OBR slashes UK growth forecast for 2025 but upgrades it for rest of parliament, chancellor says
The Office for Budget Responsibility has halved the UK growth forecast for 2025 from 2% to 1%, Chancellor Rachel Reeves has said.
However, the fiscal watchdog said that while growth has been downgraded for this year, it had been upgraded for every year after for the rest of this parliament – which is due to end in 2029.
The chancellor said she is “not satisfied with the numbers” for this year as she delivered her long-awaited spring statement in the House of Commons this afternoon.
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But, she explained, the OBR has forecast growth to hit 1.9% in 2026, 1.8% in 2027, 1.7% in 2028, and 1.8% in 2029.
She told MPs: “There are no shortcuts to economic growth. It will take long-term decisions. It will take hard yards. It will take time for the reforms we are introducing to be felt in the every day economy.
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Rachel Reeves has confirmed that the OBR has downgraded the UK’s economic growth forecast for this year from 2% to 1%.
“It is right that the Office for Budget Responsibility consider the evidence and look carefully at measures before recognising a growth impact in their forecast.”
The chancellor pointed to changes to the National Planning Policy Framework, saying mandatory housing targets and bringing “grey belt” land into scope for development will “permanently increase the level of real GDP by 0.2% by 2029-30”.
This will bring an “additional £6.8bn in our economy and by 0.4% of GDP within the next 10 years”, she said.
Ms Reeves also highlighted reforms to the pension system and a national wealth fund, adding it was part of a “serious plan” for economic growth.
Also announced in the spring statement today:
- The budget will move from a deficit of £36.1bn in 2025/26 and £13.4bn in 2026/27, to a surplus of £6bn in 2027/28, £7.1bn in 2028/29 and £9.9bn in 2029/30;
- The Office for Budget Responsibility estimates Labour’s cuts to the welfare budget will save £4.8bn, with changes going further than initially thought;
- Reeves says the health element of universal credit will be cut by half and frozen for new claimants;
- There are no more tax rises today, but the chancellor claims she’ll raise an extra billion pounds by cracking down more on tax evasion;
- Day-to-day spending will be protected, other than the aid budget, with spending increasing above inflation every year;
- The defence budget will get a £2.2bn boost for next year, paving the way for spending eventually hitting 2.5% of GDP;
- House building will hit a 40-year-high thanks to Labour’s planning reforms.
The chancellor confirmed that a voluntary redundancy scheme is set to launch for civil servants as part of her mission to “make government leaner”. She said this will deliver £3.5bn in “day-to-day savings by 2029-30”.
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Sky’s Economics and Data Editor Ed Conway goes through the latest economic data following the chancellor’s spring statement.
Shortly afterwards, Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch accused Labour of financial “chaos”.
She said the spring statement was “all smoke and mirrors”, adding: “I remember the last budget when Rachel Reeves said she was smashing glass ceilings, now it feels like the roof is falling over all our heads.”
A handful of Labour MPs were unimpressed with the moves around welfare, with Debbie Abrahams – the MP for Oldham East and Saddleworth – claiming “all the evidence points to cuts in welfare leading to severe poverty and worsened health conditions”.
An impact assessment into Labour’s welfare reforms, which include narrowing the eligibility criteria for personal independence payments (PIP), found there could be an additional 250,000 people in “relative poverty” by 2030 due to the changes.
Richard Burgon, the Labour MP for Leeds East, said “taking away the personal independence payments” from disabled people is an “especially cruel choice”.
Voting is under way in local elections across England, as well as in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election.
Due to Ofcom rules, Sky News is limited on what it can report until polls close at 10pm.
The votes mark the first electoral test for the party leaders since last year’s general election.
In total, 23 of England’s 317 local authorities are holding elections, alongside the Isles of Scilly.
The make up of around 1,270 parish councils are also due to be decided.
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And six metro mayors are up for election.
The West of England, Cambridgeshire and Peterborough, Doncaster, and North Tyneside mayoralties already have a mayor in place – while Greater Lincolnshire and Hull and East Yorkshire are choosing a mayor for the first time.
Meanwhile, a by-election is being held in Runcorn and Helsby after previous Labour MP Mike Amesbury agreed to stand down following his conviction for punching a man in the street.
While this result is likely to come in overnight, most local election results won’t be known until Friday.
