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Tax agencies will double down on crypto before Bitcoin hits M

Opinion by: Robin Singh, CEO of Koinly

In the race between regulation and Bitcoin (BTC) all-time highs, there is no doubt tax agencies will double down on their crypto-tracking systems well before Bitcoin hits $1 million.

Crypto investors shouldn’t become complacent or assume they can skate by until the million-dollar price tag. In addition to their laser focus on the future, they are becoming skilled at scrutinizing the past. Many jurisdictions have the power to backtrack on previous years, and if tax authorities realize how much they’ve missed, they won’t just let it slide…

This could spell trouble for misinformed Bitcoiners who have already begun spending their profits.

Tax agencies will catch up through automated data-sharing

Governments are still in this weird gray area where crypto tax rules can change anytime. Take the US Internal Revenue Service (IRS), for example. In a shock move, as of 2025, the IRS now mandates that investors use the wallet-by-wallet cost tracking method, no longer allowing the universal wallet method. The latter is far more labor-intensive than the former but hands the IRS more data it craves.

Though automated data sharing with tax agencies might not be as extensive as stock market data, it’s only a matter of time before crypto data from centralized exchanges catches up. Several crypto exchanges, including Coinbase and Binance.US, issue Forms 1099-MISC to the IRS for users with more than $600 in rewards in a financial year.

An end to the honesty system

Then there’s the global village challenge, with each tax agency worldwide taking its own approach. For instance, the Australian Tax Office (ATO) automates stock cost and sale reporting through pre-filled data for taxpayers. Crypto data isn’t, however, included in the pre-fill. 

Instead, any activity on a centralized exchange triggers an alert on the taxpayer’s tax return, indicating that the ATO is aware of the crypto activity. This leaves it up to the taxpayer to be honest about whether they’ve made capital gains or losses during the financial year.

Whether you’ve made any sales or simply bought crypto, consistent alerts over several years without reporting from the taxpayer will likely increase the risk of an audit.

Worldwide, the honesty system is on its deathbed. Once tax authorities have advanced their crypto monitoring systems, they can retroactively review previous years if they choose to. The ATO already has a reasonably intensive data-matching program with centralized exchanges in the jurisdiction.

If you value your sanity, a multi-year audit of your crypto portfolio is the last thing you want to deal with. Every tax authority is catching up, and accountants want to protect clients from getting caught out as compliance measures become more sophisticated.

Tax authorities to strengthen cooperation in the coming years

Over the coming years, we should expect to see an increase in global tax data sharing between jurisdictions, something we’re already starting to see. In March 2024, Australia’s and Indonesia’s governments reached an agreement to exchange tax information, with one of the key focuses being the use of crypto.

A few months earlier, in November 2023, 47 national governments, including the United Kingdom, Brazil, Germany and Japan, committed to the Crypto-Asset Reporting Framework (CARF) and planned to activate exchange agreements for information sharing by 2027.

Recent: Indian crypto holders face 70% tax penalty on undisclosed gains

Don’t operate under the assumption that decentralized finance and non-fungible tokens are flying under the radar, either. Tax authorities are fully aware of the gains made on decentralized exchanges. Agencies like the IRS have already introduced guidance to collect user data from non-custodial brokers, though this has been delayed until 2027. 

While tracking might be more challenging, and some investors believe their assets are untraceable until they are moved to centralized exchanges, tax authorities are already catching on. It’s not a “crypto industry knows best” situation. Tax authorities are bringing in more experts from the crypto space to help them understand how people might try to bypass the system. 

Opinion by: Robin Singh, CEO of Koinly.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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Sir Keir Starmer to defend budget amid claims Rachel Reeves ‘lied’ about public finances

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Sir Keir Starmer to defend budget amid claims Rachel Reeves 'lied' about public finances

Sir Keir Starmer will deliver a speech today defending the decisions the government made in the budget, following criticisms of sweeping tax rises and accusations the chancellor lied to the country about the state of public finances.

The prime minister is expected to set out how the budget, which saw £26bn of tax rises imposed across the economy, “moves forward the government’s programme of national renewal”, and set “the right economic course” for Britain, Downing Street says.

