Rachel Reeves will keep her remarks short when she delivers the spring statement on Wednesday.
But the enormity of what she is saying will be lost on no one as the chancellor sets out the grim reality of the country’s finances.
Her economic update to the House of Commons will reveal a deteriorating economic outlook and rising borrowing costs, which has forced her to find spending cuts, which she’s left others to carry the can for (more on that in a bit).
The independent Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) is expected to forecast that growth for 2025 has halved from 2% to 1%.
That, combined with rising debt repayment costs on government borrowing, has left the chancellor with a black hole in the public finances against the forecasts published at the budget in October.
Back then, Reeves had a £9.9bn cushion against her “iron-clad” fiscal rule that day-to-day spending must be funded through tax receipts not debt by 2029-30.
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But that surplus has been wiped out in the ensuing six months – now she finds herself about £4bn in the red, according to those familiar with the forecasts.
That’s really uncomfortable for a chancellor who just months ago executed the biggest tax and spend budget in a generation with the promise that she would get the economy growing again.
At the first progress check, she looks to be failing and has been forced into finding spending cuts to make up the shortfall after ruling out her other two options – further tax rises or more borrowing via a loosening of her self-imposed fiscal rules.
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What to expect in the spring statement
‘World has changed’
When Reeves gets up on Wednesday, she will put it differently, saying the “world has changed” and all that means is the government must move “further and faster” to deliver the reforms that will drive growth.
But her opponents will be quick to lay economic woes at her door, arguing that the unexpected £25bn tax hike on employers’ national insurance contributions last October have choked off growth.
But it’s not just opposition from the Conservative benches that the chancellor is facing – it is opposition from within as she sets about cutting government spending to the tune of £15bn to fill that black hole.
Politically, her allies know how awkward it would have been for the chancellor to announce £5bn in welfare cuts to avoid breaking her own fiscal rules, with one acknowledging that those cuts had to be kept separate from the spring statement.
There’s also expected to be more than £5bn of extra cuts from public spending in the forecast period, which could see departments that don’t have protected budgets – education, justice, home – face real-term spending cuts by the end of the decade.
Image: Pic: PA
Not an emergency budget
We won’t see the detail of that until the Spending Review in June.
This is not an emergency budget because the chancellor isn’t embarking on a round of tax raising to fix the public finances.
But these are, however they are framed, emergency spending cuts designed to plug her black hole and that is politically difficult for a government that has promised no return to austerity if some parts of the public sector face deep cuts to stick with fiscal rules.
If that’s the macro picture, what about the “everyday economics” of peoples’ lives?
I’d point out two things here. On Wednesday, we will get to see where those £5bn of welfare cuts will fall as the government publishes the impact assessment that it held back last week.
Up to a million people could be affected by cuts, and the reality of who will be hit will pile on the pressure for Labour MPs already uncomfortable with cuts to health and disability benefits.
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Benefits cuts explained
The second point is whether the government remains on course to deliver its key pledge to “put more money in the pockets of working people” during this parliament after the Joseph Rowntree Foundation think-tank produced analysis over the weekend saying living standards for all UK families are set to fall by 2030.
But that doesn’t mean that the forecasts published on Wednesday calculating real household disposable income per head won’t make for grim reading as the economic outlook deteriorates.
Nervousness in Labour
Ask around the party, and there is obvious nervousness about how this might land, with a degree of anxiety about the economic outlook and what that has in store for departmental budgets.
But there is recognition too from many MPs that the government has political space afforded by that whopping majority, to make these decisions on spending cuts without too much fallout – for now.
Because while Wednesday will be bad, worse could be yet to come.
Staring down the barrel
The chancellor is staring down the barrel of a possible global trade war that will only serve to create more economic uncertainty, even if the UK is spared from the worst tariffs by President Donald Trump.
The national insurance hike is also set to kick in next month, with employers across the piece sounding the warnings around investment, jobs and growth.
Six months ago, Reeves said she wouldn’t be coming back for more after she announced £40bn in tax rises in that massive first budget.
Six months on she is coming back for more, this time in the form of spending cuts. And in six months’ time, she may well have to come back for more in the form of tax rises or deeper cuts.
