Tesla Full Self-Driving is stagnating after Elon said it is going exponential
Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) is stagnating with no real improvement in miles between disengagement in months just as CEO Elon Musk said it is going exponential.
The stagnation of FSD could be explained by Tesla making a pivot and focusing on its geo-fenced ride-hailing service instead of its long-standing promises.
Since 2016, Tesla has claimed that all it vehicles produced onward have all the hardware capable of self-driving at a level enabling a robotaxi service and that a software update would eventually enable it.
For the past six years, CEO Elon Musk has claimed that Tesla would achieve that goal by the end of the year, and he has been wrong every time.
Lately, Musk has been focused on hyping Tesla’s latest Supervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) updates.
FSD is technically a level 2 advanced driver assist system (ADAS). It requires driver supervision at all times, and Tesla takes no responsibility in the case of a crash.
Miles between critical disengagement is the primary metric used to track progress with each FSD update. Tesla and Musk have both used the metric in the past.
In January, we reported on Musk sharing a crowdsourced FSD dataset, claiming that it showed Tesla had now reached “exponential improvement” with FSD v13. We noted that this was both false since exponential improvement would require an extra data point that he didn’t have and misleading since he focused only on highway miles between disengagement and Tesla had just introduced its long-used city driving neural network stack to highway driving.
FSD v13 has now been out for 3 months, and it received several point updates, but the same data praised by Musk a few months ago shows that it is stagnating – not going exponential:
Musk had previously claimed that v13 would enable “a 5 to 6x increase in miles between disengagement compared to v12.5.”
The data now shows that v13 barely brought a 2x improvement, going from ~200 miles to ~400 miles.
After over 33,000 miles reported through all versions of FSD v13, the datasets now point to 495 miles between critical disengagement on average:
Ashok Elluswamy, the head of FSD at Tesla, has previously stated that for Tesla to enable unsupervised self-driving, Tesla needs to achieve the average in miles per critical intervention “equivalent of human miles between collision,” which stands at 700,000 miles, according to NHTSA.
Musk is moving the goal post on Tesla Full Self-Driving
The current stagnation is disappointing for Tesla fans and surprising even to critics. Even those who don’t believe Musk’s ambitious timelines for Tesla to achieve self-driving believed that the system would improve faster.
It needs to improve faster if Tesla wants to go from ~500 miles between critical disengagement to 700,000 miles – the company’s own goal of being safer than humans.
We believe that a possible reason for the current stagnation is that Tesla is focusing on a new strategy for self-driving.
Last month, we posted a report called ‘Elon Musk is about to masterfully move the goalpost on Tesla Full Self-Driving‘. After years of being wrong about Tesla achieving unsupervised self-driving, Musk badly needs a win on that front.
That’s why instead of delivering on its long-stated promise of consumer vehicles achieving unsupervised self-driving, Tesla is shifting to releasing a ride-hailing service in a geo-fenced area around Austin, Texas in June.
Using an internal fleet of vehicles helped by teleoperation in a limited area is a complete change of plan for Tesla self-driving, and it is a service similar to what Waymo has been offering for years. Musk has even thrown colder water on Waymo’s approach, calling it “too difficult to scale.”
We believe that part of the reason why Tesla FSD is stagnating is that the automaker is currently using its engineering power as well as its training compute toward this new program rather than its broader FSD product.
Electrek’s Take
You know my take on FSD. I think that if it was developed in a vacuum without Tesla selling it as “Full Self-Driving” and Musk promising that it would be unsupervised by the end of every year for the last 6 years, I think it would simply be praised as the best level 2 ADAS system out there.
Unfortunately, it’s not the case.
Instead, Musk has tainted the product with lies and false promises and we are not even getting into HW3 in this post.
I think Musk has been really successful at misleading people with FSD, and now he thinks that this pivot to a Waymo-style product will enable Tesla to claim a win on self-driving without most people realizing that it’s actually a loss for millions of Tesla owners.
He might be able to pull it through, but we are going to keep reporting it for what it is on Electrek.
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Environment
Exxon Mobil earnings beat as production growth and cost cuts offset the sting of falling oil prices
Exxon Mobil reported first-quarter earnings Friday that beat Wall Street expectations, but declined from the prior year as crude oil prices have fallen sharply on fears that President Donald Trump’s tariffs will hit global demand.
The oil major said volume growth in the Permian Basin and Guyana combined with cost-cutting measures largely offset lower earnings from weak oil prices. U.S. crude prices have fallen 18% this year as Trump’s tariffs raise fears of slower demand at the same time producers in OPEC+ plan to increase supply.
Exxon shares were up less than 1% in premarket trading after the results.
Here is what Exxon reported for the first quarter compared with what Wall Street was expecting, based on a survey of analysts by LSEG:
- Earnings per share: $1.76 vs. $1.73 per share expected
- Revenue: $83.13 billion, vs. $86.72 billion expected
Exxon said its profits declined 6% to $7.71 billion, or $1.76 per share, from $8.22 billion, or $2.06 per share, in the same quarter last year.
The oil major’s global production business posted earnings of $6.76 billion in the quarter, an increase of about 19% from $5.66 billion in the same period a year ago. Profits in the segment rose due to growth in the Permian and Guyana as well as cost savings.
