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China is focusing on large language models (LLMs) in the artificial intelligence space. 

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China is embracing open-source AI models in a trend market watchers and insiders say is boosting AI adoption and innovation in the country, with some suggesting it is an ‘Android moment’ for the sector.

The open-source shift has been spearheaded by AI startup DeepSeek, whose R1 model released earlier this year challenged American tech dominance and raised questions over Big Tech’s massive spending on large language models and data centers. 

While R1 created a splash in the sector due to its performance and claims of lower costs, some analysts say the most significant impact of DeepSeek has been in catalyzing the adoption of open-source AI models. 

“DeepSeek’s success proves that open-source strategies can lead to faster innovation and broad adoption,” said Wei Sun, principal analyst of artificial intelligence at Counterpoint Research, noting a large number of firms have implemented the model. 

“Now, we see that R1 is actively reshaping China’s AI landscape, with large companies like Baidu moving to open source their own LLMs in a strategic response,” she added. 

On March 16, Baidu released the latest version of its AI model, Ernie 4.5, as well as a new reasoning model, Ernie X1, making them free for individual users. Baidu also plans to make the Ernie 4.5 model series open-source from end-June. 

Experts say that Baidu’s open-source plans represent a broader shift in China, away from a business strategy that focuses on proprietary licensing. 

“Baidu has always been very supportive of its proprietary business model and was vocal against open-source, but disruptors like DeepSeek have proven that open-source models can be as competitive and reliable as proprietary ones,” Lian Jye Su, chief analyst with technology research and advisory group Omdia previously told CNBC.

Open-source vs proprietary models

Open-source generally refers to software in which the source code is made freely available on the web for possible modification and redistribution.

AI models that call themselves open-source had existed before the emergence of DeepSeek, with Meta‘s Llama and Google‘s Gemma being prime examples in the U.S. However, some experts argue that these models aren’t really open source as their licenses restrict certain uses and modifications, and their training data sets aren’t public.

DeepSeek’s R1 is distributed under an ‘MIT License,’ which Counterpoint’s Sun describes as one of the most permissive and widely adopted open-source licenses, facilitating unrestricted use, modification and distribution, including for commercial purposes.

The DeepSeek team even held an “Open-Source Week” last month, which saw it release more technical details about the development of its R1 model. 

While DeepSeek’s model itself is free, the start-up charges for Application Programming Interface, which enables the integration of AI models and their capabilities into other companies’ applications. However, its API charges are advertised to be far cheaper compared with OpenAI and Anthropic’s latest offerings.

OpenAI and Anthropic also generate revenue by charging individual users and enterprises to access some of their models. These models are considered to be ‘closed-source,’ as their datasets, and algorithms are not open for public access.

China opens up

In addition to Baidu, other Chinese tech giants such as Alibaba Group and Tencent have increasingly been providing their AI offerings for free and are making more models open source.

For example, Alibaba Cloud said last month it was open-sourcing its AI models for video generation, while Tencent reportedly released five new open-source models earlier this month with the ability to convert text and images into 3D visuals.

Smaller players are also furthering the trend. ManusAI, a Chinese AI firm that recently unveiled an AI agent that claims to outperform OpenAI’s Deep Research, has said it would shift towards open source.

“This wouldn’t be possible without the amazing open-source community, which is why we’re committed to giving back” co-founder Ji Yichao said in a product demo video. “ManusAI operates as a multi-agent system powered by several distinct models, so later this year, we’re going to open source some of these models,” he added.

Zhipu AI, one of the country’s leading AI startups, this month announced on WeChat that 2025 would be “the year of open source.”

Ray Wang, principal analyst and founder of Constellation Research, told CNBC that companies have been compelled to make these moves following the emergence of DeepSeek.

“With DeepSeek free, it’s impossible for any other Chinese competitors to charge for the same thing. They have to move to open-source business models in order to compete,” said Wang. 

AI scholar and entrepreneur Kai-Fu Lee also believes this dynamic will impact OpenAI, noting in a recent social media post that it would be difficult for the company to justify its pricing when the competition is “free and formidable.”

“The biggest revelation from DeepSeek is that open-source has won,” said Lee, whose Chinese startup 01.AI has built an LLM platform for enterprises seeking to use DeepSeek.

U.S.-China competition

OpenAI — which started the AI frenzy when it released its ChatGPT bot in November 2022— has not signaled that it plans to shift from its proprietary business model. The company which started as a nonprofit in 2015 is moving towards towards a for-profit structure.

