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Economists immediately started scratching their heads when Donald Trump raised his tariffs placard in the Rose Garden on Wednesday. 

On that list he detailed the rate the US believes it is being charged by each country, along with its response: A reciprocal tariff at half that rate.

So, take China for example. Donald Trump said his team had run the numbers and the world’s second-largest economy was implementing an effective tariff of 67% on US imports. The US is responding with 34%.

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How did he come up with that 67%? This is where things get a bit murky. The US claims it studied its trading relationship with individual countries, examining non-tariff barriers as well as tariff barriers. That includes, for example, regulations that make it difficult for US exporters.

However, the actual methodology appears to be far cruder. Instead of responding to individual countries’ trade barriers, Trump is attacking those enjoying large trade surpluses with the US.

A formula released by the US trade representative laid this bare. It took the US’s trade deficit in goods with each country and divided that by imports from that country. That figure was then divided by two.

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So, in the case of China, which has a trade surplus of $295bn on total US exports of $438bn, that gives a ratio of 68%. The US divided that by two, giving a reciprocal tariff of 34%.

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PM will ‘fight’ for deal with US

This is a blunt measure which targets big importers to the US, irrespective of the trade barriers they have erected. This is all part of Donald Trump’s efforts to shrink the country’s deficit – although it’s US consumers who will end up paying the price.

But what about the small number of countries where the US has a trade surplus? Shouldn’t they actually be benefiting from all of this?

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That includes the UK, with whom the US has a surplus (by its own calculations) of $12bn. By its own reciprocal tariff formula, the UK should be benefitting from a “negative tariff” of 9%.

Instead, it has been hit by a 10% baseline tariff. Number 10 may be breathing a sigh of relief – the US could, after all, have gone after us for our 20% VAT rate on imports, which it takes issue with – but, by Trump’s own measure, we haven’t got off as lightly as we should have.

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Hundreds of jobs at risk as The Original Factory Shop launches survival plan

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Hundreds of jobs at risk as The Original Factory Shop launches survival plan

Nearly 1,000 jobs could be under threat at The Original Factory Shop (TOFS), one of Britain’s largest discount retailers, as part of a survival plan which centres on plans for swingeing rent cuts.

Sky News has learnt that Modella Capital, the new owner of TOFS, has drawn up plans to renegotiate rents at 88 of the company’s 178 stores.

The proposals are contained in a company voluntary arrangement (CVA), a last-ditch restructuring process, which was launched on Thursday.

TOFS employees are said to have been briefed on the plans.

The chain sells beauty brands such as L’Oreal, the sportswear label Adidas and DIY tools made by Black & Decker.

It employs about 2,000 people, with a proportion of its 176 head office and warehouse employees understood to be facing redundancy.

Creditors will be asked to vote on the plans at a meeting in mid-May.

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The CVA is being handled by Interpath Advisory.

Although there are no definite store closures, people familiar with the plans said half of TOFS’ estate was at risk if landlords did not agree to the rent demands.

It is the second such brutal restructuring to be launched by a Modella Capital-owned retailer this week.

Sky News revealed on Tuesday that Hobbycraft, which the investor also owns, is also launching a CVA which would entail the closure of nine shops.

Hundreds of jobs could be at risk there too if rent cuts are not acceded to.

The blueprint risks becoming a controversial one for Modella and for WH Smith, which has just agreed the sale of its high street arm to the investment firm.

Retail insiders believe a similar restructuring is inevitable at WH Smith, which Modella has said will be renamed in town centres as TG Jones.

“In response to the challenging retail environment of the last year, The Original Factory Shop (TOFS) has today announced a proposed Company Voluntary Arrangement (CVA) in order to protect the future of TOFS as a business and to allow it to flourish in the future,” a statement from the company said.

“Under TOFS’ plan, which will be subject to a vote by the company’s creditors on May 14, TOFS will adjust its store estate (by, where possible, renegotiating the leases on a number of its stores that are loss-making), return to the deal-centric stock and purchasing strategy it is famous for, invest in online channels, and re-align its support centre and logistics operations.

“All employees have been informed of the CVA proposal.

“A redundancy consultation will begin with employees in those TOFS stores where the company is seeking to renegotiate the lease, in the event that those negotiations are not successful.

“There will also be a reduction in the number of employees in the company’s Head Office and Warehouse in Burnley.

“There will be no change in the day-to-day running of the business while this plan is implemented, and management will keep all TOFS colleagues updated as the process continues.

“While these changes are necessary, TOFS remains committed to serving our loyal customers across the UK.

“Our plan aims to put the business on sustainable footing, protecting as many jobs as possible, and allowing us to return to offering the exceptional value and deals our customers expect from us.”

TOFS, which was founded in 1969, was bought by the private equity firm Duke Street in 2007.

Duke Street had tried to sell the business before, having supported it through the COVID-19 pandemic with a cash injection of more than £10m.

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Nandy to sign off appointment of Kogan as top football referee

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Nandy to sign off appointment of Kogan as top football referee

Lisa Nandy, the culture secretary, is to sign off the appointment of a chair of English football’s new referee within days.

Sky News has learnt that David Kogan, a media industry veteran who has helped negotiate a string of television rights deals across the sport in recent decades, is to be formally approved as chair of the Independent Football Regulator (IFR).

