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The chancellor’s update on the economy next week is not going to be an emergency budget in its truest sense. But it will be a moment when the sirens flash red.

It’s not an emergency budget because the chancellor, as our listeners will know from our interview with Rachel Reeves on Electoral Dysfunction a couple of weeks ago, is not going to make tax changes (such a move would tip it into budget territory because it would turn the spring statement into a major fiscal event).

But it looks set to be a red siren moment for a chancellor. Having staked her reputation on growing the economy and no return to austerity, she is going to have to announce a downgrade to growth forecasts and could also unveil the biggest spending squeeze on Whitehall in years.

The welfare cuts this week were just the starter – the opposition are going to have a field day.

Watch out in the next few days for a “re-education” as the Treasury tries to frame the arguments Reeves will get in at the despatch box on Wednesday.

You’ll hear about how the “world has changed”, with global uncertainly knocking growth and forcing countries to invest more in defence.

This is all part of the chancellor seeking to distance sluggish growth from her own budget decisions last October (the Conservatives will shout back jobs tax – their rebranding of the Reeves’ £25bn hike in employers’ national insurance contributions).

More on Rachel Reeves

You will also be hearing more about the need to go “further and faster” on the economy (the bonfire of quangos, planning rules, regulations and drive for ‘efficiency savings’).

But whatever arguments she makes ahead of time won’t dent the sharp inhalation of breath as growth is downgraded and the chancellor outlines what’s likely to be billions in cuts to the departmental budgets in an effort to plug the black hole in the public finances that has emerged from slower growth and rising debt repayments.

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What to expect from the spring statement

Economists expect the deteriorating outlook to eat up the £9.9bn of headroom she had in order to meet her own fiscal rules in the October budget.

The Resolution Foundation think-tank estimates that the current account balance has shifted from that £9.9bn surplus to a deficit of around £4.4bn. Many Labour MPs think Reeves should just loosen her fiscal rules (she has legislated that day-to-day spending must be funded from tax receipts, not debt, by 2029/30), but she told me on our Electoral Dysfunction podcast that is something she will not do.

Neither, I hear, is she prepared to just let the public finances sit in the red. But getting back to black is going to involve a massive spending squeeze.

So watch for reductions in Whitehall departmental budgets later in the parliament.

The government has already earmarked £5bn in savings from the benefits bill by 2029/30 and could whittle back projected rises in departmental spending towards the back end of parliament.

Read more:
What is PIP?
Key welfare changes explained

Departmental spending is set to rise by an average of 1.3% from 2026-27 onwards. If the chancellor reduces that, she could save billions. But the headlines will scream cuts, especially for those departments which don’t have protected budgets and which could face real terms reductions.

It’s going to be difficult and the government is braced for cries of austerity 2.0, which is frustrating officials who are quick to point out that the government has poured billions more into public spending after executing the biggest tax and spend budget in a generation.

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Benefits cuts explained

“This is not a return to austerity, which was about real terms cuts,” said one figure. “We will be finding savings and squeezing spending but the overall level of spending will still be going up.”

But it is tense. As she looks for savings, the chancellor has asked cabinet ministers to identify 5% efficiency savings from their departments and also identify 20% of the lowest priority spending. In private, ministers are protesting about cuts.

Read more:
What could be announced in Rachel Reeves’ spring statement?
What is the spring statement – and what do you need to know?

Labour peer Harriet Harman told the Electoral Dysfunction podcast that identifying such big levels of savings is going to cause consternation.

“As somebody who was told to do 2% and felt even that was incredibly difficult, then I should imagine that it is causing consternation.

“It is a very, very difficult exercise. But, you know, at the end of the day, we’re in difficult circumstances.

“We’ve made a promise to the electorate about how are we going to run the economy, and that’s what we’re going to do.

“And Labour MPs, I think, you know, are very resolved on this. They know the situation’s difficult. They know the government has got a set of principles that they’re applying to it, and they’ll be supportive of the government on this.

“So one thing we have got is political stability on this. There won’t be any, you know, screeching handbrake U-turns. There won’t be massive revolts and there won’t be cabinet splits either.”

