Which team could be the next SMU? College football teams poised to rise in 2025
With spring ball underway, it’s never too early to think about the upcoming season that will be here before we know it.
Last season, we saw multiple teams surprisingly make their way into the College Football Playoff. Arizona State, which was predicted preseason to finish last in the Big 12, ended up winning the league title in its first season. Then there was SMU, and of course, Indiana.
So which team could be surprising us all in the 2025 season?
Our college football reporters give their thoughts on teams and players that could help their teams rise next season.
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Teams to rise
Biggest improvement | Players
Off-the-radar teams
Which non-CFP team from last year do you expect to make the playoff this year?
Jake Trotter: LSU once again has a tough schedule, beginning with the season opener at Clemson. The Tigers face five other teams in ESPN’s Way-Too-Early Top 25 rankings (Florida, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Texas A&M, Alabama). But LSU has the pieces to make the playoff, highlighted by star quarterback Garrett Nussmeier and the top-ranked transfer class in the country. Another playoff miss would be a big disappointment for coach Brian Kelly in his fourth season in Baton Rouge.
Chris Low: In Kalen DeBoer’s first season at Alabama, the Crimson Tide were on the cusp of slipping into the playoff, despite losses to Vanderbilt and Tennessee, but were then flattened in an inexplicable 24-3 loss at Oklahoma the second-to-last week of the regular season and stayed home. DeBoer will have more of his fingerprints on this team and brought in former colleague Ryan Grubb to run the offense. Quarterback Ty Simpson should fit nicely into Grubb’s system. The defense has a chance to be dominant, and the schedule is a bit more manageable with Tennessee and LSU both coming to Tuscaloosa.
David Hale: I’m pretty high on Louisville this year. The ACC is pretty wide open, Jeff Brohm has won 19 games in his first two seasons there and the Cardinals were probably the most “what might’ve been” team in the country in 2024, losing four games by seven points or fewer. The defense has gotten some upgrades (though the pass rush may be a concern), the receiving corps is as good as it has been under Brohm and Miller Moss gives Brohm arguably his best QB too. But the real key is the ground game. Louisville might as well have the best O-line in the ACC (and one of the best nationally) and its two tailbacks — Isaac Brown and Duke Watson — are absolutely electric. The big-play potential on offense is off the charts. For the past two years, Louisville has knocked on the door. In 2025, the Cards burst through it.
Max Olson: LSU is the one that stands out for me, too. The Tigers added an impressive amount of premium, proven talent via the portal in December and their lineup is going to be loaded with newcomers at wide receiver, tight end, cornerback and along offensive and defensive lines. Winning all those recruiting battles wasn’t easy and certainly wasn’t cheap. Can Brian Kelly put all the pieces together and pull off a special season? This team is going to be fun to watch, and I’d expect significant improvement on defense under second-year DC Blake Baker. One more worth pointing too: I’d expect Miami to operate with a similar level of urgency after coming up short last season.
Andrea Adelson: Considering the depth in the SEC, it feels like the most logical conference from which to choose a team. LSU and Alabama make sense, but what about Texas A&M? Yes, I am well aware of what the history has been, but I also believe Mike Elko knows what it takes to build a winner and transcend some of that bad luck that always seems to hang around College Station. The good news is A&M ranks No. 7 in the nation in returning production — starting with an offense that has quarterback Marcel Reed back. The Aggies also upgraded their receiver group, bringing in Kevin Concepcion. Their schedule is not easy, but it is pretty clear SEC schools can lose multiple games and still be in contention.
Kyle Bonagura: Alabama is the obvious answer. As Chris pointed out, the Tide was close this past year, despite a less-than-smooth first year under DeBoer. Bringing in Ryan Grubb should make a big difference. I thought he would have been a great candidate to take over at Washington last season and was always impressed by his playcalling for the Huskies as DeBoer’s offensive coordinator. Those two go way back, so as much as moving to Alabama was an adjustment for DeBoer, it might have been just as big a challenge to do it with Grubb. Besides, with the resources Alabama has, it’s safe to assume it’ll always be in the mix here.
Adam Rittenberg: All the SEC contenders and the arguments made are perfectly sensible, but I’m a little surprised that no one has mentioned the most wide-open league out there — the Big 12. An Arizona State team picked to finish last in the conference before the season ended up going all the way to the CFP. Could the Sun Devils repeat? Sure. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see last year’s runner-up, Iowa State, make the field for the first time. Coaches are high on quarterback Rocco Becht, and if ISU can replace some outstanding receivers, it could make a push for the Big 12 crown. BYU also returns its quarterback in Jake Retzlaff from an 11-2 team. Colorado should once again have arguably the league’s most talented roster, and Texas Tech could use an excellent transfer portal haul to take the next step.
Bill Connelly: Whichever Big 12 team actually wins its close games will be in great shape, and that’s rarely the same team two years in a row. That could be bad news for Arizona State (4-1 in one-score finishes in conference play), Iowa State (3-1) and Texas Tech (5-1) and good news for a team such as Utah (1-5) or Oklahoma State (0-3). I’m curious about Utah — new offensive coordinator (Jason Beck), new set of QBs led by New Mexico‘s Devon Dampier, veteran offensive line, experienced secondary — but give me BYU, which returns a healthy amount of overall production and potential gamebreakers in Retzlaff and receiver Chase Roberts. (All that said, the most obvious answer to the original question is probably the right one: Roll Tide.)
Which team will show the greatest improvement from last season?
Hale: I want to say Florida State based simply on the notion that even being average in 2025 would be a massive improvement from 2024. But instead, let’s go with Kansas. The Jayhawks were a team I liked to make a run at the Big 12 title last year, but a brutal 2-6 start — with six losses by a combined 30 points, just one by more than six — doomed their season. A big issue was the offensive adjustment after the departure of Andy Kotelnicki, but by year’s end, Kansas seemed to have figured things out — winning three straight against ranked foes Iowa State, BYU and Colorado. Now, Jalon Daniels is back, the defense looks solid and Lance Leipold will have his team ready for the opportunity. Don’t be shocked if the Jayhawks double their win total from last year’s 5-7 campaign.
Olson: Utah was the preseason pick to win the Big 12 entering its debut year in its new conference but endured a nightmarish 5-7 season that was wrecked by injuries, inconsistency and a seven-game losing streak in league play. Kyle Whittingham called it a “Twilight Zone” type of season, and now the Utes will try to prove the program’s first losing season since 2013 was merely a bad-luck fluke. They’re hoping new offensive coordinator Jason Beck and Devon Dampier, the prolific dual-threat QB he brought with him from New Mexico, can lead a revamped offense and get this program right back in the mix for conference titles and CFP contention.
Connelly: It’s hard to say how much the record will improve considering that whole “they have the hardest schedule in the country” thing, but Oklahoma had its best defense in more than a decade and its worst offense since the 1990s last season and took big steps toward rectifying the latter with the addition of coordinator Ben Arbuckle and quarterback John Mateer from Washington State. If the offensive line improves (it was also OU’s worst since the 1990s last year), the combination of Arbuckle, Mateer and a huge load of receiving corps transfers could prompt a pretty big rebound in terms of scoring points. The defense returns quite a bit too. If the Sooners can get off to a fast start — they host both Michigan and Auburn in September — they could be a really interesting story once the schedule starts unloading on them in October and November.
Adelson: I am going to go with the easy answer here that Hale avoided: Florida State. Five more wins than last year might be average, but improvement is improvement. Mike Norvell would rather not revisit the complete program breakdown in 2024, but he told me he refuses to waste the lessons learned from last year. He revamped his coaching staff, brought in players from the portal with proven production and has emphasized intangibles such as leadership and playing with an edge. If there is one improvement to count on, it will be the Seminoles’ ability to run the ball with what should be a vastly improved offensive line, addition of dual-threat Thomas Castellanos and what they believe is a solid running back group — including the addition of freshman back Ousmane Kromah.
