Spring statement: Rachel Reeves can make decisions on spending cuts without too much fallout for now – but worse could be yet to come

Published

1 month ago

March 25, 2025

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Rachel Reeves will keep her remarks short when she delivers the spring statement on Wednesday.

But the enormity of what she is saying will be lost on no one as the chancellor sets out the grim reality of the country’s finances.

Her economic update to the House of Commons will reveal a deteriorating economic outlook and rising borrowing costs, which has forced her to find spending cuts, which she’s left others to carry the can for (more on that in a bit).

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The independent Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) is expected to forecast that growth for 2025 has halved from 2% to 1%.

That, combined with rising debt repayment costs on government borrowing, has left the chancellor with a black hole in the public finances against the forecasts published at the budget in October.

Back then, Reeves had a £9.9bn cushion against her “iron-clad” fiscal rule that day-to-day spending must be funded through tax receipts not debt by 2029-30.

But that surplus has been wiped out in the ensuing six months – now she finds herself about £4bn in the red, according to those familiar with the forecasts.

That’s really uncomfortable for a chancellor who just months ago executed the biggest tax and spend budget in a generation with the promise that she would get the economy growing again.

At the first progress check, she looks to be failing and has been forced into finding spending cuts to make up the shortfall after ruling out her other two options – further tax rises or more borrowing via a loosening of her self-imposed fiscal rules.

‘World has changed’

When Reeves gets up on Wednesday, she will put it differently, saying the “world has changed” and all that means is the government must move “further and faster” to deliver the reforms that will drive growth.

But her opponents will be quick to lay economic woes at her door, arguing that the unexpected £25bn tax hike on employers’ national insurance contributions last October have choked off growth.

But it’s not just opposition from the Conservative benches that the chancellor is facing – it is opposition from within as she sets about cutting government spending to the tune of £15bn to fill that black hole.

Politically, her allies know how awkward it would have been for the chancellor to announce £5bn in welfare cuts to avoid breaking her own fiscal rules, with one acknowledging that those cuts had to be kept separate from the spring statement.

There’s also expected to be more than £5bn of extra cuts from public spending in the forecast period, which could see departments that don’t have protected budgets – education, justice, home – face real-term spending cuts by the end of the decade.

Not an emergency budget

We won’t see the detail of that until the Spending Review in June.

This is not an emergency budget because the chancellor isn’t embarking on a round of tax raising to fix the public finances.

But these are, however they are framed, emergency spending cuts designed to plug her black hole and that is politically difficult for a government that has promised no return to austerity if some parts of the public sector face deep cuts to stick with fiscal rules.

If that’s the macro picture, what about the “everyday economics” of peoples’ lives?

I’d point out two things here. On Wednesday, we will get to see where those £5bn of welfare cuts will fall as the government publishes the impact assessment that it held back last week.

Up to a million people could be affected by cuts, and the reality of who will be hit will pile on the pressure for Labour MPs already uncomfortable with cuts to health and disability benefits.

The second point is whether the government remains on course to deliver its key pledge to “put more money in the pockets of working people” during this parliament after the Joseph Rowntree Foundation think-tank produced analysis over the weekend saying living standards for all UK families are set to fall by 2030.

The chancellor told my colleague Trevor Phillips on Sunday that she “rejects” the analysis that the average family could be £1,400 worse off by 2030.

But that doesn’t mean that the forecasts published on Wednesday calculating real household disposable income per head won’t make for grim reading as the economic outlook deteriorates.

Nervousness in Labour

Ask around the party, and there is obvious nervousness about how this might land, with a degree of anxiety about the economic outlook and what that has in store for departmental budgets.

But there is recognition too from many MPs that the government has political space afforded by that whopping majority, to make these decisions on spending cuts without too much fallout – for now.

Because while Wednesday will be bad, worse could be yet to come.

Staring down the barrel

The chancellor is staring down the barrel of a possible global trade war that will only serve to create more economic uncertainty, even if the UK is spared from the worst tariffs by President Donald Trump.

The national insurance hike is also set to kick in next month, with employers across the piece sounding the warnings around investment, jobs and growth.

Six months ago, Reeves said she wouldn’t be coming back for more after she announced £40bn in tax rises in that massive first budget.

Six months on she is coming back for more, this time in the form of spending cuts. And in six months’ time, she may well have to come back for more in the form of tax rises or deeper cuts.

