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The Office for Budget Responsibility has halved the UK growth forecast for 2025 from 2% to 1%, Chancellor Rachel Reeves has said.

However, the fiscal watchdog said that while growth has been downgraded for this year, it had been upgraded for every year after for the rest of this parliament – which is due to end in 2029.

The chancellor said she is “not satisfied with the numbers” for this year as she delivered her long-awaited spring statement in the House of Commons this afternoon.

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But, she explained, the OBR has forecast growth to hit 1.9% in 2026, 1.8% in 2027, 1.7% in 2028, and 1.8% in 2029.

She told MPs: “There are no shortcuts to economic growth. It will take long-term decisions. It will take hard yards. It will take time for the reforms we are introducing to be felt in the every day economy.

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Rachel Reeves has confirmed that the OBR has downgraded the UK’s economic growth forecast for this year from 2% to 1%.

“It is right that the Office for Budget Responsibility consider the evidence and look carefully at measures before recognising a growth impact in their forecast.”

The chancellor pointed to changes to the National Planning Policy Framework, saying mandatory housing targets and bringing “grey belt” land into scope for development will “permanently increase the level of real GDP by 0.2% by 2029-30”.

This will bring an “additional £6.8bn in our economy and by 0.4% of GDP within the next 10 years”, she said.

Ms Reeves also highlighted reforms to the pension system and a national wealth fund, adding it was part of a “serious plan” for economic growth.

Also announced in the spring statement today:

  • The budget will move from a deficit of £36.1bn in 2025/26 and £13.4bn in 2026/27, to a surplus of £6bn in 2027/28, £7.1bn in 2028/29 and £9.9bn in 2029/30;
  • The Office for Budget Responsibility estimates Labour’s cuts to the welfare budget will save £4.8bn, with changes going further than initially thought;
  • Reeves says the health element of universal credit will be cut by half and frozen for new claimants;
  • There are no more tax rises today, but the chancellor claims she’ll raise an extra billion pounds by cracking down more on tax evasion;
  • Day-to-day spending will be protected, other than the aid budget, with spending increasing above inflation every year;
  • The defence budget will get a £2.2bn boost for next year, paving the way for spending eventually hitting 2.5% of GDP;
  • House building will hit a 40-year-high thanks to Labour’s planning reforms.

The chancellor confirmed that a voluntary redundancy scheme is set to launch for civil servants as part of her mission to “make government leaner”. She said this will deliver £3.5bn in “day-to-day savings by 2029-30”.

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Sky’s Economics and Data Editor Ed Conway goes through the latest economic data following the chancellor’s spring statement.

Shortly afterwards, Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch accused Labour of financial “chaos”.

She said the spring statement was “all smoke and mirrors”, adding: “I remember the last budget when Rachel Reeves said she was smashing glass ceilings, now it feels like the roof is falling over all our heads.”

A handful of Labour MPs were unimpressed with the moves around welfare, with Debbie Abrahams – the MP for Oldham East and Saddleworth – claiming “all the evidence points to cuts in welfare leading to severe poverty and worsened health conditions”.

An impact assessment into Labour’s welfare reforms, which include narrowing the eligibility criteria for personal independence payments (PIP), found there could be an additional 250,000 people in “relative poverty” by 2030 due to the changes.

Richard Burgon, the Labour MP for Leeds East, said “taking away the personal independence payments” from disabled people is an “especially cruel choice”.

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Jess Phillips condemns ‘idiot’ councils that don’t believe they have grooming gang problem

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Jess Phillips condemns 'idiot' councils that don't believe they have grooming gang problem

Safeguarding minister Jess Phillips has told Sky News that councils that believe they don’t have a problem with grooming gangs are “idiots” – as she denied Elon Musk influenced the decision to have a national inquiry on the subject. 

The minister said: “I don’t follow Elon Musk’s advice on anything although maybe I too would like to go to Mars.

“Before anyone even knew Elon Musk’s name, I was working with the victims of these crimes.”

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Elon Musk. Pic: Reuters
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Elon Musk. Pic: Reuters

Mr Musk had called Ms Phillips a “rape genocide apologist” in one of a series of inflammatory posts on X in January and said she should go to jail.

Mr Musk, then a close aide of US President Donald Trump, sparked a significant political row with his comments – with the Conservative Party and Reform UK calling for a new public inquiry into grooming gangs.

At the time, Ms Phillips denied a request for a public inquiry into child sexual exploitation in Oldham on the basis that it should be done at a local level.

But the government announced a national inquiry after Baroness Casey’s rapid audit on grooming gangs, which was published in June.

Asked if she thought there was, in the words of Baroness Casey, “over representation” among suspects of Asian and Pakistani men, Ms Phillips replied: “My own experience of working with many young girls in my area – yes there is a problem. There are different parts of the country where the problem will look different, organised crime has different flavours across the board.

“But I have to look at the evidence… and the government reacts to the evidence.”

Ms Phillips also said the home secretary has written to all police chiefs telling them that data collection on ethnicity “has to change”, to ensure that it is always recorded, promising “we will legislate to change the way this [collection] is done if necessary”.

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Operation Beaconport has since been established, led by the National Crime Agency (NCA), and will be reviewing more than 1,200 closed cases of child sexual exploitation.