Bonagura: There is still something to the aura around USC that prevents me from being able to write it off. Lincoln Riley’s three-year tenure has been a massive disappointment. To go from 11-3 to 8-5 to 7-6 is the definition of trending in the wrong direction. But it also means there is more room for improvement — that’s how I arrived at them here. The infrastructure is there to be competitive. Riley has the success on his resume. All the ingredients for success are there.
Trotter: Oklahoma State is coming off just its second losing season under Mike Gundy, as the Cowboys inexplicably finished winless in the Big 12. Oklahoma State will have several new faces on both sides of the ball, with major question marks at almost every position. Gundy, however, has thrived over his two decades in Stillwater when the Pokes have been overlooked. And if a few transfers, notably quarterback Hauss Hejny (TCU) and running back Kalib Hicks (Oklahoma), hit, Gundy’s track record suggests Oklahoma State will quickly return to respectability if not bowl eligibility.
Low: If it’s the same Michigan team that finished the 2024 season, look out. The Wolverines won their last three games of the season, including a 13-10 road victory over eventual national champion Ohio State. In their second season under Sherrone Moore, the Wolverines clearly have to be better on offense and should be with the country’s top overall prospect, Bryce Underwood, coming in at quarterback. And even with some key players leaving for the NFL, the defense will again be stifling, especially if safety Rod Moore is healthy. The Wolverines, which finished 8-5 a year ago, weren’t that far off from being a 10-win team against a brutal schedule. They faced six top-12 teams. Look for them to be in the middle of the Big Ten race in 2025.
Rittenberg: Some good answers from others, and in an effort not to double up, I’m going with Michigan State. The Spartans had a mostly rough first season under Jonathan Smith, who inherited a challenging roster and faced a difficult schedule. Despite some defensive bright spots early, MSU stumbled to a 5-7 finish. But Smith has more familiarity with his roster and the league, and returns a promising quarterback in Aidan Chiles as well as other intriguing pieces like wide receiver Nick Marsh. The Spartans don’t play Ohio State or Oregon this season and get their two toughest opponents, Michigan and Penn State, in East Lansing. Smith hasn’t forgotten how to coach and should develop a better and more consistent product in year two.
Which player will make the biggest impact for a team on the rise?
Low: There’s no shortage of intriguing quarterbacks in the SEC, and Florida‘s DJ Lagway is right there at the top of the list. The bummer is that he’s dealing with a shoulder problem and will miss spring practice. It’s unclear how much he will throw at all this spring, but he’s the heartbeat of a Florida team that came alive during the second half of last season under Billy Napier. The true sophomore can do a little bit of everything, and if healthy, has what it takes to carry a football team on his shoulders.
Hale: If we’re talking really off the radar, we need a team that a) finished with a losing record in 2024, b) is getting no hype entering 2025, and c) has an actual path to the playoff based on offseason improvements and a manageable schedule. So, who fits that bill? How about Virginia? Hear me out. The Hoos added a solid transfer class led by QB Chandler Morris. They’ve been building slowly under Tony Elliott for three years, making small steps each season. They have a schedule that avoids both Clemson and Miami in the ACC (their FBS opponents had just a .370 winning percentage against Power 4 competition last year, and only Louisville, Duke and Washington State finished better than .500). Is it likely Virginia makes a playoff run? Of course not. But what would you have said about Arizona State and Indiana a year ago?
Trotter: South Carolina ended the 2024 regular season as one of the hottest teams in college football before narrowly missing out on a playoff berth. The emergence of dual-threat quarterback LaNorris Sellers was a big reason for South Carolina’s surge. If Sellers takes another step off from last year’s breakout season, the Gamecocks could be a threat to win the SEC and potentially contend for a national title.
Olson: I don’t know if many people outside of Waco realize just how good Baylor quarterback Sawyer Robertson was in 2024. The Bears could’ve completely collapsed last season after a 2-4 start put a ton of hot-seat pressure on coach Dave Aranda, but the redshirt junior powered a six-game win streak to dramatically turn their season around. Robertson was an ideal fit for new OC Jake Spavital’s passing attack and put up 3,071 passing yards with 32 total TDs and just eight turnovers, finishing with the best QBR (82.9) among all Power 4 quarterbacks returning for 2025. Baylor put up 41.3 points per game during the win streak, second-most among all FBS teams over the second half of the regular season. If it can recapture that magic this fall, it’ll be a real threat in the Big 12 title race.
Connelly: If I’m right about OU, then Mateer’s the obvious answer here. In 12 games last season, he threw for 3,139 yards and rushed for 1,032 (not including sacks) with 44 combined touchdowns. The Sooners’ schedule will provide plenty of elite opposition, but he’s dynamite. Meanwhile, former OU quarterback — Jackson Arnold — will be asked to help tamp down the consistent self-destruction that held Auburn back last season, and if he pulls it off (I’m not entirely convinced), then with an elite receiving corps the Tigers could surge as well.
Rittenberg: Washington coach Jedd Fisch wisely had Demond Williams Jr. start games late last season. The dynamic Williams, who followed Fisch from Arizona to Washington, completed more than 80% of his passes in losses to Oregon and Louisville but left opposing coaches impressed. He will give Washington a chance to take a big step in Fisch’s second season, possibly all the way back into CFP contention. Washington also returns top running back Jonah Coleman and veteran wide receiver Denzel Boston. Williams, who had four touchdown passes in the Sun Bowl against Louisville, should be among the most exciting young quarterbacks in the country.
Which off-the-radar team could emerge as a playoff contender?
Trotter: Last year, Arizona State came out of nowhere to stunningly win the Big 12 before taking Texas to the wire in the second round of the playoff. Texas Tech, one of only two teams that handed the Sun Devils a conference loss last year, has the potential to replicate Arizona State’s magical run from what appears to be another wide open Big 12 race. The Red Raiders bring back quarterback Behren Morton, who passed for 27 touchdowns with eight interceptions. They also landed the nation’s No. 2 portal class behind LSU, with plenty of talent arriving to bolster the trenches.
Low: BYU was right there a year ago and won 11 games. The Cougars lost 28-23 at Arizona State on Nov. 23, finished in a four-way tie for first place in the Big 12 and ultimately missed out on playing in the Big 12 championship game and thus a chance to earn a playoff berth. Kalani Sitake’s club will return most of the key pieces from that club, including quarterback Jake Retzlaff. The offensive line will be experienced. The linebacker corps — Isaiah Glasker, Jack Kelly and Harrison Taggart — is one of the best in the country, and kicker Will Ferrin is nearly automatic (10-of-12 from 40-plus yards).
Olson: Duke is another off-the-radar team, which offseason moves suggested it’s serious about chasing a conference title in 2025. After an impressive nine-win debut season, Manny Diaz and his coaching staff made a massive bet on Tulane transfer QB Darian Mensah, making the rising redshirt sophomore one of the highest-paid passers in the country. He’s joining a squad with a dozen returning starters, including four of five starting offensive linemen and All-ACC defensive backs Chandler Rivers and Terry Moore. If Mensah and the rest of their portal additions can pay off, the Blue Devils could have the goods to be a real factor in the ACC race.
Adelson: I am going to throw one more ACC team into the mix: Georgia Tech, whom I have projected higher than Duke and Virginia. The Jackets return one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the country in Haynes King, leading rusher Jamal Haynes and one of the best offensive lines in the ACC with a rapidly improving defense. The Jackets have shown us their potential — wins over Florida State and Miami last season, a heartbreaking loss to Georgia in eight overtimes — and coach Brent Key told me this team has made it their mission to be more consistent. They do return the bulk of their production on both sides of the ball and for the first time since Key took over the program, they do not have one of the harder ACC schedules. In fact, Georgia Tech only plays one ranked ACC team in our preseason Way-Too-Early Top 25 — Clemson — and that is a home game on Sept. 13. We will know more about this team after its Friday night opener at Colorado.
Bonagura: Let’s not forget about the Group of 5 schools. The way I look at it is that the G5 slot will likely come from either the American or Mountain West. Boise State is firmly on the radar, of course, and will be the favorite again in the MW. So, let’s look at the AAC. Both Army and Navy were outstanding last year, but it’s tough for them to sustain that level of success. Which brings us to Memphis and Tulane. Memphis has just one Power 4 opponent on the schedule — Arkansas — so a win there, plus an elusive conference title, would make the Tigers a good option to consider after they went 11-2 last year.