All voters in these elections must be over 18, and be registered.
Join Sky News presenter Jonathan Samuels and deputy political editor Sam Coates from midnight as the results start coming in. Lead politics presenter Sophy Ridge, political editor Beth Rigby, and data and economics editor Ed Conway will be taking over on Friday to report and explain what has happened.
North Carolina’s House of Representatives has passed a bill allowing the state’s treasurer to invest public funds in approved cryptocurrencies, which will now head to the Senate.
The House passed the Digital Assets Investment Act, or House Bill 92, on its third reading on April 30 by a vote of 71 to 44.
Republican House Speaker Destin Hall introduced the bill in February, which would allow the treasurer to allocate 5% of the state’s investments into designated digital assets.
The investments can only be made after obtaining an independent third-party assessment confirming that the crypto holdings are maintained with a secure custody solution and risk oversight and regulatory compliance standards are met.
New amendments allow the treasurer to examine the feasibility of allowing members of retirement and deferred compensation plans to elect to invest in digital assets held as exchange-traded products (ETPs).
The House also passed a related bill, the State Investment Modernization Act, or HB 506, with little discussion on April 30, in a 110 to 3 vote.
The bill aims to create the North Carolina Investment Authority (NCIA) to take over investment management from the treasurer.
If passed into law, authority to invest in digital assets would transfer from the treasurer to NICA, and it would require approval from its board of directors based on third-party assessments to make crypto investments.
Local news outlet NC Newsline reported that Treasurer Brad Briner supports both bills.
Arizona leads the crypto bill race
North Carolina is second to Arizona in the state-level race to approve legislation allowing local governments to invest in cryptocurrencies.
Related: New Hampshire Bitcoin reserve bill heads to full Senate vote
On April 28, Arizona’s House approved two bills, SB 1025 and SB 1373, proposing different methods for the state to establish a crypto reserve.
Arizona is the only state whose House and Senate have passed crypto-related bills, which are both awaiting Governor Katie Hobbs’ decision.
Magazine: ZK-proofs unlock trillions in Bitcoin for DeFi — BitcoinOS and Starknet
Nearly 30 crypto advocate groups led by the lobby group the Crypto Council for Innovation (CCI) have asked the Securities and Exchange Commission for clear regulatory guidance on crypto staking and staking services.
The CCI’s Proof of Stake Alliance (POSA) group argued in an April 30 letter to the agency’s Crypto Task Force lead, SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce, that staking is fundamentally a technical process, not an investment activity.
“Staking isn’t niche — it’s the backbone of the decentralized internet,” the letter said.
The letter responded to the SEC’s call for public input on whether staking and liquid staking, where crypto users lock up their tokens to earn more, should be regulated under federal securities laws.
The coalition called for the SEC to support responsible inclusion of staking features in exchange-traded products (ETPs), and “avoid overly prescriptive rules that could freeze market structures and stifle innovation in the staking space.”
The group argued that staking fails to meet the securities-defining Howey test definition of an “investment contract” as stakers retain ownership of their assets.
They added that blockchain protocols, not a staking provider’s efforts, determine rewards, and providers don’t deliver profits through managerial decisions like a company does.
The letter requested that the SEC Issue principles-based guidance similar to recent SEC staff statements on proof-of-work mining.
“In the past 4 months, we’ve seen more movement and constructive dialogue with the SEC than in the past 4 years,” the group said. “Now, the industry is stepping up with concrete principles to include in guidance — a reflection of this new collaborative approach.”
Related: Ethereum ETF staking will have little impact without multimonth rally: Analyst
The group argued that the existing securities disclosure regime is ill-suited for staking services, which are fundamentally technical rather than financial in nature.
Big names in support of staking clarity
The Proof of Stake Alliance includes several high-profile crypto organizations and companies, including the venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz (a16z), blockchain software firm Consensys, and the crypto exchange Kraken, which restored staking services in the US earlier this year.
The SEC has yet to approve a crypto staking exchange-traded fund (ETF) and delayed the decision on allowing staking for Grayscale’s spot Ether ETF on April 14.
In April, Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart predicted that an Ether ETF that includes staking could come as soon as May.
Magazine: ZK-proofs unlock trillions in Bitcoin for DeFi — BitcoinOS and Starknet
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