Earnings in Exxon’s U.S. production segment soared more than 70% to $1.87 billion from $1.05 billion in the same quarter in 2024.
Exxon’s global production came in at 4.55 million barrels per day, an increase of 20% compared to 3.78 million bpd in the year-ago period.
Exxon said first-quarter capital expenditures of $5.9 billion were consistent with its guidance of $27 billion to $29 billion for 2025.
The company said it returned $9.1 billion to shareholders in the quarter, including $4.3 billion in dividends and $4.8 billion in share purchases.
Read the full earnings release here.
This is a developing story. Please check back for updates.
Environment
Chevron stock falls as lower profits and oil prices set to slow the pace of stock buybacks
Chevron stock fell on Friday as the oil major’s profit declined, hurt by the steep drop in oil prices this year.
U.S. crude oil prices have fallen about 18% this year as President Donald Trump’s tariffs are expected to weigh on demand at the same time OPEC+ plans to pump more supply into the market.
The oil major said it plans to repurchase $2.5 billion to $3 billion of its own stock in the second quarter, which is lower than the $3.9 billion it bought back in the first quarter.
Chevron shares were recently down more than 2% in premarket trading.
Here is what Chevron reported for the first quarter compared with what Wall Street was expecting, based on a survey of analysts by LSEG:
- Earnings per share: $2.18 adjusted vs. $2.18 expected
- Revenue: $47.61 billion vs. $48.09 billion expected
Chevron’s net income declined more than 30% to $3.5 billion, or $2 per share, from $5.5 billion or $2.97 per share, in the year-ago period. Excluding one-time items, Chevron earned $2.18 per share, which was in line with Wall Street estimates.
Chevron’s U.S. production business posted a profit of $1.86 billion, a decline of more than 10% from $2.08 billion in the year-ago period, as it experienced higher operating expenses and lower commodity prices.
The oil major’s U.S. refining business swung to a profit of $103 million after posting a loss of $348 million in the fourth quarter of 2024. The segment’s earnings, however, declined 77% from $453 million in the year-ago due to lower margins on refined product sales.
Chevron’s produced 3.35 million barrels per day in the quarter, largely flat compared to 3.34 million bpd in the year-ago period.
Capital expenditures declined about 5% to $3.9 billion, down from $4.1 billion one year ago.
Read the full earnings release here.
This is developing story. Please check back for updates.
Environment
Tariffs will increase Zero Motorcycles’ prices on its more affordable e-motorbikes this month
Zero Motorcycles has announced that its newest line of electric motorbikes will see a price increase in the US due to the Trump Administration’s tariff policy. But the saving grace is that the company is allowing reservations made in the next few weeks to secure pre-tariff pricing.
Zero launched its new X-line of smaller electric motorcycles late last year, ushering in a Sur Ron-style pair of bikes that cost a mere fraction of the company’s larger street bikes.
Designed for off-road use in the US or both on and off-road use in Europe, the Zero XB and XE were designed to be as affordable to new riders as they are approachable.
The XB was unveiled with a price tag of a mere US $4,195 or €4,500, while the larger and more powerful XE carried a price tag of US $6,495 or €6,500.
The pair were part of the motorcycle maker’s plans to have six unique models all priced at under US $10,000 in the next two years. However, those plans may face increasing pressure after the Trump Administration imposed harsh new tariffs on imported goods to the US, forcing many manufacturers to increase prices.
Zero’s push for more affordable electric motorcycles is made possible mainly by its partnership with Chinese electric motorcycle manufacturers like Zongshen. While such companies have years of experience manufacturing motorcycles at more affordable prices, their relative cost advantage could take a serious hit under the US’s aggressive stance towards foreign-produced goods.
The first XB and XE motorcycles are expected to be delivered to existing reservation holders this Summer. However, for anyone who doesn’t yet have a pre-order in place, Zero says that it will still honor the existing pricing for reservations placed before May 18, 2025.
Bikes reserved in the next two weeks are not expected to ship until later this year, meaning they will almost certainly be subject to increased tariffs, though it appears Zero is prepared to eat those tariffs for an early group of reservation holders.
“Zero Motorcycles remains committed in our mission to deliver industry-leading electric motorcycles while maintaining an accessible price point for consumers around the world,” said Sam Paschel, CEO of Zero Motorcycles. “Our customers are at the heart of everything we do. And by honoring prices for early reservation holders – despite the shifting global economy – we’re reinforcing our position as the leader in the electric space and building the future of two-wheel transportation.”
Electrek’s Take
What a time to double down on Chinese partnerships. I feel for Zero, who was obviously looking for a way to reach more riders, especially young riders in the Sur Ron/Talaria demographic, and found the obvious way to do so by going to the world’s biggest market for producing e-motorcycles.
That’s not to say that US-based production isn’t possible. Zero used to do more production locally before slowly shifting more and more of its manufacturing overseas. There are still companies like Ryvid who manufacture in the US, though even those companies rely on many imported components and will still likely take a hit from tariffs.
The long and the short of it is that the entire electric motorcycle industry is going to be shaken by these tariff policies, and no US consumer will spared. Or at least, none after May 18th.
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