TikTok creators, partners remain optimistic ahead of app’s second ban deadline
Photo illustration shows the TikTok logo displayed on a mobile phone screen.
Sopa Images | Lightrocket | Getty Images
For the second time this year, TikTok is staring at a deadline that could determine its fate in the U.S. and that of numerous creators and brands that have built businesses on the Chinese-owned social app.
The sense of urgency that led some creators to post wistful goodbye videos in January has shifted to a more cautiously optimistic outlook, with creators and firms saying they believe TikTok will remain in the U.S. They are, however, hedging their bets.
“I’m trying to be optimistic and hope that they keep it, but as a creator, I have to be prepared either way,” said Gianna Christine, a creator with 2.7 million TikTok followers.
TikTok could be effectively banned in the U.S. on April 5 because of a national security law originally signed by former President Joe Biden that requires its Chinese parent ByteDance to divest the app’s American operations. ByteDance originally faced a Jan. 19 deadline to sell TikTok, but Trump signed an executive order instructing the attorney general to not enforce the law, granting the Chinese company 75 more days to divest the U.S. portion of its business.
Gianna Christine makes lifestyle videos about living in New York City to her nearly 3 million followers on TikTok.
Gianna Christine
Like others who spoke with CNBC, Christine said she hasn’t received any direct updates from TikTok about its future. Christine said she’s staying positive about TikTok’s chances of remaining in the U.S. but she’s also expanding her presence on platforms like Snapchat and YouTube as a precaution.
“You never know what will happen,” Christine said.
Throughout his 2024 presidential campaign, Trump said many positive comments about TikTok and used the app as a campaign tool. Trump said Sunday that he is “pretty certain” that a TikTok deal will be reached before the April deadline, according to AFP. Last week, Trump said he may extend the deadline if a deal isn’t reached and that he may reduce tariffs on China to help facilitate a transaction.
“I really don’t see TikTok getting banned,” said Olivia Plotnick, the founder of the Wai Social marketing and consultancy agency. “Trump really is going to want to show how amazing he is, and make a deal happen.”
TikTok and the White House did not respond to requests for comment.
Whatever is in store for TikTok, the company is acting like business as usual.
Current and former TikTok workers said they have received no communication from management about its future in the U.S. Brands and creators said they have received no updates from the company either.
That lack of communication and the uncertainty of the app’s future hasn’t stopped TikTok from moving forward with new partnerships.
Marketing firm Meltwater, for example, announced that it joined TikTok’s marketing partners program in March. Aditya Jami, Meltwater’s tech chief, said that his TikTok contacts seemed to be “in the dark” about the app’s future, but they went ahead with the partnership, which will require deep integration between the two companies.
“They are actually going to do more and more things that we can build together and then expose to our customers, so I feel like it’s going business as usual,” Jami said.
TikTok creator Alyssa McKay has more than 10 million followers, but she’s been proactive about diversifying her following across more platforms.
“If you’re not already posting on Snapchat, Instagram Reels, YouTube Shorts, that’s where you need to be,” said McKay, adding that her efforts to get ahead of a potential ban have resulted in her already earning more revenue from other platforms than she does on TikTok.
Alyssa McKay is a content creator with over 10 million followers on TikTok.
Alyssa McKay
The first TikTok ban deadline didn’t significantly alter the social media postings from creators and brands, according to data provided to CNBC by Later, a social media and influencer marketing firm.
Social media users increased their posts on Threads and YouTube by 10% and 6%, respectively, the week of the TikTok ban in January compared to the week prior, according to Later. Still, the general posting habits of brands and creators during the week after the January deadline compared to the week preceding it were nearly identical, a spokesperson for Later said.
Throughout March, creators and brands steadily reduced the number of scheduled TikTok posts they plan to publish during the weeks leading up to the April deadline while increasing their scheduled Instagram posts, Later data showed. The March data suggests creators and brands are “reallocating content to Instagram as a safer or more stable alternative,” the Later spokesperson said.
For a brief moment, the Chinese social media app RedNote rose to the top of Apple’s app store during the week leading to the January deadline. Known as Xiaohongshu in China, that app has similar short-video features as TikTok, but it has a user base comprised mostly of women from more affluent Chinese cities that embraced the sudden influx of American users, Plotnick of Wai Social said.
“They were super welcoming, and it was a really fun time,” Plotnick said.
RedNote’s moment in the sun won’t likely repeat. The app is no longer a priority now that TikTok has resumed normal operations, creators and brands said.
“I don’t foresee buzz around alternative apps like RedNote,” Later CEO Scott Sutton said. “Those were a blip and lacked the staying power of other platforms.”
It’s unclear whether lawmakers who are concerned about the Chinese Communist Party or TikTok-competitors like Meta or Google would take to the courts to enforce the national security law, said Neil Chilson, a former chief technologist at the Federal Trade Commission who now heads AI policy at Abundance Institute non-profit. Taking that kind of legal action carries the risk of upsetting TikTok’s giant user base and Trump, Chilson said.