Sun says that OpenAI and DeepSeek both represent very different ends of the AI space. She adds that the sector could continue to see division between open-source players that innovate off one another and closed-source companies that have come under pressure to maintain high-cost cutting-edge models. 

The open-source trend has put in to question the massive funds raised by companies such as OpenAI. Microsoft has invested $13 billion into the company. It is in talks to raise up to $40 billion in a funding round that would lift its valuation to as high as $340 billion, CNBC confirmed at the end of January.

In September, CNBC confirmed the company expects about $5 billion in losses, with revenue pegged at $3.7 billion revenue. OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar, has also said that $11 billion in revenue is “definitely in the realm of possibility” for the company this year.

China's open-source AI push is an Android moment and a huge sentiment boost: Hedge fund manager

On the other hand, Chinese companies have chosen the open-source route as they compete with the more proprietary approach of U.S. firms, said Constellation Research’s Wang. “They are hoping for faster adoption than the closed models of the U.S.,” he added. 

Speaking to CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia” on Wednesday, Tim Wang, managing partner of tech-focused hedge fund Monolith Management, said that models from companies such as DeepSeek have been “great enablers and multipliers in China,” demonstrating how things can be done with more limited resources.

According to Wang, open-source models have pushed down costs, opening doors for product innovation — something he says Chinese companies historically have been very good at.

He calls the development the “Android moment,” referring to when Google’s Android made its operating system source code freely available, fostering innovation and development in the non-Apple app ecosystem.

“We used to think China was 12 to 24 months behind [the U.S.] in AI and now we think that’s probably three to six months,” said Wang.

However, other experts have downplayed the idea that open-source AI should be seen through the lens of China and U.S. competition. In fact, several U.S. companies have integrated and benefited from DeepSeek’s R1. 

“I think the so-called DeepSeek moment is not about whether China has better AI than the U.S. or vice versa. It’s really about the power of open-source,” Alibaba Group Chairperson Joe Tsai told CNBC’s CONVERGE conference in Singapore earlier this month. 

Tsai added that open-source models give the power of AI to everyone from small entrepreneurs to large corporations, which will lead to more development, innovation and a proliferation of AI applications.

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Night owl bitcoin traders: Soon there’ll be an ETF just for you

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Night owl bitcoin traders: Soon there'll be an ETF just for you

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A newly proposed exchange-traded fund would offer exposure to bitcoin, much like other popular ETFs tracking the world’s oldest cryptocurrency. But, there’s a twist: The fund would trade bitcoin-linked assets while Wall Street sleeps. 

The Nicholas Bitcoin and Treasuries AfterDark ETF aims to purchase bitcoin-linked financial instruments after the U.S. financial markets close, and exit those positions shortly after the U.S. market re-opens each day, according to a December 9 filing to the Securities and Exchange Commission.

The fund would not hold bitcoin directly. Instead, the AfterDark ETF would use at least 80% of the value of its assets to trade bitcoin futures contracts, bitcoin exchange-traded products and ETFs, and options on those ETFs and ETPs. 

The offering would capitalize on bitcoin’s outsized gains in off-hours trading.

Hypothetically, an investor who had been buying shares of the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) when U.S. markets formally close, and selling them at the next day’s open, would have scored a 222% gain since January 2024, data from wealth manager Bespoke Investment Group shows. But an investor that had bought IBIT shares at the open and sold them at the close would have lost 40.5% in the same time.

Bitcoin was last trading at $92,320, down nearly 1% on the day. The leading cryptocurrency is down about 12% over the past month and little changed since the beginning of the year. 

The proposed ETF underscores jockeying among sponsors to launch ETFs tracking all kinds of cryptocurrencies, from altcoins like Aptos and Sui to memecoins such as Bonk and Dogecoin. The contest has only accelerated under President Donald Trump, who has pushed the SEC and Commodity Futures Trading Commission to soften their stances on token issuers and digital asset exchanges. 

Since being approved under the prior administration in January 2024, more than 30 bitcoin ETFs have begun trading in the U.S., according to data from ETF.com.

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Cisco’s stock closes at record for first time since dot-com peak in 2000

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Cisco's stock closes at record for first time since dot-com peak in 2000

Chuck Robbins, chief executive officer of Cisco, participates in a Bloomberg interview at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on Jan. 17, 2024.

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Few companies were as hot in early 2000 as Cisco, whose networking equipment served as the backbone of the internet boom.

