What is in the Black Sea ceasefire deal between Russia and Ukraine – and how significant is it?
Russia and Ukraine have agreed to a Black Sea ceasefire deal.
The agreement came after Ukraine and US delegations held talks in Saudi Arabia today.
But what is the Black Sea deal – and is it a full ceasefire?
Follow live: Black Sea ceasefire deal reached after Saudi talks
What is in the Black Sea ceasefire deal?
These are the main aspects of the deal set out by the US:
• The US and Russia have agreed to safe navigation in the Black Sea, which had been a key focus of talks this week
• Additionally, they agreed to work together on measures banning strikes on energy infrastructure in Russia and Ukraine
• Washington will also help to restore Russia’s access to global markets for agricultural and fertiliser exports, the White House said – although where this leaves Western sanctions against Russia is unclear at this stage.
The US also said it has agreed it will remain committed to returning forcibly transferred Ukrainian children.
Ukraine’s defence minister Rustem Umerov confirmed the agreement, but added that Kyiv maintains any movement by Russian military vessels outside of eastern part of the Black Sea will constitute violation of the spirit of this agreement.
“In this case Ukraine will have full right to exercise right to self-defence,” he said.
He added: “All parties agreed to develop measures for implementing the presidents’ agreement to ban strikes against energy facilities of Ukraine and Russia.”
The Kremlin has confirmed that it has agreed to the ceasefire but there has been a disagreement over the timing and conditions.
While Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he understood the ceasefire would start immediately after the US announcement, Moscow has countered, saying it will only come into force after Western sanctions are lifted against companies involved in food and fertiliser exports.
How significant is this?
The deal won’t do much to end the war, according to Sky News’ security analyst Michael Clarke.
He says Russia will be quite happy dragging the US through peace talks without making any meaningful concessions.
The deal is one the US “can boast about” – without it changing much on the ground for Ukraine, he says.
“The Russians will be quite happy about that because they’ll just keep going down more and more rabbit holes and they’ll present little gains for the US,” he explains.
“But they won’t address the central issue,” he says.
No real deal can be agreed unless Donald Trump starts putting meaningful pressure on Vladimir Putin, he says.
A Ukrainian patrol boat in the Black Sea in 2024. Pic: Reuters
“Unless the Americans are prepared to pressure Russia as opposed to just keeping offering them more advantages, the war will just go on.”
He also says Mr Trump will stay interested until it “gets difficult”, at which point he’ll “just go onto something else”.
“He’s a disrupter, but when disruption becomes hard to follow through, he goes on to the next topic, and I think that’s what will happen.”
Why is Russia willing to agree to a ceasefire at sea now?
Under the ceasefire at sea, Russia would once again be able to export farm produce and fertiliser through the Black Sea, getting relief from sanctions imposed by Western countries.
The US even referred to helping Russia access the world market again for agricultural products in its statement.
According to Prof Clarke, Russia is happy to continue fighting on land, where it is slowly making gains, while signing up to something that protects its ships at sea – where Ukraine has been growing in confidence and damaging Russian vessels.
And it helps with Russia’s goal of getting its equipment out of the Black Sea.
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Why is the Black Sea so important to Russia?
Today’s agreement has come in the midst of negotiations between Russia, the US and Ukraine in Riyadh in recent days centred on the Black Sea.
But the basis of the negotiations was a deal to secure shipping there that collapsed more than 18 months ago.
That UN-backed deal was negotiated in July 2022 between Turkey, the UN and Russia as a way of ensuring that Ukraine, one of the breadbaskets of the world, could keep exporting grain via its southern ports without being attacked.
It was known as the Black Sea grain initiative.
That deal benefited Russia, as it also allowed for greater Russian agricultural exports – but but Moscow pulled out of the initiative in July 2023 after accusing the West of reneging on this part of the agreement.
This meant Russia stopped granting safe passage to cargo ships going to and from Ukraine, and the country’s grain exports subsequently slumped.
But Russia is now said to be keen to revive parts of the grain deal.
What happened the last time Ukraine and Russia had a ceasefire agreement?
Last week, Mr Putin agreed to an immediate 30-day pause in strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
However, within 24 hours Ukraine and Russia accused the other of breaking the pledge.
Donald Trump has said he will speak to Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy separately on Monday in a bid to secure a ceasefire deal between Russia and Ukraine.
The US president made the announcement on Truth Social – shortly after the Ukrainian president condemned Russia for the “deliberate killing of civilians” after a drone hit a bus in north-eastern Ukraine.