The government hopes protest will be dialled down as it dials up talk about ‘reform’ and how the government can rewire Whitehall in a way that money is trained on the frontline and services can be maintained even as budgets are whittled back.

The biggest symbol of that so far being the prime minister’s announcement last week that he was abolishing NHS England and folding the oversight of the NHS back into the Health department – which the government says could save up to £500m a year.

But even if Harriet Harman is right on the would-be rebels and ministers have their arguments honed, a major downgrade of growth forecasts and a spending squeeze from a government that told voters it would be doing the exact opposite in the run-up to the election is set to be a very difficult day indeed.

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Mum left ‘looking over’ shoulder as son’s killer still walking free months after murder 

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Mum left 'looking over' shoulder as son's killer still walking free months after murder 

The mother of a teenage boy who was shot dead has urged the public to come forward with any information which could help find her son’s killer eight months on. 

Rene Graham was just 15 years old when he was killed in Emslie Horniman’s Pleasance Park, Ladbroke Grove, on 21 July 2024.

He had been attending a warm-up event for the Notting Hill Carnival with friends. But the family fun day turned into tragedy when Rene was gunned down in front of hundreds of revellers.

Rene Graham. Pic: PA
Image:
Rene Graham. Pic: PA

“It’s broken, shattered my life… It’s killing me on the inside,” says his mother Janay John-Francois, who says her son was a “vibrant” teenager, with the “biggest heart”.

“I’m fuming about it. I’m fuming because right now it seems I’m not going to get justice for my son,” says Ms John-Francois.

“How does that happen?” his mother asks. “In broad daylight with over a thousand people in that small park?… it’s beyond me.”

Janay John-Francois and Rene
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Janay John-Francois and Rene

Ms John-Francois says the grieving process cannot begin until she has answers and she will not feel safe until her son’s killer is caught.

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“I go down that road and I am looking over my shoulder. I don’t know who it could be, and that messes up your head. Because you are thinking, is my family safe? Do they know who I am?” says Ms John-Francois.

“You can’t live like that,” she adds.

The Metropolitan Police says it has issued four separate police appeals and continues to appeal for witnesses to come forward with information.

But it says the response so far has been “minimal”.

Read more from Sky News:
How much could Heathrow closure cost the UK economy?

Germany approves a change in fiscal rules to boost defence spending

“We know from reviewing CCTV from inside the park that many people were filming on the day, and these videos could hold crucial information for us,” says DCI Alison Foxwell, who is leading the investigation.

“We urge anybody with footage to contact police on 101 with the reference 01/621769/24 as soon as possible,” she adds.

Janay John-Francois
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Ms John-Francois

But Ms John-Francois holds others accountable.

For much of his life, Rene had been in care.

His mother admits she wasn’t always able to support her child in the ways he needed.

“I put my hands up and say that I was young, I was 15. I could have done a lot of things differently,” says Ms John-Francois.

Ms John-Francois
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Ms John-Francois showing pictures of Rene

But she says she believes her son was not properly protected when he was removed from her care. And this, she says, is unforgivable.

“They weren’t as involved as they should have been,” Ms John-Francois says.

“He had no structure in his life. No school, nothing for five years… and down to all of that, he ended up where he was, living the life he was living.”

“They failed him and I need them to take responsibility for that,” she adds.

A spokesperson for Westminster City Council said: “We do our best in complicated circumstances to help young people as they grow up. We supported Rene over several years and every decision the council made was driven by Rene’s welfare and with his family’s involvement.”

They added: “The loss of a child, in such horrific circumstances, is impossible to imagine and we continue to express our deepest sympathy to Rene’s mother and his whole family.”

But Ms John-Francois says she does not want or need sympathy. Instead, she says she wants to ensure other children at not “failed” in similar ways.

More importantly, she wants her son’s killer found and justice brought.

