Connect with us

Published

on

If there is a word that has dominated Donald Trump’s second term, it’s tariffs. 

Aluminium, steel, cars and champagne have all been in his firing line, while China, Canada and Mexico are the countries targeted with the heaviest costs.

But along the way, there have been threats, pauses and postponements.

His latest move was to announce a 25% tariff on all cars imported to the US.

So what are tariffs, what is in the pipeline – and what could all this mean for the UK?

What are tariffs and why is Trump threatening to use them?

Tariffs are taxes on goods imported into the US.

In his second term, Mr Trump has frequently used them – or the threat of them – as a trade weapon.

They were also part of his playbook in his first term, when he imposed taxes on most goods coming from China and used them as a bargaining chip to force Canada and Mexico to renegotiate a North American trade pact.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Could Trump spark a trade war?

On his first day back in office, the US president promised 25% tariffs on all products coming into the US from its nearest neighbours Mexico and Canada – ostensibly to force the countries to tackle illegal migration and the smuggling of the synthetic opioid fentanyl to the US.

What is liberation day?

Mr Trump has branded 2 April “liberation day”, when he could unveil reciprocal tariffs on countries deemed to be giving the US a bad deal on trade.

The extent of potential tariffs and countries affected remains unclear.

Mr Trump has said he “may give a lot of countries breaks, but it’s reciprocal”, adding: “We might be even nicer than that.”

But he said additional tariffs are coming, including on lumber and semiconductor chips, and has previously promised tariffs on pharmaceuticals.

He has also threatened to impose 25% tariffs on any country that buys Venezuelan oil.

The latest car tariff is also due to come into force on 2 April.

What does the car tariff mean?

The car tariff would mean all cars imported into the US face a 25% tax.

It is the importers that buy the goods who pay the tariffs – therefore, American companies.

However, there is a knock-on effect: to compensate for tariffs, companies put up their prices, so customers end up paying more for goods.

Tariffs can also damage foreign countries as it makes their products pricier and harder to sell.

A similar tariff on car parts is expected to follow in May. This could prove even more complicated for American car makers, who source components from around the world even if the vehicle is made in the US.

But Mr Trump has insisted the move will “continue to spur growth”, pointing to plans from Hyundai – the South Korean car maker – to build a $5.8bn (£4.5bn) steel plant in Louisiana.

How will the car tariff affect the UK – and is it planning to negotiate a trade deal?

The tariff could have a huge impact on the UK’s car industry, including manufacturers such as Jaguar Land Rover, Aston Martin and Rolls-Royce.

Official data shows that the US is the UK car sector’s largest single market by country, accounting for £6.4bn worth of car exports in 2023 – 18.4% of the total.

The UK government has signalled it would not retaliate with a reciprocal tariff – despite pleas from British manufacturers to avoid the tariffs.

While Chancellor Rachel Reeves condemned the move, she told Sky’s Wilfred Frost: “We’re not at the moment in a position where we want to do anything to escalate these trade wars.”

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

‘UK does not want a trade war with US’

Sky News understands the UK government is continuing to engage with the US on a trade deal and remains hopeful an agreement could be made before the tariffs come into force, but may retaliate if deemed necessary at a later date.

Ms Reeves seemingly alluded to the negotiations when she spoke to Sky News after the car tariff announcement.

“Trade wars are no good for anyone,” she said.

“It will end up with higher prices for consumers pushing up inflation after we’ve worked so hard to get a grip of inflation, and at the same time, will make it harder for British companies to export.

“So look, we are looking to secure a better trading relationship with the United States. I recognise that the week ahead is important.

“There are further talks going on today, so let’s see where we get to in the next few days.”

Mr Trump has not explicitly said that the UK is in his sights for further tariffs.

Data shows no great trade imbalances – the gap between what you import and export from a certain country – and UK figures show no trade deficit with the United States.

UK ministers have previously suggested this could be good news for avoiding new levies.

What has the reaction been around the world?

There was swift condemnation of the car tariffs, especially from countries worst affected including Mexico, Canada, South Korea and Germany.