Rittenberg: There are a lot of good selections above, but I wouldn’t write off Iowa. The Hawkeyes have made Big Ten championship games but never the CFP. There are two main reasons why it could happen this fall. Iowa finally has a really accomplished quarterback in Mark Gronowski, who led South Dakota State to an FCS national title and has 49 wins and more than 10,000 career passing yards. After years in the QB wilderness, Iowa can rally around a guy capable of moving the ball consistently. The Hawkeyes also miss Ohio State, Michigan and Illinois on the Big Ten schedule, and have their toughest games — Penn State, Oregon and Indiana — at Kinnick Stadium. Iowa will visit Iowa State and Nebraska but has had a ton of success in both venues. If the Hawkeyes defend their home turf, look out for a CFP run.
Connelly: Sorry, I passed out for a moment at Hale’s Virginia suggestion. Iowa’s a great answer for the simple fact that the Hawkeyes lost a ton of close games last year and upgraded at QB, but … are we sleeping on last year’s off-the-radar surprise, Indiana, a bit too much? It feels like a lot of way-too-earlies slipped the Hoosiers into the bottom of their top 25s out of respect, and one-year wonders do tend to fall back to the pack a bit, but IU didn’t reach 11-2 on the power of a bunch of close wins — it was blowing teams out for the most part, and it returns a lot of key pieces from what was an outstanding defense. The Hoosiers obviously need Cal transfer Fernando Mendoza to stick at QB, but he’ll have lots of fun skill corps weapons, and his offensive line will be more experienced than what Kurtis Rourke dealt with last season. They do face trips to Oregon and Penn State, but getting to 10-2 would likely get them in again.
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Greg Wyshynski
NHL teams head into this offseason with an understanding of where the salary cap is climbing over the next three seasons. It’s projected to rise to $95.5 million next season; $104 million in 2026-27; and then up to $113.5 million in 2027-28.
That could lead to more teams comfortably retaining their own players on expiring contracts. Or it could lead to those players receiving inflated offers in free agency, as a rising cap means rising chaos.
Here’s a look at the unrestricted free agent field, organized into different tiers. There are also some significant restricted free agents, too — like forward Marco Rossi (Wild), as well as defensemen K’Andre Miller (Rangers). It’s anyone’s guess if last season’s offer sheet fun was an anomaly or the new normal.
The contract terms and average annual contract values are courtesy of PuckPedia. In the case of players whose salaries were retained in transactions, we’re listing the full average annual value of their contracts.
Which players are you hoping your team signs this offseason?
Draft recap: All 224 picks
Grades for all 32 teams
Winners and losers
Tier 1: The impact players
These are established players who can play key, immediate roles for a team.
Age: 28 | 2024-25 cap hit: $6.65 million
Multiple reports had Boeser rejected the Canucks’ latest contract offer, all but ensuring that he’s going to test the free agent market. There’s probably more interest outside of Vancouver in signing Boeser than within the Canucks organization, which has sent mixed signals about retaining him. He is one season removed from a 40-goal campaign, and has eased concerns about his ability to remain in the lineup for a full season.
There’s been heavy speculation that the Burnsville, Minn., native could find his way to the Wild, but don’t count out potential suitors such as the Hurricanes, Detroit Red Wings, New Jersey Devils and Kings.
One team to watch here is the Edmonton Oilers, provided they have the cap space after signing RFA defenseman Evan Bouchard to his next contract. But don’t count out the Canucks yet, either.
Age: 29 | 2024-25 cap hit: $6 million
Jets GM Kevin Cheveldayoff has done an impressive job dispelling the “no one wants to sign in Winnipeg” accusation, having gotten Mark Scheifele, Connor Hellebuyck and Neal Pionk to re-up in the past few years. The GM said he’ll remain in dialogue with Ehlers — at one point saying he’d make a case for him to be “a unique Jet-for-life-type player” — but the expectation is that the winger will hit the market.
A consistent point producer, Ehlers put his best foot forward toward a free agent payday with his best points per 60 minutes average (3.5) in five years. He is an offensive force — when he is in the lineup, as Ehlers has played over 70 games just once in the past four seasons, and he has missed time in the playoffs, as well.
Ehlers will likely command an average salary between $8-9 million on the open market. There’s been a heavy focus on the Hurricanes. Either player could help fill the void created by the loss of Martin Necas in the trade for Mikko Rantanen, and then the subsequent trade of Rantanen.
Tier 2: The best bets
These players have shown they’re worth the investment.
Age: 29 | 2024-2025 cap hit: $5.875 million
Gavrikov just completed a two-year deal that he signed with general manager Rob Blake in 2023. The wrinkle here: Blake is no longer the GM, with Ken Holland now at the helm in Los Angeles.
Gavrikov had a strong defensive season with the Kings and chipped in 30 points (five goals, 25 assists), which was the second-highest total of his six-season career. He was solid when paired with either Mikey Anderson or Jordan Spence.
All of this it say that the Kings should seek to retain Gavrikov. But if his new deal is too rich for what Holland wants to do with the rest of this roster, other teams will gladly add him to their blue line. The Rangers have been mentioned the most as a potential destination, a team that needs an infusion of competence on its blue line.
Age: 33 | 2024-2025 cap hit: $5 million
One of several great moves made by Stars GM Jim Nill this season, Granlund was rescued from last place San Jose, for which he posted 45 points in 52 games. Granlund had 21 points in 31 games for Dallas then nine in 16 playoff games while skating on the “Finnish Mafia” line with Mikko Rantanen and Roope Hintz.
Someone is probably going to overpay for Granlund, whose uptick in goal scoring has coincided with pending free agency. But he has produced points wherever he has played (Pittsburgh excluded). The Stars want to hang onto him, but will likely have to move money out to do so.
Tier 3: The best values
Under-the-radar gems, analytics darlings and difference-makers with low-cost contracts.
Age: 27 | 2024-25 cap hit: $1.25 million
This isn’t the first time Beauvillier has been in this tier, but his season with the Penguins and the Capitals underscored how valuable he can be on a budget contract, especially his six points in 10 playoff games with the Caps in their brief playoff run.
Strong underlying numbers, good output and still only 27 until next month.
Age: 31 | 2024-25 cap hit: $1 million
If it wasn’t for that other Connor stealing all the attention in Edmonton, perhaps more people would have appreciated the regular season Brown had for the Oilers — 13 goals and 17 assists in 82 games, skating to a plus-9 in 14:01 of average ice time per game — on a steal of a contract.
It took his playoff outburst — five goals and four assists in the Oilers’ run to the Cup Final — to really grab some attention. A hard-working, pace-setting player.
Age: 36 | 2024-25 cap hit: $2.25 million
“Daddy” had an impressive walk year with 20 goals and 20 assists in 80 games. He saw similar averages in the first year of his two-year deal with Dallas. He is never getting back to the offensive numbers he posted in his prime, but at the right average annual value, Dadonov can be an offensive strength in the regular season.
Age: 33 | 2024-25 cap hit: $3.15 million
The former Anaheim Duck was a trade-deadline pickup for New Jersey who was pressed into more service than expected due to injuries to the Devils’ defensive corps in the playoffs. In their five-game series against Carolina, Dumoulin averaged 29:21 per game in ice time, skating over 36 minutes in two overtime games and playing well in the process.
The two-time Cup winner with Pittsburgh still can bring it in the postseason.
Age: 31 | 2024-25 cap hit: $2.75 million
The former Boston Bruins defenseman had a quietly strong season for the Penguins with one goal but 39 assists — 24 of them at even strength. Defense was never his calling card, but offensively, he was solid in traditional stats and analytics.
Age: 29 | 2024-25 cap hit: $1.075 million
Wait, a former Buffalo Sabres forward being acquired by the Golden Knights and finding his game again? Never seen that before …
Anyway, Olofsson had 15 goals and 14 assists on a bargain-basement “show me” contract. He has demonstrated in the past that, when healthy, he has a ton of offensive upside.
