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Rachel Reeves will keep her remarks short when she delivers the spring statement on Wednesday.

But the enormity of what she is saying will be lost on no one as the chancellor sets out the grim reality of the country’s finances.

Her economic update to the House of Commons will reveal a deteriorating economic outlook and rising borrowing costs, which has forced her to find spending cuts, which she’s left others to carry the can for (more on that in a bit).

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The independent Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) is expected to forecast that growth for 2025 has halved from 2% to 1%.

That, combined with rising debt repayment costs on government borrowing, has left the chancellor with a black hole in the public finances against the forecasts published at the budget in October.

Back then, Reeves had a £9.9bn cushion against her “iron-clad” fiscal rule that day-to-day spending must be funded through tax receipts not debt by 2029-30.

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But that surplus has been wiped out in the ensuing six months – now she finds herself about £4bn in the red, according to those familiar with the forecasts.

That’s really uncomfortable for a chancellor who just months ago executed the biggest tax and spend budget in a generation with the promise that she would get the economy growing again.

At the first progress check, she looks to be failing and has been forced into finding spending cuts to make up the shortfall after ruling out her other two options – further tax rises or more borrowing via a loosening of her self-imposed fiscal rules.

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What to expect in the spring statement

‘World has changed’

When Reeves gets up on Wednesday, she will put it differently, saying the “world has changed” and all that means is the government must move “further and faster” to deliver the reforms that will drive growth.

But her opponents will be quick to lay economic woes at her door, arguing that the unexpected £25bn tax hike on employers’ national insurance contributions last October have choked off growth.

But it’s not just opposition from the Conservative benches that the chancellor is facing – it is opposition from within as she sets about cutting government spending to the tune of £15bn to fill that black hole.

Politically, her allies know how awkward it would have been for the chancellor to announce £5bn in welfare cuts to avoid breaking her own fiscal rules, with one acknowledging that those cuts had to be kept separate from the spring statement.

There’s also expected to be more than £5bn of extra cuts from public spending in the forecast period, which could see departments that don’t have protected budgets – education, justice, home – face real-term spending cuts by the end of the decade.

Pic: PA
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Pic: PA

Not an emergency budget

We won’t see the detail of that until the Spending Review in June.

This is not an emergency budget because the chancellor isn’t embarking on a round of tax raising to fix the public finances.

But these are, however they are framed, emergency spending cuts designed to plug her black hole and that is politically difficult for a government that has promised no return to austerity if some parts of the public sector face deep cuts to stick with fiscal rules.

If that’s the macro picture, what about the “everyday economics” of peoples’ lives?

I’d point out two things here. On Wednesday, we will get to see where those £5bn of welfare cuts will fall as the government publishes the impact assessment that it held back last week.

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Expect different focus from Reeves at spring statement

Up to a million people could be affected by cuts, and the reality of who will be hit will pile on the pressure for Labour MPs already uncomfortable with cuts to health and disability benefits.

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Benefits cuts explained

The second point is whether the government remains on course to deliver its key pledge to “put more money in the pockets of working people” during this parliament after the Joseph Rowntree Foundation think-tank produced analysis over the weekend saying living standards for all UK families are set to fall by 2030.

The chancellor told my colleague Trevor Phillips on Sunday that she “rejects” the analysis that the average family could be £1,400 worse off by 2030.

But that doesn’t mean that the forecasts published on Wednesday calculating real household disposable income per head won’t make for grim reading as the economic outlook deteriorates.

Nervousness in Labour

Ask around the party, and there is obvious nervousness about how this might land, with a degree of anxiety about the economic outlook and what that has in store for departmental budgets.

But there is recognition too from many MPs that the government has political space afforded by that whopping majority, to make these decisions on spending cuts without too much fallout – for now.

Because while Wednesday will be bad, worse could be yet to come.

Staring down the barrel

The chancellor is staring down the barrel of a possible global trade war that will only serve to create more economic uncertainty, even if the UK is spared from the worst tariffs by President Donald Trump.

The national insurance hike is also set to kick in next month, with employers across the piece sounding the warnings around investment, jobs and growth.

Six months ago, Reeves said she wouldn’t be coming back for more after she announced £40bn in tax rises in that massive first budget.

Six months on she is coming back for more, this time in the form of spending cuts. And in six months’ time, she may well have to come back for more in the form of tax rises or deeper cuts.