Listed European car and car parts manufacturers saw further steep declines in their share prices in trading after the plans were announced.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney called it a “direct attack” on Canadian workers.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Canadian PM: ‘Tariffs are an attack’

Even Trump advisor Elon Musk, the Tesla boss, admitted in a post on his X platform that the hit to his company would be “significant”.

“Important to note that Tesla is NOT unscathed here. The tariff impact on Tesla is still significant,” he wrote.

Which tariffs are already in place?

On 12 March, a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminium imports to the US came into effect, affecting UK products worth hundreds of millions of pounds.

The steel and aluminium tariffs are designed to protect US manufacturing and bolster jobs by making foreign-made products less attractive.

The move came after he placed a 10% tax on all imports from China, which he later doubled to 20%.

He placed 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, but paused them for a month two days after they came into effect.

They are now paused until “liberation day”.

The pause does not fully cover a tariff of 10% on Canadian energy products.

What was the global response to steel and aluminium tariffs?

The European Union has said it will impose retaliatory tariffs on the US, but when they will come into force is unknown.

The European Commission initially threatened to impose “countermeasures” affecting €26bn (£21.9bn) of US goods from 1 April, but later delayed this until the middle of April.

The bloc said the delay was because it wanted “additional time for discussions” with the US after Mr Trump threatened a 200% tariff on EU alcohol – including wine and champagne – if the bloc imposed duties on US whiskey.

Any tariffs imposed by the bloc would not only impact US steel and aluminium products, but also textiles, home appliances, agricultural goods and whiskey.

Canada’s finance minister also announced 25% retaliatory tariffs on US goods worth C$29.8bn (£16bn) that came into effect on the morning of 13 March.

The tariffs include steel products worth C$12.6bn (£6.8bn) and aluminium products worth C$3bn (£1.6bn) as well as computers, sports equipment and cast iron goods.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Trump’s tariffs are ‘disappointing’

How did the UK respond to metal tariffs?

Sir Keir Starmer said he was “disappointed” by the global tariffs, but neither he nor Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds would commit to an immediate retaliation, with discussions over a wider trade deal ongoing.

While the UK metal industry sees it as a direct attack, the reality is that this country is not a major player any more because energy costs, in particular, mean that UK-produced steel is expensive.

Nevertheless, stainless steel and some high-end products from the UK are in high demand and account for the bulk of the £350m in annual exports to the US.

Read more on tariffs:
It may be harder for the UK to trump metals tariffs
‘Canadianos’ and cancelled Vegas trips: How Canadians are acting with defiance

Why tariffs could cost you – even if Trump spares UK

Even if no tariffs are put on all UK exports to the US, consumers globally will still be impacted by the wider trade war, particularly in the US.

Economists believe that tariffs will raise costs in the US, sparking a wave of inflation that will keep interest rates higher for longer. The US central bank, the Federal Reserve, is mandated to act to bring inflation down.

More expensive borrowing and costlier goods and services could bring about an economic downturn in the US and have knock-on effects in the UK.

Forecasts from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) predict lower UK economic growth due to higher global interest rates.

It estimated that UK GDP (a measure of everything produced in the economy) could be between 2.5% and 3% lower over five years and 0.7% lower this year.

The Centre for Inclusive Trade Policy thinktank said a 20% across-the-board tariff, impacting the UK, could lead to a £22bn reduction in the UK’s US exports, with the hardest-hit sectors including fishing and mining.

Continue Reading

US

Could Donald Trump run for a third term?

Published

on

By

Could Donald Trump run for a third term?

Donald Trump is one of two presidents to serve two non-consecutive terms, second only to Grover Cleveland, who did it in the 1800s.

But Mr Trump has made comments hinting at a third term in office.

An amendment to the Constitution, which is the supreme law of the United States, prohibits anyone from serving for more than two terms.

But what has the president said, how likely is he to pursue a third term in 2028 – and is it even possible?

Has a third term been done before?

Franklin Roosevelt served as US president four times from 1933 to 1945, because there was nothing in the original US Constitution that limited how many terms a president could serve.

But later the 22nd amendment limited presidents to two four-year terms, irrespective of whether they were served consecutively or not.

