Spring statement 2025 key takeaways
Rachel Reeves has delivered her much anticipated spring statement today.
The chancellor’s statement is not a formal budget – as Labour pledged to only deliver one per year – but rather an update on the economy and any progress since her fiscal statement last October.
Ms Reeves told MPs “the world has changed” since her first budget just under five months ago, and that was to blame for the string of cuts and downgrades she outlined in the Commons.
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But critics have said today’s update is a direct consequence of her decisions since taking office in July.
Here are the key takeaways from the spring statement:
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has halved the UK growth forecast for 2025 from 2% to 1%, Ms Reeves said, adding that she was “not satisfied with these numbers”.
She explained that the government’s budget will move from a deficit of £36.1bn in 2025-26 and £13.4bn in 2026-27, to a surplus of £6bn in 2027-28, £7.1bn in 2028-29 and £9.9bn in 2029-30.
While the short-term growth forecasts appear gloomy, the chancellor said the OBR predicts the economy will be “larger” by the end of the forecast compared with the time of her first budget as a result of her decisions.
The OBR expects output to grow 1% in 2025, by 1.9% next year, 1.8% in 2027, 1.7% in 2028 and by 1.8% in 2029.
On living standards, real household disposable income per person is expected to grow by an average of around 0.5 percentage points a year from 2025-26 to 2029-30, led by stronger wage growth and inflation starting to fall later in the forecast period.
Ms Reeves said disposable income will “grow this year at almost twice the rate expected in the autumn”, adding: “Households will be on average over £500 a year better off under this government.”
The chancellor announced further welfare cuts after being told the reforms announced last week will save less than planned – £3.4bn instead of £5bn.
Among the latest changes to welfare spending, Ms Reeves said the universal credit health element would be cut by 50% and frozen for new claimants rather than rising in line with inflation.
However, the universal credit standard allowance will increase from £92 per week in 2025-26 to £106 per week by 2029-30. The changes will mean a further 150,000 people will not receive carer’s allowance or the carer element of universal credit, according to the government’s own impact assessment.
The OBR has estimated the new welfare savings package will save £4.8bn.
Cuts to welfare will mean 250,000 more people – including 50,000 children – will be pushed into poverty by 2030, the government’s assessment predicts.
Separately, 800,000 people will not receive the daily living component personal independence payment (PIP) – due to tightening eligibility rules.
The chancellor pledged to “boost Britain’s defence industry and to make the UK a defence industrial superpower”.
She confirmed the government’s pledge to spend 2.5% of GDP by 2027.
The Ministry of Defence will get an additional £2.2bn next year, the chancellor said, which will be spent on new high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth, and refurbishing military family homes, among other things.
The commitment is fully funded, with cash coming from Treasury reserves and also from the decision to slash foreign aid funding.
Ms Reeves said the statement does not contain any further tax increases, but highlighted work that needs to be done to tackle tax evasion.
She announced steps to crack down on tax evasion, saying that the government will increase the number of tax fraudsters charged each year by 20%.
She says that reducing tax evasion will raise an extra £1bn for the economy.
On departmental budgets – which dictate how much different parts of government can spend until 2030 – Ms Reeves said she aims to make the state “leaner and more agile”.
The chancellor also confirmed that a voluntary redundancy scheme is set to launch for civil servants, saying this will deliver £3.5bn in “day-to-day savings by 2029-30”.
Government spending will now grow by an average of 1.2% a year above inflation, compared with 1.3% in the autumn.
Planning reforms will see house building reach a more than 40-year high by 2030, the chancellor said.
She said the OBR has forecast that the government’s reforms to cut planning red tape will boost house building by 170,000 over the next five years, to 305,000.
This would put the government on track to add around 1.3 million to Britain’s stock of homes in the UK, a rise of 16%, by the end of Parliament.
However, it will fall short of its initial target of 1.5 million houses, the OBR warned, adding that planning reforms will only increase the overall housing stock by 0.5% by the end of 2030.
How have the markets reacted?
The reaction of financial markets to a fiscal event is important, particularly as a poorly received speech can add to government borrowing costs on the bond markets.
The good news for the chancellor here is that yields – the premium demanded by investors to hold UK government debt – dipped slightly in the wake of her remarks.
The yield for UK 30-year bonds, known as gilts, eased by almost 0.1 percentage points to 5.283%.
Similar, but smaller, declines were seen for their 10 and two year counterparts.
The only other market reaction to speak of was a dip in the value of the pound which lost three tenths of a cent against the dollar and the euro.
The US Securities and Exchange Commission and crypto exchange Gemini have asked to pause the regulator’s suit over the exchange’s Gemini Earn program, saying they want to discuss a potential resolution.
In an April 1 letter to New York federal court judge Edgardo Ramos, lawyers representing the SEC and Genesis requested a 60-day hold on the case and that all deadlines be pulled “to allow the parties to explore a potential resolution.”
“In this case, the parties submit that it is in each of their interests to stay this matter while they consider a potential resolution and agree that no party or non-party would be prejudiced by a stay,” the letter states.
The lawyers added that a stay was in the court’s interest as “a resolution would conserve judicial resources” and proposed that a joint status report be submitted within 60 days after the entry of the stay.
The SEC sued Gemini and crypto lending firm Genesis Global Capital in January 2023, alleging they offered unregistered securities through the Gemini Earn program.
In March 2024, Genesis agreed to pay $21 million to settle charges related to the lending program, but the enforcement case against Gemini remains outstanding.
Letter from SEC and Genesis Global requesting extension of stay. Source: CourtListener
The letter did not specify what a possible resolution would entail, but the SEC has dropped several lawsuits it launched against crypto companies under the Biden administration, including against Coinbase, Ripple and Kraken.
