Tesla Full Self-Driving is stagnating after Elon said it is going exponential
Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) is stagnating with no real improvement in miles between disengagement in months just as CEO Elon Musk said it is going exponential.
The stagnation of FSD could be explained by Tesla making a pivot and focusing on its geo-fenced ride-hailing service instead of its long-standing promises.
Since 2016, Tesla has claimed that all it vehicles produced onward have all the hardware capable of self-driving at a level enabling a robotaxi service and that a software update would eventually enable it.
For the past six years, CEO Elon Musk has claimed that Tesla would achieve that goal by the end of the year, and he has been wrong every time.
Lately, Musk has been focused on hyping Tesla’s latest Supervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) updates.
FSD is technically a level 2 advanced driver assist system (ADAS). It requires driver supervision at all times, and Tesla takes no responsibility in the case of a crash.
Miles between critical disengagement is the primary metric used to track progress with each FSD update. Tesla and Musk have both used the metric in the past.
In January, we reported on Musk sharing a crowdsourced FSD dataset, claiming that it showed Tesla had now reached “exponential improvement” with FSD v13. We noted that this was both false since exponential improvement would require an extra data point that he didn’t have and misleading since he focused only on highway miles between disengagement and Tesla had just introduced its long-used city driving neural network stack to highway driving.
FSD v13 has now been out for 3 months, and it received several point updates, but the same data praised by Musk a few months ago shows that it is stagnating – not going exponential:
Musk had previously claimed that v13 would enable “a 5 to 6x increase in miles between disengagement compared to v12.5.”
The data now shows that v13 barely brought a 2x improvement, going from ~200 miles to ~400 miles.
After over 33,000 miles reported through all versions of FSD v13, the datasets now point to 495 miles between critical disengagement on average:
Ashok Elluswamy, the head of FSD at Tesla, has previously stated that for Tesla to enable unsupervised self-driving, Tesla needs to achieve the average in miles per critical intervention “equivalent of human miles between collision,” which stands at 700,000 miles, according to NHTSA.
Musk is moving the goal post on Tesla Full Self-Driving
The current stagnation is disappointing for Tesla fans and surprising even to critics. Even those who don’t believe Musk’s ambitious timelines for Tesla to achieve self-driving believed that the system would improve faster.
It needs to improve faster if Tesla wants to go from ~500 miles between critical disengagement to 700,000 miles – the company’s own goal of being safer than humans.
We believe that a possible reason for the current stagnation is that Tesla is focusing on a new strategy for self-driving.
Last month, we posted a report called ‘Elon Musk is about to masterfully move the goalpost on Tesla Full Self-Driving‘. After years of being wrong about Tesla achieving unsupervised self-driving, Musk badly needs a win on that front.
That’s why instead of delivering on its long-stated promise of consumer vehicles achieving unsupervised self-driving, Tesla is shifting to releasing a ride-hailing service in a geo-fenced area around Austin, Texas in June.
Using an internal fleet of vehicles helped by teleoperation in a limited area is a complete change of plan for Tesla self-driving, and it is a service similar to what Waymo has been offering for years. Musk has even thrown colder water on Waymo’s approach, calling it “too difficult to scale.”
We believe that part of the reason why Tesla FSD is stagnating is that the automaker is currently using its engineering power as well as its training compute toward this new program rather than its broader FSD product.
Electrek’s Take
You know my take on FSD. I think that if it was developed in a vacuum without Tesla selling it as “Full Self-Driving” and Musk promising that it would be unsupervised by the end of every year for the last 6 years, I think it would simply be praised as the best level 2 ADAS system out there.
Unfortunately, it’s not the case.
Instead, Musk has tainted the product with lies and false promises and we are not even getting into HW3 in this post.
I think Musk has been really successful at misleading people with FSD, and now he thinks that this pivot to a Waymo-style product will enable Tesla to claim a win on self-driving without most people realizing that it’s actually a loss for millions of Tesla owners.
He might be able to pull it through, but we are going to keep reporting it for what it is on Electrek.
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Electric logistics company Einride is set to go public through a SPAC merger deal with blank-check firm Legato Merger Corp. that values the Swedish brand at a staggering $1.8 billion. (!)
A SPAC deal is a transaction in which a Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC), which is effectively a publicly-traded shell corporation that’s formed solely to raise capital, merges with an operating company to bring it into a public trading market. It’s a process that was popular in the heady, “draw a truck, make a billion dollars” era that saw recently pardoned criminal and alleged sex offender Trevor Milton launch the now-defunct hydrogen truck brand Nikola, and one that offers a faster and sometimes more flexible (read: less regulated) alternative to a traditional Initial Public Offering (IPO).
This week’s deal, however, follows hot on the heels of major autonomous trucking milestones and a solid, billion dollar vote of confidence in Einride — both of which serve to make this deal’s valuation to seem more credible than most.
“We’ve proven the technology, built trust with global customers, and shown that autonomous and electric operations are not just possible, but better,” says Einride CEO, Roozbeh Charli. “This Transaction positions us to accelerate our global expansion and continue to deliver with speed and precision for our customers. The foundation is built, the demand is clear, and our focus is on execution and delivering the future of freight.”