The spring statement was meant to be a run-of-the-mill economic update, but it has morphed into much more.
The chancellor now has to make the hard sell from a very hard place, that could soon become even tougher still.
The Ministry of Defence have shared a picture of the British soldier who was killed in a “tragic accident” in Ukraine, as Volodymyr Zelenskyy prepares to give Donald Trump a revised plan for peace with Russia.
The Ukrainian president said his delegation is set to hand Kyiv’s proposal to Washington in the “near future”, ahead of talks between European leaders over the plan next week.
Meanwhile, tributes have come in for Lance Corporal George Hooley, a 28-year-old paratrooper who died on Tuesday while observing Ukrainian forces testing a new defensive capability away from the frontline.
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Is Europe’s transatlantic relationship with America on life support?
The MoD said he joined the army in November 2015 and was regarded as “an exceptional soldier and an impressive junior leader with extensive operational experience”.
In a statement released through the ministry, Lance Corporal Hooley’s commanding officer said that the paratrooper had had an “incredibly bright” future in the Parachute Regiment.
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“I have no doubt that he would have continued to perform at the very front of his peer-group over the coming years,” they added.
“All members of The Parachute Regiment mourn his loss; however, our sorrow is nothing compared to that being felt by his family, our thoughts and prayers are with them at this incredibly difficult time.”
Image: Lance Corporal George Hooley with his dog Mabel. Pic: Ministry of Defence
‘If you met George Hooley, you remembered it’
The company commander added: “If you met George Hooley, you remembered it.” They said the paratrooper had a “rare gift” and was a “model of professionalism”.
Britain’s Defence Secretary John Healey said the Lance Corporal “served our country with distinction and professionalism” and was “an exceptional soldier who will be very deeply missed”.
“The tributes that have been paid to him are a testament to his exceptional attitude and ability,” Mr Healey said. “George’s tragic death reminds us of the courage and commitment with which our outstanding armed forces serve every day to protect our nation.”
Zelenskyy: Ukraine to share peace plan in ‘near future’
Mr Zelenskyy said that Ukraine was finalising a 20-point peace document to share with the United States.
“We are working very productively to guarantee future security and prevent a recurrence of Russian aggression,” he said.
But Mr Trump had accused Mr Zelenskyy of not reading the original American-backed version of the peace proposal, and in an interview with Politico on Tuesday, claimed the Ukrainian president was “using war” to avoid holding an election.
Later on Wednesday, Mr Zelenskyy said Kyiv’s peace delegation held a “productive conversation” with the US, and “discussed key issues for recovery, various mechanisms, and visions of reconstruction”.
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and French President Emmanuel Macron also spoke with the US president by phone on Wednesday.
In Ukraine shelling at a hospital in the occupied southern Kherson region killed three medical workers and injured two others, according to a governor installed by Russia.
And on Wednesday morning, Ukraine said its energy infrastructure had been targeted by Russian drone strikes in the southern Odesa region.
A man has been found guilty of murdering his ex-partner’s sister and her three children in a house fire.
Prosecutors said Sharaz Ali, 40, was “motivated by jealousy and fuelled by drink and drugs” when he set fire to Bryonie Gawith’s home early on 21 August last year.
Jurors heard that Ali went to the home in Westbury Road, Bradford, aiming to “take revenge” on his ex, Antonia Gawith, who was staying there after ending their “abusive” seven-year relationship earlier that month.
Antonia Gawith managed to escape, but Bryonie Gawith, 29, and her children Denisty Birtle, nine, Oscar Birtle, five, and 22-month-old Aubree Birtle died in the blaze.
Image: Bryonie Gawith and her children Denisty, Oscar and Aubree Birtle died in the fire
Ali told a jury he had no intention of harming others when the house went up in flames, saying: “I didn’t want to hurt anyone but myself.”
But after a trial at Doncaster Crown Court, he was found guilty of four counts of murder and attempting to murder Antonia Gawith.
Calum Sunderland, 26, who went with Ali to the house and kicked the door in for him, was found guilty of the manslaughter of Bryonie Gawith and her three children, but cleared of the more serious charges of murder.
