UK growth forecast set for major downgrade as chancellor faces difficult spring statement
The chancellor’s update on the economy next week is not going to be an emergency budget in its truest sense. But it will be a moment when the sirens flash red.
It’s not an emergency budget because the chancellor, as our listeners will know from our interview with Rachel Reeves on Electoral Dysfunction a couple of weeks ago, is not going to make tax changes (such a move would tip it into budget territory because it would turn the spring statement into a major fiscal event).
But it looks set to be a red siren moment for a chancellor. Having staked her reputation on growing the economy and no return to austerity, she is going to have to announce a downgrade to growth forecasts and could also unveil the biggest spending squeeze on Whitehall in years.
The welfare cuts this week were just the starter – the opposition are going to have a field day.
Watch out in the next few days for a “re-education” as the Treasury tries to frame the arguments Reeves will get in at the despatch box on Wednesday.
You’ll hear about how the “world has changed”, with global uncertainly knocking growth and forcing countries to invest more in defence.
This is all part of the chancellor seeking to distance sluggish growth from her own budget decisions last October (the Conservatives will shout back jobs tax – their rebranding of the Reeves’ £25bn hike in employers’ national insurance contributions).
You will also be hearing more about the need to go “further and faster” on the economy (the bonfire of quangos, planning rules, regulations and drive for ‘efficiency savings’).
But whatever arguments she makes ahead of time won’t dent the sharp inhalation of breath as growth is downgraded and the chancellor outlines what’s likely to be billions in cuts to the departmental budgets in an effort to plug the black hole in the public finances that has emerged from slower growth and rising debt repayments.
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What to expect from the spring statement
Economists expect the deteriorating outlook to eat up the £9.9bn of headroom she had in order to meet her own fiscal rules in the October budget.
The Resolution Foundation think-tank estimates that the current account balance has shifted from that £9.9bn surplus to a deficit of around £4.4bn. Many Labour MPs think Reeves should just loosen her fiscal rules (she has legislated that day-to-day spending must be funded from tax receipts, not debt, by 2029/30), but she told me on our Electoral Dysfunction podcast that is something she will not do.
Neither, I hear, is she prepared to just let the public finances sit in the red. But getting back to black is going to involve a massive spending squeeze.
So watch for reductions in Whitehall departmental budgets later in the parliament.
The government has already earmarked £5bn in savings from the benefits bill by 2029/30 and could whittle back projected rises in departmental spending towards the back end of parliament.
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Departmental spending is set to rise by an average of 1.3% from 2026-27 onwards. If the chancellor reduces that, she could save billions. But the headlines will scream cuts, especially for those departments which don’t have protected budgets and which could face real terms reductions.
It’s going to be difficult and the government is braced for cries of austerity 2.0, which is frustrating officials who are quick to point out that the government has poured billions more into public spending after executing the biggest tax and spend budget in a generation.
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Benefits cuts explained
“This is not a return to austerity, which was about real terms cuts,” said one figure. “We will be finding savings and squeezing spending but the overall level of spending will still be going up.”
But it is tense. As she looks for savings, the chancellor has asked cabinet ministers to identify 5% efficiency savings from their departments and also identify 20% of the lowest priority spending. In private, ministers are protesting about cuts.
Read more:
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Labour peer Harriet Harman told the Electoral Dysfunction podcast that identifying such big levels of savings is going to cause consternation.
“As somebody who was told to do 2% and felt even that was incredibly difficult, then I should imagine that it is causing consternation.
“It is a very, very difficult exercise. But, you know, at the end of the day, we’re in difficult circumstances.
“We’ve made a promise to the electorate about how are we going to run the economy, and that’s what we’re going to do.
“And Labour MPs, I think, you know, are very resolved on this. They know the situation’s difficult. They know the government has got a set of principles that they’re applying to it, and they’ll be supportive of the government on this.
“So one thing we have got is political stability on this. There won’t be any, you know, screeching handbrake U-turns. There won’t be massive revolts and there won’t be cabinet splits either.”
The government hopes protest will be dialled down as it dials up talk about ‘reform’ and how the government can rewire Whitehall in a way that money is trained on the frontline and services can be maintained even as budgets are whittled back.
The biggest symbol of that so far being the prime minister’s announcement last week that he was abolishing NHS England and folding the oversight of the NHS back into the Health department – which the government says could save up to £500m a year.
