up the bleachers in right against the Tokyo Giants, a group of moms with their tiny daughters, all wearing Ohtani jerseys, danced in the concourse behind the lower deck.
After the game, Giants manager Shinnosuke Abe was asked if he had a chance to speak with Ohtani. “Yes,” he said. “I saw him in the batting cage.” He paused for a moment, as if deciding whether to plow forward. “Some people might not like this,” he said, “but I asked if I could get a picture with him.”
There were five Japanese players in the Tokyo Series, but it was sometimes hard to tell. Dodgers pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto turns up on the occasional train station advertisement for an energy drink that sources on the ground say was initially targeted toward Japan’s middle-aged salarymen and their rigorous schedules. Yamamoto’s task, along with sidekick Ichiro Suzuki, is apparently to recruit the younger Japanese consumer to experience the joys of concentrated caffeine.
But really, there is Ohtani, always Ohtani and seemingly only Ohtani. “It’s hard to imagine him being more famous than he is in America,” Dodgers rookie reliever Jack Dreyer says, “but that’s certainly the case.” In Ohtani’s home prefecture of Iwate, in the far northeastern section of Honshu, I passed a gas station with a row of tire racks covered by tarps emblazoned with Ohtani’s photo. A sign nearby declared, “More than 300,000 tires sold.” It was unclear whether the seller was Ohtani or the station.
“What he is achieving and what he’s already achieved is something out of a comic book,” Ihara says. “Like a comic book superhero, you would think that nobody could do such things in real life. He’s showing us that there’s no limits for us as human beings, and that’s the inspiration that he is continuously providing for us.”
Ohtani played four games in Tokyo, two that counted and two that didn’t, a distinction that didn’t seem to matter. He was here, in the flesh, playing baseball in Japan for the first time in eight seasons, and he provided enough memories — his booming homer in the fifth inning Wednesday is the first that comes to mind — to remind everyone why they came. And then he headed back to his new life, back to being an image on a screen or a vending machine or above a convenience store, back to being nowhere and everywhere, somehow both at once.
But beyond the matchups and narratives, it’s also a good time to take stock of which players bring the most value into the postseason.
That’s where goals above replacement (GAR) comes in — my evolved spin on earlier all-in-one value stats like Tom Awad’s goals versus threshold and Hockey-Reference’s point shares. The core idea of GAR is to measure a player’s total impact — in offense, defense or goaltending — above what a generic “replacement-level” player might provide at the same position. It also strives to ensure the league’s value is better balanced by position: 60% of leaguewide GAR is distributed to forwards, 30% to defensemen and 10% to goaltenders.
To then assess who might be most valuable on the eve of this year’s playoffs, I plugged GAR into a system inspired by Bill James’ concept of an “established level” of performance; in this case, a weighted average of each player’s GAR over the past three regular seasons, with more emphasis on 2024-25. And to keep the metric from undervaluing recent risers, we also apply a safeguard: no player’s established level can be lower than 75% of his most recent season’s GAR.
The result is a blend of peak, recent, and sustained performance — the players on playoff-bound teams who have been great, are currently great or are still trending upward — in a format that gives us a sense of who could define this year’s postseason.
One final note: Injured players who were expected to miss all or substantial parts of the playoffs were excluded from the ranking. Sorry, Jack Hughes.
With that in mind, here are the top 50 skaters and goaltenders on teams in the 2025 playoff field, according to their three-year established level of value, ranked by the numbers:
Five series of the 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs have begun, and two more will begin Monday. Meanwhile, the two matchups in the Central Division are on to Game 2.
Here’s the four-pack of games on the calendar:
What are the key storylines heading into Monday’s games? Who are the key players to watch?
You might’ve heard about the 2010 playoff matchup between these two teams a time or so in the past week.
In that postseason, the overwhelming favorite (and No. 1 seed) Capitals, led by Alex Ovechkin, were upset by the No. 8 seed Canadiens, due in large part to an epic performance in goal from Jaroslav Halak. Halak isn’t walking out of the tunnel for the Habs this time around (we assume); instead it’ll be Becancour, Quebec, native Sam Montembeault, who allowed four goals on 35 shots in his one start against the Caps this season.
Washington’s goaltender for Game 1 has yet to be revealed, as Logan Thompson was injured back on April 2. But there’s no question that there is a disparity between the offensive output of the two clubs, as the Caps finished second in the NHL in goals per game (3.49), while the Canadiens finished 17th (2.96). Can Montreal keep up in this series?
The Blues hung with the Jets for much of Game 1 and even looked like the stronger team at certain times, so pulling off the series upset remains on the table. But getting a win on the unfriendly ice at the Canada Life Centre would be of some benefit in shifting momentum before the series moves to St. Louis for Game 3. The Blues proved that Connor Hellebuyck is not invincible in Game 1, and they were led by stars Jordan Kyrou and Robert Thomas, who both got on the board.
