OBR slashes UK growth forecast for 2025 but upgrades it for rest of parliament

Published

7 days ago

March 27, 2025

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The Office for Budget Responsibility has halved the UK growth forecast for 2025 from 2% to 1%, Chancellor Rachel Reeves has said.

However, the fiscal watchdog said that while growth has been downgraded for this year, it had been upgraded for every year after for the rest of this parliament – which is due to end in 2029.

The chancellor said she is “not satisfied with the numbers” for this year as she delivered her long-awaited spring statement in the House of Commons.

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But, she explained, the OBR has forecast growth to hit 1.9% in 2026, 1.8% in 2027, 1.7% in 2028, and 1.8% in 2029.

Some tough forecasts beyond headline figures

The independent forecaster also published its economic outlook on Wednesday, showing there’s a 54% chance the chancellor will not break her self-imposed fiscal rules to bring down government debt and balance the budget by 2030.

Living standards, as measured by household disposable income, will fall after this year to almost no growth in 2027-28 before rising again due to firms rebuilding profit margins, wage growth slowing, taxes rising, and welfare measures taking effect.

The OBR also raised its expectation for unemployment and net migration – the number of people immigrating to the UK minus those emigrating.

The unemployment rate, the percentage of people out of work, will rise to 4.5% this year. This is 0.4 percentage points or 160,000 people higher than first thought in the October forecast.

Net migration will fall sharply, the OBR said, due to a tightening of visa policies and higher levels of emigration. But the forecast has been upped by 25,000 since October as a higher share of immigrants are staying in the UK under the new migration system.

At the same time, there will be a reduction in people neither in work nor looking for work due to a reduction in caring as birth rates fall and childcare provision is expanded.

But there are also fewer people in this position, classed as “economically inactive” than previously thought, the OBR said. The government launched its welfare cuts in an effort to reduce this economic inactivity.

Further cuts are to come, the OBR said, as “unprotected” government departments such as local government justice, the environment, Home Office and culture may need to be cut by 0.8% a year from 2026-27 “to accommodate assumed commitments in other areas”.

Prices overall will go up even higher than initially anticipated, according to the OBR, which now forecasts inflation will rise to 3.8% in July due to higher energy, food and water bills. This will fall rapidly, however, from next year.

‘No shortcuts to growth’

Ms Reeves told MPs: “There are no shortcuts to economic growth. It will take long-term decisions. It will take hard yards. It will take time for the reforms we are introducing to be felt in the everyday economy.

“It is right that the Office for Budget Responsibility consider the evidence and look carefully at measures before recognising a growth impact in their forecast.”

The chancellor pointed to changes to the National Planning Policy Framework, saying mandatory housing targets and bringing “grey belt” land into scope for development will “permanently increase the level of real GDP by 0.2% by 2029-30”.

This will bring an “additional £6.8bn in our economy and by 0.4% of GDP within the next 10 years”, she said.

Ms Reeves also highlighted reforms to the pension system and a national wealth fund, adding it was part of a “serious plan” for economic growth.

Also announced in the spring statement today:

The budget will move from a deficit of £36.1bn in 2025/26 and £13.4bn in 2026/27, to a surplus of £6bn in 2027/28, £7.1bn in 2028/29 and £9.9bn in 2029/30;
The Office for Budget Responsibility estimates Labour’s cuts to the welfare budget will save £4.8bn, with changes going further than initially thought;
Reeves says the health element of universal credit will be cut by half and frozen for new claimants;
There are no more tax rises today, but the chancellor claims she’ll raise an extra billion pounds by cracking down more on tax evasion;
Day-to-day spending will be protected, other than the aid budget, with spending increasing above inflation every year;
The defence budget will get a £2.2bn boost for next year, paving the way for spending eventually hitting 2.5% of GDP;
House building will hit a 40-year-high thanks to Labour’s planning reforms.

The chancellor confirmed that a voluntary redundancy scheme is set to launch for civil servants as part of her mission to “make government leaner”. She said this will deliver £3.5bn in “day-to-day savings by 2029-30”.