“Trump likes this sort of leverage that the law provides him,” Chilson said. “He’s obviously using quite aggressively — not quite in the text of the law — his latitude to make deals to continue to string this along.”
WATCH: TikTok is a digital Trojan horse, says Hayman Capital’s Kyle Bass
Technology
Wall Street cools on Oracle’s buildout plans as debt concerns mount: ‘AI sentiment is waning’
Oracle CEO Clay Magouyrk speaks at a Q&A following a tour of the OpenAI data center in Abilene, Texas, U.S., Sept. 23, 2025.
Shelby Tauber | Reuters
Two months ago, Oracle’s stock had its best day since 1992, soaring 36% to a record after the company blew away investors with its forecast for cloud infrastructure revenue.
Since then, the company has lost one-third of its value, more than wiping out those gains. Midway through November, the stock is on pace for its worst month since 2011.
The hype was sparked by Oracle’s strengthening ties to OpenAI. But the mood of late has turned, with investors questioning whether the AI market ran too far, too fast and whether OpenAI can live up to its $300 billion commitment to Oracle over five years.
“AI sentiment is waning,” said Jackson Ader, an analyst at KeyBanc Capital Markets, in an interview.
Ader said that of the big cloud companies in the GPU business, Oracle is expected to generate the least amount of free cash flow. To fund the capex required for Oracle’s business, Ader expects Oracle to turn to more creative financing tools.
Oracle is looking to raise $38 billion in debt sales to help fund its AI buildout, according to sources with knowledge of the matter who asked not to be named because the information is confidential. Bloomberg reported on the planned debt raise last month.
The company needs a massive pool of capital as it works with partners to develop and lease data centers across Texas, New Mexico and Wisconsin, while also buying hundreds of thousands of graphics processing units (GPUs) from Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices to run AI models.
At Oracle’s big annual conference in October, called AI World, tech enthusiasts cheered the company’s cloud infrastructure design as being easily scalable. Investors remained largely enthusiastic at the time, thanks to Oracle’s over $450 billion in signed contracts that hadn’t yet been recognized as revenue.
Skepticism started to hit shortly after the conference. Oracle shares fell 7% on Oct. 17, as investors questioned the company’s ability to reach its lofty outlook announced at its investor day. Oracle said it expected to reach $166 billion in cloud infrastructure revenue in the 2030 fiscal year, up from $18 billion in fiscal 2026.
Oracle’s next quarterly earnings report is expected in mid-December.
Andrew Keches, an analyst at Barclays, said off-balance sheet debt facilities and vendor financing are two options for Oracle. Keches recently downgraded Oracle’s debt, citing the company’s “significant funding needs.”
“We struggle to see an avenue for ORCL’s credit trajectory to improve,” Keches wrote in a note to clients this week.
Oracle Corp Chief Executive Larry Ellison during a launch event at the company’s headquarters in Redwood Shores, California June 10, 2014.
Noah Berger | Reuters
Oracle bulls point to founder Larry Ellison’s long and storied track record. A hedge fund manager who asked to remain anonymous told CNBC that Ellison is “someone you don’t want to bet against.”
And Rishi Jaluria, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets, said in an interview that Oracle could rebuild its momentum in the market with more AI deals. However, Jaluria currently has a hold rating on the stock.
As more investors look to hedge their bets, Oracle’s 5-year credit default swaps have climbed to a 2-year high, a level that’s not alarming but worth watching, credit analysts told CNBC. Credit default swaps are like insurance for investors, with buyers paying for protection in case the borrower can’t repay its debt.
Barclays recommended clients buy Oracle’s 5-year credit default swaps.
Oracle didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment. Last month, CNBC’s David Faber asked Clay Magouyrk, one of Oracle’s two CEOs, whether OpenAI will be able to pay Oracle $60 billion a year. Magouyrk responded, “of course,” while also pointing to OpenAI’s growth prospects and rapid rise in users.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said in a post on X last week that the company will top $20 billion in annualized revenue this year and reach hundreds of billions of dollars by 2030.
Gil Luria, an analyst at D.A. Davidson, told CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Wednesday that Oracle represents the “bad behavior in the AI buildout.” He contrasted Oracle with Microsoft, Amazon and Google, which he said all have the available cash and customer demand to justify their rapid expansions.
For Oracle, however, there’s an overreliance on OpenAI, a cash-burning startup, Luria said. Additionally, he said that gross margins for renting out GPUs are dramatically lower than the roughly 80% margin in the company’s core business. Luria has a hold rating on the stock.
In terms of the $100 of stock appreciation that initially followed the last earnings report, “it makes a lot of sense that that’s completely gone away,” Luria said.
WATCH: Oracle and CoreWeave represent ‘bad behavior’ in AI buildout
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