He was also cleared of attempted murder, and an alternative count of attempting to cause grievous bodily harm, in relation to Antonia Gawith.
Image: Calum Sunderland. Pic: West Yorkshire Police
Mohammed Shabir, 45, who had also been due to go on trial, died of a heart attack in October after collapsing in prison.
After the verdicts, the judge, Mr Justice Hilliard, thanked jurors and said the case had been “distressing beyond measure – three children and their mother murdered”.
“I don’t think anyone who heard Antonia’s desperate cries for help will ever forget them,” he said.
“These are truly dreadful crimes.”
The judge also praised the “extraordinary bravery” of those who tried to save the children trapped in the house.
Ali and Sunderland, a convicted arsonist, were driven to the house by Shabir, stopping on the way to fill a seven-litre canister with petrol, the court heard.
Doorbell footage captured Ali telling Sunderland, who was carrying the petrol and a lighter, to “kick the door in”, which he did before running back to the car.
Antonia Gawith said she saw an “angry” Ali run into the house and begin pouring petrol on her while shouting before setting himself and the house on fire.
Image: Antonia Gawith outside Doncaster Crown Court. Pic: PA
‘I couldn’t save them’
In a video interview played to jurors, she sobbed as she told police how she “couldn’t save” her sister, nieces and nephew, as she tried frantically to get back in the house through the back door.
“I was just screaming, trying to get back in the house and I couldn’t get in. I couldn’t save them,” she said.
West Yorkshire Police’s Detective Chief Inspector Stacey Atkinson said: “Bryonie and her three children would still be alive today if it wasn’t for the horrific and truly callous actions of Ali and Sunderland that day.
“They left a mum and her three children completely helpless whilst her sister and their auntie watched on in horror.
“Our thoughts and sympathies are with the family, who despite their immense strength of character now face the rest of their lives without them.”
Senior Crown Prosecution Service prosecutor Amanda McInnes said Ali was a “selfish killer who had no regard for anyone but himself”.
“He was motivated by jealousy and his actions have now needlessly robbed a family of their loved ones,” she said.
“Both men played their role and caused the deaths of a young family who should still be with us today.”
On a dark December morning two years ago, Kiki Marriott left her flat and started walking.
Content warning: This article contains references to suicide.
It was 5am, and she was heading for the station.
“I was numb at that point,” she says.
“I was just so done with trying to survive and just existing… feeling extremely lonely and isolated and didn’t know where to turn.”
She was trapped in a cycle of addiction, gambling all hours and taking cocaine for the maximum buzz.
Image: ‘I didn’t know where to turn,’ says Kiki
“I sat at the train station thinking about my daughter, thinking about the mistakes that I’ve made in the past, thinking that I didn’t want to live this life any more.”
Kiki was waiting for the first train.
But that train was late. And she changed her mind.
Instead of taking her own life, she decided to seek help.
Yet what she would find on that journey of recovery would shock her.
“I just realised that there wasn’t anybody that looked like me, sounded like me, and it got me to thinking, well I can’t be the only black woman suffering with a gambling or cocaine addiction.”
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3:39
‘I can’t be the only black woman suffering addiction’
Racial disparities
Research has shown that people from ethnic minority backgrounds are less likely to gamble than white people, but are more likely to suffer harm from gambling.
Despite that, too often they do not seek help.
And YouGov statistics shared exclusively with Sky News shed a light on why.
The survey of 4,000 adults for GamCare, which runs the National Gambling Helpline, found that two-thirds of people from ethnic minority backgrounds who’d gambled in the past year had spent more money than they’d planned, double the amount of white respondents.
They were also more than twice as likely to hide their gambling and nearly three times as likely to feel guilt.
Kiki is not surprised.
“For me, coming from a black community, a black background, what goes on indoors stays behind closed doors,” she says.
“You keep your mouth shut, and you handle your business yourself.”
And when she considered what an addict looked like, it wasn’t someone like her.
“I just thought it’s an old white man’s thing – that they go into the bookies, and they have a drink and they bet.
“I thought, well, that’s not me.”
But Dharmi Kapadia, a senior sociology lecturer from Manchester University, who focuses on racial inequality, thinks there’s more than just cultural pressure at play.
