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The Office for Budget Responsibility has halved the UK growth forecast for 2025 from 2% to 1%, Chancellor Rachel Reeves has said.

However, the fiscal watchdog said that while growth has been downgraded for this year, it had been upgraded for every year after for the rest of this parliament – which is due to end in 2029.

The chancellor said she is “not satisfied with the numbers” for this year as she delivered her long-awaited spring statement in the House of Commons this afternoon.

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But, she explained, the OBR has forecast growth to hit 1.9% in 2026, 1.8% in 2027, 1.7% in 2028, and 1.8% in 2029.

She told MPs: “There are no shortcuts to economic growth. It will take long-term decisions. It will take hard yards. It will take time for the reforms we are introducing to be felt in the every day economy.

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Rachel Reeves has confirmed that the OBR has downgraded the UK’s economic growth forecast for this year from 2% to 1%.

“It is right that the Office for Budget Responsibility consider the evidence and look carefully at measures before recognising a growth impact in their forecast.”

The chancellor pointed to changes to the National Planning Policy Framework, saying mandatory housing targets and bringing “grey belt” land into scope for development will “permanently increase the level of real GDP by 0.2% by 2029-30”.

This will bring an “additional £6.8bn in our economy and by 0.4% of GDP within the next 10 years”, she said.

Ms Reeves also highlighted reforms to the pension system and a national wealth fund, adding it was part of a “serious plan” for economic growth.

Also announced in the spring statement today:

  • The budget will move from a deficit of £36.1bn in 2025/26 and £13.4bn in 2026/27, to a surplus of £6bn in 2027/28, £7.1bn in 2028/29 and £9.9bn in 2029/30;
  • The Office for Budget Responsibility estimates Labour’s cuts to the welfare budget will save £4.8bn, with changes going further than initially thought;
  • Reeves says the health element of universal credit will be cut by half and frozen for new claimants;
  • There are no more tax rises today, but the chancellor claims she’ll raise an extra billion pounds by cracking down more on tax evasion;
  • Day-to-day spending will be protected, other than the aid budget, with spending increasing above inflation every year;
  • The defence budget will get a £2.2bn boost for next year, paving the way for spending eventually hitting 2.5% of GDP;
  • House building will hit a 40-year-high thanks to Labour’s planning reforms.

The chancellor confirmed that a voluntary redundancy scheme is set to launch for civil servants as part of her mission to “make government leaner”. She said this will deliver £3.5bn in “day-to-day savings by 2029-30”.

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Sky’s Economics and Data Editor Ed Conway goes through the latest economic data following the chancellor’s spring statement.

Shortly afterwards, Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch accused Labour of financial “chaos”.

She said the spring statement was “all smoke and mirrors”, adding: “I remember the last budget when Rachel Reeves said she was smashing glass ceilings, now it feels like the roof is falling over all our heads.”

A handful of Labour MPs were unimpressed with the moves around welfare, with Debbie Abrahams – the MP for Oldham East and Saddleworth – claiming “all the evidence points to cuts in welfare leading to severe poverty and worsened health conditions”.

An impact assessment into Labour’s welfare reforms, which include narrowing the eligibility criteria for personal independence payments (PIP), found there could be an additional 250,000 people in “relative poverty” by 2030 due to the changes.

Richard Burgon, the Labour MP for Leeds East, said “taking away the personal independence payments” from disabled people is an “especially cruel choice”.

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Rachel Reeves to head to Washington amid hopes of US trade deal

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Rachel Reeves to head to Washington amid hopes of US trade deal

Rachel Reeves will pledge to “stand up for Britain’s national interest” as she heads to Washington DC amid hopes of a UK/US trade deal.

The chancellor will fly to the US capital for her spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the first of which began on Sunday.

During her three-day visit, Ms Reeves is set to hold meetings with G7, G20 and IMF counterparts about the changing global economy and is expected to make the case for open trade.

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Her visit comes after Donald Trump imposed blanket 10% tariffs on all imports into the US, including from the UK, and as talks about reaching a trade deal intensified.

The chancellor will also hold her first in-person meeting with her US counterpart, treasury secretary Scott Bessent, about striking a new trade agreement, which the UK hopes will take the sting out of Mr Trump’s tariffs.

In addition to the 10% levy on all goods imported to America from the UK, Mr Trump enacted a 25% levy on car imports.

Ms Reeves will also be hoping to encourage fellow European finance ministers to increase their defence spending and discuss the best ways to support Ukraine in its war against Russia.

Read more:
Mission: Impossible? Chancellor heads to the IMF

Starmer and the King pay tribute to Pope Francis

Speaking ahead of her visit, Ms Reeves said: “The world has changed, and we are in a new era of global trade. I am in no doubt that the imposition of tariffs will have a profound impact on the global economy and the economy at home.

“This changing world is unsettling for families who are worried about the cost of living and businesses concerned about what tariffs will mean for them. But our task as a government is not to be knocked off course or to take rash action which risks undermining people’s security.

“Instead, we must rise to meet the moment and I will always act to defend British interests as part of our plan for change.

