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XRP ETF ‘obvious’ as Polymarket bettors up approval odds to 85%

Crypto community members are growing more optimistic about an XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) approval following the resolution of a multi-year legal battle between Ripple and the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). 

On March 19, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse announced the case had concluded. In an X post, the Ripple executive said the SEC will drop its appeal against Ripple, ending the $1.3 billion unregistered securities suit that started in December 2020. 

Following the development, Nate Geraci, president of the advisory firm ETF Store, said on X that the approval of an XRP (XRP) ETF is next. Geraci said it was “obvious” that it’s only a “matter of time” before the SEC approves an XRP ETF. 

The executive predicted that asset managers like BlackRock and Fidelity would be involved in offering the asset. 

Polymarket punters give 86% odds to XRP ETF approval in 2025

Aside from Geraci, users on the crypto betting platform Polymarket also expect approval for an XRP ETF in 2025. On March 26, Polymarket gave an 86% chance that an XRP-based ETF product would be approved this year. 

The bet will resolve if an XRP ETF receives approval from the SEC by Dec. 31. At the time of writing, the betting market had a volume of $55,000. 

XRP ETF ‘obvious’ as Polymarket bettors up approval odds to 85%

Polymarket shows an 86% chance that a Ripple ETF will be approved in 2025. Source: Polymarket

However, users only give a 42% chance that an XRP ETF will be approved before July 31.

Despite being a gambling site, Polymarket users’ predictions have historically been very accurate. A Dune Analytics dashboard studying the accuracy of Polymarket bets showed that the platform had been accurate by over 90% a month before betting markets were resolved. 

Related: SEC plans 4 more crypto roundtables on trading, custody, tokenization, DeFi

XRP price only surged by 5% as the SEC battle ends

Despite being a huge milestone, the end of the multi-year legal battle between Ripple and the SEC failed to move the markets significantly. On March 19, XRP traded at $2.32, according to CoinGecko. At the time of writing, the asset hovers at around $2.44, a 5% increase. 

On March 21, analysts said the new development had already been priced in. Nicolai Sondergaard, research analyst at Nansen, previously told Cointelegraph that the resolution had been widely expected. 

Magazine: Memecoins are ded — But Solana ‘100x better’ despite revenue plunge

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Bitcoin adoption in EU limited by ‘fragmented’ regulations — Analysts

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Bitcoin adoption in EU limited by ‘fragmented’ regulations — Analysts

Bitcoin adoption in EU limited by ‘fragmented’ regulations — Analysts

Institutional adoption of Bitcoin in the European Union remains sluggish, even as the United States moves forward with landmark cryptocurrency regulations that seek to establish BTC as a national reserve asset.

More than three weeks after President Donald Trump’s March 7 executive order outlined plans to use cryptocurrency seized in criminal cases to create a federal Bitcoin (BTC) reserve, European companies have largely remained silent on the issue.

The stagnation may stem from Europe’s complex regulatory regime, according to Elisenda Fabrega, general counsel at Brickken, a European real-world asset (RWA) tokenization platform.

“European corporate adoption remains limited,” Fabrega told Cointelegraph, adding:

“This hesitation reflects a deeper structural divide, rooted in regulation, institutional signaling and market maturity. Europe has yet to take a definitive stance on Bitcoin as a reserve asset.”

Bitcoin’s economic model favors early adopters, which may pressure more investment firms to consider gaining exposure to BTC. The asset has outperformed most major global assets since Trump’s election despite a recent correction.

Bitcoin adoption in EU limited by ‘fragmented’ regulations — Analysts

Asset performance since Trump’s election victory. Source: Thomas Fahrer

Despite Trump’s executive order, only a small number of European companies have publicly disclosed Bitcoin holdings or crypto services. These include French banking giant BNP Paribas, Swiss firm 21Shares AG, VanEck Europe, Malta-based Jacobi Asset Management and Austrian fintech firm Bitpanda.

A recent Bitpanda survey suggests that European financial institutions may be underestimating crypto investor demand by as much as 30%.

Related: Friday’s US inflation report may catalyze a Bitcoin April rally

Europe’s “fragmented” regulatory landscape lacks clarity

The EU’s slower adoption appears tied to its patchwork of regulations and more conservative investment mandates, analysts at Bitfinex told Cointelegraph. “Europe’s institutional landscape is more fragmented, with regulatory hurdles and conservative investment mandates limiting Bitcoin allocations.”

“Additionally, European pension funds and large asset managers have been slower to adopt Bitcoin exposure due to unclear guidelines and risk aversion,” they added.

Related: Bitcoin ‘more likely’ to hit $110K before $76.5K — Arthur Hayes

Beyond the fragmented regulations, European retail investor appetite and retail participation are generally lower than in the US, according to Iliya Kalchev, dispatch analyst at digital asset investment platform Nexo.

Europe is “generally more conservative in adopting new financial instruments,” the analyst told Cointelegraph, adding:

“This stands in stark contrast to the deep, liquid, and relatively unified US capital market, where the spot Bitcoin ETF rollout was buoyed by strong retail demand and a clear regulatory green light.”

Bitcoin adoption in EU limited by ‘fragmented’ regulations — Analysts

iShares Bitcoin ETP listings. Source: BlackRock

BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, launched a Bitcoin exchange-traded product (ETP) in Europe on March 25, a development that may boost institutional confidence among European investors.