The spring statement was meant to be a run-of-the-mill economic update, but it has morphed into much more.

The chancellor now has the hard sell to make from a very hard place, that could soon become even tougher still.

Politics

IRS appoints Trish Turner to head crypto division amid resignations

Published

4 hours ago

May 6, 2025

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IRS appoints Trish Turner to head crypto division amid resignations

Veteran US Internal Revenue Service (IRS) official Trish Turner was appointed to lead the agency’s digital assets division following the departure of two key crypto-focused executives.

Turner, who has spent over 20 years at the IRS and most recently served as a senior adviser within the Digital Assets Office, will now head the unit, according to a report from Bloomberg Tax citing a person familiar with the situation.

Her promotion marks a significant leadership transition at a time when US crypto tax enforcement is facing both internal and external pressures.

On May 5, Sulolit “Raj” Mukherjee and Seth Wilks, two private-sector experts brought in to lead the IRS’s crypto unit, exited after roughly a year in their roles.

Mukherjee served as compliance and implementation executive director, while Wilks oversaw strategy and development. Wilks announced his departure on LinkedIn, while Mukherjee confirmed his decision in a statement to Bloomberg Tax.

“The reality is that federal employees have faced a very difficult environment over the past few months,” Wilks wrote. “If stepping aside helps preserve someone else’s job, then I am at peace with the decision.”

IRS ramps up crypto scrutiny

The IRS has ramped up its focus on cryptocurrency in recent years, increasing audits and criminal probes targeting digital asset transactions.

It also attempted to introduce broad crypto broker reporting requirements, which drew sharp criticism from industry stakeholders and was eventually overturned by President Donald Trump.

Set to take effect in 2027, the so-called IRS DeFi broker rule would have expanded the tax authority’s existing reporting requirements to include DeFi platforms, requiring them to disclose gross proceeds from crypto sales, including information regarding taxpayers involved in the transactions.

Turner’s leadership also comes during a shift in Washington’s approach to crypto regulation.

With the return of the Trump administration in January, federal agencies have scaled back regulations perceived as burdensome to digital asset innovation.

For instance, the Securities and Exchange Commission has dropped or paused over a dozen enforcement cases against crypto companies. Additionally, the Department of Justice has announced the dissolution of its cryptocurrency enforcement unit, signaling a softer approach to the sector.

Internally, the IRS is also navigating instability. Over 23,000 employees have reportedly expressed interest in resigning after Trump reintroduced a deferred resignation policy, raising concerns about long-term staffing and morale within the agency.

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OKX exec warns against hype amid real-world asset tokenization boom

Published

4 hours ago

May 6, 2025

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OKX exec warns against hype amid real-world asset tokenization boom

The CEO of crypto exchange OKX’s Middle East and North Africa (MENA) division has called on the industry to prioritize real-world utility as interest in tokenizing real-world assets (RWAs) continues to grow.

In a Cointelegraph interview at the Token20249 event in Dubai, OKX MENA CEO Rifad Mahasneh warned that while tokenization is promising, projects must “clearly demonstrate” the benefits of tokenizing specific assets.

“In some cases, we’re tokenizing things that don’t need tokenization, but in some cases, we’re tokenizing things that actually give you real, everyday value, right? And if you can see that everyday value, then that is a promising project,” Mahasneh told Cointelegraph.

He said hype can drive project growth in the Web3 space, but providing everyday value should be the priority.

RWA tokenization gains traction in the UAE

Mahasneh’s comments come amid an increase in real-world asset tokenization projects in the Middle East, including the United Arab Emirates.

On May 1, MultiBank Group signed a $3 billion RWA agreement with the UAE-based real-estate firm MAG and blockchain infrastructure provider Mavryk — the largest RWA initiative worldwide to date.

In addition to billions in RWA deals, the UAE government has started working on RWA tokenization. On March 19, the Dubai Land Department — the government agency responsible for promoting, organizing and registering real estate in Dubai — announced a pilot phase of its real-estate tokenization project. The agency is working with Dubai’s Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority (VARA), the emirate’s crypto regulator.

On Jan. 9, RWA project Mantra also signed a $1 billion deal with Damac Group to tokenize the assets of the UAE-based conglomerate. However, months later, Mantra saw one of the biggest token collapses in crypto history, wiping out billions in market capitalization on April 13.