Age: 40 | 2024-25 cap hit: $1.15 million
If you want to play for the Stanley Cup, you might want to have Corey Perry on your roster. Of course, winning the Cup with Corey Perry is a different story, as the veteran winger’s teams have lost in the Stanley Cup Final in five of the last six seasons after he won his only ring in 2007 with the Anaheim Ducks. But the fact remains that the Stars, Canadiens, Lightning and the Oilers (twice) all made the final round with Perry’s help as a win-at-all-costs winger.
Perry turns 41 years old next May. He had 30 points in 81 regular season games (11:56 of ice time per game) and 10 goals in 22 playoff games for the Oilers. But there’s a thought that Perry might be a luxury who Edmonton can’t afford in its cap crunch next season.
If Perry skates away from Edmonton, there are some familiar faces that could welcome him to their rosters: Los Angeles, whose GM Ken Holland signed him in Edmonton; and Dallas, where Perry played in 2019-20 and whose new coach Glen Gulutzan was with Perry in Edmonton for the last two seasons. But really, any team in the cusp of a Cup Final could dangle a hook for The Worm.
Age: 33 | 2024-25 cap hit: $800,000
In the 2023-24 season, Oliver Ekman-Larsson won a Stanley Cup with the Panthers on a one-year contract and parlayed that into a four-year, $14 million free-agent deal with the Maple Leafs. Schmidt essentially played the same role with Florida in this Stanley Cup run, and was extremely solid on their third pairing in the playoffs with 12 points in 23 games, skating to a plus-9.
He could return to the Panthers or use that success to find some term elsewhere.
Age: 29 | 2024-25 cap hit: $1.6 million
Suter is teetering on the brink of a potential overpay, after setting career highs in goals (25) and points (46) in a contract year with the Canucks. But his goal production has been steady in limited roles throughout his career, and he does enough away from the puck — according to the analytics — that even a dip in last season’s numbers won’t make a multiplier on his cap hit regrettable.
Tier 4: The boom-or-busts
Players who have the ability to justify the investment or whose contracts could eventually become an eyesore on PuckPedia.
Age: 40 | 2024-2025 cap hit: $8 million
The beard, the ranch, the mysterious bag filled with mysterious items.
There are few NHL players who have inspired the kind of lore that Brent Burns has. He also used to inspire a lot of offense, but that production has fallen off steeply over the past two seasons — from 61 points to 43 points to 29 points in 82 games this season, the lowest average of points per 60 minutes of his career.
Is this run the end of the line for Burns? He hasn’t said. But there’s always going to be a market for a puck-moving defenseman in the NHL who can log 20 minutes per game.
Age: 30 | 2024-2025 cap hit: $2.5 million
Drouin recaptured his offensive game with Colorado, which acquired him with the encouragement of his junior hockey teammate Nathan MacKinnon. It was a heartwarming story. Less so was the fact that, once again, the injury bug munched on him this past season.
He had 37 points in 43 games, showing that when he’s in the lineup he can be effective. Operative phrase: when he’s in the lineup. His agent Allan Walsh recently announced that Drouin was moving on from the cap-strapped Avalanche.
Age: 27 | 2024-2025 cap hit: $4.5 million
The Rangers traded the 27-year-old to the Avalanche at the trade deadline. He’s a solid defensive defenseman who could complement a puck-moving partner, like he did in New York with Adam Fox.
But at this point in Lindgren’s NHL career, it’s practically predestined that he is going to either play through injuries or miss some time because of them.
Age: 33 | 2024-2025 cap hit: $7.75 million
Orlov surprised many the last time he was a free agent by signing a short-term, high-AAV contract with the Hurricanes. He had a slight uptick in offensive production this season but remained just above replacement level as a defender. Orlov has been especially rough in his own end in the playoffs.
While the Canes could let him walk, there’s likely value in keeping Orlov around as a partner and mentor to rookie Alexander Nikishin, who looks like something special.
Age: 33 | 2024-2025 cap hit: $3 million
What was expected to be one of the best value signings in the NHL last offseason never really worked out that way for Skinner and Edmonton. He had 16 goals and 13 assists in 72 games, skating just 12:60 on average. He did appear in five playoff games during the Oilers’ run to the Cup Final, his first postseason action of his 15-year career.
Skinner is two seasons removed from a 35-goal campaign with Buffalo.
Tier 5: The goalies
The few, the proud, the available goaltenders
Age: 34 | 2024-25 cap hit: $3.85 million
Allen outplayed Jacob Markstrom in the regular season, with a higher save percentage (.908), more goals saved above expected (8.75) and just as many shutouts (four).
The Devils like their goaltending, and GM Tom Fitzgerald has discussed negotiating to bring Allen back. But the free agent goalie pool is basically a puddle. There’s a reason teams are making trades for goalies with term (Detroit) or quickly re-signing their RFAs before a potential offer sheet (St. Louis). Allen is easily the best of an underwhelming lot.
Age: 29 | 2024-25 cap hit: $3.4 million
The former starter for the Colorado Avalanche, Georgiev was sent to the Sharks in the Mackenzie Blackwood trade. Things weren’t all the better for him there, as Georgiev had minus-13.7 goals saved above expected in 31 games for San Jose.
GM Mike Grier already told the goaltender he won’t be back with the Sharks next season.
Age: 32 | 2024-25 cap hit: $900,000
One of five goalies the Wings used this season, Lyon played 30 games for Detroit with an .896 save percentage and a 14-9-1 record. He was just under average in goals saved above expected at minus-1.63.
Age: 28 | 2024-25 cap hit: $1.8 million
Signed in a cost-effective deal as a backup to Adin Hill, Samsonov had a second straight season with a sub-.900 save percentage, along with a minus-7.85 goals saved above expected.
Age: 29 | 2024-25 cap hit: $3.4 million
A former starter with the Devils, Vanecek split time between the Sharks and Panthers this season, and he wasn’t particularly great for either of them.
Age: 27 | 2024-25 cap hit: $2.2 million
Dustin Wolf‘s incredible rookie season was supported by 30 games of perfectly average goaltending from Vladar, who remains a reliable tandem goalie if not much more.
Tier 6: The spackle
The other free agents available who don’t neatly fall into these tiers.
Mason Appleton, C, Winnipeg Jets
Cam Atkinson, RW, Tampa Bay Lightning
Joel Armia, LW/RW, Montreal Canadiens
Nathan Bastian, RW, New Jersey Devils
Nick Bjugstad, C, Utah Mammoth
Justin Brazeau, RW, Minnesota Wild
Cody Ceci, D, Dallas Stars
Tony DeAngelo, D, New York Islanders
Calvin de Haan, D, New York Rangers
Christian Dvorak, C, Montreal Canadiens
Lars Eller, C, Washington Capitals
Robby Fabbri, F, Anaheim Ducks
Radek Faksa, C, St. Louis Blues
Anton Forsberg, G, Ottawa Senators
Adam Gaudette, RW, Ottawa Senators
Tanner Jeannot, F, Los Angeles Kings
John Klingberg, D, Edmonton Oilers
Luke Kunin, F, Columbus Blue Jackets
Sean Kuraly, C, Columbus Blue Jackets
Oliver Kylington, D, Anaheim Ducks
Andrew Mangiapane, F, Washington Capitals
Anthony Mantha, RW, Calgary Flames
Brock McGinn, LW, Anaheim Ducks
Gustav Nyquist, RW, Minnesota Wild
Max Pacioretty, LW, Toronto Maple Leafs
Nick Perbix, D, Tampa Bay Lightning
Corey Perry, RW, Edmonton Oilers
Jeff Petry, D, Detroit Red Wings
Taylor Raddysh, D, Washington Capitals
Jack Roslovic, F, Carolina Hurricanes
Jan Rutta, D, San Jose Sharks
Brandon Saad, LW, Vegas Golden Knights
Nate Schmidt, D, Florida Panthers
Brendan Smith, D, Dallas Stars
Nico Sturm, C, Florida Panthers
Brandon Tanev, LW, Winnipeg Jets
James van Riemsdyk, LW, Columbus Blue Jackets
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Ryan S. Clark
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Kristen Shilton
With the 2025 NHL draft in the rearview mirror, it’s time for free agency. The signing period officially begins Tuesday at noon ET, although re-signings (and trades) have been flowing for the past several days.