“These explanations of stigma have become dominant,” she says.
“We’ve found that what’s more important is that people don’t want to go and get help from gambling services because of previous racist treatment that they’ve suffered at the hands of other statutory services, for example, when they went to the GP.”
Image: Dharmi Kapadia thinks there’s more than just cultural pressure at play
‘I needed to change’
The stigma felt very real for Kiki, so she hid what she was doing.
“I’ve had trauma in my life. I’ve been sexually abused as a child.
“As the years have gone on, a traumatic event happened in my family that really changed the dynamics of my life and that’s when I moved on from scratch cards to online slots.”
She became hooked – betting around the clock, spending her benefits on 10p and 20p spins on online slots and borrowing money from those around her.
Eventually her daughter moved out when she was 15.
“That’s when everything escalated. I didn’t have that responsibility of keeping up appearances.
“Before that, gas, electric, food shopping, all those things had to be in place.
“I just lived and breathed in my bedroom at that point and yeah, it was very lonely.”
When Kiki left the station that day, she called the National Gambling Helpline.
“For the first time in my life, I was completely honest about everything that I was doing – the lies, the manipulation when I was in active addiction, the secrecy.
“I was completely transparent because I wanted to change. I needed to change.”
‘Where’s all the women?’
Since then, she has undergone constant therapy, including a six-week stint in rehab.
And as she headed home in the taxi, her phone rang.
It was Lisa Walker, a woman who understood gambling addiction. She had won £127,000 playing poker at 29 before losing everything and ending up homeless with her young children.
Image: Lisa Walker (left) sought help from Gamblers Anonymous and was among very few women at her meetings
When she finally asked for help, she too felt she was different, walking into a Gamblers Anonymous meeting to find she was one of only two women in a room with 35 men.
“I was thinking, where’s all the women?” says Lisa.
“I can’t be the only woman in the world with a gambling addiction, so that got me thinking, what services are out there for women?”
It was the catalyst to set up support for female gamblers in April 2022.
Since then, Lisa has helped close to 250 women, but all but four have been white.
One of those four was Kiki.
‘There’s no getting away from it’
“It just baffles me… Why aren’t they reaching out for support? Is it the shame? Is it stigma?” says Lisa.
But another concern is that it’s simply too easy to hide the gambling.
“Getting on the train this morning, 90% of people are on their phones, and we don’t know whether they’re playing slots,” she says.
“I could probably sit here now and sign up for 50 online casinos and probably get over a thousand free spins.
“I just think there’s no getting away from it because it’s 24 hours a day.”
Image: Kiki says she now has an ‘amazing’ relationship with her daughter
Kiki’s flat in Woolwich, where once she couldn’t even go to the bathroom without gambling, has become the place where she runs her own online peer mentoring groups.
“Feeling understood and validated for your experiences, for how you was raised… the core beliefs that you’re taught from a young age, to have somebody that looks like you, talks like you, has the same cultural background… it’s extremely important to make you feel understood, to make you feel validated,” she says.
‘You can learn from it’
Kiki will need to attend support groups for life to keep her addictions at bay.
But she has a clear goal, just as Lisa did.
“My focus is to help other people, help empower other people to choose themselves, to show them that there is light after so much darkness… that you don’t have to be a victim of your circumstances, that you can choose to grow from it and learn from it and heal from it,” she says.
For Kiki, there was so much at stake.
“It was either I was going to die or I was going to become a woman and a mother that my daughter could come back to and respect again.”
And that has happened. Kiki’s daughter is 19 now.
Image: Kiki now helps others suffering from gambling addiction
“We’ve got an amazing relationship today. I’ve took full accountability for the mistakes that I’ve made.
“She’s extremely proud of where I am today.”
It’s more than Kiki could have dreamt of two years ago.
Now all she wants is to help others escape the endless cycle of addiction.
Anyone feeling emotionally distressed or suicidal can call Samaritans for help on 116 123 or email jo@samaritans.org in the UK. In the US, call the Samaritans branch in your area or 1 (800) 273-TALK
To speak to an adviser on the National Gambling Helpline, call 0808 8020 133