But even if Harriet Harman is right on the would-be rebels and ministers have their arguments honed, a major downgrade of growth forecasts and a spending squeeze from a government that told voters it would be doing the exact opposite in the run-up to the election is set to be a very difficult day indeed.
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UK
Nasen Saadi: Criminology student with ‘grievance against women’ jailed for murdering personal trainer on beach
A criminology student who murdered one woman and attempted to murder another on a beach in Bournemouth has been jailed for life, with a minimum term of 39 years.
Nasen Saadi, 21, from Croydon, fatally stabbed personal trainer Amie Gray, 34, 10 times as she sat beside a fire on Durley Chine Beach in Dorset on the evening of 24 May.
Her friend Leanne Miles, who was sitting next to her on the beach, suffered 20 knife injuries but survived the attack.
Saadi was found guilty of murder and attempted murder after a trial at Winchester Crown Court in December. On Friday, he was sentenced to life in prison.
In sentencing, the judge Mrs Justice Cutts, said Saadi had denied his guilt because he wanted the “notoriety of a trial” and had a “complete lack of remorse”.
Nasen Saadi. Pic: Dorset Police
She said: “The clear evidence is you planned to kill and went to Bournemouth to do so.
“I am satisfied that you chose Amie Gray and Leanne Miles because you have a grievance against society as a whole and women in particular.”
She added: “It seems you have felt humiliated and rejected for any advances you have made towards girls, which has led over time to a deeply suppressed rage towards society and women in particular.”
The judge said the attack was “utterly senseless” and added: “I have no doubt you are an extremely dangerous young man and will remain so.”
The trial previously heard how Saadi, who was studying criminology at Greenwich University in London, was asked by one of his lecturers: “You’re not planning a murder, are you?”
He had asked tutors questions about self-defence for murder and how long DNA stays behind.
Saadi, who had collected knives and researched locations to carry out the killing, told detectives he had an interest in true crime, unsolved cases, and horror movies.
The court heard he used the name “Ninja Killer” on his Snapchat account and also had the username “NSkills” on his computer.
Amie Gray (left) and her wife Sian. Pic: Handout/Dorset Police
During the trial, the jury was played CCTV footage the prosecution said showed Saadi walking along the beach promenade.
They also heard a CCTV audio recording of screaming and a male voice at around 11.39pm – the time of the attack.
Nasen Saadi walking along Durley Chine Beach in Bournemouth, and a map of the location
A recording of a 999 call made by Ms Miles was played to the court in which she was heard crying in pain.
The 39-year-old told the operator: “I have been stabbed loads of times. Oh my God, I am getting dizzy, please hurry up, please hurry up.”
She continues: “I am bleeding everywhere, I have been stabbed loads of times.”
CCTV still of Saadi. Pic: CPS
The defendant, who chose not to give evidence, admitted visiting Bournemouth but denied the offences.
He told police he might have “blacked out” and had no memory of the period that included the attacks.
Amie Gray. Pic: Handout/Dorset Police
In a police interview shown in court, Saadi said: “I am not responsible and I have no reason to attack someone for no reason.”
Saadi, who was wearing a blue sweatshirt and glasses, showed no emotion as the sentence was read out.
He pleaded guilty to failing to provide his mobile phone code to police.
In a victim impact statement read to the court, Mrs Gray’s wife, Sian Gray, said the death would “haunt” her forever.
She said: “At the age of 36, I should not have to hold my deceased wife’s cold hand, nor should my daughter have to say goodbye and grieve over a coffin.
Read more:
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“Amie’s beautiful life has now been reduced to forever being remembered as ‘the murder victim’.”
Mrs Gray’s mother Sharon Macklin said in a statement her daughter was “an amazing, funny, kind and energetic soul. She had a big smile and a loud laugh, and when she entered the room, it filled with laughter, and her presence couldn’t be ignored.
“She was beautiful inside and out. Even if life wasn’t great for her, she would always find the time to help others.”
A man has been sentenced to life in prison with a minimum term of 34 years for murdering a pensioner and dismembering his body with a hacksaw.
Warning: This article contains details that some people might find distressing.
Marcin Majerkiewicz, 42, bludgeoned Stuart Everett with a hammer at the house they shared in Salford, Greater Manchester, overnight between 27 and 28 March last year.
He used a hacksaw to dismember the 67-year-old, cutting him into 27 pieces, before taking the body parts in plastic bags on bus journeys across Salford and Manchester to dump the evidence.
