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Rachel Reeves has delivered her much anticipated spring statement today.

The chancellor’s statement is not a formal budget – as Labour pledged to only deliver one per year – but rather an update on the economy since her fiscal statement last October.

Ms Reeves told MPs “the world has changed” since her first budget just under five months ago, and that was to blame for the string of cuts and downgrades she outlined in the Commons.

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But critics have said today’s update is a direct consequence of her decisions since taking office in July.

Here are the key takeaways from the spring statement:

Economy

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has halved the UK growth forecast for 2025 from 2% to 1%, Ms Reeves said, adding that she was “not satisfied with these numbers”.

She explained that the government’s budget will move from a deficit of £36.1bn in 2025-26 and £13.4bn in 2026-27, to a surplus of £6bn in 2027-28, £7.1bn in 2028-29 and £9.9bn in 2029-30.

While the short-term growth forecasts appear gloomy, the chancellor said the OBR predicts the economy will be “larger” by the end of the forecast compared with the time of her first budget as a result of her decisions.

The OBR expects output to grow 1% in 2025, by 1.9% next year, 1.8% in 2027, 1.7% in 2028 and by 1.8% in 2029.

Economic growth chart

On living standards, real household disposable income per person is expected to grow by an average of around 0.5 percentage points a year from 2025-26 to 2029-30, led by stronger wage growth and inflation starting to fall later in the forecast period.

Ms Reeves said disposable income will “grow this year at almost twice the rate expected in the autumn”, adding: “Households will be on average over £500 a year better off under this government.”

Welfare chapterhead

The chancellor announced further welfare cuts after being told the reforms announced last week will save less than planned – £3.4bn instead of £5bn.

Among the latest changes to welfare spending, Ms Reeves said the universal credit health element would be cut by 50% and frozen for new claimants rather than rising in line with inflation.

However, the universal credit standard allowance will increase from £92 per week in 2025-26 to £106 per week by 2029-30. The changes will mean a further 150,000 people will not receive carer’s allowance or the carer element of universal credit, according to the government’s own impact assessment.

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Ed Conway examines chancellor’s numbers

The OBR has estimated the new welfare savings package will save £4.8bn.

Cuts to welfare will mean 250,000 more people – including 50,000 children – will be pushed into poverty by 2030, the government’s assessment predicts.

Separately, 800,000 people will not receive the daily living component personal independence payment (Pip) – due to tightening eligibility rules.

Defence

The chancellor pledged to “boost Britain’s defence industry and to make the UK a defence industrial superpower”.

She confirmed the government’s pledge to spend 2.5% of GDP by 2027.

The Ministry of Defence will get an additional £2.2bn next year, the chancellor said, which will be spent on new high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth, and refurbishing military family homes, among other things.

The commitment is fully funded, with cash coming from Treasury reserves and also from the decision to slash foreign aid funding.

Taxes

Ms Reeves said the statement does not contain any further tax increases, but highlighted work that needs to be done to tackle tax evasion.

She announced steps to crack down on it, saying the government will increase the number of tax fraudsters charged each year by 20%.

She said reducing tax evasion will raise an extra £1bn for the economy.

Departmental cuts chapterhead

On departmental budgets – which dictate how much different parts of government can spend until 2030 – Ms Reeves said she aims to make the state “leaner and more agile”.

The chancellor also confirmed that a voluntary redundancy scheme is set to launch for civil servants, saying this will deliver £3.5bn in “day-to-day savings by 2029-30”.

Government spending will now grow by an average of 1.2% a year above inflation, compared with 1.3% in the autumn.

Housing

Planning reforms will see house building reach a more than 40-year high by 2030, the chancellor said.

She said the OBR has forecast that the government’s reforms will boost house building by 170,000 over the next five years, to 305,000.

This would put the government on track to add around 1.3 million to Britain’s stock of homes in the UK, a rise of 16%, by the end of parliament.

However, reforms will only increase the overall housing stock by 0.5% by the end of 2030, falling short of the government’s initial pledge to build 1.5 million houses.

How have the markets reacted?

The reaction of financial markets to a fiscal event is important, particularly as a poorly received speech can add to government borrowing costs on the bond markets.

The good news for the chancellor here is that yields – the premium demanded by investors to hold UK government debt – dipped slightly in the wake of her remarks.

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The yield for UK 30-year bonds, known as gilts, eased by almost 0.1 percentage points to 5.283%.

Similar, but smaller, declines were seen for their 10 and two-year counterparts.

The only other market reaction to speak of was a dip in the value of the pound, which lost three tenths of a cent against the dollar and the euro.

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Scale of Chinese espionage in UK revealed as evidence in collapsed spy trial is published

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Scale of Chinese espionage in UK revealed as evidence in collapsed spy trial is published

The extent of Chinese spying carried out on UK parliamentarians has been unveiled after evidence in the collapsed China spy trial was published.

Three witness statements from the government were released late on Wednesday night amid confusion surrounding why the prosecutions fell apart.