Political reaction

Shortly afterwards, Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch accused Labour of financial “chaos”.

She said the spring statement was “all smoke and mirrors”, adding: “I remember the last budget when Rachel Reeves said she was smashing glass ceilings, now it feels like the roof is falling over all our heads.”

A handful of Labour MPs were unimpressed with the moves around welfare, with Debbie Abrahams – the MP for Oldham East and Saddleworth – claiming “all the evidence points to cuts in welfare leading to severe poverty and worsened health conditions”.

An impact assessment into Labour’s welfare reforms, which include narrowing the eligibility criteria for personal independence payments (PIP), found there could be an additional 250,000 people in “relative poverty” by 2030 due to the changes.

Richard Burgon, the Labour MP for Leeds East, said “taking away the personal independence payments” from disabled people is an “especially cruel choice”.

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70% chance of crypto bottoming before June amid trade fears: Nansen

Published

5 hours ago

April 2, 2025

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70% chance of crypto bottoming before June amid trade fears: Nansen

The cryptocurrency market may see a local bottom in the next two months amid global uncertainty over ongoing import tariff negotiations, which have been limiting investor sentiment in both traditional and digital markets.

US President Donald Trump is set to detail on April 2 his reciprocal import tariffs, measures aimed at reducing the country’s estimated trade deficit of $1.2 trillion in goods and boosting domestic manufacturing.

While global markets took a hit from the first tariff announcement, there is a 70% chance for cryptocurrency valuations to find their bottom by June, according to Aurelie Barthere, principal research analyst at the Nansen crypto intelligence platform.

The research analyst told Cointelegraph:

“Nansen data estimates a 70% probability that crypto prices will bottom between now and June, with BTC and ETH currently trading 15% and 22% below their year-to-date highs, respectively. Given this data, upcoming discussions will serve as crucial market indicators.”

“Once the toughest part of the negotiation is behind us, we see a cleaner opportunity for crypto and risk assets to finally mark a bottom,” she added.

Both traditional and cryptocurrency markets continue to lack upside momentum ahead of the US tariff announcement.

“For the main US equity indexes and for BTC, the respective price charts failed to resurface above their 200-day moving averages significantly, while lower-lookback price moving averages are falling,” wrote Nansen in an April 1 research report.

“Fragile market psychology highlights the necessity of “good news,” mainly on US growth and on tariffs,” added the report.

Bitcoin needs to hold $82k amid crypto market “wait and see” mode: analyst

Investors are currently in “wait and see mode” and are hesitant to take on large positions as markets lack direction.

However, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index remained above the “extreme fear” mark for a third consecutive session, which suggests a marginal improvement despite continued caution, Stella Zlatareva, dispatch editor at digital asset investment platform Nexo, told Cointelegraph.

“This reinforces the view that markets are in a wait-and-see mode,” Zlatareva told Cointelegraph, adding:

“Bitcoin continues to consolidate within the $82,000 – $85,000 range after experiencing a period of directional recalibration in Q1. The asset is navigating this zone with key support at $82,000 and upside potential toward $86,500 and $90,000 if broader sentiment stabilizes.”

Other traders are awaiting a Bitcoin breakout above $84,500 as a signal for more upside momentum amid the ongoing tariff uncertainty.

Magazine: Bitcoin ATH sooner than expected? XRP may drop 40%, and more: Hodler’s Digest, March 23 – 29

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VanEck eyes BNB ETF with latest Delaware trust filing

Published

6 hours ago

April 2, 2025

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VanEck eyes BNB ETF with latest Delaware trust filing

Investment company VanEck filed to register a Delaware trust company for an exchange-traded fund (ETF) tracking Binance-linked BNB cryptocurrency.

VanEck, on March 31, registered a new entity under the name VanEck BNB ETF in Delaware, according to public records on the official Delaware state website.

In filing 10148820, the entity is registered as a trust corporate service company in Delaware, hinting at a potential spot BNB (BNB) ETF in the United States.

