Spring statement: Rachel Reeves can make decisions on spending cuts without too much fallout for now – but worse could be yet to come

Published

8 months ago

March 26, 2025

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Rachel Reeves will keep her remarks short when she delivers the spring statement on Wednesday.

But the enormity of what she is saying will be lost on no one as the chancellor sets out the grim reality of the country’s finances.

Her economic update to the House of Commons will reveal a deteriorating economic outlook and rising borrowing costs, which has forced her to find spending cuts, which she’s left others to carry the can for (more on that in a bit).

Politics Live: Polling suggests almost everyone is pessimistic

The independent Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) is expected to forecast that growth for 2025 has halved from 2% to 1%.

That, combined with rising debt repayment costs on government borrowing, has left the chancellor with a black hole in the public finances against the forecasts published at the budget in October.

Back then, Reeves had a £9.9bn cushion against her “iron-clad” fiscal rule that day-to-day spending must be funded through tax receipts not debt by 2029-30.

But that surplus has been wiped out in the ensuing six months – now she finds herself about £4bn in the red, according to those familiar with the forecasts.

That’s really uncomfortable for a chancellor who just months ago executed the biggest tax and spend budget in a generation with the promise that she would get the economy growing again.

At the first progress check, she looks to be failing and has been forced into finding spending cuts to make up the shortfall after ruling out her other two options – further tax rises or more borrowing via a loosening of her self-imposed fiscal rules.

‘World has changed’

When Reeves gets up on Wednesday, she will put it differently, saying the “world has changed” and all that means is the government must move “further and faster” to deliver the reforms that will drive growth.

But her opponents will be quick to lay economic woes at her door, arguing that the unexpected £25bn tax hike on employers’ national insurance contributions last October have choked off growth.

But it’s not just opposition from the Conservative benches that the chancellor is facing – it is opposition from within as she sets about cutting government spending to the tune of £15bn to fill that black hole.

Politically, her allies know how awkward it would have been for the chancellor to announce £5bn in welfare cuts to avoid breaking her own fiscal rules, with one acknowledging that those cuts had to be kept separate from the spring statement.

There’s also expected to be more than £5bn of extra cuts from public spending in the forecast period, which could see departments that don’t have protected budgets – education, justice, home – face real-term spending cuts by the end of the decade.

Not an emergency budget

We won’t see the detail of that until the Spending Review in June.

This is not an emergency budget because the chancellor isn’t embarking on a round of tax raising to fix the public finances.

But these are, however they are framed, emergency spending cuts designed to plug her black hole and that is politically difficult for a government that has promised no return to austerity if some parts of the public sector face deep cuts to stick with fiscal rules.

If that’s the macro picture, what about the “everyday economics” of peoples’ lives?

I’d point out two things here. On Wednesday, we will get to see where those £5bn of welfare cuts will fall as the government publishes the impact assessment that it held back last week.

Up to a million people could be affected by cuts, and the reality of who will be hit will pile on the pressure for Labour MPs already uncomfortable with cuts to health and disability benefits.

The second point is whether the government remains on course to deliver its key pledge to “put more money in the pockets of working people” during this parliament after the Joseph Rowntree Foundation think-tank produced analysis over the weekend saying living standards for all UK families are set to fall by 2030.

The chancellor told my colleague Trevor Phillips on Sunday that she “rejects” the analysis that the average family could be £1,400 worse off by 2030.

But that doesn’t mean that the forecasts published on Wednesday calculating real household disposable income per head won’t make for grim reading as the economic outlook deteriorates.

Nervousness in Labour

Ask around the party, and there is obvious nervousness about how this might land, with a degree of anxiety about the economic outlook and what that has in store for departmental budgets.

But there is recognition too from many MPs that the government has political space afforded by that whopping majority, to make these decisions on spending cuts without too much fallout – for now.

Because while Wednesday will be bad, worse could be yet to come.

Staring down the barrel

The chancellor is staring down the barrel of a possible global trade war that will only serve to create more economic uncertainty, even if the UK is spared from the worst tariffs by President Donald Trump.

The national insurance hike is also set to kick in next month, with employers across the piece sounding the warnings around investment, jobs and growth.

Six months ago, Reeves said she wouldn’t be coming back for more after she announced £40bn in tax rises in that massive first budget.

Six months on she is coming back for more, this time in the form of spending cuts. And in six months’ time, she may well have to come back for more in the form of tax rises or deeper cuts.

The spring statement was meant to be a run-of-the-mill economic update, but it has morphed into much more.

The chancellor now has to make the hard sell from a very hard place, that could soon become even tougher still.

UK

Starmer urges anyone with information on Epstein case to come forward – after Andrew misses Congress deadline

Published

11 hours ago

November 23, 2025

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Starmer urges anyone with information on Epstein case to come forward - after Andrew misses Congress deadline

Sir Keir Starmer has urged anyone with information on the Jeffrey Epstein case to come forward after Andrew Mountbatten Windsor missed the deadline to appear in front of US Congress.

US legislators have criticised Andrew for what they describe as “silence” amid their probe into Epstein after he failed to respond to their request for an interview.