The spring statement was meant to be a run-of-the-mill economic update, but it has morphed into much more.

The chancellor now has to make the hard sell from a very hard place, that could soon become even tougher still.

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Woman dies in skydiving incident in County Durham

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Woman dies in skydiving incident in County Durham

A woman has died in a skydiving incident in County Durham.

Emergency crews were called to Wreford’s Farm in Shotton Colliery, near Peterlee, on Sunday morning.

The woman, aged in her 30s, was pronounced dead at the scene.

A Durham Constabulary spokesperson said the woman’s death is not being treated as suspicious and a file will be prepared for the coroner.

North East Ambulance Service said it was called to the incident at 10.17am on Sunday.

“We dispatched one ambulance crew and one specialist paramedic to the incident,” a spokesperson added.

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Wreford’s Farm is described on its website as a “small, family run farm” which produces pork and beef using “regenerative agriculture”.

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No criminal charges over death of ice hockey player Adam Johnson whose neck was cut by opponent’s skate

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No criminal charges over death of ice hockey player Adam Johnson whose neck was cut by opponent's skate

No criminal charges will be brought over the death of an ice hockey player who died during a match in Sheffield, prosecutors have announced.

Nottingham Panthers’ Adam Johnson died in October 2023 after his neck was cut by an opposition player’s skate during a match at Sheffield’s Utilita Arena.

The Sheffield Steelers player, Matthew Petgrave, was arrested on suspicion of manslaughter and later bailed – but the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) has now said it will not bring criminal charges against the Canadian.

Michael Quinn, deputy chief crown prosecutor, said: “This was a shocking and deeply upsetting incident. The CPS and South Yorkshire Police have worked closely together to determine whether any criminal charges should be brought against the other ice hockey player involved.

“Following a thorough police investigation and a comprehensive review of all the evidence by the CPS, we have concluded that there is not a realistic prospect of conviction for any criminal offence and so there will not be a prosecution.

“Our thoughts remain with the family and friends of Adam Johnson.”

Flowers and messages left in tribute to Nottingham Panthers' ice hockey player Adam Johnson outside the Motorpoint Arena in Nottingham, the home of the Panthers. Mr Johnson died after an accident during a Challenge Cup match with Sheffield Steelers on Saturday night. Picture date: Monday October 30, 2023.
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Tributes were left outside the Motorpoint Arena in Nottingham following the ice hockey player’s death. Pic PA

Before joining Nottingham Panthers, the Minnesota-born Johnson played in Pennsylvania for the Pittsburgh Penguins, and Sweden for the Malmo Redhawks.

He also played in California for Ontario Reign and in Germany for Augsburger Panther.

A post-mortem examination confirmed the 29-year-old died as a result of the fatal neck injury.

The crowd of 8,000 spectators watched in horror as desperate attempts were made to save his life as he lay on the ice, shielded by fellow players.

The game was abandoned and spectators were asked to leave in the aftermath.

Lit candles among the flowers and messages left in tribute to Nottingham Panthers' ice hockey player Adam Johnson outside the Motorpoint Arena in Nottingham, the home of the Panthers. Mr Johnson died after an accident during a Challenge Cup match with Sheffield Steelers on Saturday night. Picture date: Monday October 30, 2023.
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Pic PA

Kari Johnson, Johnson’s aunt, was watching the match via a livestream with his father and grandmother when he was fatally injured.

Speaking to Sky News at the time, Ms Johnson said: “It was a mess, it was a nightmare, it was like it wasn’t real. We were in shock, we couldn’t believe this was happening.”

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Kari Johnson said her nephew was ‘a kind soul’

Ms Johnson described her nephew as a “kind soul” and a “private kid” who “never would have wanted to be in the limelight like this”.

He simply wanted to be “good at hockey and have fun”, she said, adding he was “having the time of his life in the UK” and was planning to get engaged to his girlfriend.

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In January 2024, Sheffield’s senior coroner, Tanyka Rawden, suspended her investigation while the police inquiry took its course.

It later emerged that Ms Rawden had issued a Prevention of Future Deaths Report to Ice Hockey UK and the English Ice Hockey Association (EIHA) about the use of neck guards in the sport.

