XRP ETF ‘obvious’ as Polymarket bettors up approval odds to 85%
Crypto community members are growing more optimistic about an XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) approval following the resolution of a multi-year legal battle between Ripple and the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
On March 19, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse announced the case had concluded. In an X post, the Ripple executive said the SEC will drop its appeal against Ripple, ending the $1.3 billion unregistered securities suit that started in December 2020.
Following the development, Nate Geraci, president of the advisory firm ETF Store, said on X that the approval of an XRP (XRP) ETF is next. Geraci said it was “obvious” that it’s only a “matter of time” before the SEC approves an XRP ETF.
The executive predicted that asset managers like BlackRock and Fidelity would be involved in offering the asset.
Polymarket punters give 86% odds to XRP ETF approval in 2025
Aside from Geraci, users on the crypto betting platform Polymarket also expect approval for an XRP ETF in 2025. On March 26, Polymarket gave an 86% chance that an XRP-based ETF product would be approved this year.
The bet will resolve if an XRP ETF receives approval from the SEC by Dec. 31. At the time of writing, the betting market had a volume of $55,000.
Polymarket shows an 86% chance that a Ripple ETF will be approved in 2025. Source: Polymarket
However, users only give a 42% chance that an XRP ETF will be approved before July 31.
Despite being a gambling site, Polymarket users’ predictions have historically been very accurate. A Dune Analytics dashboard studying the accuracy of Polymarket bets showed that the platform had been accurate by over 90% a month before betting markets were resolved.
Related: SEC plans 4 more crypto roundtables on trading, custody, tokenization, DeFi
XRP price only surged by 5% as the SEC battle ends
Despite being a huge milestone, the end of the multi-year legal battle between Ripple and the SEC failed to move the markets significantly. On March 19, XRP traded at $2.32, according to CoinGecko. At the time of writing, the asset hovers at around $2.44, a 5% increase.
On March 21, analysts said the new development had already been priced in. Nicolai Sondergaard, research analyst at Nansen, previously told Cointelegraph that the resolution had been widely expected.
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Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume, is considering a strategic reshuffling to strengthen its presence in the US market, a move that could see Binance co-founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao’s majority stake in the company reduced.
Zhao’s controlling stake in Binance has been a “major hurdle” to the company expanding to strategically critical US states, according to Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the matter. Although no concrete plans have been announced, the conversation surrounding any potential action remains reportedly “fluid.”
The company is also considering partnerships with US-based companies, including asset manager BlackRock and decentralized finance (DeFi) platform World Liberty Financial (WLFI), which is linked to US President Donald Trump, to strengthen its footprint in the country.
Rumors of Binance’s return to the US began to circulate in October after Trump pardoned Zhao, fueled by speculation from crypto industry executives and comments that Zhao made on social media.
“Will do everything we can to help make America the capital of crypto and advance Web3 worldwide,” Zhao said in October after the pardon.
In June 2019, Binance announced that it would stop serving US customers, and a separate company, called Binance.US and operated by BAM Trading Services, was formed to provide regulatory-compliant services to US users.
In 2023, the US Securities and Exchange Commission alleged that Binance Holdings Ltd. operated both Binance.com and BAM Trading Services.
Binance.US does not feature crypto derivatives or access to the global Binance exchange’s liquidity and operates as a completely separate crypto exchange.
Cointelegraph reached out to Binance and Binance.US but did not receive a response by the time of publication.
The US is considered a key market for crypto exchanges and is ranked as the number two for global crypto adoption, according to Chainalysis’ 2025 Global Crypto Adoption Index. Expanding to the US would open up US liquidity to the world’s largest crypto exchange.
Related: Binance names co-founder Yi He co-CEO alongside Richard Teng
Several US lawmakers voice opposition to the CZ pardon and the crypto industry
Trump’s pardon of Zhao in October drew backlash from several Democratic Party lawmakers in the US, including Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren and California Congresswoman Maxine Waters.
Waters said the pardon was a form of pay-to-play and accused Trump of doing political favors for the crypto industry that “helped line his pockets.”
Warren, who is one of the most vocal critics of the crypto industry, also criticized the pardon, characterizing it as “corruption.”
The comments reflect pockets of resistance among some Democratic lawmakers to the crypto industry’s continued expansion in the US and could signal potential opposition to Binance returning to the US.
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KuCoin announced an exclusive multiyear deal with Tomorrowland Winter and Tomorrowland Belgium from 2026 to 2028, making the exchange the music festival’s exclusive crypto and payments partner.
The move comes just weeks after KuCoin secured a Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) service provider license in the European Union.
KuCoin’s MiCA play goes mass‑market
KuCoin EU Exchange recently obtained a crypto asset service provider license in Austria under the EU’s MiCA regime, giving it a fully regulated foothold in the bloc as Brussels’ new rulebook for exchanges, custody and stablecoins comes into force.
The Tomorrowland deal signals how KuCoin plans to use that status, not just to run a compliant trading venue, but to plug crypto rails directly into mainstream culture.
KuCoin said the Tomorrowland deal will cover Tomorrowland Winter 2026 in Alpe d’Huez, France, and Tomorrowland Belgium 2026 in Boom, Belgium, with the same arrangement continuing through 2028.
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From sponsorship to payment rails
KuCoin insists this is not just a logo play. A spokesperson at KuCoin told Cointelegraph that as an exclusive payments partner, the exchange is working with Tomorrowland to weave crypto into the festival’s existing payments stack so that “financial tools” sit behind the scenes of ticketing, merch and food and drink.
The stated goal is to keep the rails “intuitive and invisible,” rather than forcing festivalgoers through clunky wallets or unfamiliar flows, with KuCoin positioning itself as facilitating the secure and efficient movement of value while fans focus on the music.
The company declined to spell out exactly which assets and rails will be supported on‑site, or whether every purchase will run natively onchain, but said that KuCoin’s “Trust First. Trade Next.” mantra runs through its messaging.
The spokesperson stressed advanced security, multi‑layer protection and adherence to EU standards as the foundation for taking crypto beyond the trading screen and into live events.
Related: What is Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA)?
Learning from FTX’s Tomorrowland flop
Tomorrowland’s organizers have been here before. In 2022, the festival announced a Web3 partnership with FTX Europe that promised NFTs and “the future of music festivals” before collapsing along with the exchange itself months later.
That experience makes the choice of a MiCA‑licensed partner, and the emphasis on user protection, more than cosmetic; it is a second attempt at bridging culture and crypto (this time with regulatory scaffolding and clearer guardrails).
Rather than setting public hard targets for user numbers or payment volumes by 2028, KuCoin is pitching success as “seamless integration” of crypto into the festival experience:
“We aim to demonstrate that digital assets can be a core component of global digital finance, moving from a niche technology to a mainstream utility. “
Related: Spain’s regulator sets out MiCA transition rules for crypto platforms
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