Ms Phillips revealed that at least “five, six” councils have asked to be a part of the national review – and denounced councils that believed they don’t have a problem with grooming gangs as “idiots”.

“I don’t want [the inquiry] just to go over places that have already had inquiries and find things the Casey had already identified,” she said.

She confirmed that a shortlist for a chair has been drawn up, and she expects the inquiry to be finished within three years.

Ms Phillips’s comments come after she announced £426,000 of funding to roll out artificial intelligence tools across all 43 police forces in England and Wales to speed up investigations into modern slavery, child sex abuse and county lines gangs.

Some 13 forces have access to the AI apps, which the Home Office says have saved more than £20m and 16,000 hours for investigators.

The apps can translate large amounts of text in foreign languages and analyse data to find relationships between suspects.

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Prince Harry cleared of bullying claims by report into ‘damaging dispute’ at his charity

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Prince Harry cleared of bullying claims by report into 'damaging dispute' at his charity

The Charity Commission has found no evidence of bullying or harassment at a charity set up by Prince Harry.

But it has found that an internal dispute at Sentebale “severely impacted the charity’s reputation”.

Earlier this year its chair, Dr Sophie Chandauka, accused the Duke of Sussex of “harassment and bullying at scale”.

Her comments followed the departure of the prince and several others from the organisation in March.

They had asked her to step down, alleging it was in the “best interest of the charity”.

Dr Chandauka told Sky News that Harry had “authorised the release of a damaging piece of news to the outside world” without informing her or Sentebale directors.

The Duke and Duchess of Sussex declined to offer any formal response.

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Why was Prince Harry accused of ‘bullying’?

‘Strong perception of ill-treatment’

The Charity Commission said it was reporting after a “damaging internal dispute emerged” and has “criticised all parties to the dispute for allowing it to play out publicly”.

That “severely impacted the charity’s reputation and risked undermining public trust in charities more generally”, it said.

But it found no evidence of “widespread or systemic bullying or harassment, including misogyny or misogynoir at the charity”.

Nevertheless, it did acknowledge the “strong perception of ill-treatment felt by a number of parties to the dispute and the impact this may have had on them personally”.

It also found no evidence of “‘over-reach’ by either the chair or the Duke of Sussex as patron”.

‘Confusion exacerbated tensions’

But it was critical of the charity’s “lack of clarity in delegations to the chair which allowed for misunderstandings to occur”.

And it has “identified a lack of clarity around role descriptions and internal policies as the primary cause for weaknesses in the charity’s management”.

That “confusion exacerbated tensions, which culminated in a dispute and multiple resignations of trustees and both founding patrons”.

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Why was Prince Harry accused of ‘bullying’?

Harry: Report falls troublingly short

A spokesperson for Prince Harry said it was “unsurprising” that the commission had announced “no findings of wrongdoing in relation to Sentebale’s co-founder and former patron, Prince Harry, Duke of Sussex”.

They added: “Despite all that, their report falls troublingly short in many regards, primarily the fact that the consequences of the current chair’s actions will not be borne by her, but by the children who rely on Sentebale’s support.”

They said the prince will “now focus on finding new ways to continue supporting the children of Lesotho and Botswana”.

Dr Chandauka said: “I appreciate the Charity Commission for its conclusions which confirm the governance concerns I raised privately in February 2025.”

But she added: “The unexpected adverse media campaign that was launched by those who resigned on 24 March 2025 has caused incalculable damage and offers a glimpse of the unacceptable behaviours displayed in private.”

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Police investigating grooming gangs given AI tools to speed up cold case work

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Police investigating grooming gangs given AI tools to speed up cold case work

All police forces investigating grooming gangs in England and Wales will be given access to new AI tools to help speed up their investigations.

The artificial intelligence tools are already thought to have saved officers in 13 forces more than £20m and 16,000 hours of investigation time.

The apps can translate large amounts of text in foreign languages from mobile phones seized by police, and analyse a mass of digital data to find patterns and relationships between suspects.

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Grooming gang inquiry: ‘Our chance for justice’

‘We must punish perpetrators’

The rollout is part of a £426,000 boost for the Tackling Organised Exploitation (TOEX) programme, which supports officers to investigate complex cases involving modern slavery, county lines and child sex abuse.

The increased access to the AI technology follows Baroness Casey’s recommendation for a national operation to review cold grooming gang cases.

That operation will review more than 1,200 closed cases of child sexual exploitation.

“The sexual exploitation of children by grooming gangs is one of the most horrific crimes, and we must punish perpetrators, provide justice for victims and survivors, and protect today’s children from harm,” said safeguarding minister Jess Phillips.

“Baroness Casey flagged the need to upgrade police information systems to improve investigations and safeguard children at risk. Today we are investing in these critical tools.”

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Key takeaways from the Casey review

Lack of ethnicity data ‘a major failing’

Police forces have also been instructed by the home secretary to collect ethnicity data, as recommended by Baroness Casey.

Her June report found the lack of data showing sex offenders’ ethnicity and nationality in grooming gangs was “a major failing over the last decade or more”.

She found that officials avoided the issue of ethnicity for fear of being called racist, but there were enough convictions of Asian men “to have warranted closer examination”.

The government has launched a national inquiry into the abuse and further details are expected to be announced in the coming weeks.

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