Mr Trump said he will speak to Mr Putin over the phone. He will then talk with Mr Zelenskyy and “various members of NATO”, he wrote.
In an all-caps post, he said: “HOPEFULLY IT WILL BE A PRODUCTIVE DAY, A CEASEFIRE WILL TAKE PLACE, AND THIS VERY VIOLENT WAR, A WAR THAT SHOULD HAVE NEVER HAPPENED, WILL END. GOD BLESS US ALL!!!”
The Ukrainian town of Bilopillia today declared a period of mourning lasting until Monday after nine people were killed in a Russian drone attack – which occurred just hours after Kyiv and Moscow held peace talks.
Seven others were injured, Ukrainian authorities said. The bus was evacuating civilians from a frontline area when the drone hit, the country’s national police said.
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Nine killed in Russian strike on bus
A “father, mother and daughter” were among the dead, Mr Zelenskyy said, writing on Telegram: “All the deceased were civilians. And the Russians could not have failed to understand what kind of vehicle they were targeting.”
The attack has also been condemned by British Foreign Secretary David Lammy, who said he was “appalled”.
“If Putin is serious about peace, Russia must agree to a full and immediate ceasefire, as Ukraine has done,” he wrote on X.
Representatives for Kyiv and Moscow met for direct peace talks in Istanbul, Turkey, just hours before the drone attack.
While the discussions – which were not attended by the Mr Putin or Mr Zelenskyy – did not result in a truce, both countries agreed to exchange 1,000 prisoners in their biggest swap yet.
Ukraine’s intelligence chief, Kyrylo Budanov, said on national television the exchange could happen as early as next week.
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What happened at Ukraine talks?
Russia ‘threatened eternal war’ at peace talks
After a Ukrainian official yesterday said Russia made “unacceptable” demands during the discussions, a source from the Kyiv delegation has now told Sky News that Moscow threatened “eternal war”.
Separately, a senior Kyiv official said Russia’s proposed ceasefire terms included the full withdrawal of troops from four regions of Ukraine: Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson and Luhansk.
Moscow also called for international recognition that those regions and Crimea – annexed in 2014 – are Russian and for Ukraine to become a neutral state, with no allied troops stationed there, they said.
The Kremlin declined to comment on the matter.
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Ukraine has rallied support from its allies following the talks, and a number have spoken out.
French President Emmanuel Macron said: “Today, what do we have? Nothing. And so I tell you, faced with President Putin’s cynicism, I am sure that President Trump, mindful of the credibility of the United States, will react.”
The EU is working on a new package of sanctions against Moscow, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said.
Israel and Hamas said ceasefire talks have resumed in Qatar – even as Israeli forces ramped up a bombing campaign and mobilised for a massive new ground assault.
Earlier, the Israeli military said it had been “conducting extensive strikes and mobilising troops” as part of preparations to expand operations in Gaza.
Israel’s defence minister Israel Katz said Hamas had “refused to discuss negotiations without a cessation of the war”, but after the airstrikes and the mobilisation of forces the militant group’s representatives “have agreed to sit in a room and seriously discuss the deal”.
“Israel emphasises that if the talks do not progress, the [military] operation will continue,” he added.
A Hamas source told Sky News that ceasefire talks began in Doha on Saturday morning.
Palestinians inspect the site of an Israeli strike on a house in Jabalia. Pic: Reuters
Tents were targeted in an airstrike on Saturday at al Aqsa Hospital in Deir al Balah in central Gaza. Pic: AP
Hamas official Taher al-Nono told Reuters news agency that the two sides were involved in discussions without “pre-conditions”.
He added Hamas was “keen to exert all the effort needed” to help mediators make the negotiations a success.
More than 150 people have been killed in Israeli strikes in the last 24 hours, according to the Hamas-run health ministry in Gaza.
This week has been one of the deadliest phases of bombardment since a truce collapsed in March and marked a significant escalation in Israel’s offensive.
The Israeli military’s preparations to expand operations in Gaza have included the build-up of tanks and troops along the border.
It is part of “Operation Gideon Chariot”, which Israel says is aimed at defeating Hamas and getting its hostages back.
Israeli tanks near the Israel-Gaza border on Saturday. Pic: Reuters
An Israeli tank being relocated to a position near the Gaza border on Friday. Pic: AP
An Israeli defence official said earlier this month that the operation would not be launched before Donald Trump concluded his visit to the Middle East.