Related: Will new US SEC rules bring crypto companies onshore?
In February, Gemini said the SEC closed a separate investigation into the firm as the regulator winds back its crypto enforcement under President Donald Trump.
“The SEC cost us tens of millions of dollars in legal bills alone and hundreds of millions in lost productivity, creativity, and innovation. Of course, Gemini is not alone,” Gemini co-founder Cameron Winklevoss said at the time.
OpenSea, Crypto.com and Uniswap, among others, have also recently reported that the SEC had closed similar probes into their companies that were investigating alleged breaches of securities laws.
Magazine: Bitcoin ATH sooner than expected? XRP may drop 40%, and more: Hodler’s Digest, March 23 – 29
Two Republicans who received a combined $1.5 million from the crypto-backed political action committee (PAC) Fairshake will enter the US House after winning special elections in Florida.
Republican Jimmy Patronis won the vacant seat in Florida’s 1st Congressional District to replace Matt Gaetz, taking 57% of the vote to defeat Democrat Gay Valimont, according to AP News data.
Randy Fine also took Florida’s 6th Congressional District with 56.7% of the vote to beat his Democratic rival, public school teacher Josh Weil, and fill a seat left vacant by Mike Waltz, who took a job as White House national security adviser.
Florida’s 1st and 6th Congressional Districts — located in Florida’s western panhandle and along the state’s northeast coast — have been controlled by Republicans for roughly 30 years, but their lead has narrowed in recent years.
Fairshake, a PAC backed by crypto industry giants including Coinbase, Ripple and Andreessen Horowitz, gave Fine around $1.16 million in advertising spending and funneled $347,000 to Patronis to support his campaign.
Both Republicans have expressed support for the crypto industry, with Fine stating in a Jan. 14 X post that “Floridians want crypto innovation!”
Source: Randy Fine
Fairshake and its affiliates poured around $170 million into the 2024 US presidential and congressional elections to back candidates who committed to supporting the crypto industry.
The wins by Patronis and Fine increased Republican representation in the House to 220 seats, with the Democrats holding 213 seats.
There are two vacant seats to be filled after Texas and Arizona Democrats Sylvester Turner and Raúl Grijalva died on March 5 and March 13, respectively.
Florida can expect to see a crypto-friendly regulatory environment
The victories for Patronis and Fine likely mean that crypto legislation will continue to see support in the US capital.
The Republican Party would have maintained its House majority even if it lost both seats in Florida, but it would have made it more difficult for some of the recently introduced Republican-backed crypto bills to pass through the House and Senate.
Related: Florida bill proposes strict rules against online gambling
At the Digital Assets Summit on March 18, Democratic Congressman Ro Khanna said he believes Congress “should be able to get” both a stablecoin and crypto market structure bill done this year.
Bills that could eventually make their way to the House include the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act, which passed the Senate Banking Committee in an 18-6 vote on March 13.
Senator Cynthia Lummis also reintroduced a Bitcoin reserve bill about a week after the Trump administration announced the establishment of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve on March 6, with the legislation referred to the Senate Banking Committee on March 11.
Magazine: Trump’s crypto ventures raise conflict of interest, insider trading questions
Several British trade associations have asked Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s office to appoint a special envoy dedicated to crypto and for a dedicated action plan for digital assets and blockchain technology.
In a March 31 letter, the coalition of six UK digital economy trade bodies urged Starmer’s special adviser on business and investment, Varun Chandra, for a “greater strategic focus and alignment to deliver investment, growth and jobs” for the crypto industry.
The group, which consisted of the UK Cryptoasset Business Council, Global Digital Finance, The Payments Association, Digital Currencies Governance Group, the Crypto Council for Innovation and techUK, noted the US policy shift on crypto under President Donald Trump and his appointment of a crypto czar.
Britain’s commitment to an economic trade deal focused on technological cooperation with the US “presents a significant opportunity to mirror the United States’ ambition in fostering leadership in blockchain, digital assets, and other emerging financial technologies,” the letter stated.
The group recommended that the UK appoint a blockchain special envoy, similar to the US, to coordinate policy, foster innovation, and position the country competitively in global markets.
The trade bodies also called for the development of a dedicated government action plan for crypto and blockchain technology, including a concierge service to attract high-potential firms.
They added that the government should acknowledge and leverage the commonalities between blockchain, quantum computing and artificial intelligence technologies, including potential applications for government services.
Another recommendation was to create a high-level industry-government-regulator engagement forum to ensure informed decision-making and cross-sector collaboration.
The UK crypto and tech associations lobbying the government for a policy shift. Source: LinkedIn
“With deep pools of talent, access to capital, world-class academic institutions, and sophisticated regulators, the UK provides an environment where digital assets and blockchain innovation can thrive,” they stated.
Related: UK should tax crypto buyers to boost stock investing, economy, says banker
The coalition argues that crypto and blockchain technology could boost the UK economy by 57 billion British pounds ($73.6 billion) over the next decade, with the sector potentially increasing global gross domestic product by 1.39 trillion pounds ($1.8 trillion) by 2030.
Tom Griffiths, the co-founder and managing partner of crypto compliance advisory firm BitCompli, said in response to the letter on LinkedIn that the Financial Conduct Authority “has a lot of talent and a good sight of future plans, but the UK is definitely losing pace with Dubai, Singapore, and other EU jurisdictions.”
“Now is the time for the FCA to act, or the UK will lose out on this huge opportunity, which is digital assets and all the benefits this sector can bring, not only now but over the next 20 years,” he added.
Magazine: Bitcoin ATH sooner than expected? XRP may drop 40%, and more: Hodler’s Digest, March 23 – 29
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