Spring statement 2025 key takeaways
Rachel Reeves has delivered her much anticipated spring statement today.
The chancellor’s statement is not a formal budget – as Labour pledged to only deliver one per year – but rather an update on the economy and any progress since her fiscal statement last October.
Ms Reeves told MPs “the world has changed” since her first budget just under five months ago, and that was to blame for the string of cuts and downgrades she outlined in the Commons.
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But critics have said today’s update is a direct consequence of her decisions since taking office in July.
Here are the key takeaways from the spring statement:
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has halved the UK growth forecast for 2025 from 2% to 1%, Ms Reeves said, adding that she was “not satisfied with these numbers”.
She explained that the government’s budget will move from a deficit of £36.1bn in 2025-26 and £13.4bn in 2026-27, to a surplus of £6bn in 2027-28, £7.1bn in 2028-29 and £9.9bn in 2029-30.
While the short-term growth forecasts appear gloomy, the chancellor said the OBR predicts the economy will be “larger” by the end of the forecast compared with the time of her first budget as a result of her decisions.
The OBR expects output to grow 1% in 2025, by 1.9% next year, 1.8% in 2027, 1.7% in 2028 and by 1.8% in 2029.
On living standards, real household disposable income per person is expected to grow by an average of around 0.5 percentage points a year from 2025-26 to 2029-30, led by stronger wage growth and inflation starting to fall later in the forecast period.
Ms Reeves said disposable income will “grow this year at almost twice the rate expected in the autumn”, adding: “Households will be on average over £500 a year better off under this government.”
The chancellor announced further welfare cuts after being told the reforms announced last week will save less than planned – £3.4bn instead of £5bn.
Among the latest changes to welfare spending, Ms Reeves said the universal credit health element would be cut by 50% and frozen for new claimants rather than rising in line with inflation.
However, the universal credit standard allowance will increase from £92 per week in 2025-26 to £106 per week by 2029-30. The changes will mean a further 150,000 people will not receive carer’s allowance or the carer element of universal credit, according to the government’s own impact assessment.
The OBR has estimated the new welfare savings package will save £4.8bn.
Cuts to welfare will mean 250,000 more people – including 50,000 children – will be pushed into poverty by 2030, the government’s assessment predicts.
Separately, 800,000 people will not receive the daily living component personal independence payment (PIP) – due to tightening eligibility rules.
The chancellor pledged to “boost Britain’s defence industry and to make the UK a defence industrial superpower”.
She confirmed the government’s pledge to spend 2.5% of GDP by 2027.
The Ministry of Defence will get an additional £2.2bn next year, the chancellor said, which will be spent on new high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth, and refurbishing military family homes, among other things.
The commitment is fully funded, with cash coming from Treasury reserves and also from the decision to slash foreign aid funding.
Ms Reeves said the statement does not contain any further tax increases, but highlighted work that needs to be done to tackle tax evasion.
She announced steps to crack down on tax evasion, saying that the government will increase the number of tax fraudsters charged each year by 20%.
She says that reducing tax evasion will raise an extra £1bn for the economy.
On departmental budgets – which dictate how much different parts of government can spend until 2030 – Ms Reeves said she aims to make the state “leaner and more agile”.
The chancellor also confirmed that a voluntary redundancy scheme is set to launch for civil servants, saying this will deliver £3.5bn in “day-to-day savings by 2029-30”.
Government spending will now grow by an average of 1.2% a year above inflation, compared with 1.3% in the autumn.
Planning reforms will see house building reach a more than 40-year high by 2030, the chancellor said.
She said the OBR has forecast that the government’s reforms to cut planning red tape will boost house building by 170,000 over the next five years, to 305,000.
This would put the government on track to add around 1.3 million to Britain’s stock of homes in the UK, a rise of 16%, by the end of Parliament.
However, it will fall short of its initial target of 1.5 million houses, the OBR warned, adding that planning reforms will only increase the overall housing stock by 0.5% by the end of 2030.
