Bank of England holds interest rate at 4.5% amid trade war uncertainty

Published

4 months ago

March 20, 2025

admin

The Bank of England has kept interest rates on hold as it warned of growing economic uncertainty linked to Donald Trump’s trade war.

The central bank’s monetary policy committee, which meets every six weeks to set borrowing costs, voted 8-1 to keep the bank rate unchanged at 4.5%.

Although the decision was widely expected, the vote was more unified than many assumed.

Just one member of the committee, Swati Dhingra, voted to cut rates by 25 basis points. In what may come as a surprise to some, Catherine Mann, who voted for an outsized 50 basis points cut last month, opted to hold.

The Bank kept its guidance unchanged, pointing to “a gradual and careful approach” to rate cuts, but warned it was prepared to keep borrowing rates higher for longer if wage and price growth continues to persist.

Concerns about constrained supply in the economy – which limits the economy’s ability to grow without sparking inflation – have been playing on policymakers’ minds.

The Bank echoed these concerns again today, alongside warnings about “second-round effects” from higher wages and prices, which could cause inflation to spiral. “This would warrant a relatively tighter monetary path,” it said.

Trade war concerns

Central bankers said they were also contending with an increasingly uncertain global outlook.

In minutes of the meeting published alongside the announcement, the Bank said: “Since the MPC’s previous meeting, global trade policy uncertainty has intensified, and the United States has made a range of tariff announcements, to which some governments have responded.

“Other geopolitical uncertainties have also increased and indicators of financial market volatility have risen globally.”

The Bank was relatively sanguine about the impact of Trump’s tariff policy on the economic growth in the UK but said it could not be certain about the consequences for inflation.

Last night the US Federal Reserve kept its key borrowing rate on hold while downgrading growth forecasts and upgrading its inflation projections.

Central bankers in the UK are also contending with heightened policy uncertainty – both at home and abroad – which means they have been cautious in their approach.

Bank governor Andrew Bailey said: “We have to be quite careful at this point in how we calibrate our response because we’re still seeing a very gradual fall in inflation. We need to accumulate the evidence.”

The Bank started cutting rates in August but, since then, it has reduced the bank rate just three times as policymakers evaluate a mixed economic picture.

Along with fears about supply constraints in the economy, inflation has climbed back above the Bank of England’s 2% target and wage growth continues to outstrip inflation.

Average weekly earnings, including bonuses, did cool from 6.1 % to 5.8% in the three months to January but the figure is still considerably higher than the inflation rate of 3%.

Central bankers keep a close eye on wage growth as they fear wage pressures fuel price pressures in the economy.

Inflationary pressures still exist in the economy but the Bank is balancing that against signs of an economic slowdown.

The economy contracted by 0.1 % at the beginning of the year and the labour market is cooling. Recruiters are warning of a sharper slowdown when the chancellor’s national insurance contribution increases kick in next month.

The Bank of England reiterated this today, warning that business surveys “generally continue to suggest weakness in growth and particularly employment intentions”.

Where to for inflation?

There are also reasons to be sanguine on inflation.

While the headline rate jumped to 3% in January, the increase was driven by one-off factors and base effects, including VAT on private schools and a jump in airfares because of a shift in the timing of the Christmas holidays.

Food inflation also rose but food prices can be volatile.

The Bank is more interested in services inflation, which gives a better indication of domestically generated pressures. This came in at 5%, which was below the Bank’s forecast.

While the headline rate is expected to hit 3.7% by the summer, policymakers have indicated that this is likely to be a bump in the road – driven by a temporary jump in energy prices and rising water and council tax bills from April.

While these will eventually drop out of the inflation rate calculation, that will offer little relief to consumers who will still have to contend with a sustained rise in the price level.

Business

Woman and three teenagers arrested over M&S, Co-op and Harrods cyber attacks

Published

4 hours ago

July 10, 2025

admin

Woman and three teenagers arrested over M&S, Co-op and Harrods cyber attacks

Four people have been arrested by police investigating cyber attacks targeting M&S, Co-op and Harrods.

A 20-year-old woman and two males, both aged 19, and a male aged 17, were detained in London and the West Midlands this morning as part of a National Crime Agency (NCA) operation.

They were arrested at their homes on suspicion of Computer Misuse Act offences, blackmail, money laundering and participating in the activities of an organised crime group.

Money blog: Cost of renting over owning home is a lot

Electronic devices were seized from the suspects and are currently being analysed by forensic experts.

M&S halted online orders, and shelves were empty in shops after the cyber attack on the retailer earlier this year.

The initial hack into the retailer’s systems took place in April through “sophisticated impersonation” involving a third party.

Disruption is expected to continue at the retailer until the end of this month.

The Co-op and Harrods were also subsequently targeted by hackers.

Paul Foster, head of the NCA’s National cybercrime unit described the arrests as a “significant step” in their investigation, which remains “one of the Agency’s highest priorities”.

He added: “…our work continues, alongside partners in the UK and overseas, to ensure those responsible are identified and brought to justice.”

The National Crime Agency is keen to “signal” to “future victims” the “importance of seeking support and engaging with law enforcement”, stating that “the NCA and policing are here to help”.

The NCA has also thanked M&S, Co-op and Harrods for their support in their investigations.