Mahasneh told Cointelegraph that the region’s clear regulations help drive bigger institutions to get into tokenization and crypto. He said regulatory clarity allows understanding of how key players in the space, like exchanges, are governed.

UAE stablecoin framework gives institutions confidence

The executive also praised the region’s progress in stablecoin regulations. In June 2024, the Central Bank of the UAE approved a regulatory framework for stablecoin licensing. This clarified the issuance, supervision and licensing of dirham-backed payment tokens.

According to Mahasneh, this demonstrates the UAE’s speed in regulating crypto-related technologies. The executive also highlighted that the central bank’s involvement gives institutions extra confidence in entering the business.

“Other markets are still debating whether they should have crypto regulations. Here, we moved into developing stablecoin regulations. For an investor, you want to know that your stablecoin is regulated. That’s a big plus,” Mahasneh said.

Since then, major players like Tether have joined the race by issuing a dirham-pegged stablecoin. On April 29, institutions like Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth fund, the Abu Dhabi Developmental Holding Company (ADQ), First Abu Dhabi Bank and the International Holding Company partnered to launch a dirham-pegged stablecoin, pending regulatory approval.

Magazine: Crypto wanted to overthrow banks, now it’s becoming them in stablecoin fight

Politics

US Senate crypto bills stall amid Trump ties and ethics concerns

Published

5 hours ago

May 6, 2025

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US Senate crypto bills stall amid Trump ties and ethics concerns

Efforts to pass crypto legislation in the US Senate face mounting resistance amid growing ethical concerns around US President Donald Trump’s ties to crypto.

In a May 5 letter to the Office of Government Ethics, Senators Elizabeth Warren and Jeff Merkley said that Trump and his family stand to personally profit from an investment involving UAE state-backed firm MGX, crypto exchange Binance and World Liberty Financial (WLFI).

The senators called for an urgent probe, warning the deal may violate the US Constitution’s Emoluments Clause and federal bribery statutes.

At the center of the controversy is WLFI’s USD1 stablecoin, reportedly chosen for a $2 billion investment MGX plans to make into Binance.

The senators said the transaction amounts to a potential backdoor for foreign influence and self-enrichment, with Trump’s allies allegedly set to receive hundreds of millions of dollars:

“This deal raises the troubling prospect that the Trump and Witkoff families could expand the use of their stablecoin as an avenue to profit from foreign corruption.”

Further complicating ethics concerns, Trump hosted a $1.5 million-per-plate dinner on May 5 at his golf club in Sterling, Virginia. The event came just days after hosting a $1 million-per-plate fundraiser for the MAGA super PAC.

He also plans to hold a gala dinner with major Official Trump (TRUMP) memecoin holders on May 22, despite multiple US lawmakers expressing concerns.

GENIUS Act faces roadblocks

The Trump family’s controversial $2 billion crypto deal comes as the Senate prepares to vote on the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act and other crypto-related bills.

The fallout is already being felt in Congress. Some Democratic lawmakers are pushing for additional hearings before advancing any legislation, while others question whether Trump’s personal stake in digital assets is undermining bipartisan support for crypto regulation.

On May 5, Senate Majority Leader John Thune signaled a willingness to amend the GOP-backed stablecoin legislation to pass the bill in the coming weeks.

Speaking to reporters, Thune said changes can be made on the floor and that he is waiting to hear what Democrats are asking for, per a report from Politico.

Internal GOP challenges also remain, with Senator Rand Paul expressing uncertainty about backing the bill, according to the report.

The stalling isn’t limited to the Senate. House Financial Services Committee ranking member Representative Maxine Waters plans to block a Republican-led event discussing digital assets on May 6.

The hearing, “American Innovation and the Future of Digital Assets,” will discuss a new crypto markets draft discussion paper pitched by the House agricultural and financial services committee chairs, Representatives Glenn Thompson and French Hill, respectively.

Crypto community slams political pushback

Prominent crypto figures are speaking out as political resistance threatens to derail stablecoin legislation in the Senate.

“Elizabeth Warren and Chuck Schumer haven’t learned their lesson,” Tyler Winklevoss, co-founder of Gemini, posted on X.

“If they want Democrats to continue losing elections, they will continue standing in front of crypto legislation like the stablecoin bill which they are stalling out in the Senate.”