Every front office is trying to maximize its chance at reaching the Stanley Cup playoffs next spring and lifting the most famous trophy in sports. Here’s how each of them can nail this offseason and the cap space that each team has, as well as a look at key players hitting restricted and unrestricted free agency.
Note: Profiles for the Atlantic and Metro teams were written by Kristen Shilton. Ryan S. Clark analyzed the Central and Pacific teams. Stats are collected from Natural Stat Trick, Hockey Reference and Evolving Hockey. Projected cap space as of June 29, per PuckPedia.
Draft recap: All 224 picks
Grades for all 32 teams
Winners and losers
ATLANTIC DIVISION
2024-25 result: Missed the playoffs
Key player hitting UFA: None
Key player hitting RFA: None
Cap space: $12,743,333
What they should do: GM Don Sweeney seems invested in taking care of the Bruins’ own. He already signed Mason Lohrei to a two-year extension, and is engaged with Jokiharju on a return to keep Boston’s depth on the right side.
Sweeney also got Morgan Geekie signed to a new deal. The forward is coming off his best NHL season (33 goals and 57 points) and could be a foundational piece for the Bruins moving forward. Monday morning, the team announced that defenseman Henri Jokiharju had also re-signed.
From there, Sweeney has to find some outside help to up Boston’s scoring punch. Only Geekie and David Pastrnak managed 20-plus goals last season as the Bruins’ ranked 28th in offense. There’s serious room for improvement that Sweeny will have to address in free agency.
2024-25 result: Missed the playoffs
Key players hitting UFA: None
Key players hitting RFA: D Bowen Byram, G Devon Levi
Cap space: $20,840,319
What they should do: Well, GM Kevyn Adams said he had a plan. And it went into full motion when he traded RFA JJ Peterka to Utah. That felt like just the first domino to fall in Buffalo.
Adams then signed pending RFA Jack Quinn to a two-year extension. But there’s work left to do. If Adams intends to move on from Byram, now is the time to do it while he’s still a valuable player. Then, Adams’ priority should be an extension for Alex Tuch. The key forward (and passionate leader) can re-sign beginning Tuesday, and there’s no use waiting around when the Sabres are desperate for positivity at this point.
There’s also the question of how to wring more consistency out of the lineup next season. Adams should target free agents who can bring that. Skaters such as Mason Appleton or Connor Brown could fill out the Sabres’ bottom six nicely, and give them some much-needed depth. The key is for Adams to stay active and not let Buffalo’s lack of success breed complacency.
2024-25 result: Missed the playoffs
Key player hitting UFA: F Patrick Kane
Key players hitting RFA: F Jonatan Berggren, F Elmer Soderblom
Cap space: $18,411,628
What they should do: The Red Wings pulled off a blockbuster during draft weekend, landing John Gibson from Anaheim in exchange for Petr Mrazek and a pair of picks. That was a needed upgrade for Detroit in net, and allows Gibson to play with another solid veteran in Cam Talbot. That’s a strong start to the offseason for GM Steve Yzerman.
He’ll give his group a chance to get back into the postseason picture by continuing to tweak. Re-signing Kane is an easy boost — he has played well at 5-on-5 and special teams, and has a veteran poise.
It’s the Red Wings’ defense that’s in need of a true upgrade. Detroit gave up the 12th-most goals last season, and the collection of veterans the Red Wings relied on for their second and third pairings weren’t cutting it. There are UFA options available such as Vladislav Gavrikov who might help, or Yzerman could swing a deal for someone such as RFA K’Andre Miller. Regardless of where Yzerman looks, it’s important he finds a defenseman (or two) who can take some pressure off Moritz Seider and Simon Edvinsson.
2024-25 result: Won the Stanley Cup
Key players hitting UFA: F Brad Marchand, D Nate Schmidt, G Vitek Vanecek
Key player hitting RFA: F Mackie Samoskevich
Cap space: $4,900,000
What they should do: The Panthers already found Sergei Bobrovsky‘s new backup in a trade with Columbus for Daniil Tarasov. The 26-year-old will replace departing UFA Vanecek, and crosses one item off GM Bill Zito’s to-do list.
Before re-signing, Sam Bennett publicly said he wasn’t leaving Florida, a proclamation Aaron Ekblad‘s agent encouraged him not to do out loud (for leverage reasons). But, Ekblad elected to come back too via an eight-year contract signed Monday with a $6.1 million AAV.
Zito now has limited cap space for additional contracts. Will he make a trade to ensure Marchand stays? Thankfully for Zito, Florida doesn’t have many other holes to fill. And retaining Marchand shouldn’t be at too high a cost given his age and role with the team.
2024-25 result: Lost in the first round
Key player hitting UFA: F Christian Dvorak
Key player hitting RFA: G Jakub Dobes
Cap space: $-3,394,166
What they should do: Montreal made waves with its push into the postseason in 2024-25. That’s nothing compared to what GM Kent Hughes pulled off on draft day, acquiring Noah Dobson from the Islanders and signing him to an eight-year, $76 million contract. It cost Hughes a pretty penny — including two 2025 first-round draft choices — but the 25-year-old Dobson joining Lane Hutson & Co. on the Canadiens’ blue line makes that a formidable-looking squad.
Now the Canadiens’ most glaring need is a second-line center — but that’s a hot commodity without many skaters available via free agency to fill that role. Anthony Beauvillier has been mentioned often in connection to the Habs, but that doesn’t provide a long-term solution. Re-signing Dvorak would be a holdover choice as well.
Hughes could also settle for adding to the wings, or orchestrate a trade that wrangles a true top-six pivot. Either way, there’s a want and need for the front office to infuse some exciting offensive energy into the Canadiens’ lineup without sacrificing too much of the pipeline or more draft capital.
2024-25 result: Lost in the first round
Key players hitting UFA: F Nick Cousins, G Anton Forsberg
Key players hitting RFA: None
Cap space: $8,194,286
What they should do: The Senators’ focus was largely trained on re-signing Claude Giroux. GM Steve Staois got that one done Sunday when he inked Giroux to a one-year contract extension. That’s an important deal for the Senators to maintain some of the consistency that helped them become a playoff team last season.
Now, will Staois do much else to boost Ottawa going forward? He has been vocal about liking Ottawa’s group as it is, and might decide just keeping Giroux — and his leadership — will most benefit the Senators’ rising core.
Ottawa doesn’t appear in glaring need of help in other facets — they’ve built slow and steady for a reason — so getting Giroux done might be Staois’ signal that the Senators will continue prioritizing growth from within as opposed to chasing outside help. That mindset would also be well reflected in an extension for Forsberg, although the goalie is rumored to want to test the open market instead.
2024-25 result: Lost in the first round
Key player hitting UFA: D Nick Perbix
Key player hitting RFA: F Gage Goncalves
Cap space: $5,480,001
What they should do: As usual, nothing is off the table for Tampa Bay. Where there’s a will, GM Julien BriseBois generally usually manages to find a way.
The Lightning ran out of steam in the postseason (again), and you could see BriseBois wanted to guard against that by leveraging his minimal cap space with the addition of some new players, particularly on the back end. But there’s work to be done at the minimum in keeping Perbix and Goncalves. Both skaters have filled their roles for Tampa Bay recently, and Goncalves especially is just finding his stride in the NHL.
BriseBois has brokered more than one blockbuster of late though, and Goncalves could also be someone to watch on the trade market if the GM is looking to roll the dice again to give the Lightning another chance to be the team to be beat in the Sunshine State.
