Here is a number to lodge in your brain in the coming weeks and months: 48%.
Last year a group of economists carried out an an analysis on the economic impact of the Iron Curtain; how much trade actually took place from east to west in spite of all the restrictions during the Cold War. They came to the conclusion that, at its height in 1951, “the Iron Curtain represented a tariff equivalent of 48%”.
As the world limbers up ahead of what Donald Trump calls his “liberation day”, that figure is worth keeping in your mind.
Right now, the average dutiable rate of tariffs on China is somewhere between 30% and 40%. But in the event that the president imposes another 20% of tariffs on China, the level of tariffs between these two trade partners will rival or possibly exceed those Iron Curtain levels.
Image: President Donald Trump speaks at the White House.
Pic: AP
No-one is sure what will happen next. What number will the President choose for his next round of tariffs? 10%? 20%? Or the 25% rate he has favoured for steel, aluminium and cars? Will the next round of tariffs announced this week be imposed on every country? Will they just be imposed on the so-called “dirty fifteen” the Treasury Secretary has talked about? Who, for that matter, are the “dirty fifteen”?
We don’t know the answers to these questions. Nor do other world leaders like Keir Starmer. Nor, for that matter, do many in the White House, it seems.
But, back to that number at the top. The tariffs being talked about by the president and his colleagues are now approaching serious levels. Once you start facing cumulative tariffs approaching 50% then, as we saw during the Cold War, many countries stop trading altogether.
More on Donald Trump
Related Topics:
And with those kinds of charges looming it’s no surprise many businesses and traders are taking radical steps to try to prepare for the coming months of chaos. Consider two examples.
The first is to be found if you look at the exports (transfers is probably a better word in this case) of gold from the UK to the US. Up until a few months ago these flows averaged about £22m a month. Then, as traders fretted about the imposition of tariffs and controls on everything (including gold), there was a totally unprecedented exodus of gold bars from the UK to the US – £1.2bn in December and £6.1bn in January. These numbers, it goes without saying, are totally unprecedented. We’ve never seen outflows like this before.
The other data point (somewhat related) is to be found by looking at the US balance of payments. Remember the whole point of these tariffs is to try to eliminate (or at least reduce) America’s trade deficit with the rest of the world. President Trump wants the country to produce more goods and import less.
But in the past year, the US trade deficit has literally doubled. Up from £67bn in January last year to £131bn this January. Again, this is unprecedented. It’s a hallmark of the fact that importers were scrambling to bring as much stuff into the country as possible (not just gold, but machinery, metals, cars, electronics – everything) before tariffs got imposed.
The great irony, then, is that the first impact of the Trump tariffs has been to send the trade deficit in the opposite direction from the one the President is aiming for. It will, of course, lurch back the other way in the coming months. But where it ends is anyone’s guess. In the meantime, more chaos and instability awaits. Hold onto your hats.
The US president has spent months verbally attacking Mr Powell.
More from US
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
2:18
Fed chair has ‘done a bad job’, says Trump
There were clear tensions between the pair last Thursday as they toured the Federal Reserve in Washington DC, which is undergoing renovations.
When taking questions, Mr Trump said: “I’d love him to lower interest rates,” then laughed and slapped Powell’s arm.
Image: There were clear tensions between the US President and Mr Powell during last week’s visit to the Federal Reserve. Pic: Reuters
The US president also challenged him, in front of reporters, about an alleged overspend on the renovations and produced paperwork to prove his point. Mr Powell shook his head as Trump made the claim.
When Mr Trump was asked what he would do as a real estate mogul if this happened to one of his projects, he said he’d fire his project manager – seemingly in reference to Mr Powell.
Image: Donald Trump challenged Mr Powell in front of reporters. Pic: Reuters
Unlike the UK, the US interest rate is a range to guide lenders rather than a single percentage.
The Fed has expressed concern about the impact of Mr Trump’s signature economic policy of implementing new tariffs, taxes on imports to the US.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
1:42
Trump’s tariffs: What you need to know
On Wednesday, the president said he was still negotiating with India on trade after announcing the US will impose a 25% tariff on goods imported from the country from Friday.
