OBR slashes UK growth forecast for 2025 but upgrades it for rest of parliament, chancellor says

Published

9 months ago

March 26, 2025

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The Office for Budget Responsibility has halved the UK growth forecast for 2025 from 2% to 1%, Chancellor Rachel Reeves has said.

However, the fiscal watchdog said that while growth has been downgraded for this year, it had been upgraded for every year after for the rest of this parliament – which is due to end in 2029.

The chancellor said she is “not satisfied with the numbers” for this year as she delivered her long-awaited spring statement in the House of Commons this afternoon.

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But, she explained, the OBR has forecast growth to hit 1.9% in 2026, 1.8% in 2027, 1.7% in 2028, and 1.8% in 2029.

She told MPs: “There are no shortcuts to economic growth. It will take long-term decisions. It will take hard yards. It will take time for the reforms we are introducing to be felt in the every day economy.

“It is right that the Office for Budget Responsibility consider the evidence and look carefully at measures before recognising a growth impact in their forecast.”

The chancellor pointed to changes to the National Planning Policy Framework, saying mandatory housing targets and bringing “grey belt” land into scope for development will “permanently increase the level of real GDP by 0.2% by 2029-30”.

This will bring an “additional £6.8bn in our economy and by 0.4% of GDP within the next 10 years”, she said.

Ms Reeves also highlighted reforms to the pension system and a national wealth fund, adding it was part of a “serious plan” for economic growth.

Also announced in the spring statement today:

The budget will move from a deficit of £36.1bn in 2025/26 and £13.4bn in 2026/27, to a surplus of £6bn in 2027/28, £7.1bn in 2028/29 and £9.9bn in 2029/30;
The Office for Budget Responsibility estimates Labour’s cuts to the welfare budget will save £4.8bn, with changes going further than initially thought;
Reeves says the health element of universal credit will be cut by half and frozen for new claimants;
There are no more tax rises today, but the chancellor claims she’ll raise an extra billion pounds by cracking down more on tax evasion;
Day-to-day spending will be protected, other than the aid budget, with spending increasing above inflation every year;
The defence budget will get a £2.2bn boost for next year, paving the way for spending eventually hitting 2.5% of GDP;
House building will hit a 40-year-high thanks to Labour’s planning reforms.

The chancellor confirmed that a voluntary redundancy scheme is set to launch for civil servants as part of her mission to “make government leaner”. She said this will deliver £3.5bn in “day-to-day savings by 2029-30”.

Shortly afterwards, Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch accused Labour of financial “chaos”.

She said the spring statement was “all smoke and mirrors”, adding: “I remember the last budget when Rachel Reeves said she was smashing glass ceilings, now it feels like the roof is falling over all our heads.”

A handful of Labour MPs were unimpressed with the moves around welfare, with Debbie Abrahams – the MP for Oldham East and Saddleworth – claiming “all the evidence points to cuts in welfare leading to severe poverty and worsened health conditions”.

An impact assessment into Labour’s welfare reforms, which include narrowing the eligibility criteria for personal independence payments (PIP), found there could be an additional 250,000 people in “relative poverty” by 2030 due to the changes.

Richard Burgon, the Labour MP for Leeds East, said “taking away the personal independence payments” from disabled people is an “especially cruel choice”.

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Watchdog criticises ‘unprecedented’ government offer to delay local elections – as five councils confirm requests for postponement

Published

1 day ago

December 19, 2025

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Watchdog criticises 'unprecedented' government offer to delay local elections – as five councils confirm requests for postponement

The elections watchdog has criticised the government for offering to consider delaying 63 local council elections next year – as five authorities confirmed to Sky News that they would ask for a postponement.

On Thursday, hours before parliament began its Christmas recess, the government revealed that councils were being sent a letter asking if they thought elections should be delayed in their areas due to challenges around delivering local government reorganisation plans.

The chief executive of the Electoral Commission, Vijay Rangarajan, hit out at the announcement on Friday, saying he was “concerned” that some elections could be postponed, with some having already been deferred from 2025.

“We are disappointed by both the timing and substance of the statement. Scheduled elections should, as a rule, go ahead as planned, and only be postponed in exceptional circumstances,” he said in a statement.

“Decisions on any postponements will not be taken until mid-January, less than three months before the scheduled May 2026 elections are due to begin.

“This uncertainty is unprecedented and will not help campaigners and administrators who need time to prepare for their important roles.”

Mr Rangarajan added: “We very much recognise the pressures on local government, but these late changes do not help administrators. Parties and candidates have already been preparing for some time, and will be understandably concerned.”

He said “capacity constraints” were not a “legitimate reason for delaying long planned elections”, which risked “affecting the legitimacy of local decision-making and damaging public confidence”.

The watchdog chief also said there was “a clear conflict of interest in asking existing councils to decide how long it will be before they are answerable to voters”.

Sky News contacted the 63 councils that have been sent the letter about potentially delaying their elections.

At the time of publication, 17 authorities had replied with their decisions, while 33 said they would make up their minds before the government’s deadline of 15 January.

Many councils told Sky News they were surprised at yesterday’s announcement, saying that they had been fully intending to hold their polls as scheduled.