2024-25 result: Lost in the second round
Key players hitting UFA: F Steven Lorentz, F Mitch Marner
Key player hitting RFA: F Nick Robertson
Cap space: $13,570,581
What they should do: The Maple Leafs took care of business by getting John Tavares signed to a four-year extension last week. That was the top priority this offseason for GM Brad Treliving.
Unless a trade for Marner’s rights materializes in the next 24 hours, there’s almost no doubt he will walk away for nothing in free agency. Either way, that’s a massive loss for the Leafs’ offense. Losing Tavares too would have cratered the Leafs’ center depth.
But with Tavares squared away — and knowing the Leafs won’t be investing ample cap space in Marner — Treliving was able to re-sign RFA Matthew Knies to a six-year extension carrying a $7.75 million AAV. That’s about as good as it gets for the Leafs.
Now, will Treliving fill in the gaps with some blue-line help? That would be good business as well. And he should also consider bringing back Lorentz and Robertson.
METROPOLITAN DIVISION
2024-25 result: Lost in the conference finals
Key players hitting UFA: D Brent Burns, D Dmitry Orlov, F Jack Roslovic
Key players hitting RFA: None
Cap space: $26,715,958
What they should do: Carolina can’t quite get over the hump, stalling out in the Eastern Conference finals two of the past three seasons. It’s on GM Erik Tulsky to find players to power the Hurricanes through to the other side.
The first thing Carolina needs is to add scoring wingers, preferably those with top-nine pedigree and a proven track record. A second-line center would be valuable as well, and — if there’s cap room left — boosting their right-side defensive depth wouldn’t hurt. Carolina averaged fewer than three goals per game in the playoffs, and struggled especially in the conference finals against Florida’s stout defensive effort.
The Hurricanes might have too many of the same style skater in their lineup, making them easier to shut down, so Tulsky should target some grit to go with the finesse Carolina can already wield with its current roster.
2024-25 result: Missed the playoffs
Key players hitting UFA: F Christian Fischer, F Luke Kunin, F Kevin Labanc, D Ivan Provorov
Key players hitting RFA: D Jordan Harris, F Dmitri Voronkov
Cap space: $28,533,752
What they should do: Columbus didn’t wait around for Tuesday to start dealing, trading for Charlie Coyle and Miles Wood from Colorado. Coyle especially helps make the Blue Jackets’ middle six more robust, and gives the team some flexibility at center. And if Wood can reignite his game after some down seasons, he’ll contribute somewhere in the bottom six.
Depth like that is an asset. But it’s not enough (right now) to truly change the Blue Jackets’ fortunes. GM Don Waddell should be seeking another center and a top-six winger who complement the young core. The right side of their blue line would also benefit from a boost, beyond the extension for Dante Fabbro.
That was all true before the trade of goalie Daniil Tarasov, though. How will Waddell go about Columbus’ netminding now? There’s Elvis Merzlikins and Jet Greaves. Waddell isn’t giving the Blue Jackets’ their best opportunity without exploring an upgrade in the cage.
2024-25 result: Lost in the first round
Key players hitting UFA: F Nathan Bastian, F Daniel Sprong, G Jake Allen
Key players hitting RFA: F Nolan Foote, D Luke Hughes
Cap space: $14,394,167
What they should do: The Devils will be rightfully focused on getting a new deal done with pending Hughes, a backbone on their blue line and key to the franchise’s future. Then, GM Tom Fitzgerald can start adding to New Jersey’s offense.
There’s a critical need for a center (especially if they don’t qualify RFA Cody Glass) considering that Dawson Mercer might not be ready for that jump next season. Punching up the team’s scoring is another significant task. New Jersey ranked 20th in offense last season, and while some of that could be tied to losing Jack Hughes to injury, it was still an issue even when he was healthy.
The backup goaltender position will also have to be addressed: Can the Devils rely on Nico Daws behind Jacob Markstrom? It’s slim pickings for a goalie in free agency, but a trade could materialize to help the Devils improve there.
2024-25 result: Missed the playoffs
Key players hitting UFA: None
Key players hitting RFA: D Scott Perunovich
Cap space: $14,693,334
What they should do: Incoming GM Mathieu Darche didn’t waste time shaking things up on the island when he traded Noah Dobson to Montreal during draft weekend. That move left the Islanders with only four viable blueliners signed for this season, though Darche moved quickly to get Alexander Romanov re-signed as well, via an eight-year contract.
And of course, there’s the possibility No. 1 draft choice Matthew Schaefer works his way into the rotation.
The team’s next priority is ensuring Ilya Sorokin has the right support in goal next season. Semyon Varlamov was sidelined by an injury in December, and he never returned; the Islanders’ goaltending struggled as a result. Varlamov is 37 now, and might not be the best option any longer to play in tandem with a top-tier goalie such as Sorokin. Darche will have to decide if there’s a deal to be made for Varlamov or if the Isles’ can be confident he’ll give them strong minutes in the coming season.
And, as always, the Islanders could use more scoring depth (they ranked 28th in offense last season) but they’ll have to prioritize which areas can be shored up now vs. later.
2024-25 result: Missed the playoffs
Key players hitting UFA: None
Key players hitting RFA: F Will Cuylle, F Arthur Kaliyev, D K’Andre Miller
Cap space: $12,197,142
What they should do: New York already sent Chris Kreider to Anaheim, completing a trade that seemed inevitable at some point this offseason. That freed up some cap space that they can use to try to become a playoff team again.
Coming to a decision on Miller is vital. Do the Rangers keep him? Trade him? Where does he fit for them into the future?
Then there is Cuylle, who had an excellent second season and should be signed by the Rangers quickly to avoid any sort of offer-sheet situation. New York doesn’t have enough cap yet to make many other major moves. Barring another veteran trade, taking care of his own might be the best GM Chris Drury can do for now.
2024-25 result: Missed the playoffs
Key players hitting UFA: None
Key players hitting RFA: F Jakob Pelletier, D Cam York
Cap space: $15,141,905
What they should do: Philadelphia’s primary needs going into the 2025-26 season were to be stronger down the middle and getting another goaltender. Trading for Trevor Zegras has (theoretically) accomplished that first goal. Now it’s time for the Flyers to find another goaltender who can complement Samuel Ersson.
Philadelphia ranked 32nd in team save percentage last season (.872), and neither Ivan Fedotov nor Aleksei Kolosov appear reliable enough for the Flyers to lean on moving forward. GM Danny Briere will have to scour the (middling) free agent market for another netminder.
A trade for Thatcher Demko, with his connection to new coach Rick Tocchet and one year left at $5 million AAV, might be their best bet despite his injury history. Alex Lyon or Jake Allen could also be viable veteran options to support Ersson (whom the organization still believes has a bright future).
After the goaltending is sorted, if Briere can also add a left-handed defenseman to the mix, all the better for Philadelphia.
2024-25 result: Missed the playoffs
Key players hitting UFA: None
Key players hitting RFA: F Connor Dewar, F Philip Tomasino
Cap space: $19,616,904
What they should do: We believe the Penguins won’t be trading Sidney Crosby in the offseason. Erik Karlsson, though? That’s something GM Kyle Dubas should be exploring.
Karlsson has shown his age the past two seasons, and Pittsburgh has to be dialed in on getting younger and faster if they expect to be a postseason contender. It won’t be easy to get Karlsson off the books. But if there’s a way Dubas can get out from under his contract, it will benefit the Penguins in a big way.
Dubas is likely to get both Dewar and Tomasino signed to new deals.
Then there’s the Penguins’ goalie confidence rating — as in, where is it right now? Tristan Jarry and Alex Nedeljkovic remain in the fold but were, shall we say, not exactly a top tandem last season. Could a Karlsson trade perhaps return a netminder to help out? It’s possible.
2024-25 result: Lost in the second round
Key players hitting UFA: D Ethan Bear, F Anthony Beauvillier, F Andrew Mangiapane
Key player hitting RFA: D Alexander Alexeyev
Cap space: $9,375,000
What they should do: GM Chris Patrick said he wanted to add more high-skill players to the Capitals’ lineup. That’s rich coming from the second-highest scoring team in 2024-25 — and yet, there’s logic to it. Washington was boosted by a handful of skaters having career-best seasons offensively. It would be foolish to rely on that happening again for so many players.
