Donald Trump wants to redraw the political map of the world. His vision seems to be that smaller countries – such as perhaps Greenland, Ukraine and Taiwan – should fall under the sway of their local big power as the US, Russia and China expand their regional zones of influence.
There is a vicious logic to this new world order if one excludes the principles of democracy, independence, co-existence, borders and basic rights for all nations, regardless of size. It simply asserts that might is right. Mr Trump believes the US is the mightiest country and he is set on Making America Great Again at home and abroad.
Sucking up to the presidency
This is a grim prospect for a middle-sized post-imperial power like the United Kingdom. The leaders of Labour, the Conservatives, and Reform UK have chosen not to go public with any private misgivings they may have about the Trump administration’s intentions. They have all concluded that sucking up is the best way to handle the new presidency.
Image: King Charles. Pic: AP
This explains the astonishing reports that the King might invite the United States to become an associate member of the Commonwealth when Mr Trump visits him in Scotland later this year to plan his second state visit to this country.
Mr Trump has already welcomed the news about joining up with the Commonwealth. “I love King Charles. Sounds good to me!” he posted on his Truth Social platform.
There has been no official invitation to the president. “Associate” membership of the organisation does not exist. New members require the agreement of all 56 existing member countries. It is not up to the King, who is nominal head of the Commonwealth, or even the British government. And it is not called “the British” Commonwealth anymore.
More on Commonwealth
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Still, stranger things have happened – will happen again now Mr Trump is back in the White House.
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The first approach may merely be an invitation to become an associate of the Royal Commonwealth Society (RCS), which describes itself as “a network of individuals and organisations committed to improving the lives and prospects of Commonwealth citizens across the world”.
The RCS has already offered that to Mr Trump in 2017 shortly after his first election. Nigel Farage delivered the letter in person. Like most clubs the RCS is hungry to expand and has also put out feelers to Ireland and Nordic countries.
Neither Mr Trump nor the British government would leave it at this trivial level. He is a great disrupter always on the lookout for the upside in any deal and with a record of turning some ideas which seemed laughable into reality.
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1:50
Why is Trump getting a second state visit?
Starmer government has overlooked everything
The prime minister laid it on thick in the Oval Office with the “unprecedented”, “historic” second state visit invitation. Most US presidents, including those who have been conspicuous friends of this country, never get one.
The Starmer government has decided not to criticise the Trump administration. They have overlooked everything from claiming Canada as the 51st state to top officials breaching security on a Signal phone group in which they expressed “hate” for “PATHETIC” European “freeloaders”. In direct contrast to their Americanophilia, ministers are reluctant to discuss closer ties with Europeans.
It would be entirely consistent with this government’s sycophancy to try to engineer a further inducement to the US in the form of closer involvement in the Commonwealth, a last vestige of UK soft power.
Image: Sir Keir Starmer and Donald Trump. Pic: PA
Trump as the King’s successor?
Mr Trump would see any deal as a takeover in which he was the equal to the King, and his probable successor as head of the Commonwealth. He would be likely to try to remake the organisation with a so-called “White Commonwealth” dominating the other members.
That would go down well with his ethno-nationalist supporters back home. It is already the vision of one British champion of US participation.
“Commonwealth union – not least a CANZUK union between Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the UK – really should be a cross-party no-brainer for the British. What exactly does the UK have to lose?” asks the political commentator Jonathan Saxty in The Daily Express.
This nation’s integrity would be at stake. Only a truly “perfidious Albion” would let Mr Trump into the Commonwealth in the hope of buying his favour.
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2:11
What happened when Starmer met Trump?
The King would not be happy
The King, who has done his best to indicate support for his realm of Canada against Mr Trump’s threats, would not be happy. The legs would still be knocked out from under Canada’s resistance. All Commonwealth members would face the option of going it alone outside the alliance or bowing to Mr Trump. The US would meanwhile try to exploit old British ties to counter China’s growing influence in Africa and Asia.
There are already some in the UK ready to throw in their lot with the US. But not all of the coalition which elected Mr Trump agrees with his imperialistic expansionism.
America First isolationists tore into him after his “sounds good” comment, on his own Truth Social network. One wrote: “HELL NO !!! We left UK & kicked their asses once, NEVER going back. Personally I don’t associate with TYRANTS. All of their ‘commonwealth’ can F off, eh !!! SCUMBAGS !!!”
Another posted: “No! King Charles has been amongst the top players of WEF, for years. He’s a globalist. Americans do not want to join their Commonwealth. The U.K. allowed itself to fall to muslim invaders & Charles has ‘secret offer’ for you? Hard no from ALL of your supporters!”
Alex Jones of the conspiracy website Infowars warned: “If you really try to make America join the British Commonwealth, 1776 will commence again!” adding, “I love Trump overall… but sometimes he does just the most terrible things.”