How have the markets reacted?
The reaction of financial markets to a fiscal event is important, particularly as a poorly received speech can add to government borrowing costs on the bond markets.
The good news for the chancellor here is that yields – the premium demanded by investors to hold UK government debt – dipped slightly in the wake of her remarks.
The yield for UK 30-year bonds, known as gilts, eased by almost 0.1 percentage points to 5.283%.
Similar, but smaller, declines were seen for their 10 and two year counterparts.
The only other market reaction to speak of was a dip in the value of the pound which lost three tenths of a cent against the dollar and the euro.
Institutional adoption of Bitcoin in the European Union remains sluggish, even as the United States moves forward with landmark cryptocurrency regulations that seek to establish BTC as a national reserve asset.
More than three weeks after President Donald Trump’s March 7 executive order outlined plans to use cryptocurrency seized in criminal cases to create a federal Bitcoin (BTC) reserve, European companies have largely remained silent on the issue.
The stagnation may stem from Europe’s complex regulatory regime, according to Elisenda Fabrega, general counsel at Brickken, a European real-world asset (RWA) tokenization platform.
“European corporate adoption remains limited,” Fabrega told Cointelegraph, adding:
“This hesitation reflects a deeper structural divide, rooted in regulation, institutional signaling and market maturity. Europe has yet to take a definitive stance on Bitcoin as a reserve asset.”
Bitcoin’s economic model favors early adopters, which may pressure more investment firms to consider gaining exposure to BTC. The asset has outperformed most major global assets since Trump’s election despite a recent correction.
Asset performance since Trump’s election victory. Source: Thomas Fahrer
Despite Trump’s executive order, only a small number of European companies have publicly disclosed Bitcoin holdings or crypto services. These include French banking giant BNP Paribas, Swiss firm 21Shares AG, VanEck Europe, Malta-based Jacobi Asset Management and Austrian fintech firm Bitpanda.
A recent Bitpanda survey suggests that European financial institutions may be underestimating crypto investor demand by as much as 30%.
Related: Friday’s US inflation report may catalyze a Bitcoin April rally
Europe’s “fragmented” regulatory landscape lacks clarity
The EU’s slower adoption appears tied to its patchwork of regulations and more conservative investment mandates, analysts at Bitfinex told Cointelegraph. “Europe’s institutional landscape is more fragmented, with regulatory hurdles and conservative investment mandates limiting Bitcoin allocations.”
“Additionally, European pension funds and large asset managers have been slower to adopt Bitcoin exposure due to unclear guidelines and risk aversion,” they added.
Related: Bitcoin ‘more likely’ to hit $110K before $76.5K — Arthur Hayes
Beyond the fragmented regulations, European retail investor appetite and retail participation are generally lower than in the US, according to Iliya Kalchev, dispatch analyst at digital asset investment platform Nexo.
Europe is “generally more conservative in adopting new financial instruments,” the analyst told Cointelegraph, adding:
“This stands in stark contrast to the deep, liquid, and relatively unified US capital market, where the spot Bitcoin ETF rollout was buoyed by strong retail demand and a clear regulatory green light.”
iShares Bitcoin ETP listings. Source: BlackRock
BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, launched a Bitcoin exchange-traded product (ETP) in Europe on March 25, a development that may boost institutional confidence among European investors.
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The New York State Attorney General’s (NAYG) recent legal action against Galaxy Digital over its promotional ties to the now-collapsed cryptocurrency Terra (LUNA) was unfair and an abuse of the legal system, says SkyBridge Capital and founder Anthony Scaramucci.
“It’s LAWFARE, pure and simple due to an obscure but dangerously powerful New York law known as the Martin Act,” Scaramucci said in a March 28 X post.
Martin Law can “open the door for abuse”
“The law has no need to prove intent, creating a low standard of proof that can open the door for abuse like this. It shouldn’t exist,” he said.