Retaining Beauvillier would help the Capitals maintain their bottom-six depth without breaking the bank. There’s going to be some turnover for Washington regardless, with T.J. Oshie retiring, so the decision to prioritize scoring is a wise one.
CENTRAL DIVISION
2024-25 result: Missed the playoffs
Key players hitting UFA: None
Key players hitting RFA: D Louis Crevier, D Wyatt Kaiser, F Philipp Kurashev, G Arvid Soderblom
Cap space: $22,495,357
What they should do: Find a way to improve the roster, while also advancing the team’s rebuild at the same time.
The Blackhawks were in the bottom 10 of goals scored per game while allowing the second-most goals per game. Blackhawks GM Kyle Davidson traded for Andre Burakovsky to provide another potential goal-scoring option. Davidson could use free agency or one more trade to find another experienced scorer who meshes with their youth movement.
There’s also a possibility the Blackhawks could look to do the same on the back end by getting at least two experienced defensemen to improve upon last season’s issues. Especially when the current group they have features seven skaters younger than 24 who are either under contract or team control for next season.
2024-25 result: Lost in the first round
Key players hitting UFA: F Jonathan Drouin, F Joel Kiviranta, D Ryan Lindgren, F Jimmy Vesey
Key player hitting RFA: None
Cap space: $8,950,000
What they should do: Strengthen their roster to win another Stanley Cup. Building a supporting cast has been an issue since the Avs won the Stanley Cup in 2022. It remains that way now with them needing to again reconfigure their bottom-six forward corps while doing the same for their third defense pairing.
There are options that can be had, but that goes back to why they’re in this situation in the first place: cap space. Trading Charlie Coyle and Miles Wood created an additional $8.2 million in room but also came at the cost of trying to fill two more bottom-six roles.
2024-25 result: Lost in the conference finals
Key players hitting UFA: D Cody Ceci, F Evgenii Dadonov, F Mikael Granlund
Key players hitting RFA: None
Cap space: $980,084
What they should do: Reinforce their bottom-six forward group. Who knew? There’s another Western Conference team in a championship window that must rebuild its bottom six with the intent that it can play a role in getting them to their desired destination.
While that’s not to say the Stars couldn’t be inclined to add more help elsewhere, the bottom six appears to be their greatest need, with only 10 forwards under contract on a team that must create more space to attain the strongest possible options.
2024-25 result: Lost in the first round
Key players hitting UFA: F Justin Brazeau, D Jon Merrill, F Gustav Nyquist
Key player hitting RFA: F Marco Rossi
Cap space: $17,711,835
What they should do: Solidify their roster by adding more goal scorers. GM Bill Guerin said at the end of the season that finding another center was in the team’s plans. The Wild appeared to have several options of players who were slated to hit free agency.
Or that appeared to be the case until centers such as Sam Bennett, Matt Duchene, Brock Nelson and John Tavares decided to stay with their teams, while Jonathan Toews signed a one-year deal with his hometown Jets.
Should the Wild decide to go in another direction, they could be inclined to add another top-six or top-nine winger. Now, if only there was a seven-time 20-goal scorer who could reach free agency that just happens to be from the Twin Cities.
2024-25 result: Missed the playoffs
Key players hitting UFA: D Marc Del Gaizo, F Jakub Vrana
Key player hitting RFA: F Luke Evangelista
Cap space: $13,519,610
What they should do: Select the path they believe is the one to success. Being experienced in some areas while inexperienced in others played a role in why they went from playoff team to lottery entrant in a single season — especially after “winning July 1” last year, as GM Barry Trotz mentioned during the draft broadcast.
Trotz has stated how much potential he sees in the club’s young players, and how that could see the team find cohesion with those more experienced players. But at the same time, the Preds could be inclined to add another top-nine forward and/or a top-six defenseman just to be safe. Trotz did the latter late Sunday when he traded for Golden Knights defenseman Nicolas Hague, and signed him to a four-year contract worth $5.5 million annually.
2024-25 result: Lost in the first round
Key players hitting UFA: F Radek Faksa, D Ryan Suter
Key players hitting RFA: None
Cap space: $1,625,150
What they should do: Add at least one more defenseman. GM Doug Armstrong said in May that he doesn’t expect Torey Krug to play next season. If that’s the case, that would leave the Blues needing another top-six defenseman, while possibly trying to acquire one more for depth.
Armstrong told reporters days before the draft that the Blues will have the long-term injured reserve space from Krug’s contract, which is on the books at $6.5 million annually.
Aside from that, the Blues appear to have their top-nine forwards situated while having both goalies under contract with Joel Hofer signing a two-year extension Saturday.
2024-25 result: Missed the playoffs
Key players hitting UFA: D Robert Bortuzzo, F Nick Bjugstad, F Michael Carcone
Key player hitting RFA: F Jack McBain
Cap space: $14,982,143
What they should do: Aggressively pursue every top-six forward. They already got a head start on that by trading for JJ Peterka, and signing him to a five-year contract extension worth $7.7 million annually.
It’s possible there are other potential top-six options who could be in play if they reach the market. If not, the Mammoth could be inclined to see if a trade exists to add one more forward to a team that appears to be on the cusp of the playoffs. Especially when Utah was among the top 10 teams in the NHL in shots per 60 minutes and scoring chances per 60 but finished 21st in goals per game.
2024-25 result: Lost in the second round
Key players hitting UFA: F Mason Appleton, F Nikolaj Ehlers, F Brandon Tanev
Key players hitting RFA: F Morgan Barron, F Rasmus Kupari, D Dylan Samberg, F Gabriel Vilardi
Cap space: $23,513,810
What they should do: Strategically sign more forwards. It’s possible that the Ehlers saga could come to an end with him signing a contract. But there’s also the reality he could leave in a market in which he’s one of the strongest options available.
Ehlers or not, the Jets can spend to get additional scoring help. But there must be certain items taken into consideration given they’ll need to balance their cap space. They’ll either need to re-sign Ehlers or find who they feel can be his replacement.
Also, they need to get a new deal done for 27-goal scorer Vilardi. They’ll also need to bolster their bottom-six forward group while taking care of Samberg on the back end.
PACIFIC DIVISION
2024-25 result: Missed the playoffs
Key players hitting UFA: F Robby Fabbri, F Brock McGinn
Key players hitting RFA: G Lukas Dostal, D Drew Helleson, F Mason McTavish, F Isac Lundestrom
Cap space: $35,988,812
What they should do: Spend carefully now, knowing what’s ahead in the future. Hypothetically speaking, GM Pat Verbeek has more than enough cap space to do whatever he feels is necessary. That could be anything from adding another top-six forward to a middle-six forward to at least two bottom-six forwards. It’s possible Verbeek could do something on defense, but it would come at the risk of taking playing time away from members of their young but promising blue line.
And, any decision Verbeek makes also comes with the consequence that they have key players they must pay this offseason — with the idea that Leo Carlsson, Cutter Gauthier, Jackson LaCombe, Pavel Mintyukov and Olen Zellweger are all RFAs after next season.
2024-25 result: Missed the playoffs
Key players hitting UFA: F Anthony Mantha, F Kevin Rooney, G Dan Vladar
Key players hitting RFA: F Morgan Frost, F Connor Zary
Cap space: $19,820,000
What they should do: Acquire forwards who can consistently finish scoring chances. Where it gets a bit complicated for the Flames is that they’re trying to add scoring help in a free agent market in which the options could create a bidding war.
The Flames could opt to play that game, with the idea they could determine if it makes more sense to find a trade that addresses their needs. They must also think about how to structure new contracts for Frost and Zary — short-term bridge deals or longer-term ones to have cost certainty.
2024-25 result: Lost in the Cup Final
Key players hitting UFA: F Connor Brown, D John Klingberg, F Corey Perry, F Jeff Skinner
Key player hitting RFA: D Evan Bouchard
Cap space: $11,050,834
What they should do: They must re-sign Bouchard and then revamp their supporting cast. There appears to be at least one opening in their top six, a few more on their fourth line, and at least one among their defensemen.