No sign Trump’s fanbase is deserting him
Terrible or not, there is no sign this fanbase is deserting the president. As their Signal chat showed his closest aides embrace his simplistic, extractive, what’s the “economic upside” for us approach to foreign relations.
The British government should think very carefully about what they are prepared to offer up voluntarily to a rapacious American bully in this global geopolitical struggle.
France became the first G7 country to announce the move last week – while Ireland, Spain and Norway all officially recognised a Palestinian state last year.
Mr Carney told reporters in Ontario on Wednesday that Canada would do the same on certain conditions – including that the Palestinian Authority commits to fundamentally reforming its governance and to hold general elections in 2026 in which Hamas can play no part.
The Canadian prime minister said he had spoken with Mahmoud Abbas, the president of the Palestinian Authority, earlier on Wednesday.
Following the announcement, the Israeli foreign ministry said in a statement: “The change in the position of the Canadian government at this time is a reward for Hamas and harms the efforts to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza and a framework for the release of the hostages.”
A White House official later anonymously told Reuters that US President Donald Trump also believes he would be “rewarding Hamas” if he recognises a Palestinian state and therefore doesn’t plan to do so.
“President Trump’s focus is on getting people fed (in Gaza),” the official added.
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1:02
What do Israelis think of UK’s plan to recognise Palestine?
Canada had long-stated it would only recognise a Palestinian state at the conclusion of peace talks with Israel.
However, Mr Carney said the reality on the ground, including the starvation of citizens in Gaza, means “the prospect of a Palestinian state is literally receding before our eyes”.
He added: “We are working ourselves, with others, to preserve the possibility of a two-state solution, to not allow the facts on the ground, deaths on the ground, the settlements on the ground, the expropriations on the ground, to get to such an extent that this is not possible.”
The Canadian prime minister also said he “condemns the fact Israel has allowed a catastrophe to unfold in Gaza”.
Image: Palestinians carry aid supplies that entered Gaza through Israel, in Beit Lahia in the northern Gaza Strip.
Pic Reuters
British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer announced the UK could recognise a Palestinian state on Tuesday after he had a meeting with Mr Trump the previous day.
Sir Keir said the conditions Israel would have to meet in order to avoid such a move included taking substantive steps to end the “appalling situation in Gaza” and agreeing to a ceasefire.
Some 38 members of the House of Lords, including some of the UK’s most eminent lawyers, have since written to the attorney general to say that recognising a Palestinian state could be a breach of international law, The Times has reported.
They have said the territory may not meet the criteria for statehood under the Montevideo Convention, a treaty signed in 1933.
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0:48
Aid dropped into Gaza amid international pressure
Meanwhile, a Downing Street spokesperson confirmed Sir Keir had spoken to Mr Carney over the phone on Tuesday.
The spokesperson said: “They discussed the grave situation in the Middle East and last night’s action by the United States to tackle the severe threat posed by Iran’s nuclear programme.
“Both reiterated their support for a diplomatic solution and agreed that Iran must come back to the negotiating table with the United States as soon as possible.
“They looked forward to continuing their discussions at NATO this week.”
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A global hunger monitor has warned that a worst-case scenario of famine is unfolding in Gaza.
The Gaza health ministry reported seven more hunger-related deaths on Wednesday, including a two-year-old girl with an existing health condition.
Meanwhile, at least 48 Palestinians were killed and dozens were wounded on Wednesday while waiting for food at the Zikim Crossing, the main entry point for humanitarian aid to northern Gaza, according to the Shifa Hospital that received the casualties.
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0:15
Footage shows young girl in Gaza mourning family
It was not immediately clear who opened fire and there was no immediate comment from the Israeli military, which controls the crossing.
Israeli strikes and gunfire had earlier killed at least 46 Palestinians overnight and into Wednesday, most of them among crowds seeking food, health officials said.
The Israeli military did not immediately comment on any of the strikes. It says it only targets militants and blames civilian deaths on Hamas, because the group’s militants operate in densely populated areas.
US special envoy Steve Witkoff will travel to Israel on Thursday to discuss the next steps to address the situation in Gaza, an American official said.
An earthquake off the Russian peninsula of Kamchatka has triggered tsunami warnings in Japan, China, Hawaii, the US and central and Latin America.
The 8.8 magnitude earthquake occurred 12 miles below the surface of the water and around 80 miles southeast of the city of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, northeastern Russia on Wednesday, according to the US Geological Survey.
So far, it’s the most powerful on record since the 9.1 Japanese earthquake of 2011, which left more than 15,000 people dead, and the sixth strongest since records began.
Tsunamis have started to reach land in Japan and Hawaii, with urgent warnings being issued across the Pacific – from Asia to the US and Canada. Here’s what we know so far.
How did it start?
The earthquake struck at shallow depth 80 miles southeast of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky – a city of 165,000 people along the coast of Russia’s Avacha Bay, at around midday on Wednesday, local time (1am UK).