Bodyworn video footage of Majerkiewicz’s arrest. Pic: Greater Manchester Police
Police say the Polish father-of-two had an obsession with gore and gruesome horror, as well as a tattoo of slasher-film character Jason from the horror franchise Friday the 13th.
Majerkiewicz denied responsibility for the killing but offered no evidence in his defence. His motive remains unclear.
Jurors convicted him of murder following a three-week trial at Manchester Crown Court. On Friday, he was jailed at the same court for life with a minimum term of 34 years.
Trial judge Mr Justice Cavanagh told Majerkiewicz, who was unemployed at the time of the crime, it was pre-planned murder for gain, to steal Mr Everett’s money to pay off his spiralling debts.
Victim Stuart Everett. Pic: Greater Manchester Police
Majerkiewicz, who planned to flee abroad after the murder, owed £60,000 in loan debt and £14,000 on credit cards, the court heard.
Mr Justice Cavanagh said: “You acted in an almost unbelievably cold-blooded and macabre way and showed complete disrespect and contempt for your friend’s remains.
“This denied dignity to Stuart Everett even in death and greatly increased the pain suffered by Stuart Everett’s family when the murder came to light.”
Mr Everett’s family initially had no idea he was dead as Majerkiewicz had assumed use of his finances and his mobile phone, even sending text messages and a birthday card to his relatives purporting to be from Mr Everett.
The court heard that, while former civil servant Mr Everett was murdered overnight between 27 and 28 March last year, police were only alerted after his torso was found at Kersal Dale nature reserve in Salford on 4 April.
A police tent in Kersal Dale nature reserve where Mr Everett’s torso was found. Pic: PA
Police scoured CCTV and found that two days before the discovery, a man entered the wooded area carrying a heavy blue bag and left shortly after without it.
His identity was unknown. But three weeks later, Majerkiewicz was spotted by an officer working on the case who drove past him by chance and noticed his resemblance to the man from the CCTV.
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Moment Salford killer is arrested
When police searched Majerkiewicz’s address, they found evidence of blood on a carpet and furniture and an attempted clean-up after the killing and dismemberment.
After discovering the torso, police launched Operation Harker, which found evidence at 15 crime scenes and human remains at five different sites.
Only a third of Mr Everett’s body has been recovered.
Mr Everett had worked for the NHS and the Department for Work and Pensions. He was known to his family as Benny.
His brother Richard Ziemacki, in a victim impact statement read to the court, said: “It’s extremely difficult to put into words how much I miss him. Seeing my brother on CCTV and listening to his voice for the last time will be moments that will live with me forever – I have no words other than absolutely horrendous.
“Every day we have sat watching in disbelief as the evidence unfolded and clearly shown the way my brother’s end had been planned and orchestrated by an incredibly devious, monstrous individual.”
The King has been seen in public for the first time since his short hospital visit.
The monarch, 76, waved at well-wishers while leaving Clarence House in London in a car this morning. It is understood he was going to his Highgrove estate in Gloucestershire.
It comes after he cancelled his Friday engagements due to “temporary side effects” from his cancer treatment.
Buckingham Palace said after “scheduled and ongoing medical treatment for cancer” on Thursday, the King “experienced temporary side effects that required a short period of observation in hospital”.
Pic: PA
Pic: PA
Pic: PA
The King revealed in February 2024 that he had been diagnosed with cancer and was beginning treatment.
He returned to public duties in April last year and sources suggested in December his treatment would continue in 2025 and was “moving in a positive direction”.
Thursday’s short period of observation in hospital was described as a “most minor bump in a road that is very much heading in the right direction”, the Press Association said, quoting a source.
The King visited the London Clinic on Thursday morning and travelled to and from the hospital by car. He was not joined by the Queen during his brief stay.
Tourist Julian Mati, 34, said it was a “relief” to see the King looking well, admitting he was “horrified when we heard the news yesterday.
“We had come down to the palace today to take pictures, but we never imagined we would see the King. To see him smiling and waving, it’s such a relief.”
In its statement, the palace added that the King “would like to send his apologies to all those who may be inconvenienced or disappointed as a result [of his cancelled appointments].”
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On Wednesday, the King had a typically busy day of activities. He was at London’s Somerset House, where he unveiled a plaque, before hosting a reception at Buckingham Palace in the evening.
Last week, the royals also made a three-day visit to Northern Ireland.
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