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Heathrow shutdown is embarrassing at best – but at worst it points to serious vulnerabilities in UK infrastructure

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Heathrow shutdown is embarrassing at best - but at worst it points to serious vulnerabilities in UK infrastructure

An electrical substation fire and an entire airport shut down – with over 1,000 flights cancelled, others rerouted worldwide, and 200,000 passengers affected by the disruption.

The Heathrow closure on Friday really highlights the ‘critical’ part of critical national infrastructure (CNI) – the systems and facilities that are essential for society to function.

At best it’s an embarrassment. At worst, it points to serious vulnerabilities across the country that could be exploited by bad actors.

Heathrow first.

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Heathrow needs a lot of power, the equivalent of a small town, and the bulk of this is supplied by a dedicated connection at the North Hyde substation – reflecting Heathrow’s critical status.

But that also appears to be the problem – because Heathrow requires so much power, having a second dedicated connection would likely be prohibitively expensive, especially for the low probability scenario of such a catastrophic fire. This is the first time this has happened in decades, after all.

“Fires like this are not common at all,” said Dr Robin Preece, a reader in future power systems at the University of Manchester. “If it just broke down without catching fire… you might never have noticed anything as we have sufficient alternative routes for the electricity to follow.”

Photo taken with permission from the social media site X, formerly Twitter, posted by @JoselynEMuirhe1 of the fire at Hayes electrical substation. More than 1,300 flights to and from Heathrow Airport will be disrupted on Friday due to the closure of the airport following the fire. Issue date: Friday March 21, 2025.
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The fire at the North Hyde electrical substation. Pic: @JoselynEMuirhe1

But uncommon doesn’t mean impossible – and when infrastructure is critical, it’s supposed to be protected.

MI5 in charge of critical infrastructure protection

The organisation ultimately responsible is MI5, through the National Protective Security Authority. This lists 13 national infrastructure sectors, from chemicals to nuclear, emergency services to food, space to water.

It’s a lot to look after – this map shows just some of the sites that would be considered CNI. Airports and power stations. Or the tubes that supply us with energy (gas and fuel pipelines) and internet (undersea cables).

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Many of those risks are collected in the National Risk Register. This plots the likelihood and the impact of a risk.

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Measuring risk chances and impact

So an accidental fire or explosion at an onshore fuel pipeline is estimated to have less than a 0.2% chance of happening in the next two years but would have only a “moderate” impact, defined as between 41-200 casualties and/or hundreds of millions of pounds in economic losses.

A civil nuclear accident has a similar probability but would have a “catastrophic” impact, defined as the loss of more than 1,000 lives and/or an economic cost of tens of billions of pounds. Pandemics also meet the catastrophic impact threshold.

A regional failure of the electricity network, one due perhaps to “a specific power substation”, is listed as having a 1% to 5% chance of happening every two years, and a moderate impact. But this is what happened to Heathrow – and the impact doesn’t appear moderate at all.

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Read more:
How Heathrow closure ruined travel plans
What we know about shutdown as flights grounded

The North Hyde electrical substation which caught fire. 
Pic: PA
Image:
The electrical substation in west London. Pic: PA

Catalogue of vulnerabilities

The National Risk Register is sensible planning but it’s also a catalogue of vulnerabilities.

Accidents do happen, but so do attacks. It can be hard to tell the difference – and that’s the point of what are known as “grey zone” attacks.

For example, undersea cables keep unfortunately being cut, whether in the Baltic Sea or the waters around Taiwan.

Taiwan has accused China of doing this deliberately. China responded by saying that damage to undersea cables is a “common maritime accident”.

In this photo released by the Taiwan Coast Guard, Taiwanese Coast Guard vessels prepare to board Togolese-flagged cargo ship Hongtai suspected of severing an undersea communications cable in waters between its main island's west coast and the outlying Penghu islands early Tuesday, Feb 25, 2025. (Taiwan Coast Guard via AP)
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Taiwanese coastguard in February prepares to board a cargo ship suspected of severing an undersea communications cable. Pic: AP

“Malicious actors see opportunities and vulnerabilities”, Marco Wyss, Professor of International History and Security at Lancaster University, told Sky News.

