XRP ETF ‘obvious’ as Polymarket bettors up approval odds to 85%
Crypto community members are growing more optimistic about an XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) approval following the resolution of a multi-year legal battle between Ripple and the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
On March 19, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse announced the case had concluded. In an X post, the Ripple executive said the SEC will drop its appeal against Ripple, ending the $1.3 billion unregistered securities suit that started in December 2020.
Following the development, Nate Geraci, president of the advisory firm ETF Store, said on X that the approval of an XRP (XRP) ETF is next. Geraci said it was “obvious” that it’s only a “matter of time” before the SEC approves an XRP ETF.
The executive predicted that asset managers like BlackRock and Fidelity would be involved in offering the asset.
Polymarket punters give 86% odds to XRP ETF approval in 2025
Aside from Geraci, users on the crypto betting platform Polymarket also expect approval for an XRP ETF in 2025. On March 26, Polymarket gave an 86% chance that an XRP-based ETF product would be approved this year.
The bet will resolve if an XRP ETF receives approval from the SEC by Dec. 31. At the time of writing, the betting market had a volume of $55,000.
Polymarket shows an 86% chance that a Ripple ETF will be approved in 2025. Source: Polymarket
However, users only give a 42% chance that an XRP ETF will be approved before July 31.
Despite being a gambling site, Polymarket users’ predictions have historically been very accurate. A Dune Analytics dashboard studying the accuracy of Polymarket bets showed that the platform had been accurate by over 90% a month before betting markets were resolved.
Related: SEC plans 4 more crypto roundtables on trading, custody, tokenization, DeFi
XRP price only surged by 5% as the SEC battle ends
Despite being a huge milestone, the end of the multi-year legal battle between Ripple and the SEC failed to move the markets significantly. On March 19, XRP traded at $2.32, according to CoinGecko. At the time of writing, the asset hovers at around $2.44, a 5% increase.
On March 21, analysts said the new development had already been priced in. Nicolai Sondergaard, research analyst at Nansen, previously told Cointelegraph that the resolution had been widely expected.
Magazine: Memecoins are ded — But Solana ‘100x better’ despite revenue plunge
Crypto tokens are becoming increasingly efficient at capturing value, thanks in part to new regulations and upgrades, which could send prices surging in 2026, according to Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan.
Hougan said in an X post on Saturday that in the chaos of the current market pullback, big news is getting lost, such as the level of value capture in digital assets trending upward.
“Most of today’s tokens were created in a regulatory era where value capture was risky; as a result, they defaulted to vague governance-style design choices,” he said.
“Under the new regulatory climate, that’s being unwound. I think we’ll start to feel this effect in 2026.”
Uniswap rallied after investor-friendly proposal
Uniswap (UNI), the native token behind the crypto protocol of the same name, surged earlier this month after the Uniswap Foundation and Uniswap Labs introduced a proposal to make the token more attractive as an investment.
Among the ideas being floated were a protocol-level fee mechanism to burn the tokens and building a Protocol Fee Discount Auctions system to increase liquidity provider returns.
Hougan said this is one of the most obvious examples of a token trying to capture value, and predicts that if the proposal passes, it could send UNI into the top ten by market cap in the future.
“The big knock on UNI has always been that it is a governance token. Uniswap is great, but activity on Uniswap didn’t benefit UNI tokenholders,” he said.
“Except now, UNI is considering flipping the fee switch. If the vote goes through, ~16% of trading fees will be used to burn UNI. I suspect this will push UNI toward being a top 10 token by market cap over time.”
Fusaka upgrade could see Ether lead rebound
Hougan also pointed to Ethereum’s Fusako upgrade as a catalyst that could “significantly increase token value capture.”
The Fusako upgrade mainnet launch is expected in December and will roll out upgrades to Ethereum’s execution layer and improvements to staking economics, among other upgrades.
“I suspect the market will start to orient around the positive impacts of Fusaka soon, particularly if it’s delivered Dec. 3 as expected. It’s an under-appreciated catalyst and one reason ETH could lead the crypto rebound,” Hougan said.