Mr Trump also signed an executive order on Wednesday implementing an additional 40% tariff on Brazil, bringing the total tariff amount to 50%, excluding certain products, including oil and precious metals.
Follow The World
Listen to The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim every Wednesday
The committee which sets rates voted 9 to 2 to keep the benchmark rate steady, the two dissenters were appointees of President Trump who believe monetary policy is too tight.
In a policy statement to explain their decision, the Federal Reserve said that “uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated” but growth “moderated in the first half of the year,” possibly bolstering the case to lower rates at a future meeting.
Nathan Thooft, chief investment officer at Manulife Investment Management, described the rate decision as a “kind of a nothing burger” and it was “widely expected”.
Tony Welch, chief investment officer at SignatureFD, agreed that it was “broadly as expected”. He added: “That explains why you’re not seeing a lot of movement in the market right now because there’s nothing that’s surprising.”
A powerful 8.8-magnitude earthquake has struck off Russia’s far eastern Kamchatka Peninsula, causing a tsunami.
A tsunami of up to four metres (13 feet) was recorded in Kamchatka Peninsula, leading to evacuations and damaging buildings, officials said.
Tsunami warnings have been issued for Japan, the Philippines, Hawaii and parts of Alaska in the US.
The Honolulu Department of Emergency Management in Hawaii has called for the evacuation of some coastal areas, writing on X: “Take Action! Destructive tsunami waves expected.”
The first waves in Hawaii are expected to hit at 7pm local time (6am UK time).
The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center has said waves of one to three meters (three to 10 feet) above tide level were possible along some coastal areas of Hawaii, Chile, Japan and the Solomon Islands.
Kamchatka Governor Vladimir Solodov had earlier said: “Today’s earthquake was serious and the strongest in decades of tremors.”
Several people in the region sought medical assistance following the quake, Oleg Melnikov, regional health minister told Russia’s Tass state news agency.
“Unfortunately, there are some people injured during the seismic event. Some were hurt while running outside, and one patient jumped out of a window. A woman was also injured inside the new airport terminal,” Mr Melnikov said.
Russia’s Tass news agency reported from the biggest city nearby, Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, that many people ran out into the street, while cabinets toppled inside homes, mirrors were broken, cars swayed on roads and balconies on buildings shook noticeably.
Power outages and mobile phone service failures were also reported in the capital of the Kamchatka region.
The first tsunami wave hit the coastal area of Severo-Kurilsk, the main settlement on Russia’s Kuril Islands in the Pacific, according to the local governor Valery Limarenko.
He said residents were safe and staying on high ground until the threat of a repeat wave was gone.
A regional branch of Russia’s geophysical service has said that “significant, noticeable” aftershocks with magnitudes of up to 7.5 after expected to continue for at least another month.
Japan issued a tsunami warning, saying it expects waves as high as three metres to arrive along large coastal areas along the Pacific Ocean.
Image: Waves off the coast of the Hokkaido Prefecture in Japan after the tsunami warning was issued. Pic: AP
It has ordered the evacuation of some areas.
The National Tsunami Warning Center, based in Alaska, issued a tsunami warning for parts of the Alaska Aleutian Islands.
A tsunami warning also was extended to the US state of Hawaii, with the National Weather Service’s Pacific Tsunami Warning Center saying a tsunami from the quake had been generated that could cause damage along the coastlines of all the Hawaiian islands.
A tsunami “watch” was issued for portions of the West Coast, including California, Oregon, and Washington.
The US Geological Survey said the earthquake was shallow at a depth of 19.3 km (12 miles), and was centred about 125 km (80 miles) east-southeast of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, a city of 165,000 along the coast of Avacha Bay. It revised the magnitude up twice from 8.0 and 8.7 to 8.8 earlier.