In the report, Ms Rawden said she was “sufficiently concerned that deaths may occur in the future if neck guards or protectors are not worn”, with the bodies given 56 days to say what action had been taken – or why action had not been taken.

Neck guards have been mandatory in the Elite League (EIHL), in which the Nottingham Panthers and Sheffield Steelers compete, since January 2024.

This followed the International Ice Hockey Federation’s decision in December to mandate the use of neck laceration protectors for its competitions.

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Government reviewing ‘right to family life’ court decisions as sex offenders to be denied refugee status

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Government reviewing 'right to family life' court decisions as sex offenders to be denied refugee status

Court decisions where people were granted asylum after arguing they had a “right to family life” will be reviewed as the government plans to ban migrants convicted of sex offences, the home secretary has said.

Foreign nationals who are added to the sex offenders register will forfeit their rights to protection under the Refugee Convention, the Home Office announced.

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As part of the 1951 UN treaty, countries are allowed to refuse asylum to terrorists, war criminals and individuals convicted of a “particularly serious crime” – which is currently defined in UK law as an offence carrying a sentence of 12 months or more.

The government now plans to extend that definition to include all individuals added to the Sex Offenders’ Register, regardless of the length of sentence, in an amendment to the Border Security, Asylum and Immigration Bill, which is currently going through parliament.

Home Secretary Yvette Cooper told Sky News the new definition would also “take into account” sexual offence convictions in another country.

However, she was less clear if those affected will still be able to appeal against their removal from the UK under the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR).

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More than 10,000 people have now been detected crossing the Channel. Pic: PA
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More than 10,000 people have now been detected crossing the Channel. Pic: PA

She said: “We continue to comply with international law, but the whole point is that our laws and our frameworks are about how we interpret international law… and how we make sure that the courts are then making their decisions based on the UK law that parliament has passed.”

She added the government is “reviewing” a “series of decisions” made in the courts where criminals have been allowed to stay in the UK under Article 8 of the Human Rights Act, which protects the right to respect “your private life, your family life, your home and your correspondence”.

“We are reviewing that because we do believe that the way in which it’s being interpreted in the courts is an issue and actually, there is greater clarification we can provide through our law to address that,” she said.

It is unclear how many asylum seekers will be affected by the change in law, as the government has been unable to provide any projections or past data on the number of asylum seekers added to the Sex Offenders’ Register.

Ms Cooper earlier said: “Sex offenders who pose a risk to the community should not be allowed to benefit from refugee protections in the UK. We are strengthening the law to ensure these appalling crimes are taken seriously.”

Safeguarding and Violence Against Women and Girls Minister Jess Philips said: “We are determined to achieve our mission of halving violence against women and girls in a decade.

“That’s exactly why we are taking action to ensure there are robust safeguards across the system, including by clamping down on foreign criminals who commit heinous crimes like sex offences.”

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Has Labour tackled migration?

The Home Office would like voters to see this as a substantial change. But that’s hard to demonstrate without providing any indication of the scale of the problem it seeks to solve.

Clearly, the government does not want to fan the flames of resentment towards asylum seekers by implying large numbers have been committing sex crimes.

But amid rising voter frustration about the government’s grip on the issue, and under pressure from Reform – this measure is about signalling it is prepared to take tough action.

Conservatives: ‘Too little, too late’

The Conservatives claim Labour are engaged in “pre-election posturing”.

Chris Philp, the shadow home secretary, said: “This is too little, too late from a Labour government that has scrapped our deterrent and overseen the worst year ever for small boat crossings – with a record 10,000 people crossing this year already.

“Foreign criminals pose a danger to British citizens and must be removed, but so often this is frustrated by spurious legal claims based on human rights claims, not asylum claims.”

The Home Office has also announced plans to introduce a 24-week target for appeal hearings (known as “first-tier tribunals”) to be held for rejected asylum seekers living in taxpayer-supported accommodation, or for foreign national offenders.

The current average wait is 50 weeks.

The idea is to cut the asylum backlog and save taxpayers money – Labour have committed to end the use of asylum hotels by the end of this parliament.

It’s unclear how exactly this will be achieved, although a number of additional court days have already been announced.

The government also plans to crack down on fake immigration lawyers who advise migrants on how to lodge fraudulent asylum claims, with the Immigration Advice Authority given new powers to issue fines of up to £15,000.

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