New York’s Martin Act is one of the US’s strictest anti-fraud and securities laws, allowing prosecutors the power to pursue financial fraud cases without needing to prove intent. The NAYG alleged that Galaxy Digital violated the Martin Act over its alleged promotion of Terra, with Galaxy Digital agreeing to a $200 million settlement.
According to NAYG documents filed on March 24, Galaxy Digital acquired 18.5 million LUNA tokens at a 30% discount in October 2020, then promoted them before selling them without abiding by disclosure rules.
Scaramucci reiterated that Galaxy CEO Michael Novogratz was under the impression everything he was saying about Luna was true, as he had been deceived by Terraform Labs and its former CEO, Do Kwon.
Source: Amanda Fischer
Meanwhile, MoonPay president of enterprise, Keith Grossman, said he had never heard of the Martin Act and had to look it up using AI chatbot ChatGPT.
“It is so broad and essentially is the essence of lawfare,” Grossman said. “Sorry you got caught in the crosshairs of it, Mike,” he added.
Related: Sonic unveils high-yield algorithmic stablecoin, reigniting Terra-Luna ‘PTSD’
The filing alleged that Galaxy helped a “little-known” token, referring to LUNA, increase its market price from $0.31 in October 2020 to $119.18 in April 2022 while “profiting in the hundreds of millions of dollars.”
Asset manager and investor Anthony Pompliano said he isn’t familiar with the details of the lawsuit but vouched for Novogratz, calling him a “good man” who has devoted a lot of time and money to helping others.
The Terra collapse is one of the crypto industry’s most infamous failures. In March 2024, SEC attorney Devon Staren said in the US District Court for the Southern District of New York that Terra was a “house of cards” that collapsed for investors in 2022.
Magazine: Arbitrum co-founder skeptical of move to based and native rollups: Steven Goldfeder
Billionaire investor Elon Musk has sold his social media platform X to his AI startup xAI, sparking controversy as it coincides with a US judge rejecting his bid to dismiss a lawsuit tied to the social media platform.
The transfer of ownership of X to xAI on March 28 means that the class-action lawsuit against Musk — accusing him of defrauding former Twitter shareholders by delaying the disclosure of his initial investment in the social media platform — has become “a whole lot spicer,” Cinneamhain Ventures partner Adam Cochran said in a March 28 X post.
Acquisition may open up xAI to more ‘exposure’
On the same day that Musk said “xAI has acquired X in an all-stock transaction,” a US judge reportedly rejected Musk’s attempt to dismiss the lawsuit. Cochran said it has “opened up his AI entity to exposure here too, and it’s a much bigger pie.”
Source: Grok
Musk said the deal values xAI at $80 billion and X at $33 billion, factoring in $12 billion in debt from the $45 billion valuation. He originally bought X, formerly Twitter, for around $44 billion in April 2022.
“xAI and X’s futures are intertwined. Today, we officially take the step to combine the data, models, compute, distribution and talent,” Musk said.
Source: Bryan Rosenblatt
“This combination will unlock immense potential by blending xAI’s advanced AI capability and expertise with X’s massive reach,” he said, adding:
“This will allow us to build a platform that doesn’t just reflect the world but actively accelerates human progress.”
However, Cochran claimed that “Musk used his pumped up xAI stock to pay multiple times over value for X, but still take an $11B loss on the transaction.” He said that Musk is “screwing over xAI investors, and X investors” and was executed to sell user data to xAI.
Related: Elon Musk’s ‘government efficiency’ team turns its sights to SEC — Report
xAI is best known for its AI chatbot “Grok” which is built into the X platform. When Musk released it in November 2023, he claimed it could outperform OpenAI’s first iteration of ChatGPT in several academic tests.
Source: Raoul Pal
Musk explained at the time that the motivation behind building Grok is to create AI tools equipped to assist humanity by empowering research and innovation.
While Cochran said that Grok being valued at $80 billion is an “insanely dumb valuation,” crypto developer “Keef” disagrees. Keef said, “This is shady all around, but given the day, Grok is genuinely probably the top model for various tasks.”
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