The US president ended his trip on Friday, with no apparent progress towards a new peace deal.
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Forensic look at Israel’s escalation
Meanwhile, on Saturday, leaders at the annual summit of the Arab League in Baghdad said they were trying to reach a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza.
They also promised to contribute to the reconstruction of the territory once the war stops.
The meeting comes two months after Israel ended a ceasefire reached with the Hamas militant group.
A man carrying the body of a child killed in Israeli airstrikes on Friday in Jabalia, northern Gaza. Pic: Reuters
Parts of northern Gaza have been completely destroyed in the bombing campaign. Pic: Reuters
Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on 5 May that Israel was planning an expanded, intensive offensive against Hamas as his security cabinet approved plans that could involve seizing Gaza and controlling aid.
This week, Israel said it had bombed the European Hospital because it was home to an underground Hamas base, but Sky News analysis has cast doubt on its evidence.
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Israel’s goal is the elimination of Hamas, which attacked southern Israel on 7 October 2023, killing around 1,200 people and seizing about 250 hostages.
Its military response has killed more than 53,000 people, according to the Hamas-run health ministry in Gaza, which does not differentiate between civilians and combatants.
World
The chilling moment in Russia-Ukraine peace talks – as Putin makes mockery of Trump’s efforts to end war
Vladimir Putin made a mockery this week of Donald Trump’s efforts to end the war in Ukraine.
Far from punishing him for it, the US president went out of his way to dodge calls to get tough with the Russian leader.
Follow latest updates on Ukraine war
On Sunday, President Trump called on leaders of both Russia and Ukraine to meet.
He posted: “President Putin of Russia wants to meet on Thursday, in Turkey, to negotiate a possible end to the BLOODBATH. Ukraine should agree to this, IMMEDIATELY.”
That post let the Russian leader off the hook. Only the day before, Putin had been ordered by Ukraine’s allies, including America, to agree to a 30-day unconditional ceasefire.
Pic: AP
The Russian president had swerved that demand, suggesting talks instead.
“If the ceasefire is not respected, the US and its partners will impose further sanctions,” Trump posted before swivelling and backing Putin’s proposals for talks instead.
Undeterred, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy accepted the call.
Putin though refused to go, sending officials instead.
And yet there was no reprimand from the US president. Instead, he chose to undermine the talks he had himself called for.
“Look, nothing is going to happen until Putin and I get together,” he told reporters on Air Force One. So much for that then.
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What happened at Ukraine talks?
It is what happened in those talks though that should give the US president the greatest pause for thought about Putin’s intentions – as it does in Kyiv.
The message they brought was blunt and belligerent, threatening eternal war.
“We don’t want war, but we’re ready to fight for a year, two, three – however long it takes,” lead Russian negotiator Vladimir Medinsky is reported to have said. “We fought Sweden for 21 years. How long are you ready to fight?”
Russian negotiator Vladimir Medinsky. Pic: AP
Far from offering a compromise, they are reported to have demanded the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the four regions they have partially seized by force and the capitulation of another two, just for good measure.
And there was a chilling moment when the Russians are reported to have threatened their interlocutors like gangsters.
“Maybe some of those sitting here at this table will lose more of their loved ones,” Mednisky said. Russia is prepared to fight forever.
For Sergiy Kyslytsya, Ukraine’s deputy foreign minister, that was personal.
Max, his 23-year-old nephew, lost his life fighting the Russians in 2022 not long after their illegal and unprovoked invasion began.
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Sergiy Kyslytsya, Ukraine’s deputy foreign minister. Pic: AP
At the end of this week, Putin appears scornful of Western efforts to end this war through a ceasefire and negotiations and Trump seems happy to let him get away with it.
Even Fox News, normally slavishly subservient to Trump, is wondering what gives.
Its anchor Bret Baier is no Jeremy Paxman, but in an interview last night asked Donald Trump 10 times if he might finally now put pressure on Putin.
The US president ducked and dived, talking about the money he had made in his Gulf tour, Zelenskyy’s shortcomings, Biden, and Iran instead. But he did not give a straight answer to the question.
With performances like that, Putin has nothing to worry about. Trump’s position though seems increasingly untenable.
Ukraine’s European allies though should be alarmed. They threatened Russia with sanctions and retaliation last weekend if he rejected a ceasefire. He now has.
With or without America, will they be good to their word?
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