The chancellor says she “rejects” new analysis that suggests the average family could be £1,400 a year worse off by the end of the decade.
Rachel Reeves told Sky’s Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips programme that living standards will “increase during the course of this parliament”.
She insisted there has already been a “sustained increase” since Labour came to power last year.
The analysis, by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF), says frozen tax thresholds, rising mortgage and rent costs, and falling real earnings are all predicted to take their toll on living standards in Britain.
For the poorest third, living standards are forecast to drop twice as much compared with middle and high earners.
The charity believes the government will miss one of its stated “milestones” – to raise living standards across the UK before the next election.
It says the £1,400 drop by April 2030 means a 3% fall in disposable income for the average family, while the lowest income households will be £900 per year worse off – a 6% fall.
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Rachel Reeves admits tax rises ‘impact’ the economy
The situation could be even bleaker for some, as the analysis doesn’t account for the recently announced £5bn in cuts to disability benefits.
Average earnings are also set to fall by £700 per year by 2030, according to the JRF.
The charity – which conducts research into reducing poverty – says it came up with its prediction by modelling forecasts from the Bank of England and others.
Chancellor ‘confident we will see living standards increase’
Asked by Trevor Phillips for her response to the findings, the chancellor said she “rejects” them.
Ms Reeves argued living standards in the last parliament “were the worst ever on record”, and said the independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) said in October they are expected to increase, while wages are currently rising at twice the rate of inflation.
“I’m confident that we will see living standards increase during the course of this parliament,” the chancellor insisted, adding there has been a “sustained increase” since Labour was elected.
“We’ve got to do more, absolutely, in terms of raising living standards. But this government has already got started in delivering our plan for change.”
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What to expect from the spring statement
But the JRF says the government welfare cuts are “wrong” and counterproductive and wants the plan scrapped.
It also urges a new “minimum floor” for Universal Credit to help address hardship, and believes the government should instead raise cash by increasing tax on wealth and investments.
The analysis comes three days before the chancellor’s spring statement in which more cuts are set to be announced in a bid to improve the country’s finances.
Her speech will be in response to the OBR, which on the same day will publish its own forecasts on the economy, the cost of living and government finances.
Growth is Labour’s top priority, but the Bank of England recently halved its growth outlook for the UK economy this year to 0.75%.
There are also worries next month’s hike to employer national insurance and the minimum wage will create further drag on investment.
“Chauvinistic” debates on immigration are distracting ministers from tackling the child poverty “emergency”, the founder of the Big Issue has told Sky News.
Lord John Bird, a crossbench peer, said there is “no evidence” the government is trying to “stop the growth or the propagation” of generational poverty, and the best thing they can do is admit they “haven’t got this right” and change course.
It comes amid a delay to Labour’s child poverty strategy, which is looking at whether to lift the controversial two-child benefit cap, among other measures.
While not affiliated to any political party, Lord Bird warned Labour will not hold back the rise of Reform UK unless they get a grip on the issue – calling debates on immigration a “great distraction”.
Image: Lord John Bird is a lifelong poverty campaigner
“They’re largely there because of the problems in the country,” he said of Nigel Farage’s party.
“There’s a kind of rightward move in the country and a lot of that has to do with the way the immigration is going.
“It’s all about, in my opinion, chauvinism – and patriotism has become a new value. I am particularly concerned about that.”
Lord Bird is proposing an amendment to the Children’s Wellbeing and School’s Bill next month that would impose a statutory duty on the government to reduce child poverty in England.
Education minister Baroness Jacqui Smith has previously rejected the idea, saying targets “would not in themselves drive reductions in poverty”.
But according to analysis by the Big Issue, Scotland has seen a 12% drop in relative child poverty since passing legally binding targets in 2018, whereas England and Wales has seen a 15% rise.
Lord Bird’s amendment has the support of Labour peer Ruth Lister, the former director of the Child Poverty Action Group, who argues targets “galvanise” governments and local authorities into action.
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Parents struggle to feed children
Manifesto pledge at risk
Labour is under pressure as its manifesto promised an “ambitious strategy” to bring down child poverty, but the taskforce set up to deliver it after the general election missed its deadline in May.
The delay followed cost concerns around lifting the two-child benefit cap, which multiple charities and Labour MPs argue is the most immediate thing the government can do to help the record 4.5 million children living in poverty in the UK.
That figure is projected to rise to 4.8 million children by the end of this parliament without further action – putting the manifesto pledge in jeopardy.
The cap is likely to be a significant issued at Labour’s annual party conference kicking off this weekend, against the backdrop of a deputy leadership contest in which both contenders have pledged to make child poverty a priority.
Education Secretary Bridget Philipson, who is standing in the race and co-chairs the poverty taskforce, said this week that “everything is on the table, including removing the two-child limit”.
Work and Pensions Secretary Pat McFadden, who co-chairs the taskforce, has not ruled out an announcement by the prime minister at the conference, but stressed: “Everything has to be paid for, everything has to be budgeted.”