They said they were now working to understand the appropriate democratic mechanism for deciding whether to request a postponement of elections. Some local authorities believe it should be a decision made by their full council, while others will leave it up to council leaders or cabinet members to decide.

Multiple councils also emphasised in statements to Sky News that the ultimate decision to delay elections lay with the government.

Reform UK has threatened legal action against ministers, accusing Labour and the Tories of “colluding” to postpone elections in order to lock other parties out of power – a sentiment echoed by Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey.

But shadow local government secretary Sir James Cleverly told Sky News this morning that the Conservative Party “wants these elections to go ahead”. Sky News understands that the national party is making that position clear to local leaders.

A spokesperson for the Ministry of Housing, Communities, and Local Government, said it was taking a “locally-led approach”, and emphasised that “councils are in the best position to judge the impact of postponements on their area”.

They added: “These are exceptional circumstances where councils have told us they’re struggling to prepare for resource-intensive elections to councils that will shortly be abolished, while also reorganising into more efficient authorities that can better serve local residents.

“There is a clear precedent for postponing local elections where local government reorganisation is in progress, as happened in 2019 and 2022.”

The five councils that confirmed they would be seeking postponements were:

Blackburn with Darwen Council (Labour);
Chorley Borough Council (Labour);
East Sussex County Council (Conservative minority);
Hastings Borough Council (Green minority);
West Sussex County Council (Conservative).

The councils in Chorley, and East and West Sussex, had decided prior to Thursday’s government announcement that they would request a delay.

An East Sussex County Council spokesperson told Sky News: “It is welcome that the government is listening to local leaders and has heard the case for focussing our resources on delivery in East Sussex, particularly with devolution and reorganisation of local government, as well as delivering services to residents, such high priorities.”

They also pointed to the cost of electing councillors for a term of just one year, and argued that it would be “more prudent for just one set of elections to be held in 2027”.

West Sussex County Council echoed those reasons and said it would cost taxpayers across the county £9m to hold elections in 2026, 2027, and 2028, as currently planned.

Chorley and Blackburn councils also cited the cost of delivering elections, and said they would prefer that money be spent on delivering the local government reorganisation and delivering services to local residents.

Meanwhile, 12 councils confirmed to Sky News that they would not be requesting delays:

Basingstoke and Deane Borough Council (Liberal Democrat-Independents);
Broxbourne Borough Council (Conservative);
Colchester City Council (Labour-Liberal Democrat);
Eastleigh Borough Council (Liberal Democrat);
Essex County Council (Conservative);
Hart District Council (Liberal Democrat-Community Campaign);
Hastings Borough Council (Green minority);
Isle of Wight Council (no overall control);
Newcastle-under-Lyme Borough Council (Conservative);
Portsmouth City Council (Liberal Democrat minority);
Rushmoor Borough Council (Labour minority);
Southampton City Council (Labour).

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Samourai co-founder claims Biden-era lawfare in calling for Trump pardon

Published

1 day ago

December 19, 2025

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Samourai co-founder claims Biden-era lawfare in calling for Trump pardon

Keonne Rodriguez, who pleaded guilty to one felony count related to his role at Samourai Wallet, is calling on US President Donald Trump to pardon him, citing similar language that has been successful in previous pardon applications.

In a Thursday X post, Rodriguez said he would report to prison on Friday, where he will serve a five-year sentence for operating an illegal money transmitter. The Samourai co-founder claimed there were no “victims” to his crime, and blamed his incarceration on “lawfare perpetrated by a weaponized Biden DOJ.”

In a message tagging Trump, Rodriguez expressed hope that the US president would issue a federal pardon for him and William “Bill” Lonergan Hill, another Samourai executive who pleaded guilty and was sentenced to four years. Rodriguez blamed “activist judges” for his legal troubles, claiming he was targeted by a “political anti-innovation agenda.”

“I maintain hope that [Trump] is a fair man, a man of the people, who will see this prosecution for what it was: an anti innovation, anti american, attack on the rights and liberties of free people,” said Rodriguez. “I believe his team […] and others truly want to end the weaponization of the DOJ that the previous administration wielded so effectively […] I believe he will continue to wield that power for good and pardon me and Bill.”

Bitcoin Wallet, Law, Politics, Court, Crimes, Donald Trump — *Source:* *Keonne Rodriguez*

Rodriguez’s public plea followed Trump’s statement that he would “take a look” at a pardon for the Samourai co-founder, claiming that he had no knowledge of the case. It’s unclear whether Rodriguez filed an official application for a pardon or is relying on public statements to get the president’s attention.

Other crypto execs successfully lobbied for a Trump pardon

One of Trump’s first acts as president in January was to issue a pardon for Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht, who had been serving a life sentence for his role in creating and operating the darknet marketplace.

Former Binance CEO Changpeng “CZ” Zhao, who pleaded guilty to one felony in 2023 related to the exchange’s Anti-Money Laundering program, served four months in prison but also received a pardon from the president. Trump later said he “[knew] nothing about” Zhao when asked about the pardon in a November interview.

Rodriguez’s language addressing Trump mirrored comments from the White House on previous pardons. For example, Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said it was a “weaponization of justice from the previous administration” when the president commuted the sentence of David Gentile, who was convicted of defrauding “thousands of individual investors in a $1.6 billion” scheme in 2024.