He will also confirm that ministers will try again to reform the “broken” welfare system, after Labour MPs forced the government to U-turn on its plans to narrow the eligibility for Personal Independence Payments (PIP) earlier this year.

Sir Keir Starmer will give a speech later defending last week's budget. Pic: Reuters
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Sir Keir Starmer will give a speech later defending last week’s budget. Pic: Reuters

‘Of course I didn’t’ lie about public finances, says Reeves

“We have to confront the reality that our welfare state is trapping people, not just in poverty, but out of work – young people especially. And that is a poverty of ambition,” Sir Keir will say.

“And so while we will invest in apprenticeships and make sure every young person without a job has a guaranteed offer of training or work, we must also reform the welfare state itself – that is what renewal demands.”

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Sky’s Ed Conway looks at the aftermath of the budget and explains who the winners and losers are

The prime minister will add: “This is not about propping up a broken status quo. Nor is it because we want to look somehow politically ‘tough’. The Tories played that game and the welfare bill went up by £88bn. They left children too poor to eat and young people too ill to work. A total failure.”

More on Budget 2025

Instead, he will argue it is about “potential”, saying: “If you are ignored that early in your career, if you’re not given the support you need to overcome your mental health issues, or if you are simply written off because you’re neurodivergent or disabled, then it can trap you in a cycle of worklessness and dependency for decades, which costs the country money, is bad for our productivity, but most importantly of all – costs the country opportunity and potential.

“And any Labour Party worthy of the name cannot ignore that. That is why we have asked Alan Milburn on the whole issue of young people, inactivity and work. We need to remove the incentives which hold back the potential of our young people.”

The announcement will come after the Conservative opposition described the budget as one for “benefits street”, following the chancellor’s decision to lift the two-child benefit cap from April, at a cost of £3bn.

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Prime Minister defends the budget

‘Government must go further and faster on growth’

The prime minister is also expected to launch a staunch defence of the budget overall, saying it will bear down on the cost of living through measures like money off energy bills and frozen rail fares; increase economic stability; and protect investment in public services and infrastructure that will drive economic growth.

He will argue that “economic growth is beating the forecasts”, but that the government must go “further and faster” to encourage it.

He will also reiterate his vow to scrap regulation across the economy, which he will argue is not only pro-business, but also a way to deal with the cost of living.

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How will your personal finances change following the budget announced by the chancellor?

“Rooting out excessive costs in every corner of the economy is an essential step to lower the cost of living for good, as well as promoting more dynamic markets for business,” the prime minister will say.

He will confirm reforms to the building of nuclear power plants, after the government’s nuclear regulatory taskforce found that “pointless gold-plating, unnecessary red-tape and well-intentioned, but fundamentally misguided environmental regulation had made Britain the most expensive place to build nuclear power”.

“We urgently need to correct this,” the prime minister will say.

Business secretary Peter Kyle will be tasked with applying the same deregulatory approach to major infrastructure schemes and to accelerate the implementation of Labour’s industrial strategy.

In response, Tory shadow chancellor Sir Mel Stride said: “It is frankly laughable to hear the prime minister say Rachel Reeves’s Benefits Street budget has put the country on the right course and that he wants to fix the welfare system.

“His chancellor has just hiked taxes by £26bn to pay for a welfare splurge, penalising people who work hard and making them pay for those who don’t work at all. And she misrepresented why she was doing it, claiming there was a fiscal black hole to fill that she knew didn’t exist.

“Labour’s leadership have repeatedly shown they lack the backbone to tackle welfare and instead are just acting to placate their left-wing backbenchers.”

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Rachel Reeves tells Sky News she did not lie about the state of the public finances

Chancellor accused of ‘lying’

Sir Mel is referring to the chancellor’s speech on 4 November in which she laid the ground for tax rises due to the decision by the independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) to review and downgrade productivity over recent years, at a cost of £16bn, which led to a black hole in the public finances.