Meanwhile, New Zealand’s disaster management agency has warned that the country’s coastal areas could expect “strong and unusual currents and unpredictable surges at the shore”.
In a national advisory alert, Civil Defence New Zealand said there was no immediate need to evacuate but said citizens should stay away from beaches and shore areas.
This breaking news story is being updated and more details will be published shortly.
Donald Trump has claimed billionaire paedophile Jeffrey Epstein “stole” prominent accuser Virginia Giuffre and other young women from his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida.
Ms Giuffre became a household name after she sued Prince Andrew for sexual abuse in August 2021 – saying he had sex with her when she was 17 and had been trafficked by his friend Epstein.
Mr Trump made his remarks about Ms Giuffre as his administration has faced growing pressure in recent weeks, including from within his “MAGA” base, to release files related to Epstein after he promised to do so during his 2024 presidential campaign.
The US president was speaking to reporters on Tuesday when he was asked about comments he made over the weekend about a falling-out with Epstein over employees taken from his business.
“He took people that worked for me. And I told him, ‘Don’t do it anymore.’ And he did it,” Mr Trump told reporters while on board Air Force One as he returned to the US from Scotland.
“I said, ‘Stay the hell out of here’,” the US president added.
Image: Prince Andrew and Virginia Giuffre in 2001. Pic: Shutterstock
Pressed about whether any of the employees he referred to were young women, Mr Trump said many of them worked in the spa at Mar-a-Lago.
“The answer is yes, they were in the spa,” he said. “I told him, I said, ‘Listen, we don’t want you taking our people, whether it was spa or not spa.’ … And he was fine. And then not too long after that, he did it again.”
Asked if Ms Giuffre was one of the employees poached by Epstein, the US president replied: “I think she worked at the spa… I think so. I think that was one of the people. He stole her, and by the way, she had no complaints about us, as you know, none whatsoever.”
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
1:09
Trump dismisses Epstein ‘witch hunt’
The White House said in a statement last week that Mr Trump banned Epstein from Mar-a-Lago because he was acting like a “creep”.
Epstein took his own life in a Manhattan prison cell in August 2019 as he awaited trial on sex trafficking charges.
On Tuesday, lawyer’s for his former girlfriend Ghislaine Maxwell, who is serving 20 years in prison for recruiting young girls for the financier, said that they are open to her answering more questions from US Congress if she is granted immunity from future prosecution.
However a spokeswoman for the House Oversight Committee, which requested the interview with Maxwell, said the panel would not consider granting the immunity she requested.
Image: Undated picture of Ghislaine Maxwell with Jeffrey Epstein. File pic: US Department of Justice
The former British socialite was interviewed inside a Florida courthouse by US Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche last week.
Officials have not publicly disclosed what she said.
Mr Blanche had earlier said that Maxwell would be interviewed because of Mr Trump’s directive to gather and release any credible evidence about others who may have committed crimes in relation to the Epstein case.
Separately, Maxwell’s lawyers have urged the Supreme Court to review her conviction, saying she did not receive a fair trial.
They also say that one way she would testify “openly and honestly, in public”, is in the event of a pardon by Mr Trump, who has told reporters that such a move is within his rights but that he has not been not asked to make it.
Image: Virginia Giuffre in 2019. File pic: AP
What had Ms Giuffre said about Mar-a-Lago?
Ms Giuffre, who took her own life in April, claimed Maxwell spotted her while she was working as a spa attendant at Mar-a-Lago when she was a teenager in 2000.
She added that Maxwell hired her as Epstein’s masseuse, which led to sexual abuse.
She accused Epstein of pressuring her into having sex with powerful men.
Why is the Epstein case such a problem for Trump?
Rumours have circulated since Epstein’s death about who he may have supplied underage girls to and who visited his private island.
Some of those rumours quickly spiralled into conspiracy theories, which Mr Trump fanned the flames of during his campaign for a second term.
Mr Trump promised to release more Epstein files to the public if he was elected president for a second time – but is now facing a backlash from his voter base after carrying out a complete U-turn on the move.