By February 1, 2028, renewables would account for 37.4% of total available installed utility-scale generating capacity – just behind natural gas (40.2%) – with solar and wind making up more than 75% of the installed renewable energy capacity, according to data just released by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC).

In FERC’s latest monthly “Energy Infrastructure Update” report (with data through January 31, 2025), solar and wind combined accounted for more than 98% of new US electrical generating capacity added in January, and solar alone accounted for over two-thirds of that new capacity. Moreover, January was the 17th month in a row in which solar was the largest source of new capacity, according to the SUN DAY Campaign, which reviewed FERC’s latest data.

FERC says 63 “units” of solar totaling 2,945 megawatts (MW) were placed into service in January along with five units of wind (1,301 MW). Combined, they accounted for 98.4% of all new generating capacity added during the month. The balance was provided by natural gas (60 MW) and oil (11 MW).

Solar accounted for 68.2% of all new generating capacity placed into service in January – more than double the solar capacity added a year earlier (1,176 MW).

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Renewables reach one-third of total US generating capacity

New wind accounted for most of the balance (30.1%) of capacity additions. In fact, more new wind capacity was added in January 2025 than was reported as being added during any month in 2024.

Tother, the installed capacities of solar (10.5%) and wind (11.8%) now constitute 22.3% of the US’s total available installed utility-scale generating capacity.

Around 30% of US solar capacity is in small-scale (e.g., rooftop) systems that are not reflected in FERC’s data. Including that additional solar capacity would bring the share provided by solar and wind to more than a quarter of the US total.

If you add in hydropower (7.6%), biomass (1.1%), and geothermal (0.3%), renewables currently claim a 31.3% share of total US utility-scale generating capacity. If small-scale solar capacity is included, renewables are now around one-third of total US generating capacity.

FERC’s 3-year solar + wind addition forecast

FERC reports that net “high probability” additions of solar between February 2025 and January 2028 total 89,033 MW – an amount almost four times the forecast net “high probability” additions for wind (22,312 MW), the second-fastest growing resource.

FERC also foresees net growth for hydropower (1,319 MW) and geothermal (92 MW) but a decrease of 130 MW in biomass capacity. FERC has forecast no new nuclear capacity in its three-year forecast.

Taken together, the net new “high probability” capacity additions by all renewable energy sources would total 112,626 MW, with solar comprising over 79% and wind providing another 20%.  

On the other hand, coal and oil are projected to contract by 24,940 MW and 2,237 MW, respectively. Natural gas capacity would expand by only 455 MW.

If FERC’s current “high probability” additions materialize, by February 1, 2028, solar will account for nearly one-sixth (16.2%) of the nation’s installed utility-scale generating capacity. Wind would provide an additional one-eighth (12.6%) of the total. Thus, each would be greater than coal (12.4%) and substantially more than either nuclear or hydropower (both 7.3%).

In fact, assuming current growth rates continue, the installed capacity of utility-scale solar is likely to surpass coal and wind within the next two years, placing solar in second place for installed generating capacity – behind only natural gas.

Meanwhile, the mix of all renewables is now adding about two percentage points each year to its share of generating capacity. Thus, by February 1, 2028, renewables would account for 37.4% of total available installed utility-scale generating capacity – rapidly approaching that of natural gas (40.2%) – with solar and wind constituting more than three-quarters of the installed renewable energy capacity.

Renewables are on track to exceed natural gas in 3 years

If small-scale solar is factored into FERC’s data, within three years, total US solar capacity (small-scale plus utility-scale) could surpass 325 GW. In turn, the mix of all renewables would then exceed 40% of total installed capacity while the share of natural gas would drop to about 37%.

Moreover, FERC reports that there may be as much as 220,767 MW of net new solar additions in the current three-year pipeline in addition to 68,409 MW of new wind, 9,833 MW of new hydropower, 201 MW of new geothermal, and 39 MW of new biomass. By contrast, the net new natural gas capacity in the three-year pipeline potentially totals just 18,363 MW. Thus, renewables’ share could be even greater by early 2028.

“The Biden era closed out with record-setting solar additions and a rebound in new wind capacity,” noted the SUN DAY Campaign’s executive director, Ken Bossong. “Whether solar, wind, and other renewables can continue that growth under the policies of the Trump administration remains to be seen.” 

Electrek’s Take

This is quite a positive renewables forecast from FERC, despite the hostility for renewables by the incumbent in the White House. For example, Trump just removed solar panels and components from Section 303 of the Defense Production Act (DPA) with yet another executive order. Joe Biden invoked the law in 2022 to help fund clean energy manufacturing through the Inflation Reduction Act, and it worked. 

A new report from the American Council on Renewable Energy (ACORE), which surveyed “top executives from the largest clean energy investors and project sponsors in America, representing over $15 billion in capital investments,” found that federal tax credit uncertainty could cause 84% of investors and 73% of developers to decrease their activity in clean energy. They want long-term certainty in order to continue to invest. Will they get it? I’m not holding my breath. But renewables have a whole lot of momentum and advantages that fossil fuels don’t. Let me know your thoughts about renewables’ future under the Trump administration in the comments below.

Read more: Renewables provided 90% of new US capacity in 2024 – FERC

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