But the OBR revealed on Friday that it had told the Treasury days earlier that there was actually a budget surplus of £4.2bn, leading to outrage and claims that she misled the country about the state of the public finances.

Rachel Reeves was asked directly by Sky’s Trevor Phillips if she lied, and she replied: “Of course I didn’t.”

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Why did Reeves make the situation sound ‘so bleak’?

She said: “I said in that speech that I wanted to achieve three things in the budget – tackling the cost of living, which is why I took £150 off of energy bills and froze prescription charges and rail fares.

“I wanted to continue to cut NHS waiting lists, which is why I protected NHS spending. And I wanted to bring the debt and the borrowing down, which is one of the reasons why I increased the headroom.

“£4bn of headroom would not have been enough, and it would not give the Bank of England space to continue to cut interest rates.”

Ms Reeves also said: “In the context of a downgrade in our productivity, which cost £16bn, I needed to increase taxes, and I was honest and frank about that in the speech that I gave at the beginning of November.”

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Badenoch says Rachel Reeves should resign

But Tory leader Kemi Badenoch said: “I think the chancellor has been doing a terrible job. She’s made a mess of the economy, and […] she has told lies. This is a woman who, in my view, should be resigning.”

Report due on OBR breach

The tumultuous run-up to the 26 November budget culminated in the OBR accidentally publishing its assessment of the chancellor’s measures 45 minutes before the speech began, in what was an unprecedented breach of budget security.

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The chair of the OBR, Richard Hughes, apologised for the “error”, and announced an investigation into how it happened.

The chancellor has said that she retains confidence in him, despite the “serious breach of protocol”, and confirmed to Trevor that the investigation report will be delivered to her on Monday, although it is not clear when it will be published.

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China reaffirms crypto ban after noticing ‘speculation has resurfaced’

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China reaffirms crypto ban after noticing ‘speculation has resurfaced’

China’s central bank has flagged stablecoins as a risk and has promised to refresh its crackdown on crypto trading, which it has banned since 2021.

The People’s Bank of China said on Saturday, after a meeting with 12 other agencies, that “virtual currency speculation has resurfaced” due to various factors, posing new challenges for risk control. 

“Virtual currencies do not have the same legal status as fiat currencies, lack legal tender status, and should not and cannot be used as currency in the market,” the bank said, according to a translation of its statement. 

“Virtual currency-related business activities constitute illegal financial activities.”

China’s central bank banned crypto trading and mining in 2021, citing a need to curb crime and claiming that crypto posed a risk to the financial system. 

Bank says stablecoins of concern

China’s central bank highlighted stablecoins as a particular concern, stating that the tokens weren’t meeting legal requirements and were being used in criminal activities.

“Stablecoins are a form of virtual currency, and currently cannot effectively meet requirements for customer identification and Anti-Money Laundering, posing a risk of being used for illegal activities such as money laundering, fundraising fraud, and illegal cross-border fund transfers,” the bank said.

China, Peoples Bank of China, Stablecoin
The People’s Bank of China, headquartered in Beijing (pictured), noted stablecoins as a concern at an inter-agency meeting on Saturday. Source: Wikimedia

The bank said it would “persistently crack down on illegal financial activities” related to crypto to “maintain the stability of the economic and financial order.”

Related: South Korea targets sub-$680 crypto transfers in sweeping AML crackdown

The 13 agencies that attended the meeting stated that they would “deepen coordination and cooperation” in tracking down crypto users by strengthening information sharing and enhancing monitoring capabilities.

Reuters reported on Wednesday that China had the third-highest share of Bitcoin (BTC) mining, with its market share reaching 14% by the end of October.

In August, China’s financial regulators reportedly instructed brokers to cancel seminars and stop promoting research on stablecoins over concerns that it could be exploited as a tool for fraudulent activities.

Meanwhile, Hong Kong opened the doors to licensing stablecoin issuers in July, but some tech companies suspended plans to launch stablecoins in the region after Chinese regulators reportedly intervened to pause the offerings.

Magazine: Koreans ‘pump’ alts after Upbit hack, China Bitcoin mining surge: Asia Express