“And if you showcase vulnerabilities to such an extent as today, even if it wasn’t a malicious actor, it can give them some ideas.”

Additional reporting by Sophia Massam, junior digital investigations journalist

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Ida Lock: Baby girl died from brain injury because midwives failed to provide basic care, coroner rules

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Ida Lock: Baby girl died from brain injury because midwives failed to provide basic care, coroner rules

A baby girl died from a serious brain injury because midwives failed to provide basic medical care, a coroner has concluded.

Ida Lock, who lived for just seven days, was born at the Royal Lancaster Infirmary in November 2019 but suffered a brain injury caused by a lack of oxygen.

She was transferred to intensive care at Royal Preston Hospital’s neonatal unit where she died a week later on 16 November 2019.

Ever since her death, Ida’s grieving parents, Ryan Lock and Sarah Robinson, have had to fight for answers.

Mr Lock said the hospital’s trust “put up a huge wall” when they tried to find out what had happened.

Ms Robinson says she was made to feel like she was to blame.

“It was was awful. It was so tough. My world had shattered, and I couldn’t figure out what had gone wrong, what I’d missed.”

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An initial investigation carried out by the University Hospitals of Morecambe Bay NHS Trust found no issues with her delivery.

However, in April 2020, a report from the independent Healthcare Safety Investigation Branch (HSIB) identified numerous failings in the care of Ida which contributed to her death, the hearing at County Hall, Preston, had previously heard.

Ryan and Ida Lock. Pic: PA
Image:
Ryan and Ida Lock. Pic: PA

Ms Robinson says: “That’s the hurt, because that time that we’ve taken to fight and get these answers. And all along people had these answers, people knew, but they didn’t give them to us them.”

Midwives had failed to identify an abnormally slow foetal heart rate after Ms Robinson attended in early labour and then following birth there was ineffective resuscitation, the HSIB concluded.

This trust has faced serious criticism in the past.

A review into maternity care at Morecambe Bay in 2015 found 11 babies and one mother had died due to poor care.

The report’s author, Dr Bill Kirkup, gave evidence at the inquest and told Sky News it is “unforgivable” lessons have not been learnt.

He also chaired an investigation into maternity services in East Kent and found repeated and significant failings.

“These are not problems of isolated units, and it’s not a particular rogue unit that we’re talking about here. It’s a very widespread failure of culture in maternity services,” said Dr Kirkup.

Ida Lock died seven days after she was born. Pic: PA
Image:
Ida Lock died seven days after she was born. Pic: PA

The national maternity inspection programme carried out by the healthcare regulator the Care Quality Commission (CQC) assessed over 130 units.

It gave ratings for safety and found 65% rated either “inadequate” or “requires improvement”.

Mr Lock believes there must be a change in culture.

He said: “There needs to be more accountability. If people feel they can get away with being deceitful and covering up the truth, then they’re going to continue doing that.”

Ms Robinson has since had another baby daughter but says her mental health has suffered.

“It’s changed me as a person. Five years on, the anxiety, the stress, it’s just constant. No one was open and honest with us. No parent should have to go through that.”

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Ryan Lock and Sarah Robinson
Image:
Ryan Lock and Sarah Robinson

The family scattered Ida’s ashes on Morecambe Beach, close to their home.

Mr Lock says they often walk along this small stretch of sand which they call “Ida’s beach”.

He said: “She’s always going to be in our hearts, and that’s what’s driven us to continue, to keep going. We owe it to her.”

Delivering a narrative conclusion following the inquest on Friday, HM Senior Coroner for Lancashire, Dr James Adeley, said: “Ida was a normal child whose death was caused by a lack of oxygen during her delivery that occurred due to the gross failure of the three midwives attending her to provide basic medical care to deliver Ida urgently when it was apparent she was in distress.”

He added her death was contributed to by the lead midwife’s “wholly incompetent” failure to provide basic neonatal resuscitation for Ida during the first three-and-half minutes of her life, which further contributed to the infant’s brain damage.

Dr Adeley identified eight missed opportunities by midwives to alter Ida’s clinical course.

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