On Wednesday, Cisco’s stock surpassed its dot-com peak for the first time. The shares rose almost 1% to $80.25, topping their prior split-adjusted record or $80.06 reached on March 27, 2000. That’s the same day that Cisco passed Microsoft to become the most valuable publicly traded company in the world.

Back then, investors saw Cisco as a way to bet on the growth of the web, as companies that wanted to get online relied upon the hardware maker’s switches and routers. But following a half-decade boom, the dot-com bubble burst just after Cisco reached its zenith, a collapse that wiped out more than three-quarters of the Nasdaq’s value by October 2002.

While the market swoon eliminated scores of internet highflyers, Cisco survived the upheaval. Eventually it started to grow and expand, diversifying through a series of acquisitions like set-top box maker Scientific- Atlanta in 2006, followed by software companies including Webex, AppDynamics, Duo and Splunk.

With its gains on Wednesday, Cisco’s market cap sits at $317 billion, making it only the 13th most valuable U.S. tech company. In recent years, the stock has badly trailed tech’s megacaps, which have been at the center of the new boom surrounding artificial intelligence.

The AI market has reached a level of euphoria that many analysts have compared to the dot-com era. Instead of Cisco, the modern infrastructure winner is Nvidia, whose AI chips are at the heart of model development and are relied up by the other major tech companies that are all building out AI-focused data centers. Nvidia has a market cap of $4.5 trillion, roughly 14 times Cisco’s current value.

But Cisco is angling to benefit from the AI craze, with CEO Chuck Robbins in November touting $1.3 billion in quarterly AI infrastructure orders from large web companies. Total revenue approached $15 billion, which was up 7.5% year over year, compared with 66% growth in 2000.

Shares of Cisco are up about 36% so far in 2025, outperforming the Nasdaq, which has gained about 22% over the same period.

WATCH: Cisco CEO on latest quarter: AI demand from hyperscalers is accelerating

Cisco CEO on latest quarter: AI demand from hyperscalers is accelerating

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Oracle set to report quarterly results after the bell

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Oracle set to report quarterly results after the bell

Larry Ellison, Oracle’s co-founder and chief technology officer, appears at the Formula One British Grand Prix in Towcester, U.K., on July 6, 2025.

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Oracle is scheduled to report fiscal second-quarter results after market close on Wednesday.

Here’s what analysts are expecting, according to LSEG:

  • Earnings per share: $1.64 adjusted
  • Revenue: $16.21 billion

Wall Street expects revenue to increase 15% in the quarter that ended Nov. 30, from $14.1 billion a year earlier. Analysts polled by StreetAccount are looking for $7.92 billion in cloud revenue and $6.06 billion from software.

The report lands at a critical moment for Oracle, which has tried to position itself at the center of the artificial intelligence boom by committing to massive build-outs. While the move has been a boon for Oracle’s revenue and its backlog, investors have grown concerned about the amount of debt the company is raising and the risks it faces should the AI market slow.

The stock plummeted 23% in November, its worst monthly performance since 2001 and, as of Tuesday’s close, is 33% below its record reached in September. Still, the shares are up 33% for the year, outperforming the Nasdaq, which has gained 22% over that stretch.

Over the past decade, Oracle has diversified its business beyond databases and enterprise software and into cloud infrastructure, where it competes with Amazon, Microsoft and Google. Those companies are all vying for big AI contracts and are investing heavily in data centers and hardware necessary to meet expected demand.

OpenAI, which sparked the generative AI rush with the launch of ChatGPT three years ago, has committed to spending more than $300 billion on Oracle’s infrastructure services over five years.

“Oracle’s job is not to imagine gigawatt-scale data centers. Oracle’s job is to build them,” Larry Ellison, the company’s co-founder and chairman, told investors in September.

Oracle raised $18 billion during the period, one of the biggest issuances on record for a tech company. Skeptical investors have been buying five-year credit default swaps, driving them to multiyear highs. Credit default swaps are like insurance for investors, with buyers paying for protection in case the borrower can’t repay its debt.

“Customer concentration is a major issue here, but I think the bigger thing is, How are they going to pay for this?” said RBC analyst Rishi Jaluria, who has the equivalent of a hold rating on Oracle’s stock.

During the quarter, Oracle named executives Clay Magouyrk and Mike Sicilia as the company’s new CEOs, succeeding Safra Catz. Oracle also introduced AI agents for automating various facets of finance, human resources and sales.

Executives will discuss the results and issue guidance on a conference call starting at 5 p.m. ET.

WATCH: Oracle’s debt concerns loom large ahead of quarterly earnings

Oracle's debt concerns loom large ahead of quarterly earnings

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