When asked about Andrew missing the deadline and whether the former prince should help the case in any way he can, Sir Keir said on his way to the G20 summit in South Africa: “I don’t comment on this particular case.”

He added that “a general principle I’ve held for a very long time is that anybody who has got relevant information in relation to these kind of cases should give that evidence to those that need it”.

Andrew is not legally obliged to talk to Congress and has always vigorously denied any wrongdoing.

It comes as Marjorie Taylor Greene, a loyal supporter-turned-critic of US President Donald Trump, said on Friday she is resigning from Congress in January.

Ms Greene’s resignation followed a public falling-out with Mr Trump in recent months, as the congresswoman criticised him for his stance on files related to Epstein, as well as on foreign policy and healthcare.

Members of the House Oversight Committee had requested a “transcribed interview” with Andrew in connection with his “long-standing friendship” with Epstein, the paedophile financier who took his own life in a New York prison in 2019 while awaiting trial on sex trafficking and conspiracy charges.

But after saying they had not heard back, Democrats Robert Garcia and Suhas Subramanyam accused Andrew of hiding.

Their statement read: “Andrew Mountbatten Windsor’s silence in the face of the Oversight Democrat’s demand for testimony speaks volumes.

“The documents we’ve reviewed, along with public records and Virginia Roberts Giuffre’s testimony, raise serious questions he must answer, yet he continues to hide.

“Our work will move forward with or without him, and we will hold anyone who was involved in these crimes accountable, no matter their wealth, status, or political party. We will get justice for the survivors.”

It follows Andrew being stripped of his prince and Duke of York titles earlier this month.

He had previously agreed to stop using his titles, but had expected to remain a prince and retain his dukedom, ahead of the publication of the memoirs of the late Ms Giuffre, who had accused him of sexually assaulting her when she was a teenager – an accusation he denies.

UK

Girl, 13, arrested on suspicion of murdering woman in Swindon

Published

11 hours ago

November 23, 2025

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Girl, 13, arrested on suspicion of murdering woman in Swindon

A 13-year-old girl has been arrested on suspicion of murdering a woman in Swindon.

Police said the teenager was detained following an incident in Baydon Close, Moredon, in the Wiltshire town on Friday evening.

Officers responded to reports of disorder inside a house. When they arrived, a woman in her 50s living at the address was found to be not breathing. She was declared dead at the scene.

There were no other reported injuries.

Detective Inspector Darren Ambrose, from Wiltshire Police’s major crime investigation team, said: “This is a serious incident in which a woman has sadly died.

“We have set up a cordon at the address while an investigation is carried out.

“I can confirm that we have arrested a teenage girl in connection with this incident and we are not looking for anyone else.”

Police have asked people not to speculate about the incident online as this could prejudice the case.

A police statement read: “Residents can expect to see an increased police presence in the area while we continue carrying out our enquiries into the woman’s death.

“The suspect remains in custody at this time.”

Police said anyone with concerns should speak with their local neighbourhood policing team, either by emailing or approaching officers in person.

UK

Rail fares to be frozen for first time in 30 years

Published

11 hours ago

November 23, 2025

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Rail fares to be frozen for first time in 30 years

Rail fares are to be frozen for the first time in 30 years, the government has announced.

Ministers promised that millions of rail travellers will save hundreds of pounds on regulated fares, including season tickets and peak and off-peak returns between major cities.

The fare freeze applies to England and services run by English train operators.

People commuting to work three days a week using flexi-season tickets will save £315 a year travelling from Milton Keynes to London, £173 travelling from Woking to London and £57 from Bradford to Leeds, the government said.

The changes are part of Labour’s plans to rebuild a publicly owned Great British Railways. Other planned changes include tap in-tap out and digital ticketing, as well as investing in superfast Wi-Fi.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves said the government was introducing a freeze on rail fares for the first time in 30 years, which “will ease the pressure on household finances and make travelling to work, school or to visit friends and family that bit easier”.

“We all want to see cheaper rail travel, so we’re freezing fares to help millions of passengers save money,” Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander said.

“Commuters on more expensive routes will save more than £300 per year, meaning they keep more of their hard-earned cash.”

Rail unions and passenger groups welcomed the move, praising how it will make travel more affordable for passengers and promote more sustainable travel alternatives.

Eddie Dempsey, general secretary of the Rail, Maritime and Transport union, said: “More affordable fares will encourage greater use of public transport, supporting jobs, giving a shot in the arm to local economies and helping to improve the environment.”

TUC general secretary Paul Nowak said the rail fare freeze “will be a huge relief to working people”.

“This is the right decision, at the right time, to help passengers be able to afford to make that journey they need to take, and to help grow our railway in this country, because the railway is Britain’s green alternative – taking cars and lorries off our congested roads and moving people and goods safely around our country in an environmentally-friendly way,” Mick Whelan, general secretary of the train drivers union Aslef, said.

The Tories welcomed the move but said the government was “late to the platform”.

Shadow transport secretary Richard Holden said: “In government, the Conservatives kept fares on the right track with below-inflation rises and consistently called for no further hikes to protect hard-working commuters.”