“We need a world economy that provides stability and fairness for businesses wanting to invest and trade, more trade and global partnerships between nations with shared interests, and security for working people who want to get on with their lives.”

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Mission: Impossible? Chancellor heads to the IMF with a very big challenge – and she’s not alone

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Mission: Impossible? Chancellor heads to the IMF with a very big challenge - and she's not alone

There will be much to chew over at the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) spring meetings this week.

Central bankers and finance ministers will descend on Washington for its latest bi-annual gathering, a place where politicians and academics converge, all of them trying to make sense of what’s going on in the global economy.

Everything and nothing has changed since they last met in October – one man continues to dominate the agenda.

Six months ago, delegates were wondering if Donald Trump could win the election and what that might mean for tax and tariffs: How far would he push it? Would his policy match his rhetoric?

Donald Trump. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Donald Trump. Pic: Reuters

This time round, expect iterations of the same questions: Will the US president risk plunging the world’s largest economy into recession?

Yes, he put on a bombastic display on his so-called “Liberation Day”, but will he now row back? Have the markets effectively checked him?

Behind the scenes, finance ministers from around the world will be practising their powers of persuasion, each jostling for meetings with their US counterparts to negotiate a reduction in Trump’s tariffs.

That includes Chancellor Rachel Reeves, who is still holding out hope for a trade deal with the US – although she is not alone in that.

Read more:
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Could Trump make a deal with UK?

Are we heading for a recession?

The IMF’s economists have already made up their minds about Trump’s potential for damage.

Last week, they warned about the growing risks to financial stability after a period of turbulence in the financial markets, induced by Trump’s decision to ratchet up US protectionism to its highest level in a century.

By the middle of this week the organisation will publish its World Economic Outlook, in which it will downgrade global growth but stop short of predicting a full-blown recession.

Others are less optimistic.

Kristalina Georgieva, the IMF’s managing director, said last week: “Our new growth projections will include notable markdowns, but not recession. We will also see markups to the inflation forecasts for some countries.”

She acknowledged the world was undergoing a “reboot of the global trading system,” comparing trade tensions to “a pot that was bubbling for a long time and is now boiling over”.

She went on: “To a large extent, what we see is the result of an erosion of trust – trust in the international system, and trust between countries.”

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva holds a press briefing on the Global Policy Agenda to open the IMF and World Bank's 2024 annual Spring Meetings in Washington, U.S., April 18, 2024. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque
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IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva. Pic: Reuters

Don’t poke the bear

It was a carefully calibrated response. Georgieva did not lay the blame at the US’s door and stopped short of calling on the Trump administration to stop or water down its aggressive tariffs policy.

That might have been a choice. To the frustration of politicians past and present, the IMF does not usually shy away from making its opinions known.

Last year it warned Jeremy Hunt against cutting taxes, and back in 2022 it openly criticised the Liz Truss government’s plans, warning tax cuts would fuel inflation and inequality.

Taking such a candid approach with Trump invites risks. His administration is already weighing up whether to withdraw from global institutions, including the IMF and the World Bank.

The US is the largest shareholder in both, and its departure could be devastating for two organisations that have been pillars of the world economic order since the end of the Second World War.

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Here in the UK, Andrew Bailey has already raised concerns about the prospect of global fragmentation.

It is “very important that we don’t have a fragmentation of the world economy,” the Bank of England’s governor said.

“A big part of that is that we have support and engagement in the multilateral institutions, institutions like the IMF, the World Bank, that support the operation of the world economy. That’s really important.”

The Trump administration might take a different view when its review of intergovernmental organisations is complete.

That is the main tension running through this year’s spring meetings.

How much the IMF will say and how much we will have to read between the lines, remains to be seen.

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DHL suspends some shipments to US amid Trump tariff regime

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DHL suspends some shipments to US amid Trump tariff regime

DHL Express is suspending some shipments to the US as Donald Trump’s new tariff regime takes effect.

From 21 April, shipments worth more than $800 (£603) to US consumers from “any origin” will be temporarily suspended.

New rules that came into effect at the start of April made such shipments subject to increased customs checks.

“This change has caused a surge in formal customs clearances, which we are handling around the clock,” said the parcel delivery service.

Shipments going from business to business worth more than $800 aren’t affected by the suspension, but DHL warned they may also face delays.

Shipments under $800 to either businesses or consumers are not impacted, but one British cycle manufacturer suggested its US customers may need to split orders over $800 into “smaller shipments” to avoid the red tape.

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More on Tariffs

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Trump: Tariffs are making US ‘rich’

Trump targeting ‘deceptive’ practices

From May, shipments from China and Hong Kong that are worth less than $800 “will be subject to all applicable duties”, according to the White House.

“President Trump is targeting deceptive shipping practices by Chinese-based shippers, many of whom hide illicit substances, including synthetic opioids, in low-value packages,” it said in a statement.

Until now, deliveries worth less than $800 didn’t incur any duties, which allowed low-cost companies Chinese like Shein and Temu to make inroads in the US.

Both have warned their prices will now rise because of the rule changes, starting on 25 April.

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