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NAYG lawsuit against Galaxy was ‘lawfare, pure and simple’ — Scaramucci

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<div>NAYG lawsuit against Galaxy was ‘lawfare, pure and simple' — Scaramucci</div>

<div>NAYG lawsuit against Galaxy was ‘lawfare, pure and simple' — Scaramucci</div>

The New York State Attorney General’s (NAYG) recent legal action against Galaxy Digital over its promotional ties to the now-collapsed cryptocurrency Terra (LUNA) was unfair and an abuse of the legal system, says SkyBridge Capital and founder Anthony Scaramucci.

“It’s LAWFARE, pure and simple due to an obscure but dangerously powerful New York law known as the Martin Act,” Scaramucci said in a March 28 X post.

Martin Law can “open the door for abuse”

“The law has no need to prove intent, creating a low standard of proof that can open the door for abuse like this. It shouldn’t exist,” he said.

New York’s Martin Act is one of the US’s strictest anti-fraud and securities laws, allowing prosecutors the power to pursue financial fraud cases without needing to prove intent. The NAYG alleged that Galaxy Digital violated the Martin Act over its alleged promotion of Terra, with Galaxy Digital agreeing to a $200 million settlement.

According to NAYG documents filed on March 24, Galaxy Digital acquired 18.5 million LUNA tokens at a 30% discount in October 2020, then promoted them before selling them without abiding by disclosure rules. 

Scaramucci reiterated that Galaxy CEO Michael Novogratz was under the impression everything he was saying about Luna was true, as he had been deceived by Terraform Labs and its former CEO, Do Kwon.

Law, New York, United States, Terra

Source: Amanda Fischer

Meanwhile, MoonPay president of enterprise, Keith Grossman, said he had never heard of the Martin Act and had to look it up using AI chatbot ChatGPT.

“It is so broad and essentially is the essence of lawfare,” Grossman said. “Sorry you got caught in the crosshairs of it, Mike,” he added.

Related: Sonic unveils high-yield algorithmic stablecoin, reigniting Terra-Luna ‘PTSD’

The filing alleged that Galaxy helped a “little-known” token, referring to LUNA, increase its market price from $0.31 in October 2020 to $119.18 in April 2022 while “profiting in the hundreds of millions of dollars.”

Asset manager and investor Anthony Pompliano said he isn’t familiar with the details of the lawsuit but vouched for Novogratz, calling him a “good man” who has devoted a lot of time and money to helping others.

The Terra collapse is one of the crypto industry’s most infamous failures. In March 2024, SEC attorney Devon Staren said in the US District Court for the Southern District of New York that Terra was a “house of cards” that collapsed for investors in 2022.

Magazine: Arbitrum co-founder skeptical of move to based and native rollups: Steven Goldfeder

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Elon Musk’s sale of X to xAI just made fraud lawsuit a ‘lot spicer’

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Elon Musk’s sale of X to xAI just made fraud lawsuit a ‘lot spicer’

Elon Musk’s sale of X to xAI just made fraud lawsuit a ‘lot spicer’

Billionaire investor Elon Musk has sold his social media platform X to his AI startup xAI, sparking controversy as it coincides with a US judge rejecting his bid to dismiss a lawsuit tied to the social media platform.

The transfer of ownership of X to xAI on March 28 means that the class-action lawsuit against Musk — accusing him of defrauding former Twitter shareholders by delaying the disclosure of his initial investment in the social media platform — has become “a whole lot spicer,” Cinneamhain Ventures partner Adam Cochran said in a March 28 X post.

Acquisition may open up xAI to more ‘exposure’

On the same day that Musk said “xAI has acquired X in an all-stock transaction,” a US judge reportedly rejected Musk’s attempt to dismiss the lawsuit. Cochran said it has “opened up his AI entity to exposure here too, and it’s a much bigger pie.”

Twitter, Elon Musk

Source: Grok

Musk said the deal values xAI at $80 billion and X at $33 billion, factoring in $12 billion in debt from the $45 billion valuation. He originally bought X, formerly Twitter, for around $44 billion in April 2022.

“xAI and X’s futures are intertwined. Today, we officially take the step to combine the data, models, compute, distribution and talent,” Musk said.

Twitter, Elon Musk

Source: Bryan Rosenblatt

“This combination will unlock immense potential by blending xAI’s advanced AI capability and expertise with X’s massive reach,” he said, adding:

“This will allow us to build a platform that doesn’t just reflect the world but actively accelerates human progress.”

However, Cochran claimed that “Musk used his pumped up xAI stock to pay multiple times over value for X, but still take an $11B loss on the transaction.” He said that Musk is “screwing over xAI investors, and X investors” and was executed to sell user data to xAI.

Related: Elon Musk’s ‘government efficiency’ team turns its sights to SEC — Report

xAI is best known for its AI chatbot “Grok” which is built into the X platform. When Musk released it in November 2023, he claimed it could outperform OpenAI’s first iteration of ChatGPT in several academic tests.

Twitter, Elon Musk

Source: Raoul Pal

Musk explained at the time that the motivation behind building Grok is to create AI tools equipped to assist humanity by empowering research and innovation.

While Cochran said that Grok being valued at $80 billion is an “insanely dumb valuation,” crypto developer “Keef” disagrees. Keef said, “This is shady all around, but given the day, Grok is genuinely probably the top model for various tasks.”

Magazine: Arbitrum co-founder skeptical of move to based and native rollups: Steven Goldfeder

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