Franklin Roosevelt during his third term as president in 1942. Pic: AP
Image:
Franklin Roosevelt during his third term as president in 1942. Pic: AP

Congress passed the 22nd amendment two years after Roosevelt’s death and it took effect from the 1952 election.

No one has been able to serve more than two terms since.

The amendment states “no person shall be elected to the office of the president more than twice”.

What has Trump said?

The president made his most direct comments yet about seeking a third term in an interview with Sky News’ US partner NBC News on Sunday 30 March.

When asked about the possibility, he said: “A lot of people want me to do it. But, I mean, I basically tell them we have a long way to go, you know, it’s very early in the administration.

“I’m focused on the current,” he added.

When asked whether he wanted another term, the president responded, “I like working.”

“I’m not joking,” Mr Trump said, when asked to clarify. “But I’m not – it is far too early to think about it.”

When asked whether he has been presented with plans to allow him to seek a third term, Mr Trump said, there are “methods which you could do it”.

NBC News asked about a possible scenario in which vice president JD Vance would run for office and then pass the role to Mr Trump. Mr Trump responded that “that’s one” method.

“But there are others, too,” he added.

Asked to share another method, he simply responded “no.”

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

James and Ronna discuss whether JD Vance could make a future US president.

👉 Follow Trump 100 on your podcast app 👈

Some of Mr Trump’s allies have been vocal in their support for him pursuing a third term.

Steve Bannon, a former Trump strategist who runs the right-wing War Room podcast, called for the president to run again during a speech at the Conservative Political Action Conference last month, adding in a later interview with News Nation that he believed the president would “run and win again in 2028”.

Republican congressman Andy Ogles crafted a resolution calling for the extension of presidential term limits, which would allow Trump to seek another term in office.

Could Trump do it if he wanted to?

It would be “virtually impossible”, retired Commonwealth Court judge Joseph Cosgrove tells Sky News.

He would have to amend the Constitution to do it, which Mr Cosgrove says is an “arduous task”.

“The usual method requires two-thirds of both the House and Senate to propose an amendment, which would then require three-fourths of the states to approve,” he explains.

“Given the extremely close political divisions in the United States, neither of these events is foreseeable. Even if the Republicans control both the House and Senate, their majority will be so slim that no revision of the 22nd amendment could ever occur in this climate.”

Mr Fortier, who agreed with Mr Cosgrove’s points, says some legal scholars have suggested there are loopholes that could be exploited to get around the two-term limit.

“They argue that the 22nd amendment prohibits someone from running for a third term [but] not from serving a third term,” he says.

“And by an ingenious trick, a term-limited president could be elected to the vice presidency or placed in the line of succession and then ascend to the presidency when those ahead of him in the line of succession resign.”

This is the method Mr Trump alluded to, in which Mr Vance would be elected president in 2028 with Mr Trump as his vice president, before switching positions.

Mr Fortier says that this theory, however, ignores a number of other amendments and other constitutional laws which indicate that a vice president or someone else in the line of succession “must meet the qualifications to become president”.

And Mr Trump, or someone else who has already served two terms as president, would not meet that criteria thanks to the 22nd amendment.

Read more:
Who’s the ‘ice maiden’ first female chief-of-staff?
The secretary of state who said Trump has small hands
JD Vance: From ‘never Trumper’ to VP

Additionally, Derek Muller, a professor of election law at Notre Dame, notes the 12th amendment, which was ratified in 1804, says “no person constitutionally ineligible to the office of president shall be eligible to that of vice-president of the United States.”

This means that because Mr Trump is not able to be president in 2028, he also cannot be vice president, Prof Muller explains.

“I don’t think there’s any ‘one weird trick’ to getting around presidential term limits,” he continues, adding that pursuing a third term would require extraordinary acceptance by federal and state officials, not to mention the courts and voters themselves.

He suggested Mr Trump is talking about a third term for political reasons to “show as much strength as possible” rather than with the intention of running again.

“A lame-duck president like Donald Trump has every incentive in the world to make it seem like he’s not a lame duck,” he said.

Democratic congressman Daniel Goldman, who served as lead counsel for Mr Trump’s first impeachment, said in a statement: “This is yet another escalation in his clear effort to take over the government and dismantle our democracy.