Their goaltending obviously remains under question after a consecutive defeat in the Stanley Cup Final that featured uneven performances.
The Oilers have clear areas they must address, with the understanding that they’ll need to either create more cap space or attempt to improve their roster with the hope the personnel they seek can be had at team-friendly prices.
And of course, they do all of this with the best player in the world slated to hit unrestricted free agency after 2025-26, which could be a factor in all of it.
2024-25 result: Lost in the first round
Key players hitting UFA: D Vladislav Gavrikov, F Tanner Jeannot, F Andrei Kuzmenko, G David Rittich
Key player hitting RFA: F Alex Laferriere
Cap space: $23,210,000
What they should do: Take one or two big swings. New GM Ken Holland has been connected to every top-six forward of significance, ranging from Brock Boeser to Mitch Marner to Brad Marchand. The Kings could also go after another top-four defenseman, whether that’s re-signing Gavrikov or landing someone else.
But that also comes with the understanding that the Kings will want to have enough space remaining to add more experience to their fourth line — and upgrade their backup goaltender should it come to that point.
2024-25 result: Missed the playoffs
Key players hitting UFA: G Alexandar Georgiev, D Jan Rutta
Key players hitting RFA: F Thomas Bordeleau, F Klim Kostin, F Nikolai Kovalenko
Cap space: $44,090,832
What they should do: Keep adding to the rebuild. Finishing last in the NHL means that the Sharks need help in many areas. OK, they could use help in every area, ranging from their top nine to their bottom six to their defense to adding another goaltender who could work in tandem with promising prospect Yaroslav Askarov.
This will be the second season for Macklin Celebrini and Will Smith, which means they’re still concentrating on the future. So, the Sharks could again sign veteran players to one-year deals whom they could move on from at the deadline to attain more draft capital.
2024-25 result: Missed the playoffs
Key player hitting UFA: F Michael Eyssimont
Key players hitting RFA: D Ryker Evans, F Kaapo Kakko, F Tye Kartye
Cap space: $18,057,621
What they should do: Continue the trend of adding players who help them establish consistency. Similar to how they traded for Mason Marchment, getting a 22-goal scorer who hypothetically bolsters their top-nine forward group, or how they traded for Frederick Gaudreau to give their bottom six a two-way center and 18-goal scorer who has now scored 14 or more goals in three of the past four seasons.
Those are the sort of moves that could help the Kraken find more continuity, while also establishing potentially a deeper roster than they’ve had since making the playoffs in their second season.
2024-25 result: Missed the playoffs
Key players hitting UFA: F Brock Boeser, F Pius Suter
Key players hitting RFA: None
Cap space: $7,031,667
What they should do: Find more top-nine forward help. Consistently scoring goals was an issue last season, and it appears that it could be an issue again ahead of next season.
There’s a chance they could re-sign Boeser and Suter, although they could also lose both. If they do, that presents a new gap to fill.
The Canucks should also add another bottom-pairing defenseman, with the caveat that they can only do so much with such limited cap space.
2024-25 result: Lost in the second round
Key players hitting UFA: F Victor Olofsson, F Tanner Pearson, G Ilya Samsonov
Key player hitting RFA: F Alexander Holtz
Cap space: $2,186,429
What they should do: Strengthen their roster to win a second Stanley Cup. There’s always going to be the expectation that GM Kelly McCrimmon does something. As for what that could be? It’s complicated.
On Saturday, there were multiple reports that they’ve talked to the Maple Leafs about a sign-and-trade involving Mitch Marner. A day later, it was reported by The Fourth Period that defenseman Alex Pietrangelo would require multiple surgeries and is expected to sit out the 2025-26 season.
Hours later, they would trade then-pending RFA defenseman Nicolas Hague for forward Colton Sissons and defenseman Jeremy Lauzon in a move that saw them add depth while leaving them with less than $800,00 in cap space. It’s never boring in Vegas!
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Dan Mullen
The calendar has turned to July 1, and that means one thing: It’s time for Mets fans everywhere to wish each other a Happy Bobby Bonilla Day! Why? On Monday, 61-year-old Bobby Bonilla will collect a check for $1,193,248.20 from the New York Mets, as he has and will every July 1 from 2011 through 2035.
Because of baseball’s salary structure, Bonilla’s annual payday is often more than some of the game’s current young stars will make in a given year.
But the Mets are not alone in the practice of handing out deferred payments to star players long after they last suited up for the team, with past MVPs and Cy Young winners among the notable names still collecting annual paychecks from their previous employers.
This past offseason, deferred money became an even bigger talking point across the sport with the Los Angeles Dodgers frequently opting for the structure, highlighted by a deal with Shohei Ohtani that will delay payments for $680 million of his $700 million megadeal. He’ll start receiving $68 million per year in 2034.
Here is everything you need to know about Bonilla’s payday, deferred money in MLB and the current players making less for the 2025 season than Bobby Bo will receive from the Mets on Saturday.
So why does Bonilla get this payday?
In 2000, the Mets agreed to buy out the remaining $5.9 million on Bonilla’s contract.
However, instead of paying Bonilla the $5.9 million at the time, the Mets agreed to make annual payments of nearly $1.2 million for 25 years starting July 1, 2011, including a negotiated 8% interest.
At the time, Mets ownership was invested in a Bernie Madoff account that promised double-digit returns, and the Mets were poised to make a significant profit if the Madoff account delivered — but that did not work out.
Under new owner Steve Cohen, who mentioned the possibility of celebrating Bonilla at Citi Field annually soon after taking over the team, the Mets have embraced Bonilla’s day.
How rare is this arrangement?
Bonilla last played for the Mets in 1999 and last played in the majors for the Cardinals in 2001, but he will be paid through 2035 (when he’ll be 72).
Here are some other notable deferred-money contracts, courtesy of ESPN Research:
• Bobby Bonilla (again): A second deferred-contract plan with the Mets and Orioles pays him $500,000 a year for 25 years. Those payments began in 2004.
• Bret Saberhagen: Will receive $250,000 a year from the Mets for 25 years (payments also began in 2004; this was the inspiration for Bonilla’s deal).
• Max Scherzer: Will receive $105 million total from the Nationals that will be paid out through 2028.
• Manny Ramírez: Will collect $24.2 million total from the Red Sox through 2026.
• Chris Davis: Davis’ arrangement with the Orioles might make him the new Bonilla, as he collects $59 million in deferred payments during a 15-year stretch that started last year and continues through 2037. Davis received $9.16 million in 2024 and will again in 2025, then he will collect $3.5 million from 2026 to 2032 and $1.4 million from 2033 to 2037.
How does Bonilla’s deal compare to Ohtani’s contract?
The biggest difference in the two deferral-heavy deals is that Bonilla’s came as the result of a buyout by the Mets for an underperforming veteran, whereas Ohtani’s salary arrangement was proposed by a superstar at the height of his free agency.
In his unprecedented contract, Ohtani is being paid just $2 million annually during the 10-year length of his deal with the Dodgers. From 2034 to 2043, Ohtani will receive $68 million per year. The parameters of the arrangement allow the Dodgers more short-term flexibility while also lowering the team’s competitive balance tax burden with only the present-day value ($46 million per year) of the contract counting toward L.A.’s CBT payroll.
How Bonilla’s payment compares to 2025 MLB salaries
Because baseball’s salary structure has young players start their careers by earning just over half of Bonilla’s annual $1.19 million, the following players will be making less than Bonilla this season (listed in order of 2025 Fangraphs WAR entering Monday’s games):
Pete Crow-Armstrong — $771,000 (3.9 WAR)
James Wood — $764,600 (3.5 WAR)
Paul Skenes — $875,000 (3.4 WAR)
Riley Greene — $812,400 (3.0 WAR)
Hunter Brown — $807,400 (3.0 WAR)
Andy Pages — $770,000 (2.9 WAR)
Jacob Wilson — $760,000 (2.8 WAR)
Figures from ESPN Research were used throughout this story.
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