According to social media reports, VanEck is the first company to propose a potential BNB ETF in the US, potentially signaling an expansion of BNB Chain — formerly known as Binance Chain — across traditional financial products in the market.

BNB ETP product already exists in Europe

While VanEck is the first to move toward a potential BNB ETF product in the US, similar products have been trading in Europe for several years.

Prominent European crypto asset manager 21Shares launched a BNB exchange-traded product (ETP) in Switzerland in October 2019, according to TradingView.

TradingView data suggests that 21Shares BNB ETP has only $15 million in assets under management (AUM), a 0.3% share of Switzerland’s total crypto AUM of $5.3 billion as of March 28, as reported by CoinShares.

The product reportedly saw a significant drop in fund flows in the past year, totaling 537 million euros, or $580 million.

What is BNB?

Formerly known as Binance Coin, BNB is the native digital asset of the BNB Chain, which is now described as a “community-driven and decentralized blockchain ecosystem for Web3 decentralized applications.”

BNB was launched by Binance in July 2017 as an ERC-20 token on the Ethereum blockchain as a tool to incentivize users to trade on their platform and pay for fees at a discounted rate.

Delaware, United States, Binance, Binance Coin, ETF — *Five top crypto assets by market capitalization. Source: CoinGecko*

At the time of writing, BNB is the fifth-largest cryptocurrency asset by market capitalization, worth about $88 billion, according to CoinGecko.

Altcoin filings surge with Trump administration

VanEck’s BNB ETF trust filing is just one of many new US altcoin ETF filings and registrations that have followed Donald Trump’s presidential inauguration in January.

In early March, VanEck registered a similar Delaware trust for an ETF tracking the price of Avalanche (AVAX), also becoming one of the first companies to register such a trust.

Many ETF issuers have filed for an XRP (XRP) ETF with the Securities and Exchange Commission, with at least nine companies submitting standalone XRP ETF filings as of March 12.

Magazine: SEC’s U-turn on crypto leaves key questions unanswered

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SEC and Gemini ask to pause lawsuit to explore ‘potential resolution’

Published

11 hours ago

April 2, 2025

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SEC and Gemini ask to pause lawsuit to explore ‘potential resolution’

The US Securities and Exchange Commission and crypto exchange Gemini have asked to pause the regulator’s suit over the exchange’s Gemini Earn program, saying they want to discuss a potential resolution.

In an April 1 letter to New York federal court judge Edgardo Ramos, lawyers representing the SEC and Genesis requested a 60-day hold on the case and that all deadlines be pulled “to allow the parties to explore a potential resolution.”

“In this case, the parties submit that it is in each of their interests to stay this matter while they consider a potential resolution and agree that no party or non-party would be prejudiced by a stay,” the letter states.

The lawyers added that a stay was in the court’s interest as “a resolution would conserve judicial resources” and proposed that a joint status report be submitted within 60 days after the entry of the stay.

The SEC sued Gemini and crypto lending firm Genesis Global Capital in January 2023, alleging they offered unregistered securities through the Gemini Earn program.

In March 2024, Genesis agreed to pay $21 million to settle charges related to the lending program, but the enforcement case against Gemini remains outstanding.

The letter did not specify what a possible resolution would entail, but the SEC has dropped several lawsuits it launched against crypto companies under the Biden administration, including against Coinbase, Ripple and Kraken.

In February, Gemini said the SEC closed a separate investigation into the firm as the regulator winds back its crypto enforcement under President Donald Trump.

“The SEC cost us tens of millions of dollars in legal bills alone and hundreds of millions in lost productivity, creativity, and innovation. Of course, Gemini is not alone,” Gemini co-founder Cameron Winklevoss said at the time.

OpenSea, Crypto.com and Uniswap, among others, have also recently reported that the SEC had closed similar probes into their companies that were investigating alleged breaches of securities laws.

Magazine: Bitcoin ATH sooner than expected? XRP may drop 40%, and more: Hodler’s Digest, March 23 – 29