“If Congressional Republicans believe in the Constitution, they will go on the record opposing Trump’s ambitions for a third term.”

What has the president said in the past?

It was in the lead-up to the 2020 election, which Mr Trump lost to Joe Biden, that he first started hinting at seeking a third term.

At a rally in August 2020, he told supporters he would win the next election and then possibly “go for another four years” because “they spied on my campaign”, an apparent nod to his unsubstantiated claims that Barack Obama had his “wires tapped” before he was elected in 2016.

According to Forbes, Mr Trump told another rally that if he were to win the 2020 election, he would “negotiate” a third term, adding he was “probably entitled to another four [years] after that” based on “the way we were treated”.

But in an interview in 2023 with NBC News, Mr Trump was asked if there was any scenario in which he would seek a third term should he win the presidency next year, to which he responded: “No.”

And in April 2024 he told Time magazine he “wouldn’t be in favour” of an extended term – but two vague comments he made in speeches last year stoked rumours he could try it.

One was during a National Rifle Association speech, when he asked supporters if he would be considered “three-term or two-term” – though this appeared to be in reference to his unsubstantiated claims that he should have won the 2020 election but that it was rigged against him.

Another came in July, when he told attendees at a conservative Christian event they wouldn’t “have to vote anymore” if he won the 2024 election, according to CBS News.

After repeatedly telling them to vote “just this time”, he added: “In four years, you don’t have to vote again. We’ll have it fixed so good, you’re not going to have to vote.”

John Fortier, senior research fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, says the comments from the Christian event have been taken out of context, and that Mr Trump was simply trying to “encourage the sometimes reluctant Christian community to vote in this election”.

“Trump in office would be able to address their concerns so much so that it would not matter if they chose to vote in future elections,” he explains.

“It was not an indication that Trump would cancel future elections or try to serve beyond his second term.”

Continue Reading

US

Are tariffs the answer to save America’s declining aluminium industry?

Published

on

By

Are tariffs the answer to save America's declining aluminium industry?

On the banks of the Ohio River in a rural corner of one of America’s poorest states sit two factories, one next to the other. 

One is open. The other is shuttered. Both cut to the heart of what Donald Trump hopes he can do to transform America’s industrial base.

Ravenswood, West Virginia, is a town built on aluminium. Since the 1950s, the wonder-metal has kept this place on the map.

Once upon a time, the metal itself was produced here. A massive smelting plant dominated the skyline, and inside, huge furnaces, transforming American aluminium ore (alumina) into the metal we recognise.

The newly smelted metal was then sent by river, rail and road to other factories dotted across the country to be cast – turned to sheet and coil for the nation’s cars, planes, trucks and so much more.

Kaiser Aluminium plant in West Virginia
Image:
The Kaiser Aluminium plant closed its smelters in 2009

Kaiser Aluminium closed its smelters in 2009. The plant now sits idle. Fencing surrounds it; grass partially obscures the entrance, where hundreds of workers would once have passed.

Two hundred metres down the road, there is a different story.

More on Donald Trump

Constellium Ravenswood is one of the world’s largest factories of its kind.

With over a thousand employees it produces plate, sheet and coiled aluminium for numerous industries: aerospace, defence, transportation, marine and more.

Its products are custom designed for clients including Boeing, Lockheed Martin and NASA.

Constellium Ravenswood is one of the world's largest factories of its kind

But here’s the problem. The Constellium plant uses aluminium now sourced from abroad. America’s primary aluminium production has dropped off a cliff over the past few decades.

The Kaiser plant next door which could have provided the metal for its neighbour to process and press was instead the victim of cheap foreign competition and high energy costs.

Smelting aluminium requires huge amounts of constant energy. If the smelters are ever turned off, the metal inside will solidify, destroying the facility.

Aluminium factory in West Virginia
Image:
Constellium Ravenswood is one of the world’s largest factories of its kind

In 2023, the annual rate of US primary aluminium production fell 21.4% on the previous year, according to the Aluminium Association.

However, the Canadian Aluminium Association projected that their annual production would be up by 6.12% in 2024 compared to the previous year.

The story is clear – this industry, like so many in America, is in steep decline. Competition and high production and energy costs are having a huge impact.