Image: A map shows the epicentre of the tsunami off the coast of Kamchatka Peninsula
Waves were recorded of up to 4m (13ft) in Severo-Kurilsk on the Kuril Islands where a state of emergency has been declared.
Russia’s Tass news agency reported people running out into the streets, with balconies shaking, furniture and glass broken inside homes, and cars swaying on the street. Around 2,700 people were evacuated.
Electricity cuts were also reported across the peninsula.
Several people were injured and had to seek medical assistance, according to regional health minister Oleg Melnikov.
“Unfortunately, there are some people injured during the seismic event. Some were hurt while running outside, and one patient jumped out of a window. A woman was also injured inside the new airport terminal,” he said.
Image: Severo-Kurilsk, Russia. Pic: Russian Academy of Sciences/Reuters
Image: Powerful waves engulf coastal buildings in Severo-Kurilsk. Pic: Reuters
Where else have tsunamis hit so far?
Injuries have been reported in several countries, but there are no known deaths so far.
Beyond Russia, waves have started to reach Japan, Hawaii, and the US West Coast.
Image: Tsunami waves off the coast of Japan. Pic: AP
Two million people have been evacuated along the country’s Pacific coast, with evacuation advisories in place in more than 220 municipalities, according to the Fire and Disaster Management Agency. Nuclear power plants have also paused activity.
One caused waves of 60cm (2ft) on the island of Hokkaido and another reached 50cm (1.6ft) at Ishinomaki port in the north of the country. In northern Iwate, 40cm (1.3ft) waves were registered at Kuji port.
The tsunami alert has been lowered for south of Fukushima but is still in place in the north.
Image: People evacuated to the rooftop of a fire department building in Mukawa, Hokkaido. Pic: Kyodo/AP
Image: A tsunami warning in Japan. Pic: Yomiuri Shimbun/AP
In Hawaii, people rushed to seek higher ground after waves measured 1.82m (6ft).
Earthquake sirens blared in the streets, with beaches closed and coastal areas evacuated. Maui airport was also closed, Hawaii Governor Josh Green added.
Evacuation orders were later lifted, with the Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre (PTWC) saying it was safe to return to coastal areas.
In Alaska, 30cm (1ft) waves were observed in the communities of Amchitka and Adak, according to Dave Snider, tsunami warning coordinator.
Image: A hotel overlooking Waikiki Beach in Hawaii on Wednesday. Pic: Reuters
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3:08
Tsunami warning for Pacific region
Where are the other warnings in place?
In China, the country’s tsunami warning centre has issued alerts for eastern coastal areas – particularly Shanghai and Zhejiang, which was already under alert from Typhoon CoMay, due to land on Wednesday.
States along the US West Coast have issued tsunami advisories, including Oregon, Washington State, and California, where waves have already hit.
Oregon’s Department of Emergency Management cautioned: “This is not a major tsunami, but dangerous currents and strong waves may pose a risk to those near the water.”
President Donald Trump posted on X: “A Tsunami Watch is in effect for Alaska and the Pacific Coast of the United States. Japan is also in the way. Please visit tsunami.gov/ for the latest information. STAY STRONG AND STAY SAFE!”
The Mexican Navy said that tsunami waves were due to hit Mexico’s northern coast at Ensenada near California, and could progress to Chiapas.
In New Zealand, the country’s disaster management agency issued warnings for coastal areas, which are likely to see “strong and unusual currents and unpredictable surges at shore”.
There is currently no need for official evacuation orders, it added, but people are being told to stay away from the coast.
The Pacific Island nations of Fiji, Samoa, Tonga, Micronesia, and the Solomon Islands have all issued warnings, as their low-lying topography puts them at particular risk.
The Philippines had a tsunami advisory in place but cancelled it after “no significant sea level disturbances or destructive tsunami waves” were reported after 7.25am local time (12.25am UK) on Wednesday.
The five most powerful earthquakes on record
The ‘Great Chilean’ earthquake in Biobio, central Chile in 1960 is the most powerful on record, at a magnitude of 9.5. More than 1,600 people died and thousands more were injured.
An earthquake in Alaska in 1964 reached a magnitude of 9.2, triggering landslides, deadly waves, and severe flooding. Aftershocks continued for weeks and 130 people died.
The Boxing Day tsunami of 2004 happened off Sumatra, Indonesia, killing 167,000 people there and 230,000 in total across southeast and southern Asia, as well as reaching parts of east Africa.
The Japanese earthquake of 2011 triggered a tsunami that hit the Fukushima nuclear power plant, blacking out its power system and causing the meltdown of three reactors. More than 18,000 people died.
Kamchatka had another powerful earthquake in 1952, registering 9.0 in magnitude and causing a tsunami that hit Hawaii with 9m (30ft waves). Miraculously, no one died.