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Former parliamentary researcher Christopher Cash, 30, from Whitechapel, east London, and teacher Christopher Berry, 33, from Witney, Oxfordshire, were charged with passing politically sensitive information to a Chinese intelligence agent between December 2021 and February 2023. They have both denied the allegations.

In a statement after the government published the statements, Mr Cash reiterated he was “completely innocent”.

The collapse of the trial, meaning he can’t prove it, has put him in an “impossible position”, he said.

“At no point did I intentionally assist Chinese intelligence,” he added.

What does the government’s evidence say?

In the documents, it was revealed information about internal Tory politics – when the party was in government – was being fed to a Chinese intelligence handler known as “Alex”, according to counterterrorism command SO15.

They were written by Matthew Collins, the deputy national security adviser, who has been in post the whole time.

This includes Mr Cash working as a researcher and “directly contributing to the policy advice being provided to Rishi Sunak”.

The evidence adds: “It is axiomatic that this is prejudicial to the safety or interests of the UK for the Chinese state to have indirect access to one of the individuals providing policy advice to the now prime minister on China, with the potential to influence that advice.”

Mr Cash described the witness statements as “completely devoid of the context that would have been given at trial”.

‘Enemy’ status?

The prosecution of Mr Cash and Mr Berry collapsed in the past few weeks – with the director of public prosecutions saying it had not received enough evidence from the government to proceed.

This related to whether China could be considered an “enemy” under the Official Secrets Act 1911.

In the most recent document from Mr Collins, dated 4 August this year, he quotes the Labour manifesto in saying the government position, saying: “It is important for me to emphasise, however, that the UK government is committed to pursuing a positive relationship with China to strengthen understanding, cooperation and stability.

“The government’s position is that we will co-operate where we can; compete where we need to; and challenge where we must, including on issues of national security.”

While the statements repeatedly highlight the “threat” of China to the UK, they also speak of the importance of the trading relationship, and do not use the word “enemy”.

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What does China spy row involve?

The publication of the documents comes after Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer confirmed he would do so in parliament at Prime Minister’s Questions (PMQs).

The prime minister had previously said the government would not publish the evidence as it would not have been allowed by the CPS – before the CPS then denied this was the case.

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Speaking at PMQs, Sir Keir said: “Last night, the Crown Prosecution Service clarified that, in their view, the decision whether to publish the witness statements of the DNSA [deputy national security adviser] is for the government.

“I have therefore carefully considered this question this morning, and after legal advice, I have decided to publish the witness statement.”

Opponents of the government have accused it of deliberately collapsing the trial – something Downing Street has denied.

Stephen Parkinson, the head of the CPS, said in a statement the prosecution was dropped after attempts to get more evidence from the government “over many months” proved unfruitful.

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Go big with tax hikes or risk ‘groundhog day’, chancellor told

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Go big with tax hikes or risk 'groundhog day', chancellor told

Rachel Reeves faces the prospect of another “groundhog day” unless next month’s budget goes further than plugging an estimated £22bn black hole in the public finances, according to a respected thinktank.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said there was a “strong case” for the chancellor to substantially increase the £10bn headroom she has previously given herself against her own debt rules, or risk further repeats of needing to restore the buffer in the years ahead.

It said Ms Reeves could bring the cost of servicing government debt down through ending constant chatter over the limited breathing space she has previously given herself, in uncertain times for the global economy.

The chancellor herself used an interview with Sky News this week to admit tax rises were being considered, and appeared to concede she was trapped in a “doom loom” of annual increases.

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Tax hikes possible, Reeves tells Sky News

What is the chancellor facing?

Speculation over the likely contents of the budget has been rife for months and intensified after U-turns by the government on planned welfare reforms and on winter fuel payments.

The Office for Budget Responsibility’s determination on the size of the black hole facing Ms Reeves could come in well above or below the IFS estimate of £22bn, which includes the restoration of the £10bn headroom but not the cost of any possible policy announcements such as the scrapping of the two-child benefit cap.

Economists broadly agree tax rises are inevitable, as borrowing more would be prohibitive given the bond market’s concerns about the UK’s fiscal position.

Long-term borrowing costs have recently stood at levels not seen since the last century.

What are her tax options?

While there has been talk of new levies on bank profits and the wealthy, to name but a few rumours, the IFS analysis suggests the best way to raise the bulk of sufficient funds is by hiking income tax, rather than making the tax system even more complicated.

Earlier this week, it suggested reforms, such as to property taxes, could raise tens of billions of pounds.

But any move on income tax would mean breaking Labour’s manifesto pledge not to target the three main sources of revenue from income, employee national insurance contributions and VAT.

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Is Labour plotting a ‘wealth tax’?

She is particularly unlikely to raise VAT, as it would risk fanning the flames of inflation, already expected by the International Monetary Fund to run at the highest rate across the G7 this year and next.

Business argues it should be spared.

The chancellor’s first budget, which raised taxes by £40bn, has been blamed by the sector for raising costs in the economy since April via higher minimum pay and employer national insurance contributions.

They say the measures have dragged on employment, investment, and growth.