The danger ahead is that secondary aluminium production in America could go the way of primary production: firms down the supply chain could choose to buy their sheeting and coils from abroad too.

The answer, says President Trump, is tariffs. And the chief executive of Constellium agrees with him.

“We believe in free AND fair trade,” Jean-Marc Germain told Sky News from the company’s corporate headquarters in Baltimore. “And the point is that trade has been free but not fair.”

“There has been massive growth in the capacity installed in China. Kudos to the Chinese people, that is admirable, but a lot of that has been allowed by illegal subsidies. What it means is that overall, trade of aluminium products is broken as an international system. And I think those tariffs are a way to address some of that very uneven playing field that we are seeing today.”

Mr Germain says the tariff plan will reset the market. He accepts that blanket tariffs are a blunt and risky tool, but cuts out circumvention by one country to another.

“Obviously, this process creates some collateral damage. It is clear that not all countries and not all products are unfairly traded. But because of the sheer size of China and the history of Chinese production making its way through certain countries into the US… a blunt approach is required,” he says.

Jean-Marc Germain, CEO of Constellium
Image:
Jean-Marc Germain, chief executive of Constellium, agrees with Trump’s tariffs

The White House 25% tariff plan for steel and aluminium is global and causing huge angst.

Experts say a long-term domestic rebalance, revitalising the American industrial sector, will take many years and is not guaranteed.

But upending the status quo and disrupting established supply chains risks significant short and medium-term disruption, both at source and destination.

The foreign aluminium arriving at Ravenswood’s Constellium plant to be pressed will now cost 25% more – a hike in price which Mr Germain says his firm can ride out to achieve the longer-term rebalance.

“I’m not going to say that an increase in cost is a good thing for customers. But I think it’s important to look at things and put them in proportion…” he says.

Proportion is not a luxury all can afford. 250 miles to the east, in Washington DC and just four miles from the frenetic policy decisions at the White House, the Right Proper Brewing Company is a dream realised for Thor Cheston.

Thor shows me around his small warehouse-based business that is clearly thriving.

He takes me to the grain silos around the back. The grain is from Canada.

Thor relies on an international supply chain – the cans are aluminium and from Canada too. Some of the malt is from Germany and from Britain.

It is a complex global web of manufacturing to make American beer. Margins are tight.

Read more:
What are Donald Trump’s tariffs and how does it affect the UK?
Starmer: ‘Everything is on the table over US tariffs’

“We don’t have the luxury of just raising our prices. We’re in a competitive landscape,” Thor says. Competition with big breweries, who can more easily absorb increased costs.

The cans will probably go up in price on his next order. He doesn’t yet know how much of the 25% will be passed on to him by his supplier.

“We’ve dealt with major problems like this before. We’ve had to pivot a lot. We have survived the global pandemic. We’ve done it before, but we don’t want to. We just need a break.”

What about the government’s argument to ‘buy American’?

“It’s not as simple as that,” Thor says.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Will there be impacts from Trump’s latest tariffs?

Back in West Virginia the mighty Ohio River snakes past the Ravenswood factories.

It still carries what’s left of America’s heavy industry. A vast multi-vessel barge full of coal passed as I chatted to locals in the nearby town of Parkersburg, a pleasant place but not the thriving industrial community it once was.

“We used to have a really nice aluminium plant right down the river here and it shut down,” one resident reflects in a passing conversation.

Here you can see why many rolled the dice for Trump.

Sam Cumpstone blames Obama
Image:
Sam Cumpstone said Obama ruined lives in West Virginia by shutting down mines

“In West Virginia, we’re big on coal,” Sam Cumpstone tells me.

He works in the railways to transport coal. The industry went through economic devastation in the late noughties, the closure of hundreds of mines causing huge unemployment.

Sam is clear on who he blames: “Obama shut down mines and made ghost towns in West Virginia. It ruined a lot of people’s lives.”

There is recognition here that Trump’s sweeping economic plans could cause prices to rise, at least in the short term. But for Trump voter Kathy Marcum, the pain would be worth it.