What happens during a tsunami – and why are they so dangerous?
Tsunamis are a series of very long waves usually caused by an earthquake beneath the ocean’s surface. Although rare, they can also be triggered by landslides, volcanic activity, and sometimes by extreme weather above the ocean.
Unlike normal waves, which are driven by wind, tsunamis move through the entire ocean column – from the sea floor to the surface.
This means they can be incredibly powerful and fast – reaching plane-like speeds of around 500mph in the deepest parts of the ocean.
Their force means they can stretch across an entire ocean basin, impacting multiple countries. The 2004 Boxing Day tsunami caused damage in 17 nations.
Tsunamis become most dangerous when they reach land. The shallowness of the water sees the length of the waves decrease – but their height increase.
Tall waves can be very dangerous. It only requires six inches of water to knock someone off their feet and double that to sweep away a car.
Tsunami waves are also dangerous when they go back out to sea, carrying heavy debris with them.
An enormous 8.8 magnitude earthquake has hit off the far east of Russia – potentially the sixth largest on record.
The quake has triggered waves of up to 4m (13ft) in the Kamchatka Peninsula, where buildings were damaged and several people injured, officials said.
It has also led to tsunami fears across the Pacific, with warnings and alerts in place across Japan, parts of the US including Hawaii, California and Alaska, and the Philippines.
The US Geological Survey (USGS) said the earthquake was shallow at a depth of 19.3km (12 miles), and was centred about 125km (80 miles) east-southeast of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, a city of 165,000 along the coast of Avacha Bay.
Image: A powerful wave washes past a building located near the shore off the Kamchatka Peninsula in Russia. Pic: Reuters
Here we look at how it compares to some of the highest magnitude quakes recorded by the USGS.
Biobio, Chile (1960)
A 9.5 magnitude earthquake – known as the Valdivia earthquake or Great Chilean earthquake – struck in a central region of Chile in 1960.
It is the largest ever recorded earthquake, and resulted in more than 1,600 deaths in the country and beyond, most of which were caused by the resulting large tsunami.
Thousands of others were injured.
Alaska (1964)
A 9.2 magnitude earthquake hit Alaska’s Prince William Sound in 1964, lasting for almost five minutes and becoming the largest recorded earthquake in the US.
There were huge landslides and towering waves which caused severe flooding, and the event was followed by thousands of aftershocks for weeks.
More than 130 people were killed.
Sumatra, Indonesia
Image: An area hit by both the huge earthquake and subsequent tsunamis in Indonesia. Pic: AP
A 9.1 magnitude earthquake and subsequent tsunami devastated Southeast and South Asia and East Africa in 2004.
It was the most disastrous earthquake in terms of fatalities, killing 230,000 people, including 167,000 in Indonesia, where entire communities were wiped out.
Tohoku, Japan
Another 9.1 magnitude earthquake struck off the coast of northeastern Japan in 2011, triggering a towering tsunami that smashed into the Fukushima nuclear plant.
This led to power and cooling systems being knocked out, and triggered meltdowns in three reactors.
More than 18,000 people were killed in the quake and tsunami. Some bodies have never been recovered.
Image: A tsunami engulfs a coastal region of northeastern Japan on 11 March 2011. Pic: Kyodo/AP
Kamchatka, Russia
A 9.0 magnitude quake resulted in a tsunami with 9.1m (30ft) waves hitting Hawaii in 1952, causing significant damage but no fatalities.
Biobio, Chile (2010)
Image: A man clears rubble after earthquake hits Chile on 27 February 2010. Pic: Reuters
Central Chile was hit by a 8.8 magnitude earthquake in 2010, lasting for 90 seconds and setting off a tsunami.
More than 500 people were killed in the disaster.
Esmeraldas, Ecuador
An 8.8 magnitude earthquake resulted in a tsunami that killed about 1,500 people in Ecuador in 1906.
Its effects were felt for miles along the Central American coast and as far as San Francisco and Japan.
Alaska (1965)
A magnitude 8.7 quake struck Alaska’s Rat Islands in 1965, causing an 11m (35ft) high tsunami. It only resulted in relatively minor damage, including cracks in buildings and an asphalt runway.
Tibet
At least 780 people were killed when a magnitude 8.6 earthquake struck in 1950, destroying dozens of villages, including at least one that slid into a river.
Major landslides jammed the Subansiri River in India, and a deadly 7m (23ft) wave was created when the water eventually broke through.
Sumatra, Indonesia
Image: A guard walks on the ruins of prison wall which collapsed in Indonesian city of Banda Aceh in 2012 quake. Pic: Reuters
An 8.6 magnitude earthquake struck off the west coast of northern Sumatra in Indonesia in 2012.
The quake caused little damage, but it did increase pressure on a fault that had been the source of the devastating 2004 tsunami.