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The big issues facing the UK economy

‘A situation of her own making’

Analysis by Barclays, revealed within the IFS’s Green Budget, suggested inflation was on course to return to target by the middle of next year but that the UK’s jobless rate could top 5% from its current 4.8% level.

Ms Reeves, who has blamed the challenges she faces on past austerity, Brexit and a continuing drag from the mini-budget of the Liz Truss government in 2022, was urged by the IFS to not harm growth through budget measures.

IFS director Helen Miller said: “Last autumn, the chancellor confidently pronounced she wouldn’t be coming back with more tax rises; she almost certainly will.

“For Rachel Reeves, the budget will feel like groundhog day. This is, to a large extent, a situation of her own making.

“When choosing to operate her fiscal rules with such teeny tiny headroom, Ms Reeves would have known that run-of-the-mill forecast changes could easily blow her off course.”

Ms Miller said there was a “strong case for the chancellor to build more headroom against her fiscal rules”, adding: “Persistent uncertainty is damaging to the economic outlook.”

‘No return to austerity’

A Treasury spokesperson responded: “We won’t comment on speculation. The chancellor’s non-negotiable fiscal rules provide the stability needed to help to keep interest rates low while also prioritising investment to support long-term growth.

“We were the fastest-growing economy in the G7 in the first half of the year, but for too many people our economy feels stuck. They are working day in, day out without getting ahead.

“That needs to change, and that is why the chancellor will continue to relentlessly cut red tape, reform outdated planning rules, and invest in public infrastructure to boost growth – not return to austerity or decline.”

The budget is scheduled for 26 November.

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PPE Medpro will be pursued ‘with everything we’ve got’ Wes Streeting says

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PPE Medpro will be pursued 'with everything we've got' Wes Streeting says

The Government has vowed to pursue a company linked to Baroness Michelle Mone for millions of pounds paid for defective PPE at the height of the COVID pandemic after a High Court deadline passed without repayment.

Earlier this month, the High Court ruled that PPE Medpro, a company founded by Baroness Mone’s husband Doug Barrowman and promoted in government by the Tory peer, was in breach of contract and gave it two weeks to repay the £122m plus interest of £23m.

In a statement, the Health Secretary Wes Streeting said: “At a time of national crisis, PPE Medpro sold the previous government substandard kit and pocketed taxpayers’ hard-earned cash.

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“PPE Medpro has failed to meet the deadline to pay – they still owe us over £145m, with interest now accruing daily.”

It is understood that is being charged at a rate of 8%.

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“We will pursue PPE Medpro with everything we’ve got to get these funds back where they belong – in our NHS,” Mr Streeting concluded.

Earlier a spokesman for Mr Barrowman and the consortium behind the company said the government had not responded to an offer from PPE Medpro to discuss a settlement.

“Very disappointingly, the government has made no effort to respond or seek to enter into discussions,” he said.

During the trial PPE Medpro offered to pay £23m to settle the case but was rejected by the Department of Health and Social Care.

While Mr Barrowman has described himself as the “ultimate beneficial owner” of PPE Medpro, and says £29m of profit from the deal was paid into a trust benefitting his family including Baroness Mone and her children, he was never a director and the couple are not personally liable for the money.

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£122m bill that may never be paid

PPE Medpro filed for insolvency the day before Mrs Justice Cockerill’s finding of breach of contract was published, and the company’s most recent accounts show assets of just £666,000.

Court-appointed administrators will now be responsible for recovering as much money as possible on behalf of creditors, principally the DHSC.

With PPE Medpro in administration and potentially limited avenues to recover funds, there is a risk that the government may recover nothing while incurring further legal expenses.

In June 2020, PPE Medpro won contracts worth a total of £203m to provide 210m masks and 25m surgical gowns after Baroness Mone contacted ministers including Michael Gove on the company’s behalf.

While the £81m mask contract was fulfilled the gowns were rejected for failing sterility standards, and in 2022 the DHSC sued. Earlier this month Mrs Justice Cockerill ruled that PPE Medpro was in breach of contract and liable to repay the full amount.

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Baroness Mone ‘should resign’

Mr Barrowman has previously named several other companies as part of the gown supply including two registered in the UK, and last week his spokesman said there was a “strong case” for the administrator to pursue them for the money.

One of the companies named has denied any connection to PPE Medpro and two others have not responded to requests for comment.

Insolvency experts say that administrators and creditors, in this case the government, may have some recourse to pursue individuals and entities beyond the liable company, but any process is likely to be lengthy and expensive.

Julie Palmer, a partner at Begbies Traynor, told Sky News: “The administrators will want to look at what’s happened to what look like significant profits made on these contracts.

“If I was looking at this I would want to establish the exact timeline, at what point were the profits taken out.

“They may also want to consider whether there is a claim for wrongful trading, because that effectively pierces the corporate veil of protection of a limited company, and can allow proceedings against company officers personally.

“The net of a director can also be expanded to shadow directors, people sitting in the background quite clearly with a degree of control of the management of the company, in which case some claims may rest against them.”

A spokesman for Forvis Mazars, one of the joint administrators of PPE Medpro, did not comment other than to confirm the firm’s appointment.

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