Trump supporter Kathy Marcum talking in West Virginia
Image:
Trump supporter Kathy Marcum believes tariffs are the way forward

“He’s putting tariffs on other countries that bring their things in, and that way it equals out. It has to be even-stevens as far as I’m concerned… He is a smart businessman. He knows what the hell he’s talking about.

“It might be rough for a little while, but in the long run I think it will be best for the country.”

Communities have been let down over generations – either by politicians or by inevitable globalisation. There is still deep scepticism here.

“No politician worth millions or billions of dollars cares about me or you. Nobody,” Sam tells me at the end of our conversation.

The Trump tariff blueprint is full of jeopardy. If it fails, it will be places like West Virginia, that will be hit hardest again.

Continue Reading

US

Trump ‘p***ed’ off’ and ‘angry’ with Putin after comments criticising Zelenskyy

Published

on

By

Trump 'p***ed' off' and 'angry' with Putin after comments criticising Zelenskyy

Donald Trump has said he was “very angry” and “pissed off” after Vladimir Putin criticised the credibility of Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, in a phone call with Sky News’ US partner network, NBC News.

Mr Trump said the Russian president’s recent comments, calling for a transitional government to be put in place in Ukraine in a move that could effectively push out Mr Zelenskyy, were “not going in the right direction”.

It is a rare move by Mr Trump to criticise Mr Putin, who he has generally spoken positively about during discussions to end the war in Ukraine.

Last month, he also released a barrage of critical comments about Mr Zelenskyy’s leadership, falsely claiming that he had “poor approval” ratings in Ukraine.

The US leader added that if Russia is unable to make a deal on “stopping bloodshed in Ukraine” then he would put secondary tariffs on “all oil coming out of Russia”.

“That would be that if you buy oil from Russia, you can’t do business in the United States. There will be a 25% tariff on all oil, a 25 to 50-point tariff on all oil,” he said.

Mr Trump said Mr Putin knows he is angry, but added that he has “a very good relationship with him” and “the anger dissipates quickly… if he does the right thing”.

He said he plans to speak with the Russian president again this week.

👉 Follow Trump 100 on your podcast app 👈

The comments directed towards Mr Putin come after a separate phone call on Saturday, in which Mr Trump threatened Iran with bombings and secondary tariffs, if Tehran did not make a deal with the US to ensure it did not develop a nuclear weapon.

“If they don’t make a deal, there will be bombing,” Mr Trump told NBC. “But there’s a chance that if they don’t make a deal, that I will do secondary tariffs on them like I did four years ago.”

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said on Sunday that Iran had rejected direct negotiations with the US, but left open the possibility of indirect negotiations with Washington.

No one will be fired over Signal group chat blunder

Also addressing the national security blunder, which saw a journalist mistakenly added to a Signal chat group discussing planned strikes on Yemen, Mr Trump confirmed no one will be fired.

It was revealed this week that national security adviser Michael Waltz accidentally added The Atlantic’s editor-in-chief Jeffrey Goldberg to a group chat with senior members of the Trump administration who were discussing plans to strike Houthi militants earlier this month.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Marjorie Taylor Greene lashing out at Sky’s Martha Kelner

The White House sought to downplay the incident, with Mr Trump repeatedly branding it “fake news” throughout an interview with Sky’s network partner NBC News.

The president said on Saturday: “I don’t fire people because of fake news and because of witch hunts.”

Mr Trump said he still had confidence in Mr Waltz and Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth, who was also in the Signal chat and sent a detailed timeline of the planned strikes before they happened.

The president added: “I think it’s just a witch hunt and the fake news, like you, talk about it all the time, but it’s just a witch hunt, and it shouldn’t be talked [about].

“We had a tremendously successful strike. We struck very hard and very lethal. And nobody wants to talk about that. All they want to talk about is nonsense. It’s fake news.”

Read more from Sky News:
Make America a Commonwealth member? Trump would see himself equal to the King

JD Vance felt the cold in Greenland – and it wasn’t just the weather

Mr Trump’s comments come amid calls – including from his allies – to fire Mr Waltz after Mr Goldberg wrote on Monday that he had been added to a chat group on a private messaging app.

The Trump administration has since repeatedly claimed the Yemen plans were not classified.

Continue Reading

Trending