We’ve written about Einride’s electric fleet operations in Europe a few times, but it’s worth noting that the company is rapidly expanding its human-operated decarbonized logistics operations as well (the company announced a 150-unit Peterbilt 579EV truck order last summer).
Peterbilt electric semi trucks
“Our proprietary technology stack, purpose built for autonomous operations, combined with our vessel-agnostic approach, provides significant competitive advantages,” comments Henrik Green, CTO of Einride. “With our demonstrated safety record and established ability to operate autonomous vehicles commercially, we are well-positioned to capture the significant market opportunity as the industry transitions to electric and autonomous freight.”
The Transaction values Einride at $1.8 billion in pre-money equity value and is expected to generate approximately $219 million in gross proceeds before accounting for potential redemptions of Legato’s public shares, transaction expenses and any further financing. Additionally, the Company is seeking up to $100 million of private investment in public equity (or, “PIPE”) capital to accelerate growth.
Other notable SPAC deals in the EV space include Lordstown Motors, Proterra, and Volvo spinoff Polestar, all of which have either gone bankrupt or seen dramatic market cap reductions over the last few years.
SOURCE | IMAGES: Einride.
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BYD is bringing its most affordable EV to the Land Down Under. The Atto 1 arrives as Australia’s cheapest new EV, just as BYD is finding its footing.
BYD reveals Atto 1 EV prices in Australia
The Atto 1 is a rebadged version of BYD’s compact electric hatch, sold as the Seagull in China, the Dolphin Surf in Europe, and the Dolphin Mini in other overseas markets.
BYD’s low-cost electric car arrives as the Chinese auto giant closes in on Tesla, which has dominated Australia’s EV market thus far.
Starting at just $23,990 before on-road costs, the Atto 1 is now the cheapest new electric vehicle in Australia. The electric hatch is available in two trims: Essential and Premium. The Atto 1 Premium, priced from $27,990, before on-road costs.
The base Essential model is powered by a 30 kWh BYD Blade battery, providing a WLTP driving range of 220 km. Upgrading to the Premium trim gets you a larger 43.2 kWh battery, good for a WLTP driving range of 310 km.
Inside, the Atto 1 features a 10.1″ floating infotainment screen with Apple CarPlay and Android Auto, as well as a 7″ driver display cluster. The higher-priced Premium trim adds a wireless phone charger, heated front seats, and a 360-degree camera.
BYD also revealed that the Atto 2 SUV starts at $31,990 before on-road costs. The Premium variant is priced from $35,990.
“The Atto 1 and Atto 2 represent the next step in BYD’s vision for accessible, premium electric mobility for Australian drivers,” according to BYD Australia COO, Stephen Collins.
Both will begin arriving at dealerships next month and are expected to see strong demand as some of the most affordable EVs on the market.
BYD is closing in on Tesla in Australia after going back and forth as the best-selling EV brand over the past few months.
Through October, BYD sold 19,248 electric vehicles in Australia, according to data from The Driven. Tesla, on the other hand, has sold 23,569 vehicles.
BYD is already outselling Tesla in the UK, parts of Europe, and other overseas markets. With two new low-cost models rolling out, Australia could be next.
Source: The Driven, BYD Australia
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Tesla is working on Apple CarPlay integration inside its electric vehicles, according to a new report.
If it does happen, it would mark a major reversal of Tesla’s in-car infotainment strategy.
In the mid-2010s, Tesla CEO Elon Musk said that the automaker was working on integrating phone mirroring, such as Android Auto and Apple CarPlay, but that was a decade ago, and it never happened.
Now, half of the industry is moving away from the technology as automakers increasingly seek full control over the infotainment systems in their vehicles.
Today, Bloomberg came out with a surprising report that claims Tesla is currently working to integrate Apple CarPlay:
The carmaker has started testing the capability internally, according to the people, who asked not to be identified because the effort is still private. The CarPlay platform — long supported by other automakers — shows users a version of the iPhone’s software that’s optimized for vehicle infotainment systems. It’s considered a must-have option by many drivers.
There are not many details on the report other than it would be integrated as a window within Tesla’s broader interface, and that it could launch within the next few months – though it could also be killed just like the last time Tesla talked about it.
Tesla is also planning to use the standard version of CarPlay, not the newer “Ultra” iteration that can control instrument clusters and climate functions. However, the company is planning to support the wireless version, allowing drivers to connect their iPhones without a cable.
Electrek’s Take
I’ll file this one under “I’ll believe it when I see it.” It would be quite a reversal of Tesla’s strategy.
Of all the automakers turning away from Apple CarPlay, Tesla was suffering the least because its software experience is by far the best, including its voice-to-text, as CarPlay is particularly useful to answer text messages through voice while driving, but there are still many people who would prefer the CarPlay experience.
The way I see it, CarPlay integration is not particularly difficult and should at least be offered as an option for those who want it.
And if automakers want to own the whole infotainment experience inside their vehicles, they have to earn it by making the experience a smooth one.
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