The arrests, which took place early on Thursday morning, were supported by officers from the West Midlands Regional Organised Crime Unit and the East Midlands Special Operations Unit.

Earlier this week, the chairman of M&S told MPs that the hack had been “traumatic” and like an “out-of-body experience”.

Archie Norman, however, refused to be drawn on whether the retailer had paid any ransom.

“We are not discussing any of the details of our interaction with the threat actor, including this subject, but that subject is fully shared with the NCA,” he said.

It is estimated that the cyber attack will cost M&S up to £300m this year.

Days after M&S was attacked, the Co-op was targeted and forced to shut down some internal systems.

Harrods was then hacked, and also had to shut some systems despite its website and shops continuing to operate.

Of those arrested, a 17-year-old British male and a 19-year-old Latvian male were from the West Midlands.

A 19-year-old man was from London and a 20-year-old woman from Staffordshire.

Business

US-listed Ulta Beauty swoops on high street chain Space NK

Published

6 hours ago

July 10, 2025

admin

US-listed Ulta Beauty swoops on high street chain Space NK

A New York-listed company with a valuation of more than $21bn is to snap up Space NK, the British high street beauty chain.

Sky News has learnt that Ulta Beauty, which operates close to 1,500 stores, is on the verge of a deal to buy Space NK from existing owner Manzanita Capital.

Ulta Beauty is understood to have registered an acquisition vehicle at Companies House in recent weeks.

Money blog: Top chef reveals thing he hates about customers

The exact price being paid by Ulta was unclear on Thursday morning, although one source said it was likely to be well in excess of £300m.

Manzanita Capital, a private investment firm, engaged bankers at Raymond James to oversee an auction in April 2024.

The firm has owned Space NK for more than 20 years.

Manzanita has also owned the French perfume house Diptyque and Susanne Kaufmann, an Austrian luxury skincare brand.

Read more from Sky News:
Royal Mail to scrap second-class post on some days
Warning a pub a day to close this year

Founded in 1993 by Nicky Kinnaird, Space NK – which is named after her initials – trades from dozens of stores and employs more than 1,000 people.

It specialises in high-end skincare and cosmetics products.

Manzanita previously explored a sale of Space NK in 2018, hiring Goldman Sachs to handle a strategic review, but opted not to proceed with a deal.

None of Ulta, Manzanita, Space NK and Raymond James could be reached for comment.

Business

Royal Mail to scrap second-class post on Saturdays and some weekdays

Published

8 hours ago

July 10, 2025

admin

Royal Mail to scrap second-class post on Saturdays and some weekdays

Royal Mail is to be allowed to scrap Saturday second-class stamp deliveries, under a series of reforms proposed by the communications regulator.

From 28 July, Royal Mail will also be allowed to deliver second-class letters on alternate weekdays, Ofcom said.

The post will still be delivered within three working days of collection from Monday to Friday.

Money blog: Top chef reveals thing he hates about customers

The proposals had already been raised by Ofcom after a consultation was announced in 2024, and the scale back was proposed early this year.

Royal Mail had repeatedly failed to meet the so-called universal service obligation to deliver post within set periods of time.

Those delivery targets are now being revised downwards.

Rather than having to have 93% of first-class mail delivered the next day, 90% will be legally allowed.

The target for second-class mail deliveries will be lowered from 98.5% to arrive within three working days to 95%.

A review of stamp prices has also been announced by Ofcom amid concerns over affordability, with a consultation set to be launched next year.

It’s good news for Royal Mail and its new owner, the Czech billionaire Daniel Kretinsky. Ofcom estimates the changes will bring savings of between £250m and £425m.

A welcome change?

Unsurprisingly, the company welcomed the announcement.

“It is good news for customers across the UK as it supports the delivery of a reliable, efficient and financially sustainable universal service,” said Martin Seidenberg, the group chief executive of Royal Mail’s parent company, International Distribution Services.

“It follows extensive consultation with thousands of people and businesses to ensure that the postal service better reflects their needs and the realities of how customers send and receive mail today.”

Citizens Advice, however, doubted whether services would improve as a result of the changes.

“Today, Ofcom missed a major opportunity to bring about meaningful change,” said Tom MacInnes, the director of policy at Citizens Advice.

“Pushing ahead with plans to slash services and relax delivery targets in the name of savings won’t automatically make letter deliveries more reliable or improve standards.”

Acknowledging long delays “where letters have taken weeks to arrive”, Ofcom said it set Royal Mail new enforceable targets so 99% of mail has to be delivered no more than two days late.

Changing habits

Less than a third of letters are sent now than 20 years ago, and it is forecast to fall to about a fifth of the letters previously sent.

According to Ofcom research, people want reliability and affordability more than speedy delivery.

Royal Mail has been loss-making in recent years as revenues fell.

In response to Ofcom’s changes, a government spokesperson said: “The public expects a well-run postal service, with letters arriving on time across the country without it costing the earth. With the way people use postal services having changed, it’s right the regulator has looked at this.

“We now need Royal Mail to work with unions and posties to deliver a service that people expect, and this includes maintaining the principle of one price to send a letter anywhere in the UK”.

Ofcom said it has told Royal Mail to hold regular meetings with consumer bodies and industry groups to hear their experiences implementing the changes.