Lord Bird said removing the two-child cap, estimated to cost £3.4bn a year, would alleviate an “emergency”.
However, he said a longer-term strategy was needed to prevent poverty, warning it is more entrenched now than during his own “terrible” childhood.
The 79-year-old was born in a Notting Hill slum to a poor Irish family in 1946, becoming homeless at age five and learning to read and write through the prison system as a teen.
Back then “no one was giving you a handout” whereas there is “institutional poverty now”, Lord Bird said, blaming recent governments for “trying to make the poor slightly a bit more comfortable” rather than “turning off the tap”.
Image: Lord John Bird escaped poverty and founded The Big Issue in 1991
‘Aim for the impossible’
He urged Labour to challenge the radicalism of Nye Bevan, the founder of the NHS, and “aim for the impossible” in eradicating child poverty, with investments in education and social development.
“There’s no evidence that the government is trying to stop the growth or the propagation from one generation to another of poverty,” he said.
“The cheapest but most efficient thing this government could do is stop pretending they’ve got it right, stop pretending they got the answers. The most important thing they could do is say, whatever we’re doing, it’s not working.”
Sir Keir Starmer is to announce a “Pride in Place” programme with funding for over 330 disadvantaged communities as part of a fightback against Reform UK.
The money will come alongside new powers for local groups to seize boarded-up shops, save derelict pubs and block gambling and vape stores on high streets, the government said.
The plan aims to address the sense of isolation in deprived communities, which Labour insiders believe is feeding the rise of Reform UK.
A Labour source described the programme as “absolutely essential” and “transformative”.
They told Sky News: “Reform is trying to divide communities, Labour wants to empower them, and we are giving them the tools and resources to turn them around.”
The full list of places that will receive the cash boost, and how much they will get, will be confirmed by the prime minister on Thursday.
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The money is part of the communities funding plan announced by Chancellor Rachel Reeves in her June spending review, which promised new investment for 350 deprived areas across the UK “to improve parks, youth facilities, swimming pools and libraries”.
Image: Labour insiders hope plan can fight off threat of Reform UK
The government said at the time these areas included the 75 places previously named in the Plan for Neighbourhoods, each of which will get £20m of funding over the next 10 years.
The Spending Review named another 20 “pilot neighbourhoods” in England to receive the same amount of funding, mainly in the north or the Midlands, as well as five other pilots across the rest of the UK.
Sir Keir is expected to announce the rest on Thursday.
Speaking ahead of that announcement, the new housing secretary, Steve Reed, said the money will allow local people to “decide how best to restore pride in their neighbourhoods, not us in Westminster”.
He added: “That’s what real patriotism looks like: building up our communities and choosing renewal over division.”
How will the funding work?
The funding will be allocated to neighbourhood boards made up of community leaders and stakeholders, who will work closely with local councils, it is understood.
They will be granted Community Right to Buy and Compulsory Purchase Powers, allowing them to buy assets like grassroots football clubs, seize derelict buildings and save local pubs, the government said.
Councils will also be given powers to block betting shops, vape stores and fake barbers.
The programme draws similarities with Tony Blair’s New Deal for Communities (NDC), a 10-year regeneration drive that targeted 39 of the most deprived neighbourhoods in England from 2001.
Image: A simillar regeneration plan under Toby Blair was largely seen as successful
An independent evaluation found NDC partnerships delivered improvements across several indicators, including crime, education and health. The biggest change was how people felt about their neighbourhoods as places to live.
Each area had around £50m of investment under the former Labour prime minister’s programme, but these were geographically bigger than the ones the government is now targeting, it is understood.
The “Pride in Place” Programme has been informed by the work of the Independent Commission on Neighbourhoods (ICON), launched in September last year to review the state of England’s neighbourhoods.
ICON identified 613 “mission critical” neighbourhoods – those they said needed the most urgent attention to make progress on Sir Keir’s “missions” for government.
The bulk of these were in post-industrial areas in northern England, though high need was also identified in the West Midlands and coastal towns such as Blackpool and Clacton – the latter being the seat of Reform UK leader Nigel Farage.
Many of the sites to be announced are expected to contain a mission-critical neighbourhood within them.
Baroness Hilary Armstrong, a former Labour minister and chair of ICON, said: “If residents start to see positive, tangible changes in their neighbourhoods, this should start to restore the public’s faith in the power of government to do good.”
It comes at a critical time for Sir Keir, who has faced questions over whether he can survive after spending most of his first year in office languishing behind Reform UK in the polls.
Labour MPs have been lobbying for the funding for some time, expressing concern that Number 10’s mission to grow the economy with big infrastructure investments will not directly benefit people in areas that look and feel “left behind”.
Luke Akehurst, the Labour MP for North Durham, told Sky News: “This is what Labour governments are all about – properly funding the areas of the county that most need help.”