Related: Bitwise exec says a bet on Solana gives ‘two ways to win’
XRP staking rewards also a boon
Hougan said Ripples XRP (XRP) token is also on the road to increasing its value capture with a possible staking addition.
“You see a growing focus on value capture in XRP as well. The community is starting to consider ideas like staking, which would change the economics for tokenholders,” he said.
“The connecting thread: The level of value capture in digital assets is up only from here. I think people look at token value capture as static. It’s not.”
Magazine: Bitcoin vs stablecoins showdown looms as GENIUS Act nears
Sir Keir Starmer has said he “absolutely” wants Angela Rayner back in his cabinet after she resigned for failing to pay the correct amount of stamp duty.
Speaking from the G20 Summit in South Africa, the prime minister told broadcasters his former deputy is “the best example ever” of social mobility and he is still in touch with her.
Asked if she could make a comeback this side of a general election, Sir Keir said: “I’ve always said I want Angela back. Even back in September at the time I said she is going to be a big voice in the Labour movement.
“Do I want Angela back at some stage? Yes absolutely.
“I think she is the best example ever in the United Kingdom of social mobility – going from a pretty challenging childhood to being deputy prime minister of the United Kingdom. She is the story of social mobility above all other stories.”
Asked if he missed having her around, Sir Keir said: “I’m friends with Angie and I like Angie a lot and we talk a lot. We still do.
“It’s always good to have Angela.”
Ms Rayner’s meteoric rise to the top of Labour came after she left school aged 16, pregnant and with no qualifications.
She was elected deputy Labour leader by the membership in 2020, and was made deputy prime minister then housing secretary by Sir Keir.
She resigned from all of those positions in September, after it emerged she had not paid the higher rate of stamp duty on a second home she bought in Hove, East Sussex, saving her about £40k.
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Rayner admits she didn’t pay enough tax
It followed a tearful interview with Sky’s political editor Beth Rigby about the “complex living arrangement” regarding her first home, which was sold to a trust following her divorce to provide stability for her teenage son, who has lifelong disabilities and is the sole beneficiary of the trust.
An investigation by the prime minister ethic’s watchdog found she breached the ministerial code by failing to get correct tax advice, but that she acted “with integrity”.
Ms Rayner is still a backbench MP and recently did not rule out a return to the front bench herself – telling the Daily Mirror during a visit to a care centre in her constituency that she had “not gone away”.
Other cabinet ministers have also supported her return.
During the Labour Party Conference a few weeks after she resigned, Health Secretary Wes Streeting paid tribute to her work on the Employment Rights Bill and said Labour “wants her back and needs her back”.
Politics
Rachel Reeves vows to ‘grip the cost of living’ – despite expectation of tax rises in budget
Chancellor Rachel Reeves has promised to “grip the cost of living” in the budget next week.
Writing in The Mirror newspaper, she acknowledged that high prices “hit ordinary families most” and that the economy “feels stuck” for too many.
But at the same time, she is expected to raise taxes when she sets out economic policies on 26 November as she seeks to bridge a multibillion-pound gap in her spending plans.
“Delivering on our promise to make people better off is not possible if we don’t get a grip on inflation,” Ms Reeves wrote in The Sunday Times.
“It is a fundamental precursor to economic growth. It is essential to make families better off and for businesses to thrive.
“There is an urgent need to ease the pressure on households now. It will require direct action by this government to get inflation under control.”
She said reforms would change the welfare system from “trapping millions of people on benefits” to one “designed to help people succeed”.
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Will PM keep his word on taxes?
It comes as the government announced that rail fares will be frozen for the first time in 30 years.
The fare freeze applies to England and services run by English train operators.
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Budget jargon explained
And it will save commuters on more expensive routes more than £300 a year.
Read more:
PM refuses to rule out manifesto-breaking tax rises
Will government lower energy bills in the budget?
Among the rumoured measures in the budget is an extension of the freeze on income tax thresholds, which would see more people dragged into paying tax for the first time or shifted into a higher rate as their wages go up.
However, Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch said Ms Reeves should “have the balls” to admit that such a move would breach Labour’s manifesto promise not to raise taxes on working people.
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