The Jets have a mixed history after winning Game 1 of a playoff series, having gone 3-3 as a franchise (including the Atlanta Thrashers days) on such occasions. Like the Blues, the Jets were led by their stars, Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele, but the game-tying goal came from Alex Iafallo, who has played up and down the lineup this season.
The Stars might like a redo on Game 1 after the visiting Avalanche essentially controlled the festivities for much of the contest. Stars forward Jason Robertson missed Game 1 because of an injury sustained in the final game of the regular season, and his return sooner than later would be excellent for Dallas; he scored three goals in three games against Colorado in the regular season. Also of note, teams that have taken a 2-0 lead in best-of-seven series have won 86% of the time.
Slowing down the Avs’ stars will be critical in Game 2, which is a sound — if perhaps unrealistic — strategy. With his two goals in Game 1, Nathan MacKinnon became the third player in Avalanche/Nordiques history to score 50 playoff goals, joining Joe Sakic (84) and Peter Forsberg (58). In reaching 60 assists in his 73rd playoff game, Cale Makar became the third-fastest defenseman in NHL history to reach that milestone, behind Bobby Orr (69 GP) and Al MacInnis (71 GP).
This is the fourth straight postseason in which the Oilers and Kings have met in Round 1, and Edmonton has won the previous three series. Will the fourth time be the charm for the Kings?
L.A. went 3-1-0 against Edmonton this season, including shutouts on April 5 and 14. Quinton Byfield was particularly strong in those games, with three goals and an assist. Overall, the Kings were led in scoring this season by Adrian Kempe, with 35 goals and 38 assists. Warren Foegele — who played 22 playoff games for the Oilers in 2024 — had a career-high 24 goals this season.
The Oilers enter the 2025 postseason with 41 playoff series wins, which is the second most among non-Original Six teams (behind the Flyers, with 44). They have been eliminated by the team that won the Stanley Cup in each of the past three postseasons (Panthers 2024, Golden Knights 2023, Avalanche 2022). Edmonton continues to be led by Leon Draisaitl — who won his first Rocket Richard Trophy as the league’s top goal scorer this season — and Connor McDavid, who won the goal-scoring title in 2022-23 and the Conn Smythe Trophy as MVP of the playoffs last year, even though the Oilers didn’t win the Cup.
Arda’s Three Stars of Sunday
For the last several seasons, much of the postseason narrative for the Leafs has been the lack of production from the Core Four. So this was a dream Game 1 against Ottawa for Marner (one goal, two assists), Nylander (one goal, one assist), John Tavares (one goal, one assist) and Matthews (two assists) in Toronto’s 6-2 win over Ottawa.
Stankoven’s two goals in the second period put the game out of reach, with the Canes winning 4-1 in Game 1. Stankoven is the second player in Hurricanes/Whalers history to score twice in his first playoff game with the club (the other was Andrei Svechnikov in Game 1 of the first round in 2019)
Howden had two third-period goals in the Golden Knights’ victory over the Wild in Game 1, including a buzzer-beating empty-netter to make the final score 4-2.
Sunday’s results
Hurricanes 4, Devils 1 Carolina leads 1-0
The Hurricanes came out inspired thanks in part to the raucous home crowd and took a quick lead off the stick of Jalen Chatfield at 2:24 of the first period. Logan Stankoven — who came over in the Mikko Rantanen trade — scored a pair in the second period, and the Canes never looked back. On the Devils’ side, injuries forced Brenden Dillon and Cody Glass out of the game, while Luke Hughes left in the third period but was able to return. Full recap.
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Logan Stankoven’s 2nd goal gives Hurricanes a 3-0 lead
Logan Stankoven notches his second goal of the game to give the Hurricanes a 3-0 lead.
William Nylander zips home a goal to pad the Maple Leafs’ lead
William Nylander zips the puck past the goalie to give the Maple Leafs a 4-1 lead.
Golden Knights 4, Wild 2 Vegas leads 1-0
In Sunday’s nightcap, the two teams played an evenly matched first two periods, as Vegas carried a 2-1 lead into the third. Then, Brett Howden worked his magic, scoring a goal to pad the Knights’ lead 2:28 into that frame, and putting the game to bed with an empty-netter that beat the buzzer. The Wild were led by Matt Boldy, who had two goals, both assisted by Kirill Kaprizov. Full recap.
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Brett Howden buries Wild in Game 1 with buzzer-beating goal
Brett Howden sends the Minnesota Wild packing in Game 1 with an empty-net goal for the Golden Knights in the final second.
LAS VEGAS — NHL linesman Bryan Pancich left Sunday night’s Minnesota–Vegas playoff game 3:37 into the second period after a collision with Golden Knights forward Brett Howden.
Backup official Frederick L’Ecuyer took Pancich’s place in the opening game of the first-round Western Conference series.
Howden was trying to bat down a puck in the offensive zone when he appeared to make contact with Pancich’s head with both by the boards. Howden briefly kneeled down to check on the official before joining his team as the Wild went on an offensive rush.