Whitehall sources said an announcement could be made by the Department for Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS) as soon as this week, although they added that the timetable could slip by a few days.

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Once approved, Mr Kogan is expected to face a committee of MPs for a confirmation hearing early next month, the sources added.

Sky News revealed last weekend that Mr Kogan had emerged as the frontrunner for the post after an earlier shortlist of three candidates was passed over.

The new regulator has the firm backing of Sir Keir Starmer, and is a key element of legislation currently passing through Parliament.

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Mr Kogan, whose boardroom roles have included a directorship at state-owned Channel 4, was initially approached during a previous recruitment process launched under the last Conservative administration.

He has some links to Labour, having in the past donated money to a number of individual parliamentary candidates, chairing LabourList, the independent news site, and writing two books about the party.

Mr Kogan has had extensive experience at the top of English football, having advised clients including the Premier League, English Football League, Scottish Premier League and UEFA on television rights contracts.

Last year, he acted as the lead negotiator for the Women’s Super League and Championship on their latest five-year broadcasting deals with Sky – the immediate parent company of Sky News – and the BBC.

His current roles include advising the chief executives of CNN, the American broadcast news network, and The New York Times Company on talks with digital platforms about the growing influence of artificial intelligence on their industries.

In recent months, Sky News has disclosed the identities of the shortlisted candidates for the role, with former Aston Villa FC and Liverpool FC chief executive Christian Purslow one of three candidates who made it to a supposedly final group of contenders.

Secretary of State for Culture, Media and Sport Lisa Nandy attends a roundtable meeting with British Prime Minister Kier Starmer at Number 10 Downing Street on March 31, 2025. Prime Minister Keir Starmer is hosting a roundtable on adolescent safety with the creators of the television show 'Adolescence,' in discussion with charities and young people about issues raised in the show. Jack Taylor/Pool via REUTERS
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Secretary of State for Culture, Media and Sport Lisa Nandy. File pic: Reuters

The others were Sanjay Bhandari, who chairs the anti-racism football charity Kick It Out, and Professor Sir Ian Kennedy, who chaired the new parliamentary watchdog established after the MPs expenses scandal.

The apparent hiatus in the appointment of the IFR’s £130,000-a-year chair threatened to reignite speculation that Sir Keir was seeking to diminish its powers amid a broader clampdown on Britain’s economic watchdogs.

Both 10 Downing Street and the Department for Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS) have sought to dismiss those suggestions, with insiders insisting that the IFR will be established largely as originally envisaged.

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The creation of the IFR, which will be based in Manchester, is among the principal elements of legislation now progressing through parliament, with Royal Assent expected before the summer recess.

The Football Governance Bill has completed its journey through the House of Lords and will be introduced in the Commons shortly, according to the DCMS.

The regulator was conceived by the Tories in the wake of the furore over the failed European Super League project, but has triggered deep unrest in parts of English football.

Its creation forms part of a process that represents the most fundamental shake-up in the oversight of English football in the game’s history.

The establishment of the body comes with the top tier of the professional game gripped by civil war, with Abu Dhabi-owned Manchester City at the centre of a number of legal cases with the Premier League over its financial dealings.

The Premier League is also keen to agree a long-delayed financial redistribution deal with the EFL before the regulator is formally launched, although there has been little progress towards that in the last year.

“We do not comment on speculation,” a DCMS spokesperson said when asked about the impending announcement of Mr Kogan as the IFR chair.

“No appointment has been made and the recruitment process for [IFR] chair is ongoing.”

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Trade war: UK car exporter’s shares slump to four-year low

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Trade war: UK car exporter's shares slump to four-year low

A UK-based car distributor has seen its shares hit a four-year low after reporting a fall in sales and warning of hits ahead from Donald Trump’s trade war.

Inchcape, which exports cars for manufacturers across more than 40 countries globally, saw its stock lose up to 16.9% in early trading on Wednesday after its first quarter trading update.

It told investors that while it was not currently experiencing damage from the Trump administration’s 25% tariffs on all US car imports, revenue fell by 5% over the three months to March to £2.1bn.

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Inchcape reported a resilient performance from its Americas division but struggles in its Asia-Pacific and European markets.

The period was dominated by trade war fears generally as the US president’s second term got under way and was marked by a surge in demand for goods in the US in a bid to beat any tariffs he threatened to impose.

Inchcape blamed the revenue decline on a strong comparable period in 2024 and “mixed market momentum”, led by that dash for shipments to the US to beat the imposition of any additional US duties.

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They were universally imposed earlier this month, but Mr Trump has since signalled that some exemptions may soon be applied.

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Jobs fears as Jaguar halts shipments

There are fears that a prolonged period of trade disruption could result in job losses within the UK car industry and its supply chain.

Inchcape reaffirmed its 2025 guidance but said that excluded any impacts from tariffs.

Its actions to mitigate the effects included a focus on costs and inventory.

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Chief executive Duncan Tait said: “Demand is not currently being impacted by the tariff situation, although we do expect to see potential impacts on supply from our OEMs (original equipment manufacturers), the competitive environment, and market demand.

“We are taking proactive steps to support our key stakeholders, including taking a conservative approach to managing inventory levels, ensuring we remain disciplined on costs, focusing on cash generation and maintaining our strong balance sheet.”

Shares had recovered some